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https://www.idnes.cz/hokej/extraliga/jaromir-jagr-kladno-budoucnost.A221002_204248_hokej_rou Jaromir Jagr may finally be at the end, the article is in Czech but basically he has no motivation to come back to playing except for the Czech Winter Classic he already agreed to play. no interest in keeping up with the training, the diet, the work, on top of everything he does as an owner. looks like 50 is the cap folks, get all your poo poo in by 50 or it's over
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Oct 3, 2022 10:50
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| # ? May 2, 2024 12:17 |
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Two straight exciting seasons for the Wild. Two straight first-round disappointments. It’s always the same story for Minnesota sports: Even the most exciting teams find a way to let you down. Maybe that’s not totally fair for this team — they didn’t enter either season with the highest expectations — but given their performance, it felt like they deserved a bit more in the playoffs. Perhaps the third time’s the charm in the Kirill Kaprizov era. Even though last season didn’t end as many hoped it would, the team’s regular-season performance spoke volumes about where the club currently stands: The Wild are a legitimate contender. Since Kaprizov’s arrival, this model has been a huge fan of what the Wild have been doing — sometimes to an overzealous degree. That’s not stopping anytime soon as the Wild enter the season with a strong chance of being one of the league’s very best teams. The Wild have arrived.  The projection As is usually the case, the model loves the Minnesota Wild. That’s been the case in each of the last two seasons, both of which the Wild have over-performed in, and that’s not changing this year either. Oddsmakers tab the Wild as a 100-point team, and the model continues to be as bullish as always. There are some that joke that this model is a Leafs homer — a byproduct of the person who developed it. But that is false — this model, for the last two years anyway, bleeds forest green. And so that means the most optimistic projection yet for the Wild: 106 points and a one-in-10 shot at winning it all. It’s a massive jump from last year’s 97.8-point projection and that’s because the model wanted to see the Wild repeat the magic from Kaprizov’s rookie season. They did, finishing fifth in the league with 113 points. In the Kaprizov era, the Wild have played at a 112-point pace — they deserve a lofty point projection. Minnesota finishes in the league’s top 10 four times out of five this season and is a top-five team 48 percent of the time. Not bad at all. A finish outside the playoffs looks extremely unlikely, and the Wild even have a shot of winning the division after Colorado’s offseason exodus at 38 percent. It’s the team’s most likely landing spot, due to its proximity in projected points to the Avalanche. The division will likely come down to one of them. That’s all well and good, but where there’s deserved skepticism is the team’s chances of going deep in the playoffs. The Wild have a great team, but it’s one built entirely on depth with a league’s best supporting cast. The core, in comparison, is closer to the middle of the pack. That may be enough to bank a lot of regular-season points, but will it be enough to go the distance come playoff time? The Wild will have to hope so, because there’s a big behemoth standing in their way in the Central Division: last season’s Cup champions, carried by the league’s best core. The core Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, Marc-Andre Fleury If cores win championships, Minnesota might be in a little bit of trouble. The Wild’s top group ranks 13th in the league at 15.4 combined wins — the worst of the top 10 who otherwise average 19.4 wins. That’s a big gap and while some of it is explained by two of Minnesota’s best, Boldy and Spurgeon, qualifying as “depth” — it’s still a red flag with the team’s roster construction. Obviously it’s strong enough to put the team within the top five, but come playoff time when power versus power matchups can dictate how a series tilts, the Wild end up behind the eight ball. That doesn’t mean the team is doomed, just that they’ll have to find a way. A lot of that will ride on Kirill Kaprizov, the team’s lone superstar. The hope with his arrival (finally) would be that he was exactly that. Mission accomplished. Kaprizov built on his Calder-winning rookie season with an incredible encore: a 47-goal, 108-point season that put him on the fringes of the MVP discussion. At five-on-five Kaprizov scored 3.23 points-per-60, a franchise high built on his dual-threat ability to snipe and dish. Kaprizov had one of the highest shot contribution marks in the league (27.1 per 60) with a majority of those becoming legitimate chances. Combine that with his ability in transition where only three others (Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathew Barzal, Jack Hughes) earned more controlled entries and you get a player who brings a massive offensive impact. The Wild scored 3.8 goals-per-60 with Kaprizov on the ice last season, 0.9 more than the year before as he created more shots and chances. The Wild scored 1.3 more goals per 60 than expected with Kaprizov on the ice and while that would normally be a red flag, for him it’s likely part of his allure. Kaprizov’s game-breaking ability puts him in that class with guys like Patrick Kane and Evgeny Kuznetsov where a high on-ice shooting percentage is expected. With those guys, pay attention to the goal totals more than the expected goal totals. Kaprizov was at 59 percent for the second straight season. Minnesota has the offensive side down with Kaprizov and he even showed it in the playoffs with seven goals in six games. He’s brought Hartman and Zuccarello along for the ride too, both of whom saw a massive spike in production riding shotgun with Kirill the Thrill. Hartman is a shooter who helps off the cycle while Zuccarello is a passer who helps off the rush — Kaprizov is the guy that brings it all together. His effect can be best seen with Hartman’s quantum leap last season: jumping from 0.57 goals-per-60 and 1.62 points-per-60 the previous season to 1.45 goals-per-60 and 2.68 points-per-60 on the top line. The Kaprizov effect is real. The defensive side runs through Eriksson Ek who’s been on the edge of the Selke Trophy race for two straight seasons now. That’s not all him — he’s got help from his linemates creating arguably the league’s best shutdown line — but he’s this team’s headlining talent on defense. Like Kaprizov, the Wild have earned 59 percent of the goals the last two years with Eriksson Ek on the ice, with the difference being where those goals are earned. Eriksson Ek does it with his defensive ability where the Wild allow just 1.9 expected goals against per 60 the last two seasons. Eriksson Ek has been consistently elite in that regard throughout his career and always performs well, even relative to a strong defensive team. Though Eriksson Ek and Co. are strong defensive players, part of their value begins in the offensive zone with a soul-crushing forecheck that is tough to beat. He and his two cohorts grade out as three of the best forecheckers in the league when it comes to pressures and recovering dump-ins. Most effective lines have one of those types — the Wild put three on the same line and the results have been phenomenal. It leads to a lot of cycle chances for the group. The team’s defensive prowess doesn’t end with Eriksson Ek and friends, it continues with the two defenders who made the core: Brodin and Dumba. It may be a surprise not to see the captain here, but it’s Brodin and Dumba who have the biggest responsibility on the blue line, skating 23 minutes per night against the opposition’s best. It’s Brodin who shines brightest here with 56 percent of the expected goals, behind only Spurgeon, which stems from his elite defensive ability. In zone, there are few who rival what Brodin brings to the table and what’s obvious from watching shows up in his numbers. Brodin is projected to have the sixth-best defensive impact in the league behind Charlie McAvoy, Devon Toews, Miro Heiskanen, Chris Tanev and Matt Grzelcyk. Brodin is really good at what he does, but Dumba helps get this pair moving. He’s much stronger with the puck in terms of generating chances in-zone, breaking the puck out and moving the puck through the neutral zone. It’s a tried-and-true, classic combination that works well for a reason. In net is the team’s biggest wildcard going into the season: Marc-Andre Fleury. The future Hall of Famer is just two seasons removed from a Vezina-caliber season, but struggled to live up to those standards last season. He was fine with both Chicago and Minnesota, posting a .908 and .910 respectively. On a strong defensive team like this, that’s good enough — but if the team fancies itself a contender, it wouldn’t hurt to see Fleury regain his elite form. The support With a total value of 11.5 wins, the Wild have the best supporting cast in the league. It helps that players like Spurgeon surprisingly slot here. The classifications are based on usage and workload, and Minnesota has two defenders who jump out ahead in those respects. Spurgeon didn’t have to take on top competition and was third in average ice time. Maybe that changes this year, especially now that the first pair appears to be more balanced with Middleton rounding out the top pair. Spurgeon’s quiet effectiveness probably doesn’t get nearly as much apparition as it should. He’s a really strong puck-mover who can retrieve pucks from his own end and bring them out of the zone with possession. That contributes to the Wild generating more shots and quality chances while their captain is on the ice. Spurgeon’s defense of the blue line and ability to protect the scoring areas limits what opponents can create while he’s deployed, as well. The one thing that works against him is his size. It’s not really a problem in the regular season, but has bitten him in the playoffs. Middleton does help in that department, though. He has less offensive dimension than his partner — he can close passing lanes with positioning and blocks, and clear pucks out of his own zone instead of skating it out — but their skill sets appeared to have clicked last year. Post-deadline, the pair was fine in 241 minutes together, but the team had great results. Then in Round 1, the two were even stronger together which bodes well for this upcoming season if they stick together. Below them, there’s veteran Alex Goligoski and rookie Calen Addison. The latter has some potential to show his puck-moving upside, especially if he sticks on the top power-play unit. Up front, there’s the rest of the JEEk line in the Wild’s supporting cast in Greenway and Foligno. The latter was a legitimate contender for the Selke thanks to his two-way efforts. He brings a physical edge, contributes to offense, and is defensively stout. Greenway is expected to start the year on injured reserve, but should resume his role on that line when he returns. While his all-situation scoring rate did dip last year, he picked it up in other areas — specifically, his shooting and hitting. A player to watch in the bottom six is obviously Rossi. There are always expectations that come with being a top-10 pick, and maybe that’s grown a bit more in Minnesota after Boldy made such an instant impact. It’s possible the two actually play together more, adding more intrigue to the Wild’s depth since the two have already played together. Neither one is a slam dunk, even after Boldy’s encouraging start, though. The sophomore currently projects to be worth 2.8 wins, which is probably inflated by the fact that it’s only based on his 47 NHL games versus the typical three years of data. There, he was a star from the get-go, posting a 57 percent expected goals rate (second among Wild forwards) while scoring 2.99 points-per-60 at five-on-five, one of the highest rates in the league. He’s expected to get more power-play time this year which gives him a little boost in his value. It’s not to say that Boldy can’t be a difference-maker again, even if he doesn’t reach those heights that currently rank him as the second-most valuable player in Minnesota. Even though he hit a rookie wall later in the year, there’s no question that Boldy got off to a strong start at his level. Had he played more than 47 games, he could have ended up as a Calder Trophy finalist instead of finishing eighth. He played at a 3.1-win pace last season. But Boldy’s probably not going to have nearly as high-quality teammates as he did last year with Kevin Fiala unless Rossi absolutely pops off. His other linemate options include the likes of Brandon Duhaime, Connor Dewar, Tyson Jost and Frederick Gaudreau; all are fine players in their own right, but none are at the level of Fiala who is a legitimate top-six winger with high offensive upside. Barring something major, the top six is pretty much locked up for the Wild right now. To move up, either Boldy would have to really push his way ahead to knock someone out of their mainstay combinations, a top-sixer would have to play pretty poorly, or there would have to be an injury. So now, whichever third-line combination Boldy’s in, he’s going to be the primary target (versus having some attention drawn away from him when Fiala was on the ice). He looks like a player who can handle the heat and was one of the league’s highest-volume puck carriers last year, but it’s better to see him thrive as the focal point first before anointing him. Boldy is a potential game-breaker and is a model favourite for a reason, but 47 games still isn’t a whole lot to go off of. If he does prove he can maintain last year’s value or even build on it, he can entrench himself as a high-end core player for the Wild — and that would go a long way toward solving this team’s biggest issue which is a lack of high-end talent. The bottom line There’s plenty to like about the Wild. Kaprizov’s gifts are obvious, and he’s not yet a finished product. The forward group is dotted with players — like Eriksson Ek, Zuccarello and Foligno — who are easy to imagine as pieces on a truly elite team. Boldy’s projection reflects the star-caliber potential he showed last season. There are no defensive weak spots. Can they put it together? Absolutely. But there’s still work to be done. Whether it comes from Rossi leveling up or via outside reinforcements, Minnesota likely needs another top-six forward or two to make their teamwide projection stand up. They also need a full, reliable season from Fleury, who turns 38 in November. They’re one of the few best teams in the West, no doubt, but they’re not question-mark free and the defending champs lurk.
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Oct 3, 2022 12:47
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He’s powerful enough to turn a sneaky tank candidate back into a Cup contender. Ah, Patrice Bergeron, we’ll miss you when you’re gone … but not as much as the Bruins will. How many more offseason moves were more consequential than Bergeron’s decision to return to Boston? David Krejci followed. All those David Pastrnak trade rumors were extinguished in a hurry. The Bruins’ forward group, all of a sudden, made sense again. And, most of all, Boston got itself a chance to weather early absences from Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk. Without one of the few best centers in the NHL, that would’ve been a tough sell. It still may be — the domino effect of those three injuries remains to be seen — but by midseason, this roster has a chance at being one of the most balanced in the league. If Bergeron and Krejci returned because they still saw real championship potential? They just might be right.  The projection Given all the noise surrounding Boston’s pending demise this offseason, there’s likely going to be some sticker shock with the team’s 103.7-point projection. It’s a small step down from last season’s 107 points, but perhaps not a large enough one given the current sentiment around the team. A lot of folks are down on the Bruins primarily due to an exhaustive list of injuries to start the season. Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy — arguably the team’s two most important players — are likely out for the first two months of the season. Grzelcyk, one of the team’s better back-end options, is out for at least the first month. That’s a lot of value out of the lineup and without those guys, the Bruins indeed look vulnerable. But the projection accounts for that, projecting games played for every player on the roster. Once this team is healthy, it’s a very scary group with one of the absolute best cores in the league and an underrated supporting cast. This version of the Bruins is the deepest it’s been in years, making Boston a very scary out come playoff time. There will likely be an early hole to get out of, but when healthy this roster is equipped to come out of it. Boston makes the playoffs 91 percent of the time. That’s a bit of a scary thought given the age of some of the team’s core pieces and the injuries that some will have to come back from. Boston likely does have more downside to its projection than given credit for here as a result, a left-leaning skew on the distribution curve. As deep as the team is, a lot still rides on the core and while they were all very elite last season, the threat of age still looms large. The loss of Bruce Cassidy is also understated here and there’s no guarantee new coach Jim Montgomery can get the same value out of this group as Cassidy was able to. The model doesn’t account for coaching effects and that’s worth keeping in mind here. It may be overly bullish for that reason, but based on how each player has played over the last few seasons and how they’re likely to age, this is still a team with a lot to like. Boston is in a tough division which lessens its playoff path — the team is more likely to lose in the first round than advance — but the Bruins still enter the season with a strong chance of winning it all at 6.8 percent. At the very least, the team should eclipse 100 points this year, doing so 70 percent of the time. The big question Can the Bruins survive all their early-season injuries? With Marchand, McAvoy and Grzelcyk out of the lineup, the Bruins will be without 11 wins of value to start the season. That’s a lot of talent missing from the roster and the end result is a playoff bubble team. The forwards may look OK without Marchand in the lineup, but without McAvoy and Grzelcyk, the defense looks paper thin. Given the team’s modest goaltending, it’s a recipe for disaster over the first two months — though Grzelcyk should come back sooner. While it looks bad, it doesn’t necessarily mean doom and gloom for the Bruins. At some point, the trio will come back and a fully healthy Bruins team should do just fine — it’s just a matter of where the team is at when that time comes. Most fans tend to overrate individual contributions in this sport and while a cascade of injuries is difficult to deal with, it’s far from impossible. The Bruins in particular are well situated with its deepest roster in years and some excellent forwards that can pick up the slack in the meantime. Still, it’s worth taking a deeper dive into Boston’s actual schedule to figure out the exact impact the injuries should have. For starters, Grzelcyk should be back by November and it’s worth looking into that section of the schedule first. Boston plays nine games in that span, six of which are at home with an average opponent strength by expected win percentage of 0.486. It’s a cushy schedule where under normal circumstances the Bruins would be favored in every game and expected to win 5.8. That’s with full health. Without their three injured players, the Bruins would be underdogs instead in two games and drop to 4.8 expected wins. One expected win lost. Big deal. Marchand and McAvoy aren’t projected to return until December, but the Bruins should get Grzelcyk back for November when things do get significantly harder. Boston plays 13 games with seven at home but nine against playoff teams from last season. The Bruins’ average opponent strength jumps to 0.543 — this is where the team’s injury situation will be felt most. With a healthy lineup, Boston would be favoured in nine of 13 games and expected to win 7.5 games. Without Marchand and McAvoy that drops to 6.4 expected wins — but the team would only be favoured in five of 13 games. That’s likely where there’s a dichotomy in thinking between an average fan and one that’s more well-versed in probability. In 22 games, the Bruins are expected to lose 2.1 games due to their injury status, but are expected to be favoured in six fewer games. One feels manageable. The other, much less so. With that being said, the two lines of thinking lead to the same conclusion because Boston should win fewer games than favored in October, but more games than favored in November. The end result is the same: around 11 or 12 wins. That’s hardly sky is falling territory and is why the model remains bullish on the team’s chances this season. Of course, that’s predicated on just how good this roster actually is — healthy or not. This isn’t the same top-heavy Bruins team from years past, but they may still be overrated by the model from coaching effects, a lack of proper age adjustment, or even naivety with regard to how each injured player recovers. There’s risk involved with Boston’s forecast, more so than most other teams due to the team’s injury situation. But if it really is just one month for Grzelcyk and two months for Marchand and McAvoy, then that risk feels a little overblown. Of course, that also depends on the rest of the team staying healthy … literally as we filed this piece, the team announced Taylor Hall would be week-to-week with injury. That definitely exacerbates the issue depending on how long he’s out and we will have an updated projection with his absence before the season starts. Regardless, Boston should still survive the first two months of the season just fine. The Bruins usually take those months off anyway, healthy or not. The wildcard How good is Hampus Lindholm? We have a pretty good idea of how good Lindholm was, or at least the player he’d become by the time the Bruins acquired him in March. He’d settled into life as a “set it and forget it” left-side defenseman on the first pair of a mediocre (or worse) team who’d spend the first part of last season attempting to babysit Jamie Drysdale. His own point production topped out back in 2017-18 at 1.2 points/60, but he hadn’t seen his numbers there crater, either. He just didn’t move the needle all that much from a five-on-five play-driving perspective. He was a player that no right-minded person would ever have a problem with, and his value to, say, Eastern Conference contenders was high for a reason. All good there. But as a guy you sign to the longest contract possible, for $6.5 AAV into his late 30s and loaded up with no-movement clauses? That’s a dodgier proposition. And that’s exactly what Don Sweeney did with Lindholm a day after acquiring him. Mix all that in with the cost of the trade (a first-round pick and two second-rounders) and you’ve got a player that should probably have a projected GSVA higher than 0.7 for the upcoming season (which is 305th overall and a few slots behind Radko Gudas). Of course, the variable for Lindholm — and the reason Boston wanted him so badly and paid him so much — is how he looks and produces with McAvoy. Their results in 131 minutes together last season, spread out over 10 games, were fantastic: 12 goals for, three against, with an expected goals share of nearly 66 percent. Their playing styles are an interesting match, too; McAvoy is one of the few best defensemen in the league, a do-everything, two-way force. Pairing that with someone like Lindholm — if Lindholm does some of the dirty work in transition defense, say — could unlock another gear within McAvoy. It’d also allow for Grzelcyk to anchor his own pair from the left side. In a vacuum, the logic was simple. With McAvoy and Grzelcyk both out to start the season, we’ll have to wait on proof of concept. Is Lindholm good? Sure. Boston is paying for him to be more, though. Next to McAvoy, he should be much better in a role better suited for him — and the model will adjust accordingly. The core Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, Taylor Hall, Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Jeremy Swayman The Bruins’ core is headlined by one of the best two-way players in the game. Bergeron ended his 2021-22 season with his 11th Selke Trophy nomination and fifth win. What’s even more impressive is he was still at this level last year at 36 years old. And it wasn’t just “impressive for a 36-year-old” caliber play; it was legitimate dominance on both ends of the ice. At five-on-five, no NHL mainstay was on the ice for a lower rate of shots (39.7 attempts per 60) or expected goals (1.49 per 60) against than Bergeron. Unsurprisingly, he was a huge positive relative to his teammates as well, lowering their shot rate against by 7.55 per 60 and expected goals by 0.40 per 60. The pivotal forward’s defensive efforts include winning puck battles under pressure, blocking passes, and stopping opponents from exiting with possession to extend offensive zone time. But his strengths don’t stop at defense; he can outright generate offense as well. Bergeron was such a plus on the Bruins’ offensive creation, adding to their shot rate by 13.2 per 60 and expected goals by 0.58 per 60; both stacked up to the best influences any player had on their team around the league. Bergeron, naturally, managed this while playing in high-leverage minutes against top competition. The question Boston faces is whether his game will start to wilt at 37 years old. Age-related decline is inevitable; it can be sudden and sharp, even for the greats like Bergeron. But oftentimes when a player starts at such a high level, their slide to “average” still tops most mid-level players in the league. What helps Bergeron’s case is that he isn’t alone on the ice. Most of the time, he’s skating alongside a really strong two-way winger in Marchand. The left wing spent about 81 percent of his five-on-five minutes with Bergeron last year. Love him or hate him for his pesky antics, the world knows the impact Marchand can make for the Bruins. That’s why his absence is going to be a challenge to open the season. The winger is an all-situational threat; he plays top power-play minutes, is a power killer while short-handed, and is a dynamic player at even strength. Boston relies on him to pressure opponents on the forecheck and be a top scorer on the team. At 4.6 projected wins, Marchand’s presence elevates the team’s top-line ranking and left-winger depth to the league’s upper echelon. Anything less than his projected 4.6 wins obviously slides the team’s trajectory in the wrong direction. And there’s a legitimate chance the Bruins do see less than that because hip surgery is no cakewalk to return from, especially at 34 years old. The model doesn’t account for that and that’s one reason this team has a bit more downside than projected. With Marchand sidelined, Hall was supposed to have his time to shine — but that will have to wait until he returns from injury. Boston has been a good fit for a winger who doesn’t have to put up Hart-caliber play on a nightly basis like he’s had to in the past. Instead, he gets to be one of The Guys, which seems to click with him. While his game differs from Marchand stylistically, there are some similarities that should keep the team afloat — including his ability to bring the puck into the offensive zone at a high rate like Marchand, and help create scoring chances off those entries. Hall actually had a team-high 72.1 percent controlled entry rate last year. Because the Bruins have recognized that they can break up the Perfection Line to strengthen the top six, Hall will still have the support of an elite forward on his line when he returns. Between Hall, Krejci and Pastrnak, the Bruins project to have the second-best second line in the league. Pastrnak showed what a threat he is in his own right last year, since he spent time away from the team’s other two top forwards at even strength. He spent the highest percentage of his five-on-five ice time with Hall (62.3 percent) and Erik Haula (46.5 percent). Still, he put up 40 goals and 77 points in all situations in 72 games. The highlight of Pastrnak’s game is his lethal shot. The winger constantly challenges opposing goalies with his shot volume; no one shot at a higher rate than Pastnrak last year with 25.1 attempts in all situations. So it’s no surprise that his offensive creation slants toward shots over passing. Even though it’s predictable he’s the goal-scoring threat on his line, he still thrives; he can beat opponents in transition or while cycling around the offensive zone. The quality of his shots contributes to a high expected goal total, which he tends to outperform with his elite finishing talent. The one thing lingering over this season for Pastrnak is his contract status, with his team-friendly deal coming to an end next summer. McAvoy, on the other hand, is in Year 1 of a very lucrative contract worth $9.5 million a year, on average. It’s a contract he earned as one of the best defensemen in the league just five years into his NHL career. The Bruins’ No. 1 defenseman projects to be worth 4.1 wins, which trails only Cale Makar’s 4.8 in the league. He was close behind the Colorado star in the Norris race for much of last season, too. What held him back was his scoring last year. The offensive influence was there with a league-leading 63.2 percent expected goals rate among defenders. Maybe the offensive side of it was pumped up a bit by playing with players like Marchand and Bergeron consistently. But his elite defense plays a major role as well. It’s the reason he projects to provide so much value. McAvoy is one of the best defenders at suppressing scoring chances against in the league, while going up against some of the toughest competition. He can limit entries against, retrieve pucks under pressure, and help move the team out of their own end. And he maintained that high level regardless of who he was paired with. Initially it was Grzelcyk through much of the season, before the Bruins added Lindholm at the deadline. Together, Lindholm and McAvoy earned a 66 percent expected goals rate through 10 games to end the regular season with even better results to show for it. McAvoy comes into the season projected to provide the second-most defensive value in the league, with the only player ahead of him his frequent partner, Grzelcyk. We know who’s really driving the bus there. Lindholm’s best individual days may be behind him, but Boston could revitalize his game. Having the team support of this Bruins squad is a major difference from the Ducks these last few years. Now, it should be able to pinpoint positives from him besides zone-entry defense. As important as defense is in Boston, with their early-season injuries, there’s even more emphasis on their goaltending. Jeremy Swayman may not have had the easiest year in 2021-22, after getting bumped to the AHL for Tuukka Rask’s short-lived return, but he earned more starting time when it mattered the most. That’s what the Bruins need him to build on to help get them through the first few months of the year. The support One of the Bruins’ biggest issues last season was their lack of effective depth. This season, that area is projected to be playoff-caliber: B-plus, seventh overall, with 8.6 wins of value coming from the group. Grzelcyk leads the way here. His 2.4 GSVA is bullish, putting him between Kris Letang and Morgan Rielly. Both of those players, at this point in their career, are mid- to low-end first defensemen. Seeing Grzelcyk mixed in with them might be a little jarring, partially because of the shine McAvoy gets, and partially because Grzelcyk’s point production, up to this point in his career, hasn’t been special. That’s not his calling card anyway — it’s that when he’s on the ice, great things happen at five-on-five at both ends of the ice. And that’s been the case for years. That probably has more to do with who he shares the ice with, but he holds up his end of the bargain by being a strong puck-mover and even better at limiting zone entries against. Consider him McAvoy’s own Devon Toews on the top pair — albeit, a definite budget version. Grzelcyk is not likely to rank up gaudy point totals this season, either; shoulder surgery is likely to cost him a month or so of games, so he’ll be in an early hole. Still, Grzelcyk should get a chance to turn his demonstrated play driving into points. Boston’s forward depth is improved, and Lindholm can play sidekick for McAvoy. What should remain is Grzelcyk being The Guy on a second pair where his likely partner is Brandon Carlo, a defense-only guy who should be more than happy to let Grzelcyk do all the offensive work. Last year the duo had a 57.6 percent expected goals rate together which should dispel any notion that Grezlcyk is simply a McAvoy byproduct. Still, the balance in the top four is the point and the way it’s currently assembled feels like the most use of talent there. If Grzelyck plays another 420 minutes at five-on-five with McAvoy, as he did last season, something will have gone wrong. The third pair, whenever McAvoy and Grzelcyk are healthy, will make more sense. Mike Reilly’s first season of three at $3 million AAV didn’t go according to plan, but he still showed some high-end ability to turn puck retrievals into zone exits; his 11.46/60 were with ex-Bruin Torey Krug, for example. One way to cut back on D-men prone to the big mistake is feeding them easier minutes. Reilly can thrive there, especially if Boston wants to build up his trade value. Derek Forbort and Connor Clifton seem set as an opening night pairing. They had nearly 530 effective minutes together last season, with expected and actual goal rates over 55 percent. Anton Stralman, signed to a PTO ahead of camp, could slot in on the right side of the third pair. He’s 36 now, and certainly not the play-driving dynamo we saw with the Rangers and Lightning, but still could be an interesting band-aid. Jakub Zboril is back after ACL surgery and a big reason to think Reilly could be on the way out; he’d shown some promising signs as a third-pair left shot. Pavel Zacha and Jake DeBrusk seem set to start with Bergeron. That’s a major opportunity for Zacha, who had 15 goals for New Jersey last season but saw his finishing dip (1.19 goals/60 to 0.76; 16.5 shooting percentage to 10.1). He’s got size and play-driving ability that make him worth the shot. DeBrusk is proof of concept there. He and Bergeron had expected and actual goal rates of 70 percent in more than 300 minutes together last season, mainly down the stretch. DeBrusk had 18 goals in February, March and April. On balance, Craig Smith has been as advertised with Boston; he’s a good play driver who will get you two points/60 or thereabouts. He also crammed most of last season’s production into a single month. Not ideal. Charlie Coyle struggled to fill the void at 2C and returns to a role that fits him a little better thanks to the return of Krejci. Yes, we saved him on purpose. How a 35-year-old who spent last season in the Czech Republic will fare is anyone’s guess, but Krejci was a terrific playmaker up through his (first) final season. Sticking him with Pastrnak early makes all the sense in the world. Hall will benefit, too. The production of that line, with Marchand out, will be interesting to track — and vital for Boston if they want to avoid digging themselves a hole. The best case Rumors of Boston’s demise were greatly exaggerated as the team survives the early season and goes on a serious run afterward, winning the division. The Bruins defeat Tampa Bay and Toronto en route to the Final where they win it all, allowing Bergeron to ride off into the sunset with one more championship ring. The worst case Rumors of Boston’s demise were not at all exaggerated and the team digs a deep hole early in the season. Age catches up with Bergeron, Marchand and Krejci and the team struggles to climb back into the playoff race. The bottom line The Bruins have hurdles to face to open this season with numerous key injuries. That’s going to be particularly tough to overcome in a division as deep as the Atlantic. But returns are what keep the Bruins’ contender status — from Bergeron and Krejci, to obviously McAvoy and Marchand when healthy. If Boston can weather that early-season storm, there’s championship potential here — and this year, even with all the challenges associated with their start, the potential is probably the highest it’s going to be with this core. That adds some pressure to the Bruins, who are facing a ticking clock on just how long they can be at this level. Editorial note: gently caress The Bruins
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Oct 3, 2022 13:04
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The wild are so completely cap-hosed until Kaprizov's contract is nearly up - it'll be interesting to see if they continue to get lucky on prospects and turning players like Ryan Hartman into first line centers somehow but all things considered they seem like they're in a decent position to ride out the next 3 lean years as a competitive team that needs to get insanely lucky to go the distance because they can't spend like everybody else
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Oct 3, 2022 13:05
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Aye Doc posted:https://www.idnes.cz/hokej/extraliga/jaromir-jagr-kladno-budoucnost.A221002_204248_hokej_rou It’s sad but I’m also glad for him? It sounded like the spark was gone years ago.
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Oct 3, 2022 13:06
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4 days until the soft start of the regular season. Definitely the most hyped I've ever been for a Preds vs Sharks game
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Oct 3, 2022 13:11
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:The wild are so completely cap-hosed until Kaprizov's contract is nearly up - it'll be interesting to see if they continue to get lucky on prospects and turning players like Ryan Hartman into first line centers somehow I think it’s less luck on Hartman suddenly being a 1C center and more his wingers are Kaprizov and Zucc.
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Oct 3, 2022 13:13
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Which is worse, Succ, Zucc, or Zuck
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Oct 3, 2022 13:15
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Aye Doc posted:https://www.idnes.cz/hokej/extraliga/jaromir-jagr-kladno-budoucnost.A221002_204248_hokej_rou If anyone has earned a proper retirement, it's Jags. How quickly does he get mega-fat?
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Oct 3, 2022 13:33
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Chad Sexington posted:If anyone has earned a proper retirement, it's Jags. In like 6 months he's gonna weigh 300. It's kind of a sad story, I think it was 3 or 4 years ago now he's been saying he doesn't want to play hockey anymore but he has to because if he stops the team he owns will fold.
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Oct 3, 2022 14:44
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:The wild are so completely cap-hosed until Kaprizov's contract is nearly up - it'll be interesting to see if they continue to get lucky on prospects and turning players like Ryan Hartman into first line centers somehow This is what makes such a high projection absolutely amazing to me. They’re running 14m lower than everyone else, and there’s not really a way to get around it. I keep saying that dumping Parise and Suter was probably the right idea and the way they’ve been playing in pre season has been really pretty fun to watch even with all the people pushing for spots. Nic Petan has been interesting and playing much bigger and better than I expected and should be capable of filling in on injuries, but I don’t see him forcing anyone out unless Dewar or Duhaime have a really bad time. MAF will be the biggest question. He’s been good in preseason, but that will be tested this week more than the last. I don’t really know about Gustavsson, as a backup I guess okay? If MAF gets injured it’s going to be a problem.
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Oct 3, 2022 14:45
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I expect Minnesota to finish 2nd or 3rd with a pretty high point total, just because the Blues are also in decline and other than the Avs the rest of that division sucks real hard. But I don't know that any good team in the league, not even Edmonton, is as totally dependent on one player as they are. If Kaprizov goes down for a couple months at any point kiss that team goodbye. Creed Bratton seems to be a pretty drat good coach. There's nothing tactically interesting about him that I know of but that team's been getting remarkably good performances out of a number of whozats the past couple years. But maybe it really is just all Kaprizov. Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 15:23 on Oct 3, 2022 |
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Oct 3, 2022 15:19
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Koopa Kid posted:The Leafs fired this guy last season, but seems he still agrees Just found a landing spot at the Athletic. His intro post was pretty interesting. https://theathletic.com/3630588/2022/10/03/charron-what-i-learned-working-in-an-nhl-front-office?source=user-shared-article Don't know how much of it is face saving for being fired, but it sounds like a big part of his role was as stats communicator translating analytics to actionable items for coaches and management (like don't sign guys that just doubled their shooting percentage!). And that role changed as people got more comfortable with the data and didn't need a translator to go between the nerds and coaches. One interesting bit about the objectivity of data and analytics: quote:If I write a report detailing why a particular player should get more ice time and send it to the coaching staff, if that player puts up a lousy effort leading to a bad goal against, that stings on an emotional level greater than the feeling of losing nine consecutive series-clinching games. It becomes harder to defend players or find the time to seek data points in their favor if they’re constantly making the same mistake or not appearing to play an honest game. It also becomes harder, when those mistakes happen, to not pick up the nearest object and hurl it at a wall.
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Oct 3, 2022 15:25
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lol honest to $DEITY when I was reading that first long paragraph I was thinking "it's ok dude you can just go ahead and say Galchenyuk, we know who you're talking about"
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Oct 3, 2022 15:29
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https://twitter.com/charlieo_conn/status/1576945818648858625 oh sweet the one defenseman that doesn't blow total rear end is gonna get moved out too hell yeah
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Oct 3, 2022 15:46
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pseudodragon posted:One interesting bit about the objectivity of data and analytics: Was it Dom who admitted to being addicted to gambling? Imagine having temper tantrums like a chronic sports gambler when things don't go your way but it was just your 9-5 job tanking instead of a prop bet. e: vv holy poo poo that Metro projection Chad Sexington fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Oct 3, 2022 |
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Oct 3, 2022 15:48
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Evolving hockey posted their full point projections https://twitter.com/EvolvingHockey/status/1576904905045946368
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Oct 3, 2022 15:55
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0.0% chance at playoffs? That is a real accomplishment.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:04
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Who did Tampa lose that's got them dropping to a wildcard in multiple projections? I will not read more than 10 words.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:05
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Aphrodite posted:Who did Tampa lose that's got them dropping to a wildcard in multiple projections? Palat and McD
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Oct 3, 2022 16:11
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T-Bone posted:Evolving hockey posted their full point projections lolling that the model likes the Devils better than the Rangers. I hope half of that is true. Also unclear what the point of posting those uncertainties is since they're all +/- 8 pts even though there ought to be way more uncertainty with teams with lots of young unknowns.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:13
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Aphrodite posted:Who did Tampa lose that's got them dropping to a wildcard in multiple projections? Hagel is that much of an anchor.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:16
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Lmao the Kraken
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Oct 3, 2022 16:16
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Eric the Mauve posted:lol honest to $DEITY when I was reading that first long paragraph I was thinking "it's ok dude you can just go ahead and say Galchenyuk, we know who you're talking about" The scorpion and frog story but it's Alex Galchenyuk vs. the entire Maple Leafs front office
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Oct 3, 2022 16:18
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Chad Sexington posted:Palat and McD rex rabidorum vires posted:Hagel is that much of an anchor. These 2 answers are 10 words so I accept both.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:20
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Chad Sexington posted:Was it Dom who admitted to being addicted to gambling? I don't think it was as much him getting addicted as it was feeling responsible for people losing money (and maybe worsening their own gambling addictions) if they followed his betting guide religiously and it took a downturn
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Oct 3, 2022 16:24
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more hockey model projected standings for you all!! The blue and orange blob guy just released his predictions https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1576904791443345408 **obviously you gotta click through to his website to view cause that chart on his twitter post is near loving useless lol, typical McCurdy
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Oct 3, 2022 16:26
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tinstaach posted:I don't think it was as much him getting addicted as it was feeling responsible for people losing money (and maybe worsening their own gambling addictions) if they followed his betting guide religiously and it took a downturn I'm sure that was there too but he absolutely went into a spiral after his initial gains went sour and betting on his model got him seriously in the hole
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Oct 3, 2022 16:27
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Starsfan posted:more hockey model projected standings for you all!! Well it's pretty clear whose model values goaltending highly
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Oct 3, 2022 16:28
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project your gut all over the predictions thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4013932
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Oct 3, 2022 16:33
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Eric the Mauve posted:lol honest to $DEITY when I was reading that first long paragraph I was thinking "it's ok dude you can just go ahead and say Galchenyuk, we know who you're talking about" Also calls out Mikheyev in a "my job here is done" way. quote:The basics of hockey analysis are so ingrained within the Maple Leafs’ front office that they don’t need somebody at the table telling them why it doesn’t make sense to extend a player coming off a 21-goal season where he shot 14.3 percent, after previously only shooting 7.3 percent in his career.
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Oct 3, 2022 16:50
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Idiot journalists really still overestimate the Flyers when they can't even win a single preseason game with what's effectively close to their regular season roster. Lol. Lmao.
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Oct 3, 2022 17:22
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Do you think the guy who projects the Devils as 72% to make the playoffs would actually make a 1-to-2 bet on it? 'Cause I don't.
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Oct 3, 2022 17:30
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https://twitter.com/SBJ/status/1576975563872522240 oh good
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Oct 3, 2022 17:48
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edit: too slow. Still: gently caress, more ad news. NHL introduces virtual board ads, as seen in the previous World Cup of Hockey. I really did not like them. https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id...ena-rink-boards 
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Oct 3, 2022 17:49
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I wonder how angry companies buying the physical ads are going to be about the fact their stupid logo doesn't end up on national TV 41 times a year anymore.
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Oct 3, 2022 17:57
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It's gonna be all gambling ads instead of mostly gambling ads
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Oct 3, 2022 17:57
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I've been saying for a long time that what hockey is really missing is flashing internet popup ads.
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Oct 3, 2022 18:01
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Hand Knit posted:I've been saying for a long time that what hockey is really missing is flashing internet popup ads. I want premium ad free streams please.
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Oct 3, 2022 18:01
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xzzy posted:I want premium ad free streams please. They're gonna implement that but also not change their psychotic blackout rules.
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Oct 3, 2022 18:02
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