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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Just got caught up with S3 and the tech really continues to feel a decade too early for me. I know it's an alternate timeline, but it's still only 25 years since Apollo 11. I really miss the retro feeling of the earlier seasons, with the name dropping of Aliens it makes me wish their ships were all decked out instead with CRTs and the like.

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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


In terms of the speed of development it's just a little disappointing because this season is the first where the show doesn't feel alternate history anymore. In the space of 9 years from 1983 to 1992 they jumped the equivalent of 25 years in our world. The remarks about how it would take them 7 years to be able to build a habitable Mars ship clashes up against the fact that it only took 9 years to go from the US testing the first experimental reusable launch vehicle to a private company having a full space hotel in orbit.

That said, none of that is really disruptive to the overall plot, just a letdown when the first couple of seasons had the real sense of "this could have easily been how things really happened".

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I think they'll avoid 9/11 if only because Ron Moore explored 9/11 and the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and insurgencies quite a bit on BSG.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Penitent posted:

Are we thinking their version of the Monica Lewinsky scandal will be Ellen getting outed?

Absolutely.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


My speculation on where the season is gonna go:

-Ellen has a homosexuality related scandal and is impeached, leaving office.
-Margot loses her position/is prosecuted. Either through through being revealed, or revealing herself as a gently caress you to the agents blackmailing her.
-The existing anti-NASA sentiment combined with the Ellen and Margot scandals give NASA political opponents a perfect storm to point to the agency as being irresponsible, too powerful, and without oversight.
-NASA has many of its operations shifted to private industry, governed by political panels like the one Margot set up for astronaut selection.
-One of the last scenes of the season will be a cliché shot of someone (probably Aleida) walking out of mission control and turning off the lights.

I also think it's possible that they will still do a collapse of the USSR, just happening a few years later than it did in our universe.

Senor Tron fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Jul 5, 2022

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Spacebump posted:

This is basically what I think will happen. At the same time, this show tends to be optimistic. I’d be shocked if they end the season without some kind of hope for next season.

Absolutely, last scene fast forward (assuming the same format as the first two seasons) is probably an international Mars colony, their equivalent of the ISS.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I wonder if it counts as space piracy if the one who steals back control of the ship from the company is it's commander.

Edit: did I miss a few months timeskip at some point? Rewatching ep4 and how was the Russian astronaut on Sojourner having a live conversation with his wife?

Senor Tron fucked around with this message at 13:13 on Jul 7, 2022

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I know we've seen some shots of landings on Mars in the trailer, but haven't gone back to look at that intentionally. How I think things will go with the Mars landing:

They get control of Phoenix, and form an alliance with the American and Soviet astronauts that through fuel restrictions and the like works out that they can all land on Mars, but then use the Phoenix landers to return home on the same vessel.

We've seen Ed grow a lot, going from his initial time on Jamestown holding a Cosmonaut prisoner to now being willing to give up landing on Mars entirely to save Cosmonauts. My bet is that we (or at least Earth) won't see who sets foot on Mars first, and they'll only turn on the camera after American, Soviet, and Private boots are all on Mars, standing there together.

Senor Tron fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Jul 7, 2022

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I'm still expecting Margot/Ellen double scandals to cripple NASA, but am really hoping for some clever working by Margot.

Right now the world sees the Soviets as having had an unfortunate accident, but that just being a bad roll of the dice and ultimately they're also being credited as jointly making it to Mars first.

Margot could make it clear to her blackmailers that she is willing to expose herself. If that happens sure she probably goes to prison, but the Soviets are also exposed as incompetent, only able to get to Mars by stealing years old US technology, and even then not being able to use it properly. All the first on Mars victory at that point shines firmly on the USA

So she's done working for them from this point, and Sergei plus his family are to be allowed to move to the US. If they decline, then she will expose them.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Grand Fromage posted:

Which they also copped to, they just really wanted moon shuttles because they're cool.

Goofy yeah, but after watching Illectros video on it I reckon it could have worked if there was a combination of fuel tanks in the cargo bay, fueled in orbit, and an orbital booster stage that gives the Orbiter a kick to the moon before detaching and returning to Earth/Lunar orbit to be refueled with fuel made from lunar water.

Yeah it's goofy and inefficient, but honestly I like the idea that even in the FAM universe the one constant is the Shuttle Program being inefficient and used in bizarre ways.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Comrade Fakename posted:

NASA went to Mars in a little ship for the people and then sent the rest of the cargo separately. Soviets and Helios just made big ships that would take the whole shebang along. So presumably a bunch of modules from the Helios ship will detach and land on the planet. Also likely that the NASA ship will get back to orbit by setting up a proper launch pad (and maybe a booster?) with the cargo.

That said, the show previously made a big deal about them needing to send the cargo on an ambitious slingshot around Venus to make it in time. It wouldn't surprise me if that ended in failure somehow and the NASA/Soviet crew had to cooperate with the Helios crew to set up a joint base.

From what I recall the plan was still to get the supplies and fuel generator to Mars before Sojourner arrived.

There was talk in an earlier episode about how the Helios mission had a mobile hab. I assume the (trailer spoiler) huge loving rover is that?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


The fact that both NASA and Helios seem to have chosen landing sites near each other absolutely has to be leading towards something. A The Martian style trek where one of the missions has to go on a long-distance journey to help/be rescued by the other?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


ShowTime posted:

I can definitely see this happening. I can't imagine Ed Baldwin fits into the 2000 era as an astronaut, he's what, in his 50's in this era? They aren't gonna send a 60yr old diabetic to live on Mars or whatever. Joel Kinnaman is probably ready to move on to.

Ed is in his 60's. When he was bumped from the '96 Mars mission he was telling Karen how the next opportunity in '98 would be when he was getting close to being 70.

Does anyone know how they did the occasional zero-G shots like Kelly floating through Sojourner? Did they go the Vomit Comet route or just wires?

Senor Tron fucked around with this message at 15:02 on Jul 14, 2022

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jerusalem posted:

* Turns out Margo was absolutely right and Danielle was 100% the best person for the job, and beat Ed to Mars despite all that so-called "in-the-moment" stuff that Molly tried to claim she wouldn't be able to deal with as well as him.

Danielle hosed things only slightly less than the Soviets did. If not for the fact that Helios is nearby her rush to get to surface would have killed both the remaining US and Soviet crew members stranded on Mars with no way home.

As it is they were lucky that landing blind only hosed the engines, a few few back and the ship could have been torn in two on landing.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jerusalem posted:

To be fair, if Helios hadn't been nearby she wouldn't have felt the pressure to push for the surface when the dust started clearing at the last second, and just gone around for another orbit. If she hadn't had the Soviets onboard too (and lost two of her own crew in the process of saving them, which again only happened because Helios hosed everything up) then the Habitation Pods would have been set up with the right amount of food/water and space for the original complement.

Every step of the way she has had other people's dumb poo poo getting in the way of her doing her job at a high level. There was the drama over the Command of the flight from Molly jumping the gun which itself was based on a pissing match with Margo. Then her old friend basically throws a tantrum, tells her she only got the job because of affirmative action, then bails to join a private firm which pushes up the schedule from 4 years to 2. Her co-pilot falls off the wagon and she does the right thing by grounding him, and Helios (Ed specifically) immediately picks him up despite her laying out exactly why the old school bullshit "let's sweep alcohol and drug abuse under the carpet!" mentality couldn't continue.

But she does the work, she assembles her crew, she even adds Ed's daughter to the crew and doesn't just dismiss her as "Ed's daughter", taking onboard her argument for why her credentials beat that of the botanist they planned to take originally. She gets Sojourner up and out there, they prove that NASA and their nerds who don't have fighter pilot " balls" have more innovative tech than Helios when they deploy the solar sails, they're well-organized, competent, professional, and it's paying dividends. Then Helios and their bullshit flat management team override Ed's decision to save the Soviets (who are in this problem because they tried an Ed-style piece of bullshit that backfired on them) which leaves Danielle no choice but to do it instead, which she does without complaint even knowing it will likely mean they have no choice but to return to Earth.

Even then she's figuring out potential ways to salvage the trip and thinking on the fly like apparently Molly thought she wouldn't be capable of doing (by the way, Ed overriding Helios' command lockout comes thanks to one of those nerds he looks down on!), she keeps two crews together and everybody appears to be more than capable of working under her apart from the Russian commander who seems very much in the Ed mold, as the way they so casually got on immediately demonstrated. Even after making it to Mars, she has to deal with technical issues, the distraction caused by Will's revelation, and then she discovers the Soviets she saved and the private company that tried to stop her getting to Mars in the first place are icing NASA out to go divvy up a giant water resource together, and that Ed apparently had absolutely no issue with going along with that and had no intention of even giving her a heads-up despite a seemingly pathological hatred of Soviets up to that point in his life.

Basically, Danielle owns, and deserves better, is what I'm saying :colbert:

Overall Danielle is great, but attempting the landing when she did was absolutely 100% the wrong decision. Ed could take the chance because it was a smaller craft with just his and Danny's life on the line, and they also had full abort capability for if conditions ended up not clearing.

Danielle put the entire mission on the line and very nearly killed them all.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


QuoProQuid posted:

i personally cannot imagine a world where the videos wouldn’t be encrypted and run through like eight or nine bureaucrats at NASA to ensure they represented the agency in the best possible light

but, hey, that’s not dramatic

A decade earlier they had Tracey Stevens doing live late night spots from the moon, and in our universe astronauts on the ISS have internet access.

They will have some ability for encrypted conversations, and the Cosmonauts will be on a shorter leash for sure, but I have no doubt that some media organizations and individuals can have messages sent directly to them.

Hell, maybe some of these interviews are beamed straight into classrooms or the like for the novelty of being "live" from Mars.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


If we get any more real world politicians as US Presidents who do people reckon? Gore and McCain?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Kelly's kid will be born as the symbol of peace between the Americans and Russians, and after focusing on her face we'll get a 200,000 years later cut where the humans on Mars have long since forgotten their roots and are anxiously watching on TV as the first astronaut steps foot on their nearest habitable neighbour, Earth, kicking off a space race between the West Martians and East Martians.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Someone redub the Danny wedding scene with Karen going "wait wtf" as Faith Of The Heart plays.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Ok I've got a theory on where Will Tyler (the gay astronaut) is going in the story.

Assuming they do a similar thing to Apollo Soyuz, where the symbolic mission was enough to change the world, I think he is going to be a similar figure for gay rights. Someone is going to need a blood transfusion and he is the only match, leading to them all learning a valuable and cheesy lesson about all humans being the same.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jerusalem posted:

Dev's somehow gonna end up the new head of NASA. I know that makes ZERO sense, but it would be pretty funny if they booted Dev out as CEO so they could sell Phoenix to NASA, but Dev ends up running America's space agency and gets to do everything he wanted to do anyway, only now with a 75 billion dollar budget. Especially if the reasoning is,"Margo was secretly working with the Commies, so we replaced her with the man who was openly working with the Commies!"

I think Karen is gonna become head of NASA, as part of some wrangling where the commercial operations of NASA spin off and merge with Helios.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


They mentioned that the MSAM could barely make it with the number of people they have. With the NK discovery they probably can't take everyone up.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I expect that next week we're gonna start off with a 12bmonths earlier, so I'll give them time to justify his presence.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Everyone seems like they aren't going back to Mars.

USSR can't build the required tech without help.
Helios doesn't see it as worth the investment.
NASA is prob gonna get it's funding stripped.

There needs to be a reason to go back.

I reckon they bring the NK astronaut back, and doing the math realise they can't all go back up in the MSAM. Danny is feeling guilty because of the accident, and volunteers to stay behind.

Helios and the USA both end up in a situation where they basically have no choice but to go back to Mars to rescue him.

Another bit of speculation, spoilered because it will be a shocking thing if it happens: Terrorist attack on NASA. Margot dies, remembered as an American hero for all the dramas she has led NASA through.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


GABA ghoul posted:

You gotta put some big rear end quotes around manned space program here though. If you don't plan to bring the astronaut home or do any serious science on Mars you can probably cut 2/3 of the technology requirements and it becomes a much, much simpler challenge. In real life the Soviet Union managed to land on Mars in the 70s already and what NK did doesn't seem to be substantially more advanced.

A year or so of life support and all the rations, oxygen, and water storage and/or reuse needed for that is a big ask just for a single human. Hell even today if would probably be considered almost impossible to put someone inside something the size of a Soyuz and have them survive a year completely sealed away.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


With how close he is to their landing site it has to be intentional. I think the chances are 50/50 that:
1.NK were going for a first landing victory, not caring about losing the human involved, but had a comms failure at some point which means they don't know the landing actually happened.
2. They were planning on waiting until Helios/NASA leaves and then taking over their current infrastructure before the next Mars crews arrive. In this scenario they could retrospectively claim the first footprint on Mars victory, and also say that they have legit control over the Helios and NASA assets on Mars because they landed in NK territory and were abandoned. In this they wouldn't necessarily be wanting to hold them permanently, it would be about being globally recognised as a major space player.

Senor Tron fucked around with this message at 13:39 on Aug 6, 2022

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Spacebump posted:

Unless the North Korean has a vehicle, he couldn’t make it to the other landing sites. They had a line about the probe that being out of walking range.

He was 80km away.

For NASA/USSR/Helios that's a couple of days in a rover.

For a NK suicide mission that's what, a few days walk?

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Hyrax Attack! posted:

Yeah as someone else noted having her go from astronaut housewife to bar owner to space hotel operator to CEO of a MegaCorp was a bit clunky. Make Molly the CEO of Helios, she has the qualifications and Molly vs Margo is a much better arc.

Eh, it's been 25 years. I assume she has also done a bunch of learning in the majority of that time we haven't watched.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


GABA ghoul posted:

I'm not sure how NK could spin this into anything positive. It's going to be looked at as cruel and barbaric. Nobody is going to care about them having the first boot on the ground. The point of the space race from the Soviet perspective was to demonstrate that their society had achieved technological parity or even superiority to the west. The Sputnik shock created credibility and prestige for them in the west. They could have shot someone to the moon in a one-way trip before the US, but it would have been seen as primitive, barbaric and desperate. It's not a win.

Dev made the point of how many settlers of North America died. Sure they would be condemned now, but for all time they would be remembered as first long after no-one really cared about the details.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Desk Lamp posted:

I think it was just a general "the soviets are watching" thing.

Yeah, what the red light itself was isn't important. It was just part of a Soviet monitoring post, or on one of their suits, or a rover, or anything like that.

It was followed up on when Ed found the monitoring equipment and cosmonaut at the dig site.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Jerusalem posted:

It was also well established in season 2 that Molly will happily put her own health at risk to save other people, which is how she went blind in the first place. She wouldn't have stopped going back into that smouldering wreckage until she was 100% convinced every single living person had been evacuated, or until she died.... and welp, she died.

It was a great ending coming after her "We're selfish" speech to Karen. Because Molly really isn't. She's confident, can be arrogant, and doesn't back away from a fight for what she wants, but that's also because she usually knows that she is the best person for the job. She wants the mission to succeed whatever it is, and if the mission is getting as many people out of the building as possible then she'll do that as well.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


They did mention that half a dozen countries or so already had probes on Mars, and wasn't in mentioned earlier in the season that multiple countries have space stations?

NK being willing to do the suicide mission and the logistics of it seem the most unrealistic part, but assuming they were happy to do that then in the FAM universe this was probably intended to be the North Korean prestige project. In our universe in the late 80s/early 90s North Korea spent like 2% of their GDP (estimated to maybe close to 2 billion in 2022 dollars) building an incomplete hotel. In the FAM universe they clearly pushed that effort into a couple of long shot space shots, along with extra support from a more successful USSR.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryugyong_Hotel

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Regarding the NK lander, doesn't seem coincidence to me that it landed near the NASA and Helios landing sites.

I assume that NK was planning to announce the successful landing but say some of their supplies hadn't made it, then hitch a ride back with either of the other crews.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


bawfuls posted:

This doesn't track with the guy's actual behavior and statements. He didn't want to leave his crash site. Even after talking to Ed, he wanted to return to his post.

"Don't worry Lee, this isn't a one way mission, we have also sent supplies to Mars for while you wait for our followup mission to bring you back!"

They have to assume any communications back and forth with Mars would be intercepted, so no reason for him to know.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


It's unrealistic, but them being technically able to do it doesn't seem impossible given the other ways the FAM universe is already way beyond ours in abilities. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if the Phoenix alone has a similar mass to everything ever put into orbit (including shuttle orbiters) at the same point in our timeline.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


They also aren't in the era of unlimited basically free energy yet. They're reliant on Helium 3 from the moon, expensive to mine, and a lot of the new energy coming online from fusion plants will be going into things like transport.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


I thought they were gonna do a crazy heroic death for Ed, like on ascent he realises that fuel is burning quicker than they expect but doesn't say anything to Kelly, acting like everything is going to plan, fuel runs out at the moment she needs to separate, and while she jets to safety he falls back towards Mars, doomed but at peace with his life.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Maybe the women on the Soviet mission were infertile and the men on the US mission were.

Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


We skipped a few months, fair to assume that all the abortion debate happened, and then once Kelly made it clear she wanted to keep it they accepted that, probably even brought together in the idea that one good thing could come out of the train wreck of three combined missions. Would actually seeing any of that discussion and alienating some watchers by putting a character they like on the wrong side of the debate (whichever side they take) have added anything to the show?

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Senor Tron
May 26, 2006


Sivart13 posted:

how grim would it be for Kelly to have missed that airlock and just floated out to space forever

the show has a way of taking nearly impossible feats that no one in real life could ever do (Ellen's catch, Danny fixing Polaris), and making it a sure thing because the consequences of failure would be worse than Danny's plotline

and nothing is allowed to be worse than Danny's plotline

When Apollo 24 did it's unscheduled burn and hurtled off towards deep space I did legit think at first that they were just giving those characters a super grim ending. No tracking of where they had exactly gone, no communications, no idea if Deke and Ellen survived the initial burn, just gone forever.

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