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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Carmant posted:

At this point it’s almost certain that Putin will use his nudes to break the will of the Ukrainians

:hmmyes: that would be terrifying

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Despera posted:

Oh no free healthcare at gunpoint!

Enjoy your new death panels

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

coelomate posted:

What makes me most nervous is the growing consensus that Putin miscalculated with the invasion in Ukraine. That Ukraine resisted harder, the sanctions were tougher, and the west more united than he expected.

So if he miscalculated there... why be certain that he won't miscalculate with respect to WMDs?

Putin clearly believe Russia is strong and should have more of its way in the world order. As his conventional military suffers setbacks, why wouldn't he look to his nuclear arsenal, and a relative willingness to actually use it, as the last way to impose his idea of Russian greatness on the rest of the world?
Well hopefully the tough response to the first miscalculation would make it clearer that he has to be more carful.

That said, yeah, I dunno. Escalting to get their way has cearly been their MO, counting on the other party chickening out. So maybe maybe he'll nuke Kyiv to try to force a surrender and assume that everyone else would be pragmatic and let it be rather than nuke Moscow in return.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

It's eerie to imagine SA during nuclear war. Imagine being one of the leftover goons after 2/3 of the site who live in cities are gone in the initial fireballs. What do you post? I'm not posting I'm incinerated.

"Lol this owns"

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Isn't SA now in the cloud? I thought that's what all the availability zones were for.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Doccers posted:

One thing Russians have proven to be pretty good at, is rockets. *points to ISS*

Plus I think this is where most of their money actually goes to. Well other than the yachts.

Obviously I've no idea what state their poo poo is in, but I wouldn't want to bet on all of them failing. Even if, let's say, 2/3rd of all missiles blow up in their silos, that's still not great.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Volmarias posted:

Yeah, but what's the odds it's MY city? Checkmate libtards :smuggo:

And even if they do hit my city, I'm young and have no co-morbidiries so why should I care

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Outrail posted:

Yeah nice try you're just trying to keep all the thermo-nuclear war to yourself.

Total thermo-nuclear annihilation is like the one thing I missed from the 80s, it's a bummer if we can't bring back now.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
How woud USSR target New Zealand if it's not even on the maps?

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Rappaport posted:

Good news, everybody!



They chickened out, though.
Seems like there's a good opportunity to restart that project!

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

I don't get the deal with wood vs brick building bragging. I grew up in tornado land. American buildings made of wood will calmly collapse if hit. You will probably survive if you take basic precautions. Buildings made of brick will either send your entire family's brains sprawled across the city or just politely mulch you into a red paste. I've literally seen both. It's one of the dumbest USA-Europe rivalries.

Sorry the evidence of brick supremacy is pretty clear.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Zotix posted:

A missile that lands and doesn't work? We saw plenty of those the first few weeks of the invasion.

The point is that even if just 1/100 works, it's going to get very spicy

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

qhat posted:

Whether it's total world calamity or a small blip in the long run, but considering we have no empirical data on the effects of global nuclear conflict on a planetary ecosystem, I think everyone is largely agreed that It's Definitely Not Worth The Risk.

Shouldn't we try it at least once and see what happens? Seems pretty harsh to make a judgement without experiencing it first.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Willo567 posted:

So how come most news sites keep worrying about Russia using nukes after the Donbass are annexed illegally when the strikes in Crimea and in Russian border towns haven't lead to anything?

I'm guessing it drives engagement and/or russian propaganda, because that's what they want everyone to be afraid of without explicitly threatening nuclear fist strikes

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Carmant posted:

What if Putin nuked the moon

It'd be the only good thing he's ever done.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I think the main mistake was much more fundamental. He bought into his own propaganda that Ukraine wasn't real and everyone actually wanted to be russian and was just being held hostage by the nazi Zelenskyy.

The whole plan was built around this assumption, which means you didn't really need a functional army, just do a quick show of force, drive in in parade uniforms, and watch as everyone puts down their weapons and welcomes the dear leader. There was no plan B because they had to be right and would succeed by definition, because russia stronk.

If they had a real idea what this would look like, they almost certainly wouldn't have started it.

E: as for the nuclear stuff. Sure we need to keep it in mind but the pussyfooting because of it has been ridiculous. Giving 80km missiles is ok but oh lordy what would putin do about 300km missiles? :jerkbag:

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Oct 12, 2022

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
I've honestly no idea what Trump would've done. There's IMO a 50/50 split between throwing Ukraine under the bus and initiating a nuclear first strike

Volmarias posted:

This is sort of what happened? Russia annexed parts of Ukraine when they got rid of Yanukovich, because those parts "wanted" to be "free" of western tyranny etc, but those were the parts that were already far more favorably inclined to Russia.

I think this was probably planned on the expectation that Trump would successfully remain in power, effectively neutering most of Nato's military power, and allowing for a strike in early 2021, but then Covid happened.
Well kind of... 8 years ago. There was pretty fierce resistance in the Donbas only limited by the sad state of Ukrainian military at the time (which was a huuuge security concern to russia, I'm sure). This also massively pissed off everyone else not "liberated" by Girkin and his merry band of criminals.

The russians that were actually paying attention and not drinking their koolaid knew this:

quote:

Let's start with the last one. To assert that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime means, in practice, complete ignorance of the military-political situation and the mood of the broad masses of the people in the neighboring state. Moreover, the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic in relation to Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.

It seems that the events in the south-east of Ukraine in 2014 did not teach anyone anything. Then, after all, they also expected that the entire left-bank Ukraine would turn into Novorossia in a single impulse and in a matter of seconds. We have already drawn maps, figured out the personnel of future administrations of cities and regions, and developed state flags.

But even the Russian-speaking population of this part of Ukraine (including such cities as Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Mariupol) did not support such plans in their vast majority. The project "Novorossiya" was somehow imperceptibly blown away and quietly died.
https://nvo-ng-ru.translate.goog/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Knightsoul posted:

The assumption "attacking Ukraine was dumb, Putin is stupid, blah blah blah..." it's really getting old and boring: I think we all should wait for the real end of this war, see who can be considered the winner and only then judgin' what was smart or stupid to do.
The outcome of this war will not change whether Putin is stupid or not. He is (or rather, probably misinformed by his yes-men... which is the same thing, but whatever).

He clearly started this with the assumption that he can win in a week, there was no backup or plan B. He then kept going with dwindling forces until whole fronts started to collapse before changing anything. He would not have started the war if he knew how it would actually go.

E: Imagine America threw another 100-200k people into Vietnam and kept the South from collapsing. It wouldn't have made the whole "domino theory" any less stupid.

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 18:43 on Oct 29, 2022

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Fish of hemp posted:

I've been asking that same question in the other parts of Internet. What would have been the most horrible consequence if Russia would not have started the invasion? It must have been something really terrible because Russia chose war.

Putin would probably be underwater for the next re-election, can't have that

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Volmarias posted:

That's cute, you think the elections matter when he jails his opponents, controls the media, uses the duma as a rubber stamp, and just has people straight up faking ballets during counting on camera.

It ain't the election he's afraid of.

Oh no, but it's more :effort: to fake/suppress and doesn't look good

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
There isn't also a world where russia nukes anything preemptively.

Or if there is, it's not worth worrying about.

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
What's happening here. I thought everyone would be talking abut the nukes in Belarus :)


https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-accuses-ukraine-having-nuclear-ambitions-kcna-2023-04-01/

There's no way Reuters is doing an April's fools about nukes, right!? Lol.

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