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Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Who is this S2 Underground guy? A lot of videos are, uh, interesting and I think will probably put me on a list somewhere if I start watching them.

In regards to NATO sentiment, here in Austria to no ones suprise joining NATO is still unpopular. However, there is a lot of talk about getting serious about the defense of the EU and some sort of formal EU defense force.

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Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
What are those flags they are holding up?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
A Russian refugee camp is still better than being in an active warzone. It makes sense to open corridors to those areas instead of trying to coordinate convoys across the entire country and hoping a few buses full of civilians don't get blown up.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
The Russians want people out of the cities, or at least it viewed as they left so anyone remaining is considered hostile.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
My bet is they have to get somewhere near the front (everywhere is the front in Ukraine) to unclog the mess that they may or may not have been planning for.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Someone has to be tracking these Chechens the moment they start massing up and leaving Chechnya. And by the amount of videos from them being posted I am going to bet their OPSEC is not the best.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

psydude posted:

^^German for finger is... finger.

If I'm honest, this is more of an example of where the West was lying supine while Russia rose. Germany is just the most glaring example of a NATO country happily turning a blind eye to the Eastern kleptocrats (the UK and US are also guilty of harboring tons of that sweet sweet plundered wealth). If anything, it means the West should have been more proactive in managing the post-Soviet states from a diplomatic and economic policy perspective. The DSA's statement, though, was explicitly blaming NATO for warmongering.

The elites in Russia were happy to steal and rob from their own people, and the elites in the West were happy take their money. Now, mostly innocent people are paying for that in Ukraine.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
My favorite German body part word, Zahnfleisch. How can one go wrong with Tooth Meat?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
It would not make much sense for Russians to mine their own approaches, as well as mining roads during/prior to offensive maneuvers. And if they were Ukrainian, I doubt the intended target was civilians fleeing. I do know the Russians have and do airdrop anti personel mines, but I do not know how feasible or if they have the capibility to air drop anti tank/vehicle mines.

Not trying to defend Russian actions here, just highlighting how diffilcult and dangerous it is trying to move civilians out of a highly non-permissive enviroment.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
After the 2014, Ukraine made a declaration in regards to that treaty basically saying until the Russians are gone they will not abide by it. But again, this applies to anti personel mines and not anti tank mines. I am not sure which were used against the civilians and I am not sure which direction/route they were fleeing to.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
If Russia can do little green men, why is it NATO cannot do little green fighter jets?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Radio War Nerd (highly recommended) just had an episode about the sanctions https://podcastaddict.com/episode/136535208 , basically it seems devastating for the Russians but they have been preparing for this and there is a lot going on behind the scenes that we just do not hear about or most are not aware of. I am not familiar with the guest, and at times he seems a bit apologetic towards Putin, so I would be interested in any criticisms people have about him and what he is saying.


While on the Podcast front, the following have been putting out a lot of good content lately on the war in Ukraine.

https://warontherocks.com/podcasts/
https://mwi.usma.edu/category/podcasts/ - Current good one on No Fly Zones.
https://play.acast.com/s/warcollege

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
You have to listen to the podcast, it is long (80 min). He mentions while the Russians may not have foreseen the severity and speed of the sactions, they are still in position to wait it out.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

GD_American posted:

He gave the plausible excuse of "I'm shutting up because I got it so wrong", which also has the neat side effect of keeping him alive

What did he get wrong?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

KitConstantine posted:

Looks like the Russians are gonna gently caress around with an amphibious landing in Odesa
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/st...ingawful.com%2F
I wonder what they will find out?

Perhaps that the water is 2 degrees Celsius? Or that the air is 0 Celsius? Whomst can say

As of yesterday it was said the Russian Army currently could not reach Odessa by land without severly exposing themselves and outrunning their logistics. So if they do perform an amphibious landing anytime soon it will most likely be unsupported. I am not sure they even have partial air superiority there. I cannot imagine them actually doing something so risky in light of all the f ups the past few weeks.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
The window to launch any counter-offensive is soon closing. The next few weeks will be warm and sunny with temps not dropping below freezing at night, the North/East of the country is going to turn into a giant mud puddle. This also means the Russians have to try and close of Kyiv soon if the do intend on assaulting and taking the city. Otherwise they will be facing an even better equiped, manned, and prepared defense on all fronts.




Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
I mean artillery can and should be highly accurate nowadays. YOLOing rocket pods from your heli not so much.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Yeah, John Walker Lindh is/was a diehard. A few years back he wrote a letter to the press basically stating how awesome ISIS is...

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Russian artillery has been one of the few areas of the Russian military that has remained quite effective since the war began.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

A.o.D. posted:

A perfect example of Russian jurisprudence calvinball: Conscripts cannot be deployed outside of Russia, so in order to get around that Russia annexes regions they don't fully control, and in one case they don't even control the capital of. The law still remains, but the practice has rendered the right meaningless, as conscripts can now be deployed to invade a sovereign nation.

While I do not doubt that there are or have been conscripts in the occupied/annexed regions, has there been any reliable reporting on numbers there? Anecdottaly, I have seen a lot of videos of Russians being captured and I do not recall seeing many of them being of conscript age. It is also possible the Russian command have not thrown the lot of them to the front line and instead they are more regulated for rear echelon duties.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

Victis posted:

You haven't seen guys 18-27 (older for prior military mobilized)? Or do you think there is somehow a glut of contract soldiers still alive and doing all the fighting? I wasn't even aware that mobiks dying in Ukraine was up for debate

lmao where do you think the guys mobilized in September 2022 went??

Geopolitics Decanted just posted this on the current situation in Ukraine. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraines-offensive-has-begun-analysis-with-michael/id1614010500?i=1000616105932


Towards the end of the podcast they bring up the question of why we are not seeing conscripts in Ukraine, and Koffmans view is that it would still be an extremely unpopular decision by the Kremlin combined with the fact that there still has been no official declaration of war
The other reason(s) being that they are needed in support roles and that once finished with their conscription they can simply be called up the next day as a Mobik.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
It is being reported by western media that brigade size actions are already taking place, thats a little heavy for recon by fire. But you are correct as in we will not know much for several weeks unless a major breakthrough/defeat occurs and just snippets of video that each side decides to release. This offensive will probably resemble that of the Kherson offensive, a slow grind with bite and hold tactics. God willing there is a breakthrough, but Russia still has a lot dudes with guns to throw at the Ukrainians.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
If a PMC refuses to follow orders is it still mutiny? The Russian MoD just has to stop sending Wagner money and supplies, not sure what Prigozhin can do about that.

It comes down to if Prigozhin's men are loyal enough to possibly face prison or being shot vs signing a contract and probably receiving a little less pay.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Where are you seeing this video?
If it is/was true, one would think Ukraine would be posting and talking about it a lot, especially towards the Russians.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
There are definitely things the US / West should and could of done better after the fall of the Soviet Union to prevent this. However, it was Russians who looted and stole from their own countrymen after the fall of the USSR and it is Putin/Russians today who launched a war of aggression against a neighbouring 'brotherly' country.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
If I was a commander on the ground and a had a lot of spare explosives and old tanks that barely functioned I would probably do the same. You can tell your higher ups you launched your attack and your men will probably appreciate not being thrown at Ukrainian defenses.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
The amount of Ukrainian mechanized/armored assaults being posted on Reddit seems to be increasing, and the amount of AP/AT mines they are hitting is ridiculous. I gather the entirety of the Russian defensive line is just one single multi kilometer deep minefield. Does the US/NATO even have enough mine clearing equipment for that task? Because it is clear the Ukrainians do not even have close enough.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
I would definitely have that little guy lead the way down the trench.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
Quick google search says they are the only brigade to receive Challengers... Plus a slew of other news articles about them having them. Do you know something they do not?

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

The Door Frame posted:

I occasionally watch their updates, and completely ignoring the content of this recent video, one image really sticks in my head above any other claim because it's not acknowledged. We all hear that Russian recruiting standards for military service basically don't exist anymore, but it's a little crazy that we can be shown potbellied uncle Stanislav and be expected to take it as read that he is actually a front line combat marine of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry that was deployed on an offensive operation

I know that the service ages you quick and it's not exactly a flattering image, but the current CJCS looks more fit for combat duty and he's so old that I'm not sure how he hasn't been forced to retire

It wouldn't surprise me to learn that he is 100% who he is claimed to be, but it is honestly hard to grapple with the idea that the manpower situation could be bad enough to send this guy on the ground to re-take an objective

I can see old timers who were previously active duty in said unit(s) getting on board the support mother Russia train. I doubt Russian recruiters are going to deny someone with experience like that, even if the do not meet physical standards. I believe Russia also has a similar system as the US ready reserve, (previous active/guard who can still pass basic physical/psychological requirements getting mobilized in times of war).


The US called up the ready reserve in 2003-2004, and there were 50+ year old previous active duty personnel being put into combat units.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
It has been the largest Russian attack since the offensives in and around Bakhmut last winter, and I do not doubt that it will later be verified to be larger. However, it seems the DNR 1st Corps has played a large role in this, so while it is Russian equipment getting wrecked it is probably Ukrainians mostly doing the dying.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

knox_harrington posted:

Austria as a country is very pro-Russia and the government is heavily infiltrated by Russian agents. So yeah I would treat reports coming out of there with heavy scepticism.

https://www.ft.com/content/bd74a542-3ce3-44de-a93a-36dc5929912b

There are elements of the Austrian government (FPÖ & ÖVP parties) that have had strong relations with Putin/Russia partly due to old fashioned corruption and in part historical reasons. As a country however, Austria is not pro Russian. There has been more vocal push back against Russian oligarchs who spend a lot of time here and the general corruption caused by Russian influences. But similar to most countries, getting rid of the rot is not an easy task.

Oberst Reisner, whom initially sparked Austria chat, is by all accounts pro Ukrainian/NATO and represents a strong faction of the Austrian military that wants to move in that direction. There are of course the generals who most would rather spend their time hunting goats in military areas rather than think about the war in Ukraine and probably care little for what Reisner has to say. Unfortunately I cannot find any videos from him that are well translated, and the captions are not worth reading when translated. But he is a good source of info if you know german.

All that being said, Austrian support (they have sent both government and private humanitarian aid) or lack of it, is not going to make a discernible difference on the war. Also, because of those historical and unfortunately current ties, Austria, by sticking to its neutrality, is one of the few countries that has open channels to Putin and hopefully is sharing that info with its European partners.

And only children and tourists eat pommes with their schnitzel.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

PurpleXVI posted:

Yeah, Orban started taking a nicer, but still unacceptable, tack on EU matters after that came to the fore. God I would LOVE for them to strip Hungary of voting rights, just peel him layer by layer like the fat rotting onion he is until there's nothing left.

There are a couple issues with Orban and Hungary. Much as most EU citizens like to see finiancial support for their country from the EU, they really dislike any real or perceived interference, and when the EU presses Orban and he pushes back, his base digs in for him. A brain drain is also taking place in Hungary, as many young and/or capable people move to other EU countries for better wages. So we have the base that is likely to oppose Orban and his policies leaving, while his supporters staying and helping Orban further fortify his own position. Anecdotally, I have spoken with many Hungarian expats, and while they are not exactly proud and supportive of Orban, they do like seeing their country in a strong position, and thus kindly step to the sidelines.

I do believe Orban is overplaying his hand, but the EU is not going to win by threatening him or Hungary. Or maybe at least more carrot and less stick.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

The Ukrainians are not taking as many casualties and vehicles losses around Avdiivka compared to Bakhmut. Forbes is claiming 12 to 1 in tanks and, and I have seen ranges from 15 to 1, to 10 to 1 in troops. In addition, as with Bakhmut, losing Avdiivka is no strategic defeat for the Ukrainians, and simply lets the Russians say they control the Donbas. And once they have it, the Russian troops get to look forward to the next line of prepared Ukrainian defences.

Dick Ripple fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Feb 14, 2024

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

DiomedesGodshill posted:

What a loving clown. Why do people watch this clown?

I listened to the entire podcast. Having never really watched or listened to Tucker before, he just comes across as someone who should not be in the position/career he is let alone interviewing Putin, he just said some things about Russia and its history that were false, like the Germans surrounding Moscow in WW2. He would of been fine being some local news reporter.

The only real interesting and noteworthy part of the interview is Lex saying he has been in contact with Putins people about a possible interview.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

Qtotonibudinibudet posted:

i mean, they didn't encircle it, but those giant tank traps you see on the drive in from the airport are there for a reason

Maybe I am being a bit pedantic. But the difference between encirclement and reaching the outskirts of Moscow could of led to a very different world we are in today.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
They could be trying to evac the Russian Legion troops who have been reported fighting in the area the past few days. There have been several videos of them supposedly surrounded and on the recieving end of a lot Russian ordnance yesterday, maybe they thought it was a good time to get out. I doubt the Ukrainians have plans to breakthrough Belgogod in order to surround the Russian army in Ukraine.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

CommieGIR posted:

Not to doubt Mike but they don't seem actually capable of any real gains in advancing, so I don't know how that comes across as 'fighting fine'

His point was that Russians still seem motivated (and not always through fear) to go on the offense. And there are a lot of instances of them committing suicide rather being captured or wait to be rescued.

I like when he brought up how they are intercepting a lot of phone calls from wives/girlfriends urging their loved one to sign up for these assault battalions for the bonus pay.

Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021

CommieGIR posted:

But as far as we know they haven't been paying out at all.

And being motivated to go on the offensive does not mean being effective at an offensive. Mysteriously it has not turned into major gains for the Russian military.

In regards to pay, hopefully that is the case as not paying the people with weapons can cause problems. I also wonder why the Ukrainians are not paying their soldiers more to increase numbers, as that is reported to being the primary factor for Russian recruiting numbers.


And as most armies learned in WW1, the machine gun > elan. But it does pose a problem for Ukraine, in that Russian soldiers in aggregate have good and/or sufficient morale.

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Dick Ripple
May 19, 2021
I wonder who in the White House said that... It has been reported that Gazprom and other Russian owned oil/gas firms have been helping pay for the war (salaries, reconstruction, ect.) effort directly. Which I am sure they have not budgeted for, and could be a large reason why so many executives have been commiting suicide lately.

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