US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > US Midterm Elections: Second Cousin Is Fine To Smash

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

Willa Rogers posted:

I mean, it's a natural outcome & logical consequence of lesser-evilism; when Dem leadership themselves are campaigning & fundraising to defeat a pro-choice challenger why not go the extra couple inches & support the lesser-evil Wyoming GOP candidate?

I'm a fan of getting whatever utility out of a vote that's possible, but even I can acknowledge that there's no juice worth the squeeze there. Her voting record has been worse than some of the wildest on the right. Maybe she's making a grandstand to 'defend our democracy' at the moment, but defend it to do what, right.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2022 00:09

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 09:02

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

Rigel posted:

(Actually it would have been best if Alito had gone with the Roberts frog boiling approach, but crazy's gotta crazy)

I think it's probably fine for the GOP if this blunts their 2022 midterms (and it might not even do that). They've had no problems running their obstructionism gameplan even in their 'weaker' position now, so even small or no gains in 2022 would be fine for them. Better for them to get any blowback from this out of the way now, so they're still set for an epic sweep in 2024 when it will matter most.

In 2024, Dems will be defending something like 23 senate seats to the GOP's 10 or something nutty. And the Presidency and House races look awful for Dems as well. Pretty sure excitement will be at an all time low when the option will be an 82 y/o literally asleep Joe Biden, or whatever bland purple state governor/general the Dems shove forward.

Jan 2025 to Jan 2027 is going to be apocalyptic, and I don't know what the status of voting integrity in red and purple states will even look like by the 2026 midterms.

# ¿ Jun 27, 2022 07:23

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

I remember seeing the difference in strategies when HB2 passed in Texas in 2013, which put restrictions on abortion care to force abortion providers to have admitting privileges to a hospital within 30 miles.

They were able to message that in a way which sounded reasonable to people who would answer "legal in certain circumstances". Well yeah, it's medical care, seems safer to have it near a hospital right, what's wrong with that?

Republicans were happy with that incremental progress, and they kept working at it. If the roles were reversed, I can imagine our activists losing their poo poo over the weakness of our reps to compromise and deliver half measures. I see it now in reactions to the gun control bill that just passed this last weekend.

We also have to do more to educate people, even those on our own side. I've heard a well-meaning active progressive say "well, late term abortion seems extreme, its an actual baby at that point", not understanding the context of why those happen, how rare they are and so on. It is very easy to pick at the edges of the "legal in certain circumstances" crowd if we aren't getting this information out there.

And persuading the electorate in general, I think Dems look at national polls showing our ideas as overwhelmingly popular but we neglect what that means in individual districts.TX-28 recently is a good reminder:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1540363530293202949?s=20&t=cAm-kP2j7raHNUcWx2le0g
He's not wrong, it's a pretty conservative district even among democratic voters there. Yes we should browbeat Cuellar, but it's also our job to persuade folks in his district, make him the minority in his district so he loses his primary and so we still win in the general after.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 03:54

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

shimmy shimmy posted:

Wouldn't it be much easier to persuade Pelosi than the electorate in that district? As the tweet notes, he only survived with heavy support from Pelosi.

He survived the primary with Pelosi's support, but if the district is still anti-abortion, it's not certain if his primary challenger would have won in the general. I think she had a good shot for other reasons but, this one issue wasn't going to make it any easier.

If instead you persuade the electorate, you win the primary and general election without the undemocratic and problematic step of expecting people to vote for someone who doesn't share their views, and it takes Pelosi out of the equation, and it's a more lasting and durable change. Now you have a community that understands the value of reproductive care, and that's important beyond just the election.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 05:28

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

some plague rats posted:

Wait, am I misunderstanding or are you advancing the argument that running anti-choice pieces of poo poo like Cuellar is fine because maybe people don't want abortion to be legal?

My argument is that if we can win over the actual people in the district to become more pro-choice, we don't have to consider a compromise like Cuellar in the first place.

Here's an expert on this specific situation:

quote:

Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said it's smart of Cisneros to target Cuellar's anti-abortion stance, saying the leak of the draft opinion is "manna from heaven" for her and a "plague" for Cuellar.

Cisneros' pro-abortion rights views should help her in the coming runoff, Jones said, especially in the northern part of the district in metro San Antonio. But while Latino Democratic primary voters lean pro-abortion rights, Cisneros' abortion views could make retaining the seat more difficult in any general election contest, Jones said.

"In reality, Cuellar�s tepid pro-life position better matches the position of the average Hispanic Texas-28 voter than does Cisneros� robust abortion rights stance, but Cisneros' position on abortion is closer to that of the average Texas 28 Democratic primary voter than is that of Cuellar," said Jones, referring to the 28th Congressional District.

The strategy the other poster advanced was: persuade Pelosi, who would then browbeat Cuellar into more pro-choice positions. But let's play it out - this would put him at odds with his district on this issue that it happens to be conservative about, reducing the odds of him winning in the general election. The thing Pelosi cares about more than anything is winning the general election. This is an incompatible mix of motivations... we're not going to persuade her out of the thing she wants most.

My strategy is, persuade the voters. Then either Cuellar moves left, or Cisneros wins the primary and is now also most positioned to win the general. The Eye of Pelosi moves on to other races because this one looks to be in good shape for a win, the only thing she cares about. And now you also reap huge benefits from having a community that better values and supports reproductive rights and services.

some plague rats posted:

Seems like this puts you on a hiding to nothing, though. If people are anti-abortion enough that it influences their vote, why would they ever vote for a Dem, regardless of how he personally feels on it, when they can just vote for the candidate of the anti-abortion party that repealed RvW? Where is the sense in running diet republicans when the real thing is right there and available to vote for? How the gently caress is "I believe the same things as that guy, but unlike him the party I'm representing doesn't support them, so... vote for me anyway!" a winning pitch??
If the idea is to attract people who agree with the majority of the Dem platform but don't like the national stance on abortion... They already agree with the majority of the Dem platform. They're not going to vote republican. Run someone who can generate some grassroots enthusiasm, someone who doesn't oppose the party on the most important issue of the last decade, and doesn't have to be dragged across the finish line by the vampires at the DNC.

Are you familiar with TX-28 and the dynamics of the electorate in South Texas? South Texas Hispanic Voters lean Dem on some issues and lean Republican on others. Their Catholic faith plays a big part in this.

Here's one example:

AP News article from May 2022, "Texas race tests abortion�s resonance with Democratic voters" posted:

At a food truck outside San Antonio, Citi Ramos, 64, teared up describing her opposition to abortion while taking a break from serving tacos and burgers to customers. She called herself a Democrat and strong Catholic who typically doesn�t get involved in politics. But, she said, Cisneros� position is one she can�t sit out.

�I�m pushing everybody to vote,� she said. �It�s a strong issue for me.�

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 07:36

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

That would still be incompatible motivations if she thought that Cuellar was best positioned to win the general, because that is the most important thing she cares about.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 07:47

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

Assuming you're correct (and I agree with you that that's part of it) then the other poster's strategy of "persuade Pelosi to let Cisneros run a fair race" is even less viable.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 08:08

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

shimmy shimmy posted:

You're assuming that, essentially, Pelosi is making some kind of tough choice here and would love to not have to, but it's what she wants.

I think these quotes of hers in the Hill article you shared support my understanding about why she wants, or at least accepts, this:

"https://thehill.com/homenews/house/384638-pelosi-rejects-litmus-test-on-abortion posted:

Taking questions from students at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., Pelosi said the Democrats� broader goal of winning the House is more important than the views of any one candidate on a particular issue.

In contests in which both the Democratic and Republican candidates oppose abortion, �we would support the Democrat,� she said, �in order to get that gavel to protect all the other rights that we have.�

�I get some heat for saying that not everybody has to be [pro-abortion rights],� Pelosi said during the forum, hosted by Georgetown�s Institute of Politics and Public Service. �When the day comes when we can say we don�t want any of our voters to be anti-choice, then I think we�d have a right to say that we don�t want any of our candidates to be anti-choice.�

And I think it's fair to say her views here reflect Democratic party leadership and strategy as a whole. They might have ideological beliefs, but they're very low on the priority list compared to winning elections.

Gumball Gumption posted:

No one in the Democratic party wants to enact your plan or wants the things it would get or they would have tried by now.

Absolutely true, because like that quote above suggests, the Democratic party is not an ideological one. It doesn't believe in anything - it exists in the daylight between where the electorate is and where the Republicans are. It's a loose coalition opposition party to an actual ideological party.

That's why our strategy as activists/leftists/progressives/liberals needs to include moving the electorate itself to the left so the Dems have to chase us, rather than us just chasing Dem leadership all the time.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 15:49

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 09:02

Have Some Flowers!: Aug 27, 2004; Hey, I've got Navigate...

WampaLord posted:

So what about on issues where the country is already left? The country loves the idea of Medicare For All, it's consistently extremely popular whenever it's polled

The challenge is that you have to also look at local polling and attitudes in addition to national ones. The country is generally supportive of abortion rights as well, but in this particular district because of its Catholic roots, it's mixed.

# ¿ Jun 28, 2022 16:38

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