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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Fuckin' OMOHs, man.

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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Naked Bear posted:

The Javelin is currently the best man-portable anti-tank weapon on planet Earth. Up until now, it hasn't seen much real anti-armor use and certainly not against a near-peer adversary like Russia.

e: I am a slow poster.

There's also value in the sense that every T-80U that gets destroyed is more classified tech that Russia has to then go out of its way to recover or sanitize in a war zone. Pretty sure we wouldn't mind getting our hands on some ruined hulls for metallurgical analysis in exchange for guns and money.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
The Russians had enough time to track F-22s over Syria to know how/what to look for. Given that we know they've got S-400 batteries in place I don't think we'd want to roll those dice.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Naked Bear posted:

Let's not forget, too, about the F-117 and U-2 being shot down.

The F-117 got got because we flew predictable routes and they used some clever jerry-rigged emitter setup that allowed them to triangulate the whereabouts of the jet (but not radiate long enough to eat a HARM) to launch a volley of SA-3s at him.

Supposedly a *second* F-117 got damaged *after* the 3/27/99 incident but was able to make it back to base.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Marshal Prolapse posted:

I think it was also the profile against the moon if I’m remembering correctly. It didn’t help that the pilot was a total douche bag if I remember…Scott O’Grady dipshit and chud.

The F-117 pilot and the dude most chiefly responsible for shooting him down became friends, actually. I've not met a *lot* of Nighthawk pilots, only two, actually, but neither of them were anything but top shelf Grade A dudes. You've gotta have a lot of confidence to be a doorkicker flying a plane that can only fly subsonic and has a tendency to turn into a cartwheeling Dorito chip when it's hit.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Zamujasa posted:

My zero-knowledge take is that the US is trying to stay largely uninvolved so that we don't aggro Russia, because Putin is a dope in control of more nukes than he has brain cells.

I'm far more concerned about the potential use of chemical weapons.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Untagged posted:

It's being noted that there have been Stratotankers loitering off the Polish border. Likely for regional U.S./NATO movements. But it's hard not to wonder ... can MiG's get mid-air refueling from Boeing hardware :nsa:?

I'd imagine it'd entail retrofitting the usual Iron Maiden with a Russian drogue, but if they're not used to refueling, that might be more of a liability than a benefit. To say nothing of the potential for escalation or hazarding the tanker.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

MA-Horus posted:

Wonder if someone nabbed a TU22M, that'd be a good kill.

Taking this back, as someone said something in another thread that made me rethink posting about the potential deaths of people being forced to do this poo poo.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Feb 25, 2022

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

"We'll just have our own competition! With blackjack, and HOOKERS!" :argh:

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Stultus Maximus posted:

The Russian military philosophy has always been "we have a fuckton of people to throw at the enemy"

Unfortunately one thing they don't have is funds.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

That's what it looks like when you hit a POL depot.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
It's more difficult to tell where the sounds are coming from, but if you want a livecam that gives you the best split: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ayv7DmYbOg

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Remember, that man had TS/SCI clearance and the Oval Office on speed dial. :shepface:

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

CBJSprague24 posted:

What was the last time a major world power hosed up an invasion this badly? They've had a ton of armor, aircraft, vehicles, and manpower destroyed/killed and they haven't even gotten to Kyiv yet, which sounds like it's going to be an urban warfare hellscape for whatever actually gets there.

It's still David vs. Goliath, but holy poo poo.

The First Italo-Ethiopian War comes to mind. The Second Italo-Ethiopian War was "all war crimes, all the time" so the Italians won that one, but not without five figures' worth of dead and anywhere from 40-100k wounded.

Oh, and of course, the Soviet invasion of Finland and the Bay of Pigs. :allears:

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Untagged posted:

"Martin Sheen (D-West Wing), has announced he will run for President."

Don't forget he was also Greg Stilson.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

davecrazy posted:

Is C-SPAM so far left that they’ve boomeranged around to supporting a right wing fascist dictator doing an illegal invasion?

Flap the wings hard enough and the feathers on the fringes can touch each other on occasion.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Sentinel posted:

The fact they are still able to contest their airspace against a superpower is really something.

Having a lot of nuclear weapons doesn't make your country a superpower, it just makes you a country with a lot of nuclear weapons. Just a reminder that Russia's collective GDP is half that of California's.

The true measure of a superpower is being able to reliably project its power internationally, and Russia's not doing too well on that front.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

psydude posted:

This is still only a fraction of the crap that Russia actually has, but your point about sanctions is salient. Russia doesn't have its own semiconductor industry, and it relies heavily upon EU countries for basics like steel. With every major country sanctioning it (other than China, who doesn't give a poo poo about Russia and will want to avoid another ZTE fiasco), they're going to have to develop their own capacity. This will take years and billions of dollars, and will probably set them back substantially from both an R&D and O&M perspective.

There's going to be a whole lot of pushback from the people and Duma with regards to replacing lost materiel, as well. My guess is that the bulk of military spending will be put into deterrence.

I've always called it the Gopnik Gambit. That stereotypical tracksuited gangster lifting his jacket to show off the Desert Eagle tucked in the waistband before asking "we have problem?"

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

brains posted:

it's less surprise over ukraine's ability to generate sorties and more about the world's 2nd largest air force's inability to establish air control days after a planned invasion. and then still doing airborne ops in hostile airspace. it's mind boggling.

put another way- russia violated the INF treaty for this

I'm reminded of this clip from The Good Shepherd: https://clip.cafe/the-good-shepherd-2006/soviet-power-a-myth/

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

orange juche posted:

If the US has confirmed a shootdown, then yeah they probably got shot down then. When I saw the tweets it hadn't been substantiated by a third party yet.

Disregard. Also, if you see a picture of an Il-76 ball turret, it's probably from 2014: https://theaviationist.com/2022/02/26/two-il-76s-shot-down-in-ukraine/

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Oh, wonderful: https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/us-official-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-risks-release-of-dangerous-pathogens/

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Pine Cone Jones posted:

I understand shooting those down is a big deal, but how much of a big deal would a loss of 4 be?

The Russian Air Force has hundreds of them.

How many are flightworthy is the real question.

In this particular case the loss of the paratroopers and pilots are more valuable physically and metaphysically as they can't be readily replaced.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Given how civil Ukraine has been thus far, there's a good chance there's not close-ups of the single alleged confirmed downing of a Candid because there might be a lot of gory aftermath.

Also, if it was downed by something other than MANPADS it'd stand to reason Ukraine doesn't want to give Russia free Intel where their Buks are.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

IPCRESS posted:

Has the T-14 been delivered, much less deployed?

Nope. "2023" is the new year it'll be ready.

Don't worry, though. They're still going to pull 2300 out of their asses. *Somehow*.

Same with the PAK-NYET and the Mach 4+ MiG-41.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Taking the wrong lesson from the "GOD WILLS IT" part of Kingdom of Heaven.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Alan Smithee posted:

Dee snider not being a chud is surprising to me for some reason

His congressional testimony is seriously pro-click. They were expecting him to be easy picking for the evening news reel and he shoved it right up their asses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QqplPfYTE8

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Feb 27, 2022

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

CBJSprague24 posted:

Holy gently caress, if true.

No, see, it's a *tactic*! Now they need to divert forces to guard the POWs! Brilliant! A genius move!

:jerkbag:

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
That explosion looks quite a bit like their "FOAB."

https://youtu.be/L_iEXyqItDw

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

"Fine! We'll just invest more money into China! They'd never do anything like this!"

McNally posted:

In this case it's "in for a penny, in for a ruble, and now I have two pennies."

Kopek.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

ZombieApostate posted:

Apparently rubles were only worth a penny before all this kicked off, so maybe wait to buy rubles until tomorrow when everything really goes to poo poo.

Yeah, they were ~0.015 before their markets closed, and 0.012 now after the freeze.

Xakura posted:

bold of you both of assuming the dud rate for russian icbms isn't like 50%, and you have a 6.2% percent chance of surviving.

https://clip.cafe/the-good-shepherd-2006/soviet-power-a-myth/

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
Submariners live with a fate worse than death.

Forgetting their shower shoes.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Proud Christian Mom posted:

Whats hosed up is we know its there, as drones keep hitting it. They just arent using it because ????

The millisecond they radiate, the Rivet Joints and other SIGINT assets will know exactly where they are.

ASAPI posted:

At this rate the Ukrainians are going to come out of this with an upgraded military.

Only if they figure out how to make spare parts.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Hyrax Attack! posted:

I'd worry those guys need to watch for booby traps but uh that would be the least cost-effective bait in the history of warfare.

While I'm guessing every calorie of food is being taken with the Russians whenever they abandon an asset, I do hope someone's reminded the Ukrainians to *never eat or drink anything left behind by Russian forces*.

They got a LOT of Afghanis that way. >.>

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Caconym posted:

But that doesn't matter when the ukrainians have no SEAD surely?

The Ukrainians have SEAD - it's just drone- and ground-based.

The fact that we haven't *yet* seen a proper SAM setup with all the trimmings makes me think the Russians aren't willing to do anything but set up their launchers in fire control radar-only mode, which is how MH17 got got, and honestly makes their AAD just as dangerous to their own assets. It does give them more mobility options, though.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Wasabi the J posted:

Thing about planes is it just takes one stinger.

Bears, Backfires, and Blackjacks would be flying above 30,000 feet. Stingers top out around 12,000 and the engagement envelope at that height is very narrow.

You'd need to break out the good SAMs for them.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Radical 90s Wizard posted:

The slave should just give up and avoid further bloodshed

Sovereignty is *such* a burden. They're really better off being vassals.

:jerkbag:

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

maffew buildings posted:

reserving judgement until the people who said that putin won't invade ukraine tell me why actually this declaration of escalation, much like their nuke forces going high alert, doesnt matter

"Nuclear forces are on high alert" means more drills, more "butt in seat" time, and "Vasily, take your feet off the console."

About ten years ago they made a big deal about how the Minuteman IIIs were no longer pre-targeted. But even with the dated technology it's trivial to re-target them. "Coming off alert" doesn't mean there aren't two missileers in the control room at all times, it just means those two officers are spending a lot of time reading, laying down, and planning for what they're going to do when their DD-214 clears.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 17:45 on Mar 3, 2022

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

CommieGIR posted:

The only significant change to the Russian nuclear forces is their ability to be staged in Belarus now.

And seeing as they've had Iskanders in Kaliningrad for years now isn't much of a change.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Flesnolk posted:

Would you mind elaborating on this? What makes them so good?

Finland and Sweden do what Russia evidently doesn't: train.

I don't know about Finland other than they stacked serious bodies the last time Russia came calling, but Sweden's defense plans are/were so sophisticated that they developed armored vehicles specifically tailored to them, like the Strv 103, which was designed to duck into prepared berms and offer little to no viable forward-facing shots against direct fire. Also, there's quite a lot of "buffer" territory before land forces would get to anything they could even begin to fortify, with a lot of natural and engineered chokepoints they can't go around.

It'd be a nightmare for *any* armed force to try to invade Finland and Sweden from the north, and even worse of one to try amphibious landings as Sweden's submarine forces have been itching to sink Russian tonnage for 50+ years.

Finland has more to worry about since there's only ~100mi between Helsinki and St. Petersburg.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Mar 4, 2022

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BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Pine Cone Jones posted:

I know why, but loving please can we at least do some kind of kinetic action to support Ukraine. I hate sitting here and just watching.

Giving them intel from the RC-135s, Global Hawks, satellites, lethal aid, and :nsa: ain't nothing. If the Russians had even a fraction of the intel capacity we're "donating" to the Ukrainians this would be a MUCH different war.

BIG HEADLINE fucked around with this message at 04:06 on Mar 4, 2022

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