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Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Cool, now everyone in the losers thread can have a couple months of reprieve from PAS making GBS threads up their thread until the Penguins win the Cup.

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Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
They're the two biggest shithead teams in the field so hell yeah it is.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Last year I just picked whichever team I'd personally rather see lose to win every series and finished near the top, so I'm sticking with the proven strategy this year.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I honestly assumed he went out with the ownership change.

That said though I'm really getting convinced they're blowing it up this summer and tanking for Bedard. Brian Burke's always dreamed of building a team with the Pittsburgh model and now here we are!

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
If you hope to win the Cup you'd rather play the Penguins, the Rangers are likely to win either matchup but they're going to come out of a Caps series with a couple injured dudes.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Penguins have 267 scored 226 allowed, the Caps are at 272 and 237. I know the fancies have a torrid love affair with the Penguins at 5v5 but in actual outcomes the Penguins' PP and PK are both better than the Caps' so the Caps come out as slightly the better team 5v5. With DeSmith instead of Jarry the teams are functionally identical and I don't know of any specific matchup issues that make one preferable to the other. So you'd rather play the one that doesn't have Tom Wilson on it.

Being afraid of the Penguins because they won Cups five years ago and have Crosby is completely irrational vis-a-vis the Caps who won the Cup four years ago and have Ovi. They're both fringe playoff teams (in the East at least) with bad goaltending.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 14:44 on Apr 28, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Whenever Bob starts doing Bob stuff the Panthers are gone, it's really that simple. They can beat anyone but won't win 4 straight playoff series, and obviously their Loadsa Goals style is ill suited for a sport where holding hooking and interference are totally fine.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

Koopa Kid posted:

So you’re telling me the Leafs need to fire Keefe and trade Marner for some random superstar on the outs with their current club, couldn’t agree more.

The closest analogue to Kawhi would have been Eichel for sure

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
They will, but it'll be more for the hubris of saying "Freddy Andersen and Antti Raanta looks good, we'll be fiiiiiiiine"

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I'm not so certain in the Hurricanes' case, either paying or losing Tony D is going to hurt them significantly in the short term and they have a cap crunch coming. Besides the whole not having a goalie because they don't believe in goalies thing.

The good news is the Metro is trending toward being pretty weak the next few years, with the Rangers and Hurricanes on top and the rest of the division being bad-to-terrible, unless the Flyers and/or Jackets can turn it around really quick. The Islanders aren't going to return to contenderdom, I don't think; the Penguins are going into the tank either this summer or next; it's unclear whether the Caps will follow suit or will just coast gently into irrelevance on the Ovi Train; the Devils are the Devils. With the Red Wings on the rise as soon as they fire Blashill, the Atlantic looks to be the tougher division for the foreseeable future.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 15:44 on Apr 29, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

Ginette Reno posted:

I don't see the Pens going into the tank next year. The rest of the metro is just such trash. Who is gonna replace them?

Maybe in a few years

I'm with you but the fact neither Letang nor Malkin (nor indeed any other pending UFA except Jeff fuckin' Carter) has re-signed, plus how totally checked out the team has looked the last month, really has me thinking FSG have decided to let everyone walk and start the tank a year or two sooner than strictly necessary and go for Bedard.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
It's far from certain that Malkin wants to come back. He may have decided a year ago he's loving off to Russia this summer. He certainly is playing like he's over Sullivan's bullshit and just waiting for it to be over.

Letang not already being re-signed is really worrisome though and I remain in terror that the Pens will let him walk and sign DeAngelo to replace him.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Kapanen is an RFA and they can and should either trade his rights or just let him walk.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

DJExile posted:

If yall really wanna see some dire poo poo, Flyers/Sens is at 7PM eastern

:yeshaha:

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
RIP RAS, you guys had a good year but the Pens are gonna beat better teams than yours on their way to the Cup.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
This is not true, hockey has been 100% solved except goaltending, which is unsolvable and explains 100% of all deviation between jfresh's predictions and actual results

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
If my team were playing the Blues I'd be hoping yhey call it super tight, no team thrives on uncalled holding and interference as much as the Blues do except maybe the Flames.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Translation, he is 100% out even if the series goes 7 and will probably have surgery soon.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

WeaponX posted:

I’ve seen some bad goalie puck handling, but chucking the puck into the slot with 5 minutes left in a tied game is truly something else.

Exactly what Jarry did last year

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I just want every series to go to Game 7 that's all, thank you Santa

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Man that Penguins-Rangers games was one of the ten funnest hockey games I have ever watched. Just finished watching it and wooooooo I'm buzzing.

My cool and good Pens fan buddy I watched it with commented during the second OT "every time I see Geno and Kapanen I think the Rangers are about to score and I'm probably gonna be right" and I said "maybe but the deeper into OT we go the more dangerous Geno and Kap are gonna get, since they don't waste energy playing defense." Felt like the Rangers had like 8 good chances to score and win and they just didn't get it done.

Shame DeSmith got injured during one of the best games I've ever seen him play. But I kind of think Domingue might be the better goalie, at least if he'll stop that infuriating loving thing where he jumps out over-aggressively to play the puck and then freezes once it's on his stick. He's going to give up at least one backbreaking worst-possible-time MAF tribute goal doing that before this series is over.

I love Sid and Geno and Jake and Tanger so much :allears: even if they go down in 5 now the memories of that game will always warm by cold dead blackened heart.

Ginette Reno posted:

I noticed Gallant doing that and was kind of confused why the Reaves line kept going out against Guentzel-Crosby-Rust.

The Rangers aren't even vaguely trying to disguise their strategy of trying to knock Guentzel out of the series ASAP. It's comically clear that's what Gallant is doing there

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 23:12 on May 4, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Yeah but Letang's an inhuman freak whose endless energy is fueled by his unquenchable hatred of all that lives and loves.

He really did dominate the game more and more as OT wore on. In theory a long OT should favor the Rangers since the Pens' best players are all old, but Crosby is in such ungodly shape and Letang has such freakish stamina that it seemed to go the other way.

DeSmith really kept the Pens in it in regulation though. Rangers totally dominated most of the first and could easily have scored 3 or 4 there.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
oh and P.S. the overturned goal was absolutely goalie interference, Kakko was already barreling full steam toward Desmith and would have run him over even if Dumo had been nowhere near him. Dumo is so slow and weak that he didn't get there in time to alter Kakko's trajectory in any case.

I hope Gallant is dumb enough to keep matching Reaves against Crosby/Guentzel but he probably isn't. If that continues though you can expect Reaves to get tossed for trying to murder Guentzel, he knows that's the job he's expected to do. Here's hoping he's not successful!

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I kinda like Domingue, at least relative to DeSmith. Throwing a mostly unknown (with the Pens at least) lefthanded goalie at them is probably +EV in any case, tough to gameplan for and they might be able to steal a series before the video scouts catch up. DeSmith's just a bog standard backup goalie ill suited to deal with all the odd man rushes the Penguins inevitably allow, and unless his play last night is actually the start of a sustained Inexplicable Hot Goalie streak it's only a matter of time before the Rangers ring up 4 in a period on him IMO.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 00:28 on May 5, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Random notes after speedrunning last night's games:

Wayne Simmonds is so bad. He is so so bad. Like we make fun of the Rangers for playing Ryan Reaves but Simmonds is worse.

Speaking of people who are very bad at their jobs, Sheldon Keefe is very bad at his job and should have been fired a long time ago. Keefe matching wits with Jon Cooper is like Rob Scuderi trying to defend Connor McDavid.

The Bruins are such shithead meltdown babies. It's not just being dirty, the Lightning for example are a very dirty team but it's coldblooded violence, they take every opportunity to injure an opponent because it's good strategy. The Bruins just lose their loving minds when things go against them. It's very reminiscent of the late Bylsma era Penguins and doesn't speak well to Cassidy's coaching at all. The Hurricanes don't have an NHL goaltender (thanks to a highly successful bit of purposeful violence by Pastrnak!) and the Bruins could have gotten back into and maybe won that game if they hadn't wasted half of it on an extended temper tantrum.

Every time the camera goes to a shot of Dean Evason on the bench my brain sees Creed from The Office and I can't take him seriously.

MAF has found the fountain of youth, but in his case that's not a good thing. He's really devolved into his old bad habits over the past couple years, poor positioning, frequently doesn't know where his post is, a lot of flailing around that looks really cool but isn't actually good goaltending.

Jonathan Quick looks really sad. I want to give him a hug and ask him if he's okay.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 16:16 on May 5, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Bruins are really good, but they've got to pull their heads out of their asses and play 60+ minutes of focused hockey, because the Hurricanes are really good too and are doing that. Especially if Raanta is out for a while the Bruins have a decent chance to get back and win the series, but beating the Hurricanes four games out of five is a tall task. The Bruins can't afford to piss away another period on road rage.

The Lightning are more prone to tune out and coast for stretches and get scored on than they were in the past (keeping up the intensity required to win the Cup for three straight years is really loving hard) and I don't think the Panthers are going to go deep. Whoever wins the Carolina-Boston series has a really good chance to win the Cup. Well, Carolina will need an NHL goalie to get that far.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 17:22 on May 5, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
You know, it seemed like several teams had a rash of guys going out with minor injuries at the same time and now I've started wondering if that was the team's way of hiding covid cases after private tests.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
They do not. It's intradivisional for the first two rounds except the bottom two teams in each conference can get switched into the other division based on their records and the division winners' records.

Why yes of course it's stupid as hell, this is the NHL after all.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
It will be an upgrade either way, or would be except it means Matheson is going to play 28 minutes. Dumo is Scuderi level cooked :sigh:

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Gonna need a lot of depth scoring if they're gonna give up 5 goals

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Yeah we might have vastly underestimated how much value Dumo was providing by keeping Matheson away from big minutes and tough matchups. Like Dumo looks really bad but part of that is that he's the LD1 going against the other team's best players, who invariably tear Matheson to shreds when they get a chance.

Would honestly rather see Pettersson getting the LD1 minutes, he may not be very good but at least he's not bad in an extremely exploitable way.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 02:56 on May 6, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Matheson is extremely good on the puck, on offense and defense. He's a physical beast, skates well, and has excellent coordination. Off the puck, however, he has absolutely no instincts whatsoever. He's totally, hopelessly lost, has no feel for the flow of play, has no idea about positioning, and makes the exact same mistakes over and over, which good teams and good players make a point of abusing. That's why he can do a job in a lower pairing, sheltered role but is a disaster if he has to take on the big boys.

I honestly don't know why he's a defenseman or ever was a defenseman. Seems to me like he'd be more natural in a tightly scripted Physical Winger type of role.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Pens have Crosby's line which tries to score, and three other lines which try to kill time, ideally in the attacking rather than defending zone, until Crosby Guentzel and Rust have enough wind to get back out there. That's all the Penguins' forwards do right now. The lines that don't include Geno and Kap are pretty drat good at it. But you're not going to get far with only one line that can score at all.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 04:10 on May 6, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The single most important player in the league to his team right now is Devon Toews, he is the only line of defense against JMFJ playing 26 minutes a night and dragging Makar into the abyss.

e: I have been informed JMFJ is not in fact playing so congrats on your Cup Avs fans

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 18:43 on May 6, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
I can't help but notice that the aftermath of almost every goal the Blues allow involves Justin Faulk standing 10 feet from the net rolling his eyes

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
Part of Ovi's brilliance is that he is not at all a selfish player, he will happily pass off to an open teammate or just be a decoy if it helps the Caps score.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
One of the most shocking developments I have ever seen in my life is that the refs are actually calling hooking and holding and stuff. In the playoffs!!!

I usually roll my eyes at talking heads banging on about Desire and the Will To Win because almost all players that reach the NHL playoff level have that, but I believe it is certainly true that it's really hard to keep that level of mental intensity up to chase the Cup when you've won it the last two years already. Tampa has been downright lazy at times and the Leafs have burned them for it. I assume those quotes from Cooper are more because he's annoyed at his team's inconsistent defensive effort (goal scoring is not the problem for them, is what he's saying) than playing psychological games with the Leafs.

But also the Leafs and Oilers look so much better than they have in previous postseasons in very large part because the refs are, for the first time since time immemorial, actually calling obstruction penalties. In the playoffs!!!!!!

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 21:51 on May 7, 2022

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X

ThinkTank posted:

They do this every year for the first few games of the first round but the moment they get to elimination games the whistles travel to the shadow realm and are never heard from again

I don't remember it being this consistent even in the first three games before (like last year the Oilers got swept in large part because you could mug McDavid and Draisaitl at gunpoint and it would be deemed a Good Hockey Play whereas that is definitely not true this year) but yeah you're almost certainly right about what's coming.

Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
The Panthers have been Maple Leafs South for years, beats hell out of me why people are shocked they're puking all over themselves in the playoffs yet again

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Eric the Mauve
May 8, 2012

Making you happy for a buck since 199X
By the way, how many more years is it now that the Kings' goalie will be better than my team's?

I'm kinda just annoyed at the Panthers because after the Lightning inevitably come back to beat the Leafs in 7 they're going to get yet another loving bye in the second round. I've never actually rooted for Tom Wilson to kill someone before so I'll get to experience a new feeling at least, I guess.

Eric the Mauve fucked around with this message at 23:19 on May 7, 2022

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