US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

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Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

*strokes neckbeard on chin rolls* i do detect a bit of trolling in this thread m'lady

Well yeah sure but that's no reason to not talk about the midterms anyway. On some level it's just "Democraps are gonna get destroyed" but I don't think it's going to be the last election ever and the degree of destruction is not set in stone. Are they gonna lose the House? 99% likely, but that doesn't make the midterms uninteresting to me.

If they keep the Senate or even gain a seat (like the GOP did in 2018) it will enable them to keep confirming people for administration positions (kind of important) and judicial appointments (very important). Plus, y'know, those seats last for six years, and who knows what kind of benefit an extra Senator from Wisconsin or whatever could have in 2027.

# ? May 23, 2022 15:35

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# ? May 4, 2024 15:15

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD: Jul 7, 2012

if fetterman is up against mccormick, he's going to wipe the floor with him, even if the broader picture sucks. if it's oz, idk

# ? May 23, 2022 15:58

mrfreeze: Apr 3, 2009; Jon Arbuckle: Master of pleasuring women

So here in Michigan we just finished redrawing our districts. One effect of which is putting union organizer, Medicare for all supporter, and Green New Deal advocate Andy Levin up against corporate shill Haley Steven's in a really tough primary. Full disclosure, I'm a paid feel organizer for Levin. But you can look up both candidates and determine if I'm being inaccurate.

The fun thing in this race is AIPAC is going all in for Stevens despite Andy being Jewish because he dares to think Palestinians shouldn't be indiscriminately bombed.

So if you have any interest in phonebanking to help unseat one of the shittiest reps in the Democratic Party, please let me know!

# ? May 23, 2022 20:38

Moktaro: Aug 3, 2007; I value call my nuts.

KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:

if fetterman is up against mccormick, he's going to wipe the floor with him, even if the broader picture sucks. if it's oz, idk

I think you're right, the more Trumpy Oz voters may well refuse to vote for Mccormick out of spite, especially if he's perceived to have one via vote shenanigans.

Then just slam Candidate Business with "He took your jobs!" attack ads and turn on the charm.

# ? May 25, 2022 05:46

Acebuckeye13: Nov 2, 2010; If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER; Ultra Carp

mrfreeze posted:

So if you have any interest in phonebanking to help unseat one of the shittiest reps in the Democratic Party, please let me know!

That's a bit harsh, there are far shittier reps than Stevens.

# ? May 25, 2022 06:19

PeterCat: Apr 8, 2020; Believe women.

Iowa Democratic Primary is next month.

I wonder who is going to be chosen to lose against Chuck Grassley this year?

Probably Abby Finkenauer, she was a Representative from 2018-2021, losing her re-election bid to Ashley Hinson. She's the front runner and has most of the big endorsements.

Michael Franken is a retired admiral who lost to Theresa Greenfield who then lost to Joni Ernst in 2020, I don't see him winning this primary either.

And Glenn Hurst is a surgeon who was born on an Army base in Germany and went to school in Omaha. He's for Medicare-for-All and other progressive issues, which means he'll probably come in dead last in the primary.

# ? May 25, 2022 07:05

mrfreeze: Apr 3, 2009; Jon Arbuckle: Master of pleasuring women

Acebuckeye13 posted:

That's a bit harsh, there are far shittier reps than Stevens.

She campaigned as an actual progressive including lying to my face about supporting Medicare For All before immediately walking that poo poo back when she won. At least the other ones are nice and honest about the awful things they believe.

# ? May 25, 2022 07:08

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Mellow Seas posted:

Yeah I don't think that post was really on the level. 55-56 Senators is not on the table and honestly betting on the Dems to keep the House would be, uhhh, an interesting decision.

The following Senate races are rated as toss-ups in the Cook political report:
PA - Currently R
WI - R
AZ - D
GA - D
NV - D

Weak Dem lean:
NH-D

It's pretty unlikely any states will flip outside of those, so 52 would be the upper limit for Dems - the next best chances for pickups would be NC, FL and OH which are tough for Dems when it's not a terrible year for them.

So 46-52 seats.

I think PA is the only true toss-up so far, I have the rest of those going R except NH.

Do the midterms lead to DeSantis becoming the frontrunner for 2024?

# ? May 26, 2022 14:36

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

If Democrats are polling less than 5 ahead of the Republicans in a race, then the Republicans still win that race. So any "toss up" goes to the Republicans, in my opinion.

# ? May 26, 2022 15:17

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Crows Turn Off posted:

If Democrats are polling less than 5 ahead of the Republicans in a race, then the Republicans still win that race. So any "toss up" goes to the Republicans, in my opinion.

There's not much GE polling yet; I expect that Fetterman will consistently lead in polls, reflecting the true toss up. I agree that all those other seats look rough, especially NV and AZ.

But,
WI I think Dems can win because Ron Johnson is one of the wingnuttiest Senators in a very down-the-middle state;
GA I think Dems can win because Abrams will be good for turnout, and hopefully there will be some GOP discord after a nasty primary (not that I would bet on it)

I think that there is a good chance - though I wouldn't call this a "prediction" - that this midterm wipeout will be less pronounced than 2010, going by the generic ballot (which is still sticking hard at R+2.5) and this cycle's election results. In 2009 the GOP won in New Jersey and won the VA governor's race by 17 points; this cycle they lost New Jersey and won VA by less than 3 points.

If Dems won PA, WI and GA they can keep a 50-50 Senate. (Pickups in PA and WI, losses in AZ and NV).

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:08 on May 26, 2022

# ? May 26, 2022 16:05

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Mellow Seas posted:

There's not much GE polling yet; I expect that Fetterman will consistently lead in polls, reflecting the true toss up. I agree that all those other seats look rough, especially NV and AZ.

But,
WI I think Dems can win because Ron Johnson is one of the wingnuttiest Senators in a very down-the-middle state;
GA I think Dems can win because Abrams will be good for turnout, and hopefully there will be some GOP discord after a nasty primary (not that I would bet on it)

I think that there is a good chance - though I wouldn't call this a "prediction" - that this midterm wipeout will be less pronounced than 2010, going by the generic ballot (which is still sticking hard at R+2.5) and this cycle's election results. In 2009 the GOP won in New Jersey and won the VA governor's race by 17 points; this cycle they lost New Jersey and won VA by less than 3 points.

If Dems won PA, WI and GA they can keep a 50-50 Senate. (Pickups in PA and WI, losses in AZ and NV).

Why are we so sure AZ and NV are losses, again?

# ? May 26, 2022 22:21

Chemtrailologist: Jul 8, 2007

Biden's abysmal approval rating with Hispanic voters could be a drag in those two states.

# ? May 27, 2022 03:43

Calibanibal: Aug 25, 2015

After this tragedy in Uvalde I think the Hispanic community will be looking to DC to see some initiative and some leadership. Its a huge opportunity for us if we can do pull off any kind of gun control measure(I'm optimistic that we can). The flip side, of course, is that doing nothing could be a huge disaster.

# ? May 27, 2022 04:03

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Oracle posted:

Why are we so sure AZ and NV are losses, again?

They were just such narrow victories in better years for Dems. And those states feel swing-ier, meaning they go along with shifts in the national mood, more than PA and WI do. It's all pretty subjective on my part and I haven't looked closely at either race yet.

So much of it is going to come down to candidate quality, and we already know the Republicans have a trash fire incumbent in Wisconsin and the Democrats have a potential political star in Pennsylvania, so those states seem more likely to buck a general national anti-Dem attitude.

It feels like NV and AZ's Senate primaries have gotten way less coverage than the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries - East Coast bias, I guess.

# ? May 27, 2022 05:10

cat botherer: Jan 6, 2022; I am interested in most phases of data processing.

Any gun control stuff is already DOA, just like every other time this has happened. Manchin considers the filibuster more important than children's lives, and Biden has decided to stay out of it.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/26/biden-response-texas-school-shooting-00035523

# ? May 27, 2022 14:16

Cpt_Obvious: Jun 18, 2007

We need to give Joe Manchin all the support we can muster because he's better than a Republican, after all. Then, we should push him left using the same strategies that have worked before. He may never champion gun control himself, but maybe he can be pressured to vote for it the same way Joe Biden (who used to be super conservative) has fought tooth and nail for progressive policies because of how much work we have done.

# ? May 27, 2022 16:43

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Cpt_Obvious posted:

We need to give Joe Manchin all the support we can muster because he's better than a Republican, after all. Then, we should push him left using the same strategies that have worked before. He may never champion gun control himself, but maybe he can be pressured to vote for it the same way Joe Biden (who used to be super conservative) has fought tooth and nail for progressive policies because of how much work we have done.

No, we don't really need to give Joe Manchin any support, because his election is not until 2024. However you want to weigh his value, as a legislative obstructionist but also the only possible Senator from West Virginia (which Trump won by 39, thirty loving nine points) who will vote, say, to confirm KBJ, this is not relevant to the midterms thread.

# ? May 27, 2022 16:50

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

If anybody is looking for some genuinely midterm-related Manchin lulz - he made an ad for a Republican candidate, a challenger to incumbent Rep. Alex Mooney.

The Guardian posted:

Joe Manchin has recorded an ad for a Republican in a West Virginia US House election, in which the Democratic senator trumpets his opposition to Joe Biden�s Build Back Better domestic spending plan.

�David McKinley has always opposed reckless spending because it doesn�t make sense for West Virginia,� Manchin said.

...

In a new book, This Will Not Pass, two New York Times reporters describe meetings in which Senate Republicans sought to persuade Manchin to switch parties and thereby hand them control of the chamber.

In response, Manchin said: �I am who I am, I�m a West Virginia Democrat.�

A former governor and the only Democrat in major elected office in the state, Manchin has now released a 30-second ad in support of McKinley, who because of redistricting is challenging another sitting Republican, Alex Mooney, in a 10 May primary.

In the ad, Manchin says: �I�ve always said, �If I can�t go home and explain it, I can�t vote for it. And that is why I opposed Build Back Better. For Alex Mooney and his out-of-state supporters to suggest David McKinley supported Build Back Better is an outright lie.�

Many observers have said Build Back Better would have benefited West Virginians, who live in one of the poorest states in the union, prey to the fossil fuel industry in which Manchin prospered. Manchin has suggested parts of the plan could win his support. No visible progress has been made.

In the ad, Manchin also says: �Alex Mooney has proven he�s all about Alex Mooney. But West Virginians know David McKinley is all about us.�

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ild-back-better

# ? May 27, 2022 17:14

GoutPatrol: Oct 17, 2009; *Stupid Babby*

Politico has a article up saying Liz Cheney's has a chance of being primaried.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/27/cheney-reelection-poll-00035597

quote:

The poll, which provides perhaps the starkest illustration yet of the political peril Cheney faces this year, shows Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman garnering 56 percent of the vote to Cheney�s 26 percent in the GOP primary. A third Republican got 12 percent support, and just 6 percent are undecided.

Hageman was recruited and endorsed by former President Donald Trump in response to Cheney�s vote to impeach him last year alongside nine other House Republicans.

The race for Wyoming�s lone congressional district is one where the Club for Growth and Trump, who have quickly turned from allies to foils, are aligned, though the Club has not formally endorsed Hageman. The poll, shared first with POLITICO, was conducted this week by WPA Intelligence, a Republican firm, ahead of Friday�s candidate filing deadline.

Trump has taken intense interest in the race because Cheney has been such a prominent critic of his attempts to subvert the 2020 election results. After her impeachment vote, she became one of just two Republicans, along with Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), to sit on the commission investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol riots that Speaker Nancy Pelosi created.

Kinzinger chose to retire rather than remain a stop on Trump�s 2022 midterm revenge campaign. Cheney, however, has said she plans to seek reelection � even if her odds look tough. And Trump will travel to Casper, Wyo. on Saturday to rally for Hageman, a trial lawyer who placed third in the GOP primary for governor in 2018.

The polling reinforces another piece of data the Club for Growth released a year ago, which showed that 52 percent of Wyoming GOP primary voters were planning to vote against Cheney regardless of who challenges her.

Yet this week provided evidence that GOP primary voters were willing to come back to some Republicans Trump branded as enemies, as Georgia�s Gov. Brian Kemp, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr all won primaries against Trump-backed challengers.

And Cheney has remained undaunted by the forces assembling against her. In a video released Thursday, timed to coincide with her filing for reelection, Cheney touted her Wyoming roots, said she refused to �surrender to pressure or intimidation� and cast her upcoming election in grave terms.

Primary is in 3 months, we'll see how it ends up.

# ? May 29, 2022 05:29

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

GoutPatrol posted:

Politico has a article up saying Liz Cheney's has a chance of being primaried.

Thats kind of understating what our expectations were a bit. Its nice to finally start to get confirmation of what we already assumed, but we all thought Liz Cheney was a dead woman walking for a year now.

# ? May 29, 2022 05:51

DarkCrawler: Apr 6, 2009; by vyelkin

Why the gently caress is Liz Cheney even running

# ? May 29, 2022 06:16

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

DarkCrawler posted:

Why the gently caress is Liz Cheney even running

Why wouldn't she?

# ? May 29, 2022 18:24

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

Why wouldn't she?

Club For Growth posted:

Hageman leads Cheney by 30 points and has the support of a majority of Wyoming Republican
primary voters.

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/CfG_WYStatewide_PollingMemo_220526.pdf

# ? May 29, 2022 22:14

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Primaries in seven states today: CA, NM, SD, NJ, MS, MT, IA

Not too much interesting going on.

It's notable that John Thune never faced a strong primary challenger, even though Trump insisted a year ago that he would.

Also Dems apparently have a lively Senate primary in IA (Abby Finkenauer vs. Mike Franken), even though Grassley is basically unbeatable. It's a good thing to have a decent candidate for that race because there's always a small chance that somebody as old as Grassley is going to say something incredibly hosed up and make the race competitive. Unfortunately Grassley seems to have a talent for keeping his mouth shut.

More info: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/watch-seven-states-hold-june-7-primaries-rcna32137

# ? Jun 7, 2022 18:46

Rigel: Nov 11, 2016

In SD, there is a constitutional amendment on the primary election ballot to basically gut the public initiative process in that state. (would change it so that anything requiring increased funding needs 60% supermajority)

The state GOP are trying to sell it as some fiscally responsible bullshit, but in reality they are rushing this in there to prevent medicaid expansion and marijuana legalization which are both going to be on the ballot in the Fall.

# ? Jun 7, 2022 19:28

Timeless Appeal: May 28, 2006

drawkcab si eman ym posted:

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/CfG_WYStatewide_PollingMemo_220526.pdf

It's probably not enough to overcome her loss of Republican voters, By WY allows cross party-voting for primaries. So, her hope really rested in her getting a strong enough share of the Republicans and overcome with Democratic voters wanting to maintain Cheney who is apparently a moderate on the basis of not wanting to take part in a fascist takeover of the government and overturning the will of the people.

She's probably not going to be successful, but I think it's fair to say there was at least a path to victory.

# ? Jun 7, 2022 19:50

Mellow Seas: Oct 9, 2012; Can't post for 10 years!

Timeless Appeal posted:

It's probably not enough to overcome her loss of Republican voters, By WY allows cross party-voting for primaries. So, her hope really rested in her getting a strong enough share of the Republicans and overcome with Democratic voters wanting to maintain Cheney who is apparently a moderate on the basis of not wanting to take part in a fascist takeover of the government and overturning the will of the people.

She's probably not going to be successful, but I think it's fair to say there was at least a path to victory.

About 70% of Wyoming voters are registered as Republicans, so I'm not sure if even every Democrat in the state voting for her would save her.

# ? Jun 7, 2022 19:57

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

Mellow Seas posted:

About 70% of Wyoming voters are registered as Republicans, so I'm not sure if even every Democrat in the state voting for her would save her.

how many are registered Republicans because its the only way to get a candidate to vote for, though. Basically how many Indian reservations are in Wyoming.

# ? Jun 7, 2022 23:00

Nissin Cup Nudist: Sep 3, 2011; Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land

In case anyone missed it, Dr. Oz is officially the GOP candidate for PA Senate

Dr. Oz lol

# ? Jun 9, 2022 22:03

Crows Turn Off: Jan 7, 2008

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

In case anyone missed it, Dr. Oz is officially the GOP candidate for PA Senate

Dr. Oz lol

PA voted for Trump in 2016 so Oz will probably win. Republicans love a person who is on TV.

# ? Jun 9, 2022 22:10

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Jacob Raskubin on Twitter posted:

If you're wondering, "Who the heck is Mike Franken and how did he just beat Abby Finkenauer in the IA-Sen primary?" then you haven't been reading Inside Elections!

A month ago I reported on Franken's momentum in the race:
https://insideelections.com/news/article/iowa-senate-franken-poll-tied-finkenauer

One big takeaway: advertising still matters!

April poll had him down 50 points. May poll was a dead heat. It took one month of advertising to pull away in the 2022 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.

Jacob Raskubin on Twitter posted:

In the markets where Franken (left) outspent Finkenauer (right) � Cedar Rapids, Des Moines � he beat her.

She outspent him in Davenport, and beat him there (also closer to where she's from).

Neither spent in Omaha or Mason City, and she won there too.

drawkcab si eman ym fucked around with this message at 18:41 on Jun 10, 2022

# ? Jun 10, 2022 06:34

Yawgmoft: Nov 15, 2004

Crows Turn Off posted:

PA voted for Trump in 2016 so Oz will probably win. Republicans love a person who is on TV.

Lamb got absolutely trashed, Dems are gonna take PA in a walk.

# ? Jun 10, 2022 18:56

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Yawgmoft posted:

Lamb got absolutely trashed, Dems are gonna take PA in a walk.

PA Senate 2022 Lean R. More polls should give a better idea.

# ? Jun 10, 2022 19:27

Oracle: Oct 9, 2004

drawkcab si eman ym posted:

April poll had him down 50 points. May poll was a dead heat. It took one month of advertising to pull away in the 2022 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.

Wow.

quote:

A Change Research poll previously released by the Franken campaign found Grassley leading in a general election matchup against Franken, 45-42 percent.

Oh its by the Franken campaign, nevermind. I was going to say that's pretty drat close.

# ? Jun 10, 2022 22:58

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Dems spent a million on a longshot bid to get the less-favorable general election opponent in the GOP Senate primary in Colorado across the finish line. Bennet should still be safe, though.

# ? Jun 10, 2022 23:25

Nucleic Acids: Apr 10, 2007

drawkcab si eman ym posted:

Dems spent a million on a longshot bid to get the less-favorable general election opponent in the GOP Senate primary in Colorado across the finish line. Bennet should still be safe, though.

When has that ever bitten them in the rear end before?

# ? Jun 11, 2022 14:21