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xzzy
Mar 5, 2009

The Kraken are undefeated too!

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Aces High
Mar 26, 2010

Nah! A little chocolate will do




Which teams still haven't even made it to the Finals? Have the Jets/Coyotes made it? Pretty sure the Thrashers/Jets haven't and I feel like Minnesota hasn't either

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Aces High posted:

Which teams still haven't even made it to the Finals? Have the Jets/Coyotes made it? Pretty sure the Thrashers/Jets haven't and I feel like Minnesota hasn't either

Columbus, Minnesota, Seattle, Arizona/Winnipeg, and Winnipeg/Atlanta. Everyone else has made it at least once.

Jhet
Jun 3, 2013

Jamwad Hilder posted:

Columbus, Minnesota, Seattle, Arizona/Winnipeg, and Winnipeg/Atlanta. Everyone else has made it at least once.

It feels like we should be able to count the Northstars, but at least the older generations got to see their Minnesota team lose in the finals. The Wild were closest in their 2003 embarrassing loss to Anaheim in the WCF.

TheBizzness
Oct 5, 2004

Reign on me.
The Blues and Lightning should play now for some sort of second place trophy (I miss hockey already and I think it would be a good matchup)

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
If the Dallas Stars didn't exist anymore I think it'd be fair to count the North Stars '91 appearance toward the current Minnesota team, but they do exist.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Yeah but I think the point here is that Minnesota fans at least got to see their team reach the Cup Finals once (and if they're 40 or older today they even remember it!*) but Winnipeg fans have not.

* (I mean it was so long ago that Jaromir Jagr was a rookie)

Good Will Hrunting
Oct 8, 2012

I changed my mind.
I'm not sorry.

TheBizzness posted:

The Blues and Lightning should play now for some sort of second place trophy (I miss hockey already and I think it would be a good matchup)

Me too. Desperate miss it already. This was probably the season where I watched the least regular season hockey. I picked up watching in 2009 with my college roommate and friend but mentally, after the Avs collapses in the playoffs post-rebuild (and being a fan of another team who collapses a lot in another spot) so many years in a row I needed a bit of a break from the constant stress and just didn't watch as much in general. Still followed and caught highlights but.... didn't force myself to stay awake on the east coast for every game. It let me enter the playoffs with a pretty zen feeling, which of course waned very quickly, but I feel like now that the Avs won a cup I'll be able to enjoy the regular season again next year without stressing.

Idk I'm broke brained and care too much about sports.

TheBizzness
Oct 5, 2004

Reign on me.
I would imagine the Avs will be the favorites again next year especially if they retain Kadri?

Good Will Hrunting
Oct 8, 2012

I changed my mind.
I'm not sorry.
I hope I can make it to a game in Colorado. Had a trip fully planned right before Covid hit, and the past few seasons things haven't worked out with timing. It's fun to see games at MSG, less fun at the Rock due to transportation for me but still a blast because hockey is inherently my favorite sport to watch live.... but I'd love to be able to see a new arena this coming year.

Simplex
Jun 29, 2003

TheBizzness posted:

I would imagine the Avs will be the favorites again next year especially if they retain Kadri?

The Avs have $26 million in cap space but Manson, Kuemper, Burakovsky, Kadri and Nichushkin are all UFAs. I think Burakovsky and Manson are easy deals to get done and will be back. I don't know what the market will be for Kuemper, he's got Stanley Cup pedigree, but he wasn't very good in the playoffs, and Seattle is deeply regretting giving a bunch of money to Grubauer last year.

I figure Nichushkin is going to get silly money from someone who's definitely going to regret it, and so Colorado is going to be sitting at around 10 million in cap space, but also needing to extend MacKinnon next year. A Kadri deal could get done, I think, if he's willing to take a slight hometown discount.

My guess is that Plan B would be to move Girard for a 2C, and see what cheaper options there are for a 3rd pair defenseman.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

TheBizzness posted:

I would imagine the Avs will be the favorites again next year especially if they retain Kadri?

Repeating is extremely difficult so based on that alone, *a* favorite yeah but not *the* favorite.

In the betting lines yeah I imagine they'll have the lowest odds.

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

Simplex posted:

The Avs have $26 million in cap space but Manson, Kuemper, Burakovsky, Kadri and Nichushkin are all UFAs. I think Burakovsky and Manson are easy deals to get done and will be back. I don't know what the market will be for Kuemper, he's got Stanley Cup pedigree, but he wasn't very good in the playoffs, and Seattle is deeply regretting giving a bunch of money to Grubauer last year.

I figure Nichushkin is going to get silly money from someone who's definitely going to regret it, and so Colorado is going to be sitting at around 10 million in cap space, but also needing to extend MacKinnon next year. A Kadri deal could get done, I think, if he's willing to take a slight hometown discount.

My guess is that Plan B would be to move Girard for a 2C, and see what cheaper options there are for a 3rd pair defenseman.

You also have Lehky whos gonna get stupid money next year if the Avs dont lock him down this year

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

Simplex posted:

The Avs have $26 million in cap space but Manson, Kuemper, Burakovsky, Kadri and Nichushkin are all UFAs. I think Burakovsky and Manson are easy deals to get done and will be back. I don't know what the market will be for Kuemper, he's got Stanley Cup pedigree, but he wasn't very good in the playoffs, and Seattle is deeply regretting giving a bunch of money to Grubauer last year.

I figure Nichushkin is going to get silly money from someone who's definitely going to regret it, and so Colorado is going to be sitting at around 10 million in cap space, but also needing to extend MacKinnon next year. A Kadri deal could get done, I think, if he's willing to take a slight hometown discount.

My guess is that Plan B would be to move Girard for a 2C, and see what cheaper options there are for a 3rd pair defenseman.

Whoever on here said Kuemper was the worst goalie to win the cup since Niemi was bang-on. Both are decent tendies who rode an absolute wagon of a team to a championship.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Avs let Kuemper walk and then picked up a journeyman to play with Francouz

Simplex
Jun 29, 2003

stab posted:

You also have Lehky whos gonna get stupid money next year if the Avs dont lock him down this year

Yeah I didn't include him because he's restricted, but my guess is he comes in around 3-4 million. I think guys like him are who is going to get screwed by the COVID escrow.

Matt Zerella
Oct 7, 2002

Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

The Dirty Burger posted:

Whoever on here said Kuemper was the worst goalie to win the cup since Niemi was bang-on. Both are decent tendies who rode an absolute wagon of a team to a championship.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Avs let Kuemper walk and then picked up a journeyman to play with Francouz

My money is on Georgiev.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Simplex posted:

The Avs have $26 million in cap space but Manson, Kuemper, Burakovsky, Kadri and Nichushkin are all UFAs. I think Burakovsky and Manson are easy deals to get done and will be back. I don't know what the market will be for Kuemper, he's got Stanley Cup pedigree, but he wasn't very good in the playoffs, and Seattle is deeply regretting giving a bunch of money to Grubauer last year.

I figure Nichushkin is going to get silly money from someone who's definitely going to regret it, and so Colorado is going to be sitting at around 10 million in cap space, but also needing to extend MacKinnon next year. A Kadri deal could get done, I think, if he's willing to take a slight hometown discount.

My guess is that Plan B would be to move Girard for a 2C, and see what cheaper options there are for a 3rd pair defenseman.

I think there's about 0 chance that can find a way to bring Kadri back, but we'll see. His value will probably never be higher and he's a free agent so now is the time to get the big deal.

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe
I think the Avs are the favorite based on having Makar, Toews, Byram, and a healthy Girard probably back.

that's an insane D that's head and shoulders above every other D in the league. Johnson and Manson to round it out is crazy, too. They're good complementary players.

the Rangers have a very promising D and a Norris winner by Makar is better than Fox, Toews is better than Lindgren by a lot, Byram is better than Miller by a lot. Trouba and Girard are probably a wash at this point. Johnson/Manson are leagues better than Schneider/Braun. Jack Johnson, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is better than Nemeth.

Tampa's D is great, but again, Makar/Toews/Byram is very clearly better than Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev.


Add to that MacKinnon/Ratanen/etc, and I think they're like the Wings/Hawks teams around twelve years ago, where they're so talented that they are a threat every year even with league average goaltending. tbh I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa in there again for a rematch, too.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

The Avs are the odds on betting favourite for the cup next year with the Leafs 2nd (lol).

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2378515/amp

The Dirty Burger
Aug 24, 2007

1st team all star
+
2nd degree manslaughter
=
3rd world clothing line

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

I think the Avs are the favorite based on having Makar, Toews, Byram, and a healthy Girard probably back.

that's an insane D that's head and shoulders above every other D in the league. Johnson and Manson to round it out is crazy, too. They're good complementary players.

Tampa's D is great, but again, Makar/Toews/Byram is very clearly better than Hedman/McDonagh/Sergachev.

Hedman/McD/Sergachev are all LD as well, it makes a big difference having Devon Toews as your superstar D’s partner on the top line compared to a guy like Jan Rutta

Jhet
Jun 3, 2013

ThinkTank posted:

The Avs are the odds on betting favourite for the cup next year with the Leafs 2nd (lol).

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2378515/amp

We haven’t even had free agency or a draft yet, how are there already odds.

Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

ThinkTank posted:

The Avs are the odds on betting favourite for the cup next year with the Leafs 2nd (lol).

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2378515/amp

Is there a way to short a hockey team?

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Jhet posted:

We haven’t even had free agency or a draft yet, how are there already odds.

It's gambling not science

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Jhet posted:

We haven’t even had free agency or a draft yet, how are there already odds.

As mentioned they're gambling odds and they shift daily. Plus short of a team acquiring McDavid in a trade I don't think there's a lot that could occur in the summer that would dramatically rearrange those top few teams. Gaudreau and Forsberg (to a lesser extent) are the only big name free agents and there are a few good players on the trade block but no franchise altering pieces.

This isn't the NBA where you can dramatically reverse the fortunes of a team in a couple weeks. At most some middling teams will look to improve to a top ten spot and some top ten teams will decline to being playoff also rans.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

ThinkTank posted:

The Avs are the odds on betting favourite for the cup next year with the Leafs 2nd (lol).

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2378515/amp

They mentioned this during the ESPN post game the other night and basically everyone there laughed.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Letang is a pretty drat huge free agent. Whoever gives him a giant 5 year contract will regret it in a couple years but he is still elite right now.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

I think the Avs are the favorite based on having Makar, Toews, Byram, and a healthy Girard probably back.

that's an insane D that's head and shoulders above every other D in the league. Johnson and Manson to round it out is crazy, too. They're good complementary players.

I don't think the Avs can afford to re-sign Jack Johnson, especially after the playoffs he just had.

stab
Feb 12, 2003

To you from failing hands we throw the torch, be yours to hold it high

Simplex posted:

Yeah I didn't include him because he's restricted, but my guess is he comes in around 3-4 million. I think guys like him are who is going to get screwed by the COVID escrow.

Lol he was on 2.4 with a qo of 2.6.

His long term will be stupid like 5.5-6 AAV

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

eXXon posted:

I don't think the Avs can afford to re-sign Jack Johnson, especially after the playoffs he just had.

He was terrible in the playoffs just like he always is, just not as exposed because they weren't overplaying him like all his other employers have. They were good enough to survive having him as their sixth dman.

He is now Stanley Cup Champion Jack Mother loving Johnson so he is definitely about to be comically overpaid and overplayed yet again, but the Avs appear to be aware he sucks and aren't going to care.

Kilometers Davis
Jul 9, 2007

They begin again

ThinkTank posted:

This isn't the NBA where you can dramatically reverse the fortunes of a team in a couple weeks.

Why not? What’s the difference? Not challenging your point I’m just curious about what you mean.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

Kilometers Davis posted:

Why not? What’s the difference? Not challenging your point I’m just curious about what you mean.

An NBA superstar is directly involved in about 80-85% of a basketball game (~40 out of 48 minutes, and playing on both ends). An NHL superstar is directly involved in only about 35-40% of the play, or ~45% if he is a defenseman or goalie. One superstar can personally affect the success of a basketball team far, far more than of a hockey team, simply because of the respective sports' natural limits on how much of a game one player can be involved in.

(The effect is even more dramatic in baseball, where a team can have the two best players in the sport and still fail to reach the playoffs because the max amount of a game any one player can affect is only about 15%)

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 20:03 on Jun 28, 2022

Misanthrope
Jun 10, 2001

QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK QUACK
Also NHL GMs are the most risk adverse group of an old boys club you'll ever see

DO YALL WANT A BOXC
Jul 20, 2010

HAHA! WOOOOOOO WOOO!
Fun Shoe

The Dirty Burger posted:

Hedman/McD/Sergachev are all LD as well, it makes a big difference having Devon Toews as your superstar D’s partner on the top line compared to a guy like Jan Rutta

you know, classically I think having a set top pair is regarded as better, but I think Tampa might be on to something with that. good defensemen IMO can carry a pair, and Tampa is always able to have at least one pretty good defenseman out there at all times. considering how much GMs like to trot our garbage third pairs and just lose momentum and give up tons of chances when they're out there, Tampa's strategy of "let's always have at least one competent guy out there" might be really good.

I noticed that against the Rangers, where Tampa would be more or less the same team regardless of what defensive pair was out there, but the Rangers would lose momentum when they put the 3rd pair out there most shifts, especially when Nemeth was still dressing.

eXXon posted:

I don't think the Avs can afford to re-sign Jack Johnson, especially after the playoffs he just had.

and speaking of third pairs, I am excited to see if Jack plays until like Chelios age now that he has a ring in addition to all the other blackmail he must have.

Wonderllama
Mar 15, 2003

anyone wanna andreyfuck?

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

you know, classically I think having a set top pair is regarded as better, but I think Tampa might be on to something with that. good defensemen IMO can carry a pair, and Tampa is always able to have at least one pretty good defenseman out there at all times. considering how much GMs like to trot our garbage third pairs and just lose momentum and give up tons of chances when they're out there, Tampa's strategy of "let's always have at least one competent guy out there" might be really good.

I noticed that against the Rangers, where Tampa would be more or less the same team regardless of what defensive pair was out there, but the Rangers would lose momentum when they put the 3rd pair out there most shifts, especially when Nemeth was still dressing.

tampa doesnt really have traditional defense pairs in a chronological sense. it's mostly situational, i.e. the cernak-McD pair was mostly out for defensive purposes. also serge is sometimes thrown onto the right side and paired with hedman for an offensive....uhhh hrmmm...."surge". mostly, minutes were fairly evenly distributed with hedman getting the most, and then McD and serge both right at about the same ~>20:00 ice time per game. hopefully cal foote can replace bogo next season and add a touch more of a presence on the right

really defensively the lightning played well, it was mostly the decimated forward corps that couldnt get any real attack going against colorado. losing our #1 center, and having the second line basically not participate was the undoing. they will have to call up some AHL grinders and just hope they find the next gourde/verhaughe again it would seem.

ThinkTank
Oct 23, 2007

Eric the Mauve posted:

An NBA superstar is directly involved in about 80-85% of a basketball game (~40 out of 48 minutes, and playing on both ends). An NHL superstar is directly involved in only about 35-40% of the play, or ~45% if he is a defenseman or goalie. One superstar can personally affect the success of a basketball team far, far more than of a hockey team, simply because of the respective sports' natural limits on how much of a game one player can be involved in.

(The effect is even more dramatic in baseball, where a team can have the two best players in the sport and still fail to reach the playoffs because the max amount of a game any one player can affect is only about 15%)

The other point to consider is that hockey is strongly luck based, moreso than really any other sport. It's essentially a slightly weighted coin flip even when it's the best team in the league versus the worst. It plays out over an 82 game season to mostly show the standings as reflective of talent level, but it's not anywhere close to exact.

Adding a couple superstars may up your odds of winning a few percentage points at most on any given night given that they only play a relatively small amount of the time and their actions are so heavily reliant on luck. The Oilers have the two best forwards in the game which in the NBA would almost certainly make them near the top of the league. In hockey they are a middling team for a variety of reasons but mostly because they can't play 55 minutes a game.

Aphrodite
Jun 27, 2006

Jhet posted:

We haven’t even had free agency or a draft yet, how are there already odds.

In theory you could lock in on a longshot now who suddenly makes a huge show in free agency/draft and ends up a much better contender.

They redo the odds constantly. Anyone who bet on the Blues in late 2018 or early 2019 before their surge would have made a ton, for example.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

ThinkTank posted:

The other point to consider is that hockey is strongly luck based, moreso than really any other sport. It's essentially a slightly weighted coin flip even when it's the best team in the league versus the worst. It plays out over an 82 game season to mostly show the standings as reflective of talent level, but it's not anywhere close to exact.

Adding a couple superstars may up your odds of winning a few percentage points at most on any given night given that they only play a relatively small amount of the time and their actions are so heavily reliant on luck. The Oilers have the two best forwards in the game which in the NBA would almost certainly make them near the top of the league. In hockey they are a middling team for a variety of reasons but mostly because they can't play 55 minutes a game.

Conference Finals baby

ImplicitAssembler
Jan 24, 2013

ThinkTank posted:

In hockey they are a middling team for a variety of reasons but mostly because they can't play 55 minutes a game.

Just wait a season or two and McDavid and Draisaitl will be.

Albino Squirrel
Apr 25, 2003

Miosis more like meiosis

ThinkTank posted:

The Avs are the odds on betting favourite for the cup next year with the Leafs 2nd (lol).

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2378515/amp

Is it wrong I'm kinda tempted to put something down on Arizona at 500-1?

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xzzy
Mar 5, 2009

Albino Squirrel posted:

Is it wrong I'm kinda tempted to put something down on Arizona at 500-1?

Odds are better than winning the mega millions I suppose.

But you're still throwing your money away!

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