|
Hyrax Attack! posted:I’m in WA in a very blue area & have gotten two door to door visits from the local democrats and have been seeing a big uptick in Patty Murray signs & ads so while anecdotal seems they aren’t taking anything for granted. Probably helps Murray is competent & reasonably well liked while Smiley came out of nowhere. WADems want you to vote for at least one person because they know you'll probably bubble in a lot more "prefers D Party" down-ballot if you get through the process of filling out your ballot. Patty Murray is like the "50% if its your first time using this app-service" offers on all the podcasts; its about getting someone in the door.
|
#
¿
Oct 27, 2022 19:31
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 18, 2024 11:01 |
|
|
Rigel posted:Well that would be pretty far from "the best midterm performance by a party in the White House in two decades", so he probably doesn't actually believe it and was trolling with that earlier post. I mean it sounds like he's not including 2002, so we're talking 2018 which just means Retain Senate + <36 seat deficit in the House... sure that'd be the kind of better-than-feared result to call on twitter. Gerund fucked around with this message at 21:48 on Nov 6, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Nov 6, 2022 21:41
|
|
|
A GOP-led House & Senate is more likely to happen than not. The opposite happening would be a massive surprise to me and probably paired with a turnout and suburban district flips that I have not felt coming.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 8, 2022 02:16
|
|
|
Mooseontheloose posted:I dunno in 2010 you could feel the Tea Party coming. Bargaining down the gain from 6 Senators and 63 Representatives to half of that is still GOP leading both bodies, because 2020 with all its turnout still left a very thin margin of incumbants.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 8, 2022 02:31
|
|
|
i am a moron posted:Sure but you made a couple of other assertions I’d like to see numbers on. Wasn’t trying to call you out, was genuinely curious if there were election-making-or-breaking interstate migratory patterns that would factor into this election. Almost every article on the subject is going to quote The Big Sort (2008), so I'd recommend going to the library and reading it. Votes themselves are secret and all we can do is wait for the count afterwards; 2020 votes are already pretty well divided down to Zip codes if you want to backsolve or go looking for some clustering and then using sources for intrastate migration such as the Census Bureau.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 8, 2022 20:06
|
|