|
I have been through two decades of election watching and I can say that the anecdotes I’ve seen in Election Day posts have always been all over the place and have basically never imparted any foreknowledge about the election results.
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:07
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 4, 2024 19:47 |
|
|
A GIANT PARSNIP posted:I have been through two decades of election watching and I can say that the anecdotes I’ve seen in Election Day posts have always been all over the place and have basically never imparted any foreknowledge about the election results. I think by mid-afternoon in 2016 we knew we were in for a rough ride.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:09
|
|
|
Zore posted:Right but you'd think they'd be going for more of the 'We're actually winning, the perfidious DEMOCRATS are gonna steal it!!' in that case. It's not like Kirk is above pushing that line. They wouldn't be conservatives if they weren't scared for no reason.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:10
|
|
|
Doom! https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1590032616660807680 https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590042484041986050 (Basing Democratic turnout with FL is pretty dumb though. If those were my choices too I'd be looking at a plane ticket, not a ballot.)
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:13
|
|
|
I mean Florida is hosed and VA had high mail in and ev I believe.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:14
|
|
|
Automata 10 Pack posted:Doom! Wow Florida is hosed Stunning analysis Dave. Tell me about Oklahoma next 
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:18
|
|
|
Gatts posted:I voted in Ohio Thank you, and my condolences.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:19
|
|
|
That's too bad. We knew Luria's race wasn't going to be easy, but bad turnout is sad to see. What about the other Virginia districts?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:19
|
|
|
One of the things i think the normal number crunchers missed is that populations from 2020-2022 shifted massively: people moved to different states/ cities to be with more like minded people. So it doesn't surprise me at all that Florida got more red and blue Miamians might have fled for better pastures. If you are a democrat and have means to leave, abandon Florida: it's not getting better but on the bright side it will soon be beneath the waves It's really become the chud Mecca. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 19:25 on Nov 8, 2022 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:22
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:One of the things i think the normal number crunchers missed is that populations from 2020-2022 shifted massively: people moved to different states/ cities to be with more like minded people. Got a source for that?
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:26
|
|
|
Not sure what this means for Holchul or how this compares to prior years, but the NYC BOE gave a vote update. https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1590027524213714944?s=20&t=7f4NCNyeS2kVqtv1o0gkpQ
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:26
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:That's too bad. We knew Luria's race wasn't going to be easy, but bad turnout is sad to see. The thing is that VA-02 had a really high EV turnout already (for a midterm) so I wouldn’t write it off just yet.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:26
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1590037314847531010 Have Kirk having a dooming fit. Has Kirk always been a political prognosticator as well as talking head not-vampire conservative wunderkind, or is he just especially invested in this race? TulliusCicero posted:Can this dude step in it enough that Biden has him arrested? So loving tired of hearing about this loving Grooming clown He could hold a press conference where he blows up an orphanage on live TV and wouldn't be arrested. Not really how that sort of thing works.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:26
|
|
|
Automata 10 Pack posted:Doom! Wasserman burying the lede a bit https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590047344208523265
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:27
|
|
Epic High Five posted:He could hold a press conference where he blows up an orphanage on live TV and wouldn't be arrested. Not really how that sort of thing works. If the orphans were still in there 
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:29
|
|
|
Youth Decay posted:Wasserman burying the lede a bit He’s also not counting the EV/Mail-in in that district where Ds have a larger edge than in 18 or 20. World’s gonna get a lot harder for guys like Dave with variance in voting channels as something that’s completely inconsistent State to state now. He’s probably right on Florida though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:30
|
|
|
Oh yeah, Florida’s hosed for at least the next two cycles. I think there is an interesting conversation to be had about what happens after DeSantis, because the Rs don’t have a great bench here because he, like Trump, devours anybody that takes his spotlight, but that’s 4 years away.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:36
|
|
|
i am a moron posted:Got a source for that? The sinking of the world's largest sandbar or the fact that chuds flock to Florida? Because I mean I have anecdotal evidence but every chud I knew back in Michigan either left for Florida or wanted to move there. Add to that it's probably one of the oldest populations in the country with the Villages and the crusty old Pro dictator Cuban ex-pats. Like Florida being flocked to by olds and chuds isn't exactly forbidden knowledge, they have been doing it for decades.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:36
|
|
|
TheGreyGhost posted:He’s also not counting the EV/Mail-in in that district where Ds have a larger edge than in 18 or 20. World’s gonna get a lot harder for guys like Dave with variance in voting channels as something that’s completely inconsistent State to state now. South Florida native here in full doom mode. I don’t think people are going to turn out today from the vibes of talking to people here and people being distracted by a hurricane. Feels really bad and insanely frustrating.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:36
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:The sinking of the world's largest sandbar or the fact that chuds flock to Florida? Sure but you made a couple of other assertions I’d like to see numbers on. Wasn’t trying to call you out, was genuinely curious if there were election-making-or-breaking interstate migratory patterns that would factor into this election.
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:40
|
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:That's too bad. We knew Luria's race wasn't going to be easy, but bad turnout is sad to see. I'm observing for the D's in NOVA. Volunteered for Spanbergers district but the local party badly messed up the volunteer effort there and am now monitoring safe blue districts. First polling station, Beyer's district, positive signs for turnout but hard to translate numbers to percentages cuz of unknowns of #s of absentees. By 11 there were close to 450 votes and steady trickle of people. This was more activity than I have generally seen on Election Day in VA suburbs. Now in Connelly's district at a college campus. Much lower turnout and lots of provisional ballots. Apparently some trump weirdos are harassing people at a nearby polling station because there is a mayor's race of interest to them. Wish I could be more involved in a competitive district. At least I'm doing something which helps keep the doom and gloom feelings and the dreaded wait for results at bay.. for now
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:49
|
|
|
Dems performed horribly in FL in both 2018 and 2020, two elections in which the generally accepted consensus is that Dems did well. That they are continuing to perform horribly there really shouldn't come as a surprise, nor do I think it's necessarily indicative of how the midterms are going elsewhere. VA-02 is a lot more interesting/scary though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 19:56
|
|
|
i am a moron posted:Sure but you made a couple of other assertions I’d like to see numbers on. Wasn’t trying to call you out, was genuinely curious if there were election-making-or-breaking interstate migratory patterns that would factor into this election. Almost every article on the subject is going to quote The Big Sort (2008), so I'd recommend going to the library and reading it. Votes themselves are secret and all we can do is wait for the count afterwards; 2020 votes are already pretty well divided down to Zip codes if you want to backsolve or go looking for some clustering and then using sources for intrastate migration such as the Census Bureau.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:06
|
|
|
Did my part as an overseas absentee voter, not that it matters much when my district is so red that not even a democratic representative is on the ballot. It's worrying that other expats around here did not bother to vote this year.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:09
|
|
|
First results are in, time to  https://twitter.com/usa_polling/status/1590056170110480384?s=46&t=cfYcRBm3wT1mLKNZW9AVng edit: I just realized I have no idea where these numbers come from or how reliable this twitter account is, god following midterm results during the twitterpocalypse is going to suck Youth Decay fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Nov 8, 2022 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:14
|
|
|
Zore posted:https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590029051875721217?cxt=HHwWgoDUufK_9ZAsAAAA Honestly this stuff is the biggest waste of time, trying to read tea leaves on Election Day because people can’t wait a few hours for actual results.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:15
|
|
.
|
Epic High Five posted:Has Kirk always been a political prognosticator as well as talking head not-vampire conservative wunderkind, or is he just especially invested in this race?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:17
|
|
|
Youth Decay posted:First results are in, time to I'm kind of surprised the GOP does so well in Guam. Is that somehow related to all the military stationed there, or does the local population just lean Republican compared to other overseas territories? e: actually, the Northern Mariana Islands has a Republican governor as well. Huh. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Nov 8, 2022 |
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:29
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:Stunning analysis Dave. Tell me about Oklahoma next Maybe I'm missing  or something but Oklahoma's gubernatorial and superintendent races are absolutely neck-and-neck.Not guaranteeing victory by any means but don't be too surprised when Oklahoma elects a Dem governor today. Both senate races are goners tho lol
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:47
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1590055044430581760
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:48
|
|
|
Usually i am a giant moron but today I will not be clicking a link to any kind of needle thanks
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:49
|
|
|
Agreed on FL being completely screwed for the foreseeable future. It was the one state on the board which even the early vote model nerds have been saying that we're screwed in. The GOP was doing just fine in FL, but not so much everywhere else. FL is just part of Chudland now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:51
|
|
|
Judgy Fucker posted:Maybe I'm missing Honestly had no idea about Oklahoma, just picked a blood red state out of a hat
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:52
|
|
|
its cool that with florida gone, if republicans can find a way to make california red too then democrats winning ever again is totally impossible
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:52
|
|
|
When did they start just directly calling it “The Needle”?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:53
|
|
|
Tatsuta Age posted:its cool that with florida gone, if republicans can find a way to make california red too then democrats winning ever again is totally impossible California's pretty far gone with respect to Democrats outnumbering Republicans. You might want to worry more about New York, though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:55
|
|
|
Tatsuta Age posted:its cool that with florida gone, if republicans can find a way to make california red too then democrats winning ever again is totally impossible Thats about as wacky as saying that if we find a way to take Mississippi and Alabama, then the GOP will be in a lot of trouble. I mean its true, but lol what exactly is in step 2, right before "step 3: profit"?
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:55
|
|
|
Don't worry, if California goes red then Texas will go blue and we're right back where we were
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:56
|
|
|
TulliusCicero posted:Honestly had no idea about Oklahoma, just picked a blood red state out of a hat Small potatoes nationally but citing evidence to prove I'm not making poo poo up: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/oklahoma/
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:56
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 4, 2024 19:47 |
|
|
Eric Cantonese posted:California's pretty far gone with respect to Democrats outnumbering Republicans. Starting to think the Manhattan/NYC statehood people had a point.
|
|
#
?
Nov 8, 2022 20:59
|
|
