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Willa Rogers posted:Here's the NYT writeup of the economic news that Leon's been summarizing: https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1513885182914449417?t=JVd1OH-HW1mrqc4Progt2A&s=19 Core only dropped because used cars going down slightly dragged that number down. It is a heavily weighted part of the calculations. This was previewed by manheim last night. Cargurus.com is showing that price decrease stopped March 21st and has since reversed.  Services inflation expanded again. Jot a good sign if you want inflation to cool. Typically that section lags goods about 6 months. We should see it continue to be high into August or September. Rent in the cpi report is once again 12 points lower than all independent reporting agencies claim. Redfin has rent at 17% for March. Rent is always different due to how the BLS measures it. Rent is also a lagging indicator and for every month housing prices rise add 6 months. We "lucked out" with the China lockdown forcing down oil prices and putting a small lid on that. The release of the SOR and IEA seemed to have less of an impact than the lockdown. Natural gas is now rising due to the USA eating into its own supply by shipping to europe. China lockdown still had to work its way through the trade system and the affects on goods has even begun. Energy Prices typically still rise in the summer. Food should still rise. I will be surprised if inflation has peaked.
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Apr 12, 2022 15:41
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Willa Rogers posted:Wait, do you mean that rent rose 17 percent year-over-year or that it rose 17 percent in March? It's gotta be the former, right? Yeah and it was zillow. The housing data pissed off Burry this morning. https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1513909341019152392?t=aw3vp6F0wA2rVoAi7o923w&s=19
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Apr 12, 2022 17:46
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cat botherer posted:Those formulas are pure sophistry Friend if you think that about the formulas, might I interest you in googling "owner's equivalent rent"?
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Apr 12, 2022 21:15
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Follow up to yesterday's chatter about CPI peaking in March. Today's PPI numbers would indicate that is a false narrative.
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Apr 13, 2022 14:28
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Willa Rogers posted:Go on... The CPI is the consumer price index which measures what the consumer pays. The PPI is the producer price index which measures what the producers of consumer goods are paying. So the PPI is considered a leading indicator for CPI because the producer will pass on price increases to the consumer. Luckily in March the ppi print was a big miss upwards. Here are the numbers and charts I enjoy. https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1514220109803446280?t=L477yxYfVQlWtG2ArWsNvg&s=19 https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1514222477957869572?t=ZrKUD4Lf4nXIyYDgl-AUgA&s=19 https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1514222186051121152?t=vHXx-XhPgb33FxLscWLTWA&s=19 Here is Rick santelli getting excited about those numbers. https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1514220861099757583?t=yy9P98mBAfoWsdGln66mdg&s=19
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Apr 13, 2022 15:35
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FlamingLiberal posted:I’ve seen concern that we still aren’t feeling the effects of China locking down and that it’s going to just make everything worse soon Yes it should make things worse. Last I saw there was something like 500+ ships waiting in Shanghai. Europe is starting to backup again. Long term shipping freight contracts are also rising in price again which is not good. The oil reserve release did give the Inventories a crude surplus, but surprise they did not ease the ongoing shortages of gasoline and diesel. https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1514249814363492356?t=I7l-rhrv-SkOQ37u18Xfpw&s=19 Frankly we have 2 ways forward to unfuck inflation. This is coincidentally one of the Feds mandates. One way is fixing the supply chains which the solution for keeps getting pushed back. I think it is summer 2023 has the current estimate for "return to normal". Plus the fed cant actually do anything about that. The other way to fix inflation is something the fed can do which is "demand destruction". What is "demand destruction"? Well, "demand destruction" is when you cause the consumer to stop consuming so less goods are needed to be produced, less energy used, less leverage for employees to get higher pay. Now how can can you cause this to happen if you are the Fed? Recession. So the Federal Reserve has to cause a recession to stop inflation. They claim they will do a "soft landing", but this is just weasel for "not as much value loss to the top." Oh and inflation only really became a "problem" for the fed when it was discovered that wages were starting to rise in response. See it is ok when high inflation is happening because revenue and profits become all time highs which is good! When workers want higher pay because of the inflation this is bad! Luckily the increasing wages are being outpaced by the inflation which gives workers more incentive to demand higher wages which increases costs to the producer so they have to roll that to the consumer who need more money to pay for the goods so the consumer tells their boss they need higher wages. It is a spiral that needed to be avoided. It wasn't. Anyway we are probably in a kinds stagflationary period at the moment. This was the worst possible outcome. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 16:45 on Apr 13, 2022 |
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Apr 13, 2022 16:42
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Since I talked to Willa and Leon a little about inflation last month. This should drag down the April inflation numbers. We should see lower or meeting estimates. If they surprise higher then lmao The combined number will hide the damage that is happening. Food, rent, energy, and services should be where we look. https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1522588294323871747?t=82HNvrkPgk8sipQ1b7PMYQ&s=19
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May 6, 2022 15:59
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Inflation number dropped. https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1524366507144228864?t=89yE_CklEC1EG8Cceq4W7w&s=19 https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1524366485505855488?t=FVDAaknkSx0UeggIdGAukw&s=19 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm While it is lower than the march "peak" that is deceiving. Looking st the breakdowns you can see energy prices and used car prices did drag down the inflation rate so this report was not catastrophic. That is the good news. Bad news. Food, shelter,, and new cars are running hotter than expected. Food is projected to keep going higher. Shelter shouldn't peak until july/august/september. New cars should keep climbing higher due to supply chain issues. High inflation is embedded and persistent. Tomorrow's PPI will most likely confirm this. May inflation numbers may end up going higher than the March "peak" due to energy costs skyrocketing in may. Plus the China lockdown supply shocks are still working its way through the system. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 14:10 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 14:08
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Decent breakdown thread of why inflation will stay high at a potential plateau or leg higher. He even notes how used cars are outweighted. https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1524372655301963776?t=YViKcoKtFKbzrhfS_av6aw&s=19 I can not stress enough either how bad this inflation report was. The only good news is it didn't surpass March. All 67 inflation expectations were wrong. The federal reserve will be forcing a recession to curb some of this, but how much demand destruction and wage destruction will be required to bring inflation back down. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 14:49 on May 11, 2022 |
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May 11, 2022 14:42
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Willa Rogers posted:Do you have information on the sectors driving the inflation in services? (One that I've seen happen is in home health care, especially post-covid.) Is it due to labor shortages and thus rising wages, or something else? Services is a tidal wave of demand shifting from goods into that sector. There is also services having to cover costs from goods rising. Wages are not adding as much to inflation as everyone is being lead to believe. Blackrock agrees with that. The labor shortage may not even be real. There is ancedotal evidence that many of the job listings are for the same job but posted in each state. This is causing the number of "openings" to be inflated. I heard a good term yesterday that what is happening is a "profit-price spiral". An interesting thought. Wages have been dropping since the beginning of the year. I think December had negative real growth too. It is absolutely catastrophic for the bottom of this country. At this point we will be getting a recession whether on its own or forced by the fed. How severe is what you should be asking. Hell yesterday and today biden essentially called for the fed to do a recession. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1524390639609290753?t=XzKaZzvL9lJ4KzKCAbanPA&s=19
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May 11, 2022 15:32
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If you think inflation is bad now, wait until the east coast runs out of diesel.
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May 11, 2022 15:42
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Gripweed posted:Volcker Shock 2, baby! People said Biden could be the new FDR, but he has chosen to be the new Carter instead. Yep. Kashkari and Bostic both said in the last week that the Fed will force a recession if the supply chain doesn't unfuck and inflstion stays high. The only action the fed can do to fight inflation is demand destruction and destroying labor power (wages). To do those you have to have a recession. poo poo, after the FOMC Powell said expect inflation to continue to surprise through the summer. People need to listen to what is said. It is all telegraphed out.
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May 11, 2022 15:46
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VitalSigns posted:Wasn't the Volker recession what sank Carter because everyone (rightly) blamed him for it and (wrongly) hoped Reagan would fix it because he was the other guy I think biden and his team still believe a "soft landing" is possible. The messaging out of them is so disconnected from what has been happening it is astonishing. Going into the midterms we will most likely be coming out of a summer of record gas and diesel prices, possible recession (q2 numbers have to be negative yo be "official"), a stock market that at the moment is seemingly in a '00/'08 style drawdown, higher unemployment (fed governers confirmed this week thiswill be happening), and persistent and possibly higher inflation. This doesn't include hypotheticals like housing crash and bank failures that depend on how certain situations play out. Who knows though. Maybe everything will turn out fine, but at the moment every possible indicator says otherwise.
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May 11, 2022 16:12
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:How is the stock market is in an "'08 style drawdown" other than just seeing "number go down recently"? Liquidity is drying up. What little there is seems to be coming from retail investors. This will get worse as rates rise. The Everything Bubble is popping.
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May 11, 2022 16:52
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If you really want to mess yourself up about the CPI data learn how they calculate rent. I can't link to it because it is a pdf. Just Google " How does the BLS calculate CPI rent?"
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May 11, 2022 19:55
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BiggerBoat posted:OK, but your ability to pay it decreases and your allotted budget for it is carved into when your monthly gas, food and utility costs increase so it may as well. Inflation certainly has an impact on your housing budget. Which I think is what people are arguing. No? What am I missing here? Rent is going up insane amounts. 
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May 11, 2022 20:05
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Abner Assington posted:I’m just in the midst of moving into a condo I bought and the talk of recession (both in here and relatively coded among economists) has me spooked to all hell. Q2 numbers have to confirm. You can decide to not worry about it for another 3 months.
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May 11, 2022 22:06
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Willa Rogers posted:My lease renewal came with a less-than-one-percent increase for the next year & I signed that puppy so fast the ink wasn't dry when I was stuffing it in the envelope. The BLS calculates rent for the CPI by asking people who live in their home how much they think they would rent their home for. They also ask some renters how much their rent is. Unfortunately the OER has 3x the weight of actual rent data. Zillow has better housing data because they survey 100k homes each month. Redfin is also not too bad.
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May 11, 2022 23:06
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Thought I would drop this interview that just happened with newly reappointed fed chair J-Pow. In it he says in weasel fed speak that a recession is most likely happening. He also talks about how a "soft landing" meant always hurting employment and needing to reduce the number of job openings because the labor market is too strong and wages are too high. He also invokes Volker and lmao at that section. https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/12/fed-chair-jerome-powell-controlling-inflation-will-include-some-pain/
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May 12, 2022 22:13
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4 things are causing or caused the inflation 1. Supply chain disruptions and breakdowns including shortages on commodities or inputs like diesel, potash, microchips. Lead tines are also terrible with anywhere from 6-22 weeks cited in the ISM and pmi reports. 2. Increased demand caused by the locust horde called Americans who went crazy while under lockdown. This strained already low supplies are certain goods categories like cars and electronics. 3. BRRRRRRRing money printer dumped poo poo tons of free money into the markets and hosed up the valuations of real estate and equity. The fed has admitted to this. 4. Corporate greed. The wealthy have even told nonstop for a year that the American consumer has never been wealthier and has $2.5 trillion in savings. They is a lot of wealth that needs to be extracted.
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May 18, 2022 20:22
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Willa Rogers posted:Speaking of buy-backs the Dow's down over 1,000 pts right now, presumably bc of bad retail quarterlies. Rug pull on the retail baggies that cnbc and finance social media convinced to buy the dip because the bottom was in. The retail quarterlies were very bad though. Confirmed what the numbers had started to show.
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May 18, 2022 20:24
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This will probably be as close to her saying a recession will be happening as she can get. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1527333363777843201?t=kRgwzpOYfo8UcuwPR8xbGw&s=19 Powell has said expect more pain. CNN and Bloomberg both have stories up saying us rents hit another record high in April. https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/19/homes/us-rents-april/index.html One of the things I learned when reading about inflation pressures is rent is a lagging indicator and you tack on 3-6 months of rent increases for every new month of housing price increases. I believe I read this from Jason Furman. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 18:38 on May 19, 2022 |
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May 19, 2022 18:31
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Personal opinion from the economic junk i'm reading, but I think May inflation numbers will surprise higher.
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Jun 1, 2022 15:13
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I think Biden is going to have to do a refined oil products export ban to get domestic prices under control.
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Jun 1, 2022 22:05
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Srice posted:Despite no longer eating them I've been keeping an eye on the price of eggs each time I go out and get groceries. Mendrian posted:It feels to me on a lot of ways that this is the real "late stage capitalism" people keep talking about where price gouging has run rampant and everybody with the power to set prices has realize nobody can really argue with it. I feel like there's no ceiling on how high life necessities might rise in cost and that the market will absolutely try and find out. Of course the only way for the market to adjust for how much people are willing to pay for bread and milk is for people to starve but who cares. Hello you will want to look at this.
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Jun 5, 2022 14:46
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Ghost Leviathan posted:And if the Democrats keep saying this poo poo and apparently mean it, it raises a lot of questions about who the Democrats are and who they're actually listening to. The democrats are the party of the top 20%-30% of the United States of America because that is who was doing well. Edit: one of the conversations I've been watching unfold is how the top 40% of Americans based on income make up over 50% of the current spending consumption. They are doing this by leveraging equity. The fed wants to create demand destruction to try and bring down inflation. Things are going to get worse. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 18:06 on Jun 5, 2022 |
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Jun 5, 2022 18:03
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I believe Brainard said friday that there are too many good and better paying jobs than the low level jobs. On top of that the number of workers in the usa is dropping because of covid having currently killed or maimed a couple million and usa immigration policies. So the fed needs to crush the job market to get people back into the jobs that actually make this country move.
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Jun 6, 2022 01:03
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The disconnect with democrat messeging is that the "Very Important People" can not say "boy the economy is bad," because the algorithms that do the trading skim headlines. If they read Biden saying a recession is happening the markets would poo poo themselves. Which is funny because the fed needs the markets to poo poo themselves. They just want it to happen in am orderly way.
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Jun 6, 2022 13:04
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:I heard it referred to as a working class recession. It may be that it isn't an 'actual' recession by the numbers, but the crunch on the lower economic class is real and quite omnipresent. This is exactly what is happening. Heather Long had an opinion piece this weekend that laid out how the USA economy could still "grow" as long as the top 40% of Americans continue to spend. Cardi B tweeted out she thinks we are in a recession. Lol I think Q2 has a good chance for negative GDP and securing the "recession" title. Retailers reporting excess inventories as discretionary spending begins to dry up and usa government spending at home being reduced will be the main drags. Inventories is only 1% typically give or take, but when the Atlanta gdp tracker is at 1.3% that is big. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 14:48 on Jun 6, 2022 |
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Jun 6, 2022 14:43
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Cardi B also agreed with Nikki Minaj - who thought that the Covid vaccine would give your balls gigantism - and thinks that rich people pay too much in taxes in America, so she might not be a great source for scientific, medical, or economic information. So she is the perfect example of an average American. Cardi B tweeting about a recession is just an example of the "narrative" going mainstream.
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Jun 6, 2022 15:16
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haveblue posted:The crypto bill introduced today is, perhaps unsurprisingly, extremely friendly to crypto The 2 main senators behind the crypto bill gave a solid interview this morning. https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1534151448199671808?t=Kw__68ahVUvsmBF0jH-KDA&s=19 They called bitcoin a "wonderful investment idea for retirement... because bitcoin shines as a store of value." https://twitter.com/CongressChanges/status/1362785234467450881?t=mVpISKzz3-jXeqmNeGML4w&s=19
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Jun 8, 2022 00:49
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haveblue posted:Whoever chose the graphics to accompany this probably enjoyed themselves It was a live feed of crypto prices. If they had been talking about Ukraine war funding it would have showed defense sector stocks. That is just how CNBC is.
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Jun 8, 2022 01:10
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Good chance the inflation print Friday will hold even or surprise higher. We should see an acceleration in the food and energy components. The used car component had been dragging down part of the calculations, but manheim said they saw a .7% growth in prices for used cars. Did the potential home price deceleration happen enough to off offset other increases? Other consumer goods may have dropped, but that would mean other problems are occurring. Services inflation most definitely increased. Should be an interesting friday morning.
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Jun 8, 2022 16:04
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More pain coming. We should be adding to inventories with the amount being produced! One bright spot is potential of diesel easing up. That is a big jump in inventory. https://twitter.com/LiveSquawk/status/1534543548405764098?t=cSISYdbRgPTjzzEeK56mBw&s=19 https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1534547589592489985?t=RCCnfnDoNQFzyxM47DCsUg&s=19 The only reason crude inventories increase 2.500k is the spr release of 7.200k. We would have seen a -5.000k hit if not for spring. Lmao the energy markets are fuckkkkkked. https://twitter.com/MenthorQpro/status/1534546788937568256?t=rvAHDGTdpwRn1TYkJSJ7Tw&s=19
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Jun 8, 2022 16:57
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:People have been saying for decades that the only way to fully transition to green energy is to raise the price of fossil fuels until it becomes economically unviable to use them. The time to transition was when fossil fuels were cheaper. If the prices become too high the costs to produce and transition to green will not make it worthwhile. We are seeing the same problems within the fossil fuel industry currently. The increased prices on items needed to find and extract fossil fuel is make those ventures less profitable than desired. Unfortunately we live in a system that requires high profits to justify investments!
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Jun 8, 2022 17:08
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Baronash posted:I'm not quite sure I understand what you're saying. The system does not work with a long term profit view. It works with a short term profit view. The savings and benefits would be great in the future, but in the immediate the hit to financials would be considered unacceptable. This same view can be applied to a ton of beneficial programs or changes and explains why they are considered unattainable.
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Jun 8, 2022 17:55
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It's happening https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/white-house-expects-next-inflation-numbers-be-elevated-2022-06-08/ quote:The White House expects the next round of economic data to show elevated numbers on inflation, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Wednesday.
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Jun 8, 2022 21:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:They don't matter. That is why they are the public hearings. It is very weird that you seem to be arguing that leaders should not lead. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 9, 2022 00:49
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Willa Rogers posted:Bunch of fresh new polling out for President Pop-Pop, and the news isn't getting any better: The polling data on economic issues is extremely concerning if you are a fed official.
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Jun 9, 2022 02:40
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These numbers are not good. March was not the peak. Initial quick scanning is telling me everything is accelerating. June is on track to be worse. https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1535238107729211393?t=LONaV9ZKCeGrAGMrbnl7gg&s=19 This is very, very bad. https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1535239254317703169?t=GBWS6A-fYoMUpmTpOFxEWQ&s=19 This is the highest inflstion print since 1981. Mr Hootington fucked around with this message at 13:41 on Jun 10, 2022 |
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Jun 10, 2022 13:35
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