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Willa Rogers posted:I wonder how Cheney's Operation Ratfuck is going since she announced her support of scotus having overturned Roe. Its Wyoming. Last time I checked it was literally the most red state in the country. She has to run hard right. (edit: yep, still easily #1 MAGA state, unless you count the 3rd district of Nebraska) To this she is hoping to add votes in the primary by telling WY Dems "lol come on, its Wyoming, you have no chance. So, which Republican would you rather have?" Rigel fucked around with this message at 21:54 on Jun 26, 2022 |
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Jun 26, 2022 21:51
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Willa Rogers posted:I wonder how Cheney's Operation Ratfuck is going since she announced her support of scotus having overturned Roe. I'll never understand how people can see politicians like McCain and Cheney and Dubbya and think they're any different than Trump or DeSantis. Propaganda works I guess, technology's ability to really refine media into a consent manufacturing machine and our squandering of historically low interest rates on scams and graft are probably what the future will remember this era for but in the meantime I guess I'm gonna keep getting asked to respect the honor of people like her and Kasich.
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Jun 26, 2022 22:00
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Epic High Five posted:I'll never understand how people can see politicians like McCain and Cheney and Dubbya and think they're any different than Trump or DeSantis. Propaganda works I guess, technology's ability to really refine media into a consent manufacturing machine and our squandering of historically low interest rates on scams and graft are probably what the future will remember this era for but in the meantime I guess I'm gonna keep getting asked to respect the honor of people like her and Kasich. I mean, it's a natural outcome & logical consequence of lesser-evilism; when Dem leadership themselves are campaigning & fundraising to defeat a pro-choice challenger why not go the extra couple inches & support the lesser-evil Wyoming GOP candidate? The post above yours lays this out very clearly.
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Jun 26, 2022 22:41
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Willa Rogers posted:I mean, it's a natural outcome & logical consequence of lesser-evilism; when Dem leadership themselves are campaigning & fundraising to defeat a pro-choice challenger why not go the extra couple inches & support the lesser-evil Wyoming GOP candidate?
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Jun 27, 2022 00:09
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What the Democrats MUST do: Run a national campaign against every Republican running in the midterms that basically has those quotes about a “national ban” and mix that with Handmaiden’s Tale dystopian stuff. Sort of in the vein of LBJ’s classic punch in the gut “Daisy” ad and make it clear that if the GOP wins the midterms they are going to turn America into a theocratic hellscape.
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Jun 27, 2022 02:51
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That's going to be hard because it's not like the dems have literally years of footage of the gop stating explicitly that that is their goal over and over and over
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Jun 27, 2022 02:54
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VideoGameVet posted:What the Democrats MUST do: I think they have to promise to do something specific as well—to detail a plan to return the right to abortion and explain the terms necessary for it to happen. I got that fundraising text on Friday night and it made me pretty angry because the democrats’ historical unconcern with protecting abortion is extremely obvious now. They need to do more than as for votes because republicans will make things worse if they win.
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Jun 27, 2022 03:04
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VideoGameVet posted:What the Democrats MUST do: Unfortunately your plan here is to run ads showing the GOP actually delivering on all the poo poo they promised to do, which is maybe not the best contrast for the Dems to try and strike
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Jun 27, 2022 03:24
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some plague rats posted:Unfortunately your plan here is to run ads showing the GOP actually delivering on all the poo poo they promised to do, which is maybe not the best contrast for the Dems to try and strike Except for a lot of Republicans, it is an issue they run away from in November. They have to be against abortion and vote for awful judges to win their primaries, but they usually don't like talking about it in November if the race is at all competitive. Abortion hasn't been a real political issue for a lot of people for a long time. Historically the GOP in swing districts leaned hard on persuadable voters going "oh, I don't have to care about abortion because that is all settled and the Democrats are just lying and exaggerating about overturning Roe v Wade. So what is the friendly-looking Republican saying about the economy again? I sure do hate those gas prices, maybe we ought to drill or something, I dunno. Anyway I'm busy with my life and I'm bored with looking at this race *cluelessly votes Republican*"
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Jun 27, 2022 03:40
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I don't know if people, you know, regular people, really understand the SCOTUS decision. A lot of people probably think "abortion is illegal in the US now," a lot of people probably don't know what to think. What people need to know is that until things change in SCOTUS or the Senate, their state representatives are the ones who protect their abortion rights now, and state level races are the key to protecting or restoring abortion rights in your state. Republicans have always understood the importance of state legislatures, of course. Now it's time for Democrats to attach that level of urgency to those races for their own voters.
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Jun 27, 2022 03:59
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Rigel posted:Except for a lot of Republicans, it is an issue they run away from in November. They have to be against abortion and vote for awful judges to win their primaries, but they usually don't like talking about it in November if the race is at all competitive. This... seems anecdotal and at best wildly ahistorical? The GOP have traditionally leaned on swing voters who support abortion? What on earth gave you that idea?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:00
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some plague rats posted:This... seems anecdotal and at best wildly ahistorical? The GOP have traditionally leaned on swing voters who support abortion? What on earth gave you that idea? It is really basic common knowledge in politics. You had to have heard about the old "run to the right (or left) in the primary, run to the center in November" before. Unless you are very young or something. If the race is not contested in a red state or in a very red district, if the race is at all competitive, the Republican candidate *Almost Never* wants to talk about abortion. They have to be dragged into it very reluctantly by a moderator and they bail out and pivot to another issue as quick as they can. Overturning Roe v Wade is absurdly unpopular outside of the Republican primary... but it hasn't been an actual political issue that people care about for a long time because no one actually believed it would ever happen. Its been drat near 2 generations now, before now, people always thought the Democratic candidate is just being overly dramatic when he or she tries to tell the voters that their opponent will ban abortion.
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Jun 27, 2022 04:07
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some plague rats posted:This... seems anecdotal and at best wildly ahistorical? The GOP have traditionally leaned on swing voters who support abortion? What on earth gave you that idea? "Running to the middle" between primary and general elections is not wildly ahistorical, what are you talking about? e:fb
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Jun 27, 2022 04:11
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Rigel posted:It is really basic common knowledge in politics. You had to have heard about the old "run to the right (or left) in the primary, run to the center in November" before. Unless you are very young or something. You're not actually supporting your argument with anything. Claiming republicans hate talking about abortion and then when asked for some evidence just going "everybody knows that!" is pretty hard to debate in any meaningful way. Seriously what are you basing that claim on beyond some old saying no one uses?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:11
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TipTow posted:"Running to the middle" between primary and general elections is not wildly ahistorical, what are you talking about? Do you agree with his contention that republicans hate talking about abortion...?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:12
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Rigel posted:It is really basic common knowledge in politics. You had to have heard about the old "run to the right (or left) in the primary, run to the center in November" before. Unless you are very young or something. remember when Mark Udall was mockingly nicknamed "Mark Uterus" because of how much he talked about abortion and women's issues in the 2014 senate race
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Jun 27, 2022 04:16
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I agree that a sufficiently large number of people to matter electorally exist who vote Republican largely for economic reasons but find all the social/theocratic poo poo off-putting. The issue of abortion in swing districts is not worth discussing during the general election as you already have the voters who are anti-choice locked down. It's not "Republicans hate talking about abortion," it's "some Republicans shut the gently caress up about abortion when it was strategically important."
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Jun 27, 2022 04:19
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some plague rats posted:You're not actually supporting your argument with anything. Claiming republicans hate talking about abortion and then when asked for some evidence just going "everybody knows that!" is pretty hard to debate in any meaningful way. Seriously what are you basing that claim on beyond some old saying no one uses? You are asking the Oreo thread to re-litigate the existence of frosting between the cookies.
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Jun 27, 2022 04:21
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If you want more examples, look at the repub circus that accompanies the March for Life every year. Or the RNC platform. Or the way they went at Tim Ryan the second he gave them an opening on the issue
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Jun 27, 2022 04:22
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Grape posted:You are asking the Oreo thread to re-litigate the existence of frosting between the cookies. It should be really easy to support the point then?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:23
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some plague rats posted:If you want more examples, look at the repub circus that accompanies the March for Life every year. Or the RNC platform. Or the way they went at Tim Ryan the second he gave them an opening on the issue Republicans are not a hive mind. Some of them are happy to run as fervent anti-choice nutjobs. Others try to run as moderates in swing districts, and may even play down what they said to win the primary. This happens every election season, across the country, on every level. The fact that you don't recognize this happens speaks pretty badly on your actual understanding of elections outside a very narrow lens.
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Jun 27, 2022 04:29
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some plague rats posted:It should be really easy to support the point then? Do you need evidence the sky is blue? I get your initial point about some plague rats posted:Unfortunately your plan here is to run ads showing the GOP actually delivering on all the poo poo they promised to do, which is maybe not the best contrast for the Dems to try and strike Because yeah, the reason the Dems are unpopular is because they don't do poo poo, and pointing out that Republicans do would seem, independent of any other variable, not wise. The problem with that analysis is outlawing abortion isn't just another example of "Republicans getting things done," and blasting that horn as loud as possible is not going to persuade people who weren't already GOP voters to become ones. I won't speak on how effectual it would be in favor of Dems, but I'm extremely skeptical it would backfire. Judgy Fucker fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 04:31
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Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" comment came in the context of attacking abortion rights and 100% cost the GOP a Senate seat for six years. They noticed that. A lot of ink was spilled. There is a lot for them to lose and not much to gain when talking abortion in a general election, because as others have said, fervent pro-lifers are already the most reliable GOP voters. (And they remained so, for over 30 years of the GOP "failing" to immediately accomplish their goals.)
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Jun 27, 2022 04:36
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Whole lot of appeals to common sense and everybody knows, not a lot of backing it up with anything going onTipTow posted:The problem with that analysis is outlawing abortion is isn't just another example of "Republicans getting things done," and blasting that horn as loud as possible is not going to persuade people who weren't already GOP voters to become ones. The big anti-abortion push isn't about creating new GOP voters, it's about turning out the ones they've already got, while doing poo poo like the Latino outreach community stuff they've been doing to reach new voters. It works and consistently wins them elections, especially in contrast to the democrat plan to offer people nothing and scold them for not wanting to protect the status quo harder
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Jun 27, 2022 04:46
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The GOP doesn't keep [relatively] mum about abortion on the general stump in close elections so that they can attract pro-choice voters, it's more so that they don't inspire an increase in the turnout of anti-abortion voters. And they don't have to talk about abortions to bring out their base because single-issue abortion voters are already very reliable and organized. Of course, this election will go a long way to demonstrate how much that can really damage them. (And I don't think anybody really knows yet.)
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Jun 27, 2022 04:50
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some plague rats posted:Whole lot of appeals to common sense and everybody knows, not a lot of backing it up with anything going on Glenn Youngkin literally ran as a moderate to win an election in a swing state less than a year ago https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-02-09/glenn-youngkin-takes-hard-right-turn-as-virginia-governor
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Jun 27, 2022 04:51
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Glenn Youngkin literally ran as a moderate to win an election in a swing state less than a year ago I feel like you and I might have different definitions of moderate? I mean, per the article, "Youngkin was sympathetic to the activists, described himself as “staunchly, unabashedly pro-life,” and spoke of tightening state abortion laws." Feels like anyone claiming he's taken a "hard right turn" maybe wasn't paying attention?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:55
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Mellow Seas posted:And they don't have to talk about abortions to bring out their base because single-issue abortion voters are already very reliable and organized. ...and fully prepared to call them RINOs and primary them if they don't?
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Jun 27, 2022 04:57
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some plague rats posted:I feel like you and I might have different definitions of moderate? oh my god The whole point of the article is to show how Youngkin is trying to play both sides, telling supporters "oh yeah I'll go after abortions" but refusing to go into specifics so he can pretend to be more moderate on the issue than he actually is. He literally says this! In the article! That you posted!! quote:"Youngkin avoided giving the activists details about his anti-abortion agenda. He told them that focusing on the topic could alienate independent voters that he needs to win the election." well thanks for one of the dumbest conversations I've had in a while, I guess e: and yeah you know what most voters are people who aren't paying attention
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Jun 27, 2022 05:04
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Republican messaging never basically never wavers from 100% anti-abortion and nobody is claiming that it does. It's just a matter of what issues they would prefer to focus on. If you're talking to a bunch of abortion activists at an event, you're gonna swing sweet music to them, of course. They'll have a line in the stump speech. But they don't want the issue being covered in the news. They don't want voters who don't usually think about abortion, to be thinking about abortion. Dems and Republicans both know that Republicans have it made if the election is about inflation. If the election becomes more about abortion, it could complicate things for them. Because the position is broadly unpopular!
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Jun 27, 2022 05:07
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I think there is a possibility that Republicans are doing this now because they have so much tailwind that they're very unlikely to lose the election even if this creates, say, a five point swing against them. That's not gonna put Rubio in danger. That's not gonna keep them from getting the House.
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Jun 27, 2022 05:10
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The correct play for the GOP here seems pretty obvious. They will probably do a hell of a lot of polling first but nothing good can come from talking about abortion at this point. After the primaries, they will completely ignore the issue, and if their opponent in a particular race is screaming about abortion and getting traction from it, they will try to scream even louder about inflation and gas prices while praying that their voice is louder and 4 months is enough time for the voters to not care as much. The timing is awful for them, it would have been MUCH better for them if Alito has just waited until the Fall and dropped the bomb right after the election in early December to give them a full 2 years to work with. (Actually it would have been best if Alito had gone with the Roberts frog boiling approach, but crazy's gotta crazy) Rigel fucked around with this message at 05:20 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 05:15
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Acebuckeye13 posted:oh my god So... We just take his word for it? Do you think the guy who tripped over himself to explain that he was rabidly pro-life and couldn't wait to tighten abortion restrictions successfully presented himself as a moderate? If the argument is he fooled a bunch of low-info people who don't pay attention to politics into thinking he's a moderate that's a fair call, but when we say someone ran as a moderate I'm assuming we're referring to the things they expressed an intention to do when in power, not what a bunch of people who constantly get led around by the nose decided. Acebuckeye13 posted:well thanks for one of the dumbest conversations I've had in a while, I guess This is debate and discussion, we're debating and discussing. There's no need to start acting like a condescending prick when someone disagrees with you
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Jun 27, 2022 06:52
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I AM GRANDO posted:I think they have to promise to do something specific as well—to detail a plan to return the right to abortion and explain the terms necessary for it to happen. I got that fundraising text on Friday night and it made me pretty angry because the democrats’ historical unconcern with protecting abortion is extremely obvious now. They need to do more than as for votes because republicans will make things worse if they win. Yes, the other part of this is that Democratic leadership should publicly admit that not going for a national law codifying RvW was a mistake. Why should they do this? Because there’s real anger at the party over that and for the appearance of using RvW as a fundraiser rather than strong actions. Disagree, sure. But that anger is real: https://twitter.com/PplsCityCouncil/status/1540906505829879810 To deal with the economic issues there needs to be something done about the clear price fixing going on, specifically in oil/gas. Specifically the deliberate "Short-Cycle Barrel" tactic creating a "Perpetual Threat Of Undersupply that is Supportive To Commodity Prices that is Great for the Company" - Jeff Miller, CEO of Halliburton. Even f-ing hearings could change the narrative on this.
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Jun 27, 2022 07:06
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Rigel posted:(Actually it would have been best if Alito had gone with the Roberts frog boiling approach, but crazy's gotta crazy) In 2024, Dems will be defending something like 23 senate seats to the GOP's 10 or something nutty. And the Presidency and House races look awful for Dems as well. Pretty sure excitement will be at an all time low when the option will be an 82 y/o literally asleep Joe Biden, or whatever bland purple state governor/general the Dems shove forward. Jan 2025 to Jan 2027 is going to be apocalyptic, and I don't know what the status of voting integrity in red and purple states will even look like by the 2026 midterms.
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Jun 27, 2022 07:23
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TipTow posted:"Running to the middle" between primary and general elections is not wildly ahistorical, what are you talking about? some plague rats posted:Do you agree with his contention that republicans hate talking about abortion...? Have you been following politics long? That's not meant as a dig. Abortion, as an issue, has been on the dl for decades so it's perfectly understandable to not be aware of the finer details. But, yes, they are correct. It's covered in the article below. (Not bolding anything because it's a good article, it covers a lot about their electoral strategy for the mid-terms, and you should read the whole thing.) "Politico posted:
-Blackadder- fucked around with this message at 08:08 on Jun 27, 2022 |
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Jun 27, 2022 08:02
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Rigel posted:The correct play for the GOP here seems pretty obvious. They will probably do a hell of a lot of polling first but nothing good can come from talking about abortion at this point. After the primaries, they will completely ignore the issue, and if their opponent in a particular race is screaming about abortion and getting traction from it, they will try to scream even louder about inflation and gas prices while praying that their voice is louder and 4 months is enough time for the voters to not care as much. As long as Dems continue to be clearly uninterested in addressing it, it's in the GOP's best interest to trumpet abortion 24/7 IMO. It energizes their base and depresses their enemies'.
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Jun 27, 2022 22:46
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Yinlock posted:As long as Dems continue to be clearly uninterested in addressing it, it's in the GOP's best interest to trumpet abortion 24/7 IMO. It energizes their base and depresses their enemies'. People want to feel like someone gives a poo poo about them in this world, listens to them, fights for at least some small thing for them, that they get to win occasionally, and republicans give their base that. They'll never material help their lives, but when they say "we're going to stop abortions, outlaw gays, put god back in control" and other social issues that don't cost the bosses any money, they deliver on it at least. Even if it takes them 40 years they will do every dirty trick they can't to try and accomplish their social goals. Republican voters get to feel like they have real power and control when they vote, because they actually might get stuff they want, they might get to feel like winners. Democrat voters get spit in the eye, told to gently caress off how dare you demand anything of us, oh and give us donations. I haven't been a democrat voter since 2008 before Obama spit in my eye, but the impression I get from democrat voters i know is a deep demoralization, especially for anyone under 40, and boosters getting ever more desperate to try and whip people who feel betrayed and let down into coming back to the polls again. Even myself, who already hates and laughs at the party, has been absolutely gobsmacked at how they managed to be even more useless than I ever expected possible since getting back in power, I can't imagine their actual voters who honestly expected them to pass a bunch of poo poo feel great. I honestly don't know how the party can keep its head above water with people who increasingly take it as a matter of course that they are a functionally useless group that will never do anything ever if elected but at least they won't make it worse? hopefully? Maybe thats just projection on my part though, and holding life and death issues above their voter's heads, like a sword of damocles, is an effective electoral strategy after all.
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Jun 28, 2022 02:30
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It’s not projection. Aside from feeling sadness and concern, I’m coming around to a clear understanding that I have been a huge sucker, that the democrats aren’t merely bad at protecting rights or not really interested in doing so, but have absolutely no intention to preserve any rights at all. They were lying the whole time. It’s not a huge discovery because I’ve known how useless they were since Obama, but this is my final parting. What’s really wild is that republican voters reacted to getting hosed and made empty promises by getting more enthusiastic about voting for republicans. For 50 years they ate poo poo and failed, until they finally won. What could get me to do that? Endlessly cycling capitalist-produced propaganda poured into my ear every waking moment?
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Jun 28, 2022 02:38
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I AM GRANDO posted:
Because the Republicans didn't win immediately but they actually kept working at it. They chipped away at abortion on the state level, and cut taxes when they were in power and did all that other culture war poo poo to keep their voters onside. Instead of taking the Democrat approach of shrugging and going "welp, haven't got the votes, guess you guys didn't really want this" while means testing everything to the point where no one can point to a single helpful thing they actually did, they went out there and found ways to actually accomplish a bunch of insanely evil poo poo using the courts, state governments, school boards, etc and demonstrated an actual will to power that convinced a whole raft of people to keep voting because as soon as they get in the repubs would actually work on poo poo their hog voters want
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Jun 28, 2022 02:46
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