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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Finally had a chance to watch. Goodness Maryanne and Tori would be absolutely exhausting to be around, for different reasons.

I think I mostly either like or am neutral on everyone else so far (also I can't actually hate on Maryanne really, to be fair, I just would not be able to function around that). I swear to god I know someone exactly like Jenny from somewhere but I cannot place it in my mind.

Also as an aside, Romeo's shirt in his picture in the OP makes it look like part of his torso is just missing when it's in timg mode.

Oh also I tried to use the steam sign in to join the tribal council game but it just redirects me back to the login screen every time I try to log in.

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Chili posted:

Survivor Fantasy Update!



Tied for first right now are myself and Studio#4031!

Rosters are open now so if you want to switch out any of your picked players for someone you may have overlooked, have at it! Couple of people feel the burn big time in picking both the boots but there's still plenty of survivor left!

I really do want to sign up for this even if I'll be a week behind can someone tell me how to actually make an account there? There's plenty of ways to log in but that does me no good if I don't have an actual account at all.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Chili posted:

You make an account by logging in. Just try and access the site through discord or steam. Though I don't know if you can sign up now that the season has already started. I'm fine with it, just not sure if the site will allow it.

Every time I do this it tells me "there's no account linked to that email address"

Logging in through any of the socials just kicks me back to the login screen

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 07:01 on Mar 11, 2022

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

lol they posted a couple preview videos for tomorrow night and one of them is about how exhausting maryanne is to be around like a bunch of us were speculating

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Studio posted:

Lithium is not a great example though, because as far as I know it's Super Hard and Dangerous to wean someone off of it, and requires testing in like, extreme Survivoresque circumstances. I actually think Jackson could've made it onto a later season had he been more forthcoming about not being able to get off of Lithium, but I'm just watching from the sidelines.

afaik dehydration and undernourishment are both an incredibly bad idea when on lithium which is probably the reason Jackson decided to stop taking it for Survivor

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Daniel being a superfan who thinks he has the whole game figured out and then completely collapsing when faced with social interaction sustains me lol.

I think this is the earliest I've ever seen someone so obviously become a goat but he might be so untrustworthy that he just gets voted out anyway

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Nihonniboku posted:

That's insulting to Angelina.

honestly yeah it really is

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Really digging the Romeo/Drea pair. Them piecing together what was happening and then the editing showing it all falling into place was awesome. I'm glad the editors finally figured out it's ok to not show us every event in chronological order (loved the reveal they did with Naseer's idol last season too).

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

blue squares posted:

It says at the next immunity challenge, not every immunity challenge. Didn't he say it once?

he hasn't said it at all, he's waiting for the other two triggers to be said to not give it away, and I think ideally he doesn't want to say it at all so nobody outside his allies even knows he has it since they just become full idols at the merge

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Nihonniboku posted:

Can anyone explain why the survivor subreddit is currently obsessed with and rooting for Daniel?

most relatable contestant left I assume

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Narcissus1916 posted:

All you need to know about Daniel is that he was on Jeb!'s campaign back in the day.

no wonder his shoulder dislocated so easily

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

aidoru posted:

Why did Daniel go on and on about how awesome it is to be on Survivor but he participated in like one challenge the whole time... thats like half the reason people watch the show

I'd say it was probably related to the doctors telling him that he could cause permanent damage to his shoulder if he re-injured it

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

watching the sneak previews on youtube just hammers home even harder how cool mike is

I'm worried Omar is going to get busted like Swati for playing every side though

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I'm pretty sure the only way is to get the most votes at final tribal

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

SweetJahasus posted:

Poor Romeo sure has lost his edge. I don't totally know how he had such a fall from a position of assumed power but his doom spiral has definitely sunk him. I had anticipated him going far too.

He got too comfortable at the merge and ended up outside the majority

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Can someone remind me exactly how the amulet works so I don't have to look it up. And also who has them.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

ApplesandOranges posted:

Lindsay, Hai and Drea have them. They have to be agreed upon to be used at the same time (kinda like a super idol).

If all three are in the game, they can be combined for an extra vote.

If two of them are in the game, they can be combined for a steal a vote.

If only one is left, it's an idol.

Thank you.

I wonder if Drea can steal one and what happens if she does.

Like does it count as being removed so the other ones remaining gain more power or does it mean there will always be at least two in the game so it can never be an idol.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

ninjahedgehog posted:

This -- I don't mind it pre-merge but this late in the game all it seems to do is give the majority alliance two bites of the apple, which goes against the intention of pretty much every other gimmick on the show.

I mean it's also happened before where the minority becomes the majority in one of the new mini tribes. Or you just have what happened tonight where the majority uses this as an opportunity to take out one of their own because it's easier to swing.

I actually don't like it because of the first thing. Would just be a really lovely way to get voted out if you positioned yourself well in a majority.

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 07:45 on Apr 28, 2022

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I almost did a winner power rankings last week but am glad I decided to wait because I think I would have had a ton of movement.

Explanation on how I rank them: if you take a hypothetical final three from the remaining players, then I expect people in higher tiers to win against those in a lower tier. People in the same tier are a toss up but I still rank them in the order I think they would win even though it's close. These also factor in the potential/likely path they would have to take to get to the end. So using Tori as an example, I'd have put her in tier 1 or 2 last week because everyone kept talking about her as a potential threat and someone they want to get rid of, as well as her ability to create chaos, so surviving all the way to the final would have taken an incredible immunity run or some other impressive plays to boost her case.

Anyway

Tier 1
Hai
Drea
-Liked them both before this week too and I think they both only improved their cases. Drea has a ton of power in the game with her advantages even after playing the idol, Hai is who I think most people see as the leader of the majority alliance. Honestly don't think both of them are going to make it to final five.

Tier 2
Mike
Omar
-Everyone seems to love Mike, and he also still has an idol (though I wonder for how long considering Drea's KiP advantage). He's also never really been in trouble I think? Omar playing both sides is kinda risky but if he can pull it off and get to the end because everyone trusts him I think that gives him a lot of clout in final tribal.

Tier 3
Maryanne
Romeo
Jonathan
Lindsay
-I kind of debated if Lindsay should be in a 4th tier here but I could see her out talking some of the others here. Jonathan I put here not because of what happened at tribal but because he showed before tribal that he really has no mind for strategy. Legitimately wouldn't shock me if he made the finals, honestly. But it also wouldn't shock me if he gets voted out for being a challenge beast still. Maryanne I think still gets left out of too much strategy and Romeo got left outside the majority and has to depend on others (especially Omar) to survive too much.

Curious what anyone else thinks, I mainly just like to do these to see how close I was at the end of the season.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Nihonniboku posted:

I really like Hai a lot, but I worry that people are going to recognize what a threat he is to win like with Ricard last season, and they're going to vote him out sooner or later.

Which is precisely why I think we're going to see people like Maryanne, Romeo, and Lindsay make it far in this game. It seems like people are making the mistake of understanding that people like Romeo are on the bottom, but they're thinking there are bigger threats to get out, so they'll save him for another week.

You can make it to the end of this game by making big waves, or you can do so by making people forget that you're even there. Erika arguably won last season by doing the latter.

yeah, if I were doing rankings on who I think is going to actually win it would be a lot different. Though I might put Drea at the top of that list anyway.

e: also I forgot to mention this earlier but is it just me or does Hai have a nasty infection on one of his shoulders

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

they're probably right, tbh

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

That was a fun episode. Hai's reaction to the votes was great. I'm glad he can go get all the skin falling off his body fixed now.

curiousCat posted:

Sad to see Hai go. Really thought that was going to turn the other way -- I'm shocked they've allowed Jonathan to survive so long.

Jonathan isn't a threat imo. He showed he has no mind for strategy last episode and I don't think the Jury will give him a "wow he won a bunch of immunities" win, unless he's up against two others who have nothing going for them either. Most of the tribe seems to like him though which may work in his advantage.

Anyway here's my updated tiers

Omar
Drea

Lindsay
Mike

Maryanne
Jonathan


Romeo (yes the extra space was intentional)

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Jonathan is actually a valuable ally in that he's always got a good chance to win immunity so your target doesn't.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

sportsgenius86 posted:

Omar loving rules. That is my contribution.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Shneak posted:

Drea getting voted out made me realize she was my favourite player. The juxtaposition between her ‘horror movie’ player persona to the person immediately after getting voted out gave me whiplash.

I can totally understand being a completely different person because you're in game mode like she was.

Anyway I just want to parrot how much do or die is dumb.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Rankings time!

Omar

Lindsey
Mike

Maryanne
Jonathan






Romeo


Not really anything different other than Lindsey continuing to move up. One thing I worry about with Omar is if he gets burned for being kind of a snake and betraying people's trust after what Drea said but I still think he should win against anyone else. Mike and Lindsey were hard to rank but I am going off my gut that people will respect her gameplay a little more than his social game.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

if they wanted to rig the game they can just have production tell her before tribal that Jeff will give her a sign for which box is the right one, something as simple as where he rests his hands or if he taps his fingers, and just cut the edit to not show anything. It doesn't need to involve gadgets and trick lids or hidden compartments in the boxes.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

garthoneeye posted:

I don’t count Jeff knowing which box has the flame as rigging at all. That’s fundamental to the premise of the setup. If Jeff doesn’t know which box holds the flame the probabilities don’t change and it’s much less interesting.

yeah if the host doesn't know the answers it's way less fun

It would be hilarious to see someone die inside if he revealed the flame though

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

STAC Goat posted:

I lost track of advantages. Was Drea's "steal the idol" her shared advantage with Lindsey or a separate one? Did Lindsey just maneuver herself an idol?

I think we're sleeping on her a little. It seemed like she suggested that Mike move to Omar. She's been in a power position this whole game and kept her hands clean. It might be too under the radar, especially if Omar is there at the end, but I think she's played a very good game.

Knowledge is Power (steal an idol) was something she won in a risk your vote thing earlier iirc. But yes Lindsey now has an amulet that is an idol because it's the last one left.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Final five is gonna be hilarious with one immune person and three people with idols.

If the fifth person plays their shot and wins what happens when everyone is immune

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

STAC Goat posted:


Romeo pissed aomeone off because that was a first class clown edit.

Maybe he pissed off the producers by being so boring

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Studio posted:

I wish we'd had a goon on Survivor :allears:. They'd get annihilated by the edit

We did and he was loved enough to get a return season where he won.

Spoiled since I know I saw someone was watching through older seasons.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida


it is yeah, though he is obviously long gone

I think Yau-man also posted here at some point, actually. Or maybe just did an AMA or something

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Saying Lindsay has only been a physical threat is unfair, she wasn't the ringleader Omar or Hai were but she's probably been the most actively strategic of the remaining five. It was her idea to have Mike give Omar his idol to protect it from Drea, after all. Her biggest mistake is hyperfocusing on Jonathan, really, especially once they got down to seven and his inability to strategize was out there.

Anyway, final tier list

Maryanne

Lindsay

Mike
Jonathan

just pretend I put an obnoxious amount of empty lines here

Romeo



Maryanne is going to have the most recent big move when final tribal comes around and recency bias is a big thing, and she's either the most or second most (Mike) liked person around the camp. She also might have to make fire to get there, which I think would wrap it up if she succeeds. I still think Lindsay's combination of physical and strategic prowess is the best remaining in the game, and she was in on most of the big moves before tonight.

Mike and Jonathan will just come down to if people respect social or physical more I think. I feel like if it's those two and Romeo that Mike probably has more "guaranteed" votes on the jury than Jonathan so the mathematical 50/50 between tossups would favor him.

Nobody is going to vote for Romeo lol.

e: actually, Maryanne also has an idol that literally nobody knows about so if she busts it out on final 5 to make another flashy play it's probably a wrap if she's in the finals, so I should just put her in her own tier.

IcePhoenix fucked around with this message at 06:27 on May 19, 2022

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Fast Luck posted:

-The biggest risk with Maryanne's excellent move was it relied on Romeo. That actually was a risk but it worked.

That's the kind of risk that wins you the game though, and she clearly knew it. Or at least the edit framed it that way.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

I'm actually more annoyed than I probably should be that they left that out

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

If that last bit is true maybe he didn't have a chance of winning at all lol

Kind of a weird dichotomy with how Hai and Drea left the game though

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Oh, yeah blame deflectors pretty much always crash and burn at final tribal, don't they?

I suppose if he's getting ousted before the final episode it's a much more entertaining edit to show him how they did instead of closer to how he apparently was acting since it won't really confuse the audience when he gets shredded at FTC.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Maryanne's case is also boosted by a pretty weak final five in terms of game resume

Jonathan's case is entirely in his immunity wins
Mike's case is entirely in his likeability (which is a rough case when sitting next to Maryanne)
Romeo is one of the GOAT goats

Lindsay is really the only one who can challenge her.

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IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Antiquated Pants posted:

I don't understand the case for Jonathan's immunity wins, the dude has barely won any individual challenges, he was beaten by Tori twice, Heather has won a few times, even Omar in this last one. The dude is Aquaman, I'll give you that. If the challenge involves water, he will win it, but everything else really seems impossible for him. He's only ever won immunity when there were two winners, granted the water balance one he won first place, and he's never won an individual reward challenge and his strategy has been laughable (and noticed by everyone). Jonathan is a goat, IMO, bring his bulky-rear end to the end alongside Romeo.

He won last week in the Jesus Challenge against Lindsay

But otherwise I agree with you! People always prop up the challenge beast as a threat but that only matters when they have a game outside it and he does not. I've been saying for weeks that he's a super valuable asset because he can potentially keep immunity off of your actual target.

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