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Yes and my concern is that this overcorrection has much higher risks than just taking a slower approach. Inflation is not nearly high enough across the board to risk running the whole global economy into a ditch over it. Except if you are wealthy I guess.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:01
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Jaxyon posted:Yes. Increasing the cost of borrowing works if your inflation is based on money being too readily available. To be fair, part of the reason for that is that we had various levels of mass unemployment from 2009 through 2021. That doesn't change the fundamental problem that most of the inflation is related to energy and supply chain issues. But, the context of the decade of 0% rates was also two periods where unemployment was close to 20% for brief stints and lingered around 10% for months afterwards. Eric Cantonese posted:They're applying lessons from the 1970s and 1980s, which I guess is the best data set that they've got. Really scary stuff, if you think about it. Does anyone really know what they're doing? The Fed is essentially saying, "99 times out of 100 it works exactly like this. We think the 100th time was a fluke and not due to a fundamental systemic change that was different from the other 99 times."
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Sep 21, 2022 21:03
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I guess if we are being totally fair increasing interest rates SHOULD do two things: 1) slow down housing costs because mortgages DEFINITIONALLY will be more expensive and hopefully the era of "cheap" flipping is over. 2) No more unlimited flow of VC for the dumbest projects because there is no risk.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:05
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and my concern is that this overcorrection has much higher risks than just taking a slower approach. Inflation is not nearly high enough across the board to risk running the whole global economy into a ditch over it. Except if you are wealthy I guess. Nah, the type of inflation we have is also very bad, because wages have not been increasing sufficiently to keep up with it. Which means everyone's standard of living has been decreasing.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:06
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The Space Force has released its official song, "Semper Supra." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSV3Q4ztGaA
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Sep 21, 2022 21:07
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and my concern is that this overcorrection has much higher risks than just taking a slower approach. Inflation is not nearly high enough across the board to risk running the whole global economy into a ditch over it. Except if you are wealthy I guess. Food costs have been rising at a pretty alarming rate. I don't think that's all down to the supply chain. Shelter cost inflation is also not a problem limited to the wealthy either. That, though, is not something I think the Fed can fix in the medium or long term, though. We need more new housing and that's probably something that will take affirmative government action.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:10
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Foxfire_ posted:Economists have never accurately predicted anything It's a social science, if your expecting concrete predictions you're misunderstanding what it is. However, you're also confusing political economists with academic economists. People who work political economics frequently espouse theories with little data basis(Laffer, etc). but both behaviorial economists, and more conventional academic economists, can have a pretty good idea what is going on and in general where things might go. At least prior to the pandemic.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:16
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Rebel Blob posted:The Space Force has released its official song, "Semper Supra." To be fair the original/2nd gen Supras looked pretty sweet
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Sep 21, 2022 21:41
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Rebel Blob posted:The Space Force has released its official song, "Semper Supra." So many height/sky/space puns and wordplay in less than a minute. It almost seems like a parody from the Netflix Space Force show.
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Sep 21, 2022 21:48
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:So many height/sky/space puns and wordplay in less than a minute. Netflix Space Force was less ridiculous: spaceman only seems corny when you forget they went with guardian for the real thing.
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Sep 21, 2022 22:23
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I wouldn't care to know more.
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Sep 21, 2022 22:25
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:So many height/sky/space puns and wordplay in less than a minute. You can't convince me the actual Space Force isn't a parody
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Sep 21, 2022 22:58
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Morrow posted:Netflix Space Force was less ridiculous: spaceman only seems corny when you forget they went with guardian for the real thing. Have they succeeded in raiding the Vault of Glass yet or are they still stuck at the maze
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Sep 21, 2022 22:59
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FlamingLiberal posted:Except if you are wealthy I guess. Do you rent? Rental increases are pants making GBS threads high right now all over the country.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:07
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Crows Turn Off posted:New thread title? As a note, either later today or tomorrow this thread is getting rebooted for the Autumn. So if people have good thread title ideas, let us know.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:17
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Bar Ran Dun posted:Do you rent? The Fed can't really help this as rate increases reduce new house builds which leads to more people being pushed to rent which keeps rentals increasing in price - it's a really bad cycle that needs a bunch of government intervention to control, the Fed really can't solve this itself.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:18
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Thom12255 posted:The Fed can't really help this as rate increases reduce new house builds which leads to more people being pushed to rent which keeps rentals increasing in price - it's a really bad cycle that needs a bunch of government intervention to control, the Fed really can't solve this itself. I got a survey today from my apartment complex as I'll be coming up on my lease ending soon. My rent started at $1700, is now $2050, and I'd imagine would be $2250ish next lease. poo poo fuckin rocks.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:27
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Zotix posted:I got a survey today from my apartment complex as I'll be coming up on my lease ending soon. My rent started at $1700, is now $2050, and I'd imagine would be $2250ish next lease. poo poo fuckin rocks. It is insane and happening all over the country. My wife and I are going to be moving in a few months and we've been looking at apartment complexes and I've observed prices go up $150 in one complex over the past month and another has gone up $600.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:32
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Thom12255 posted:the Fed really can't solve this itself. No they can eventually through demand destruction.
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Sep 21, 2022 23:36
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GoutPatrol posted:As a note, either later today or tomorrow this thread is getting rebooted for the Autumn. So if people have good thread title ideas, let us know. USCE Autumn 2022: starting to move the needle
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Sep 21, 2022 23:38
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The 11th Circuit has sided with the DOJ and will allow the government to continue to use the materials seized from Mar-a-Lago in a potential criminal investigation over the mishandling of classified documents https://twitter.com/dnlbrns/status/1572728437873287169?s=20&t=kLr3aYn9tqYO-cWpjGvYEA
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Sep 22, 2022 00:59
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and my concern is that this overcorrection has much higher risks than just taking a slower approach. Inflation is not nearly high enough across the board to risk running the whole global economy into a ditch over it. Except if you are wealthy I guess. i'm currently in the middle of bernanke's new book on the history of the modern fed, and when discussing the failure of the fed in the 60's and 70's he attributes a lot to half measures leading to baking in expectations of elevated inflation, which spirals. i don't know if it's the correct move or not, but it's clear that the fed's own historical narrative is going to lead to choosing to over react rather than under react every time Slow News Day posted:Nah, the type of inflation we have is also very bad, because wages have not been increasing sufficiently to keep up with it. Which means everyone's standard of living has been decreasing. it is bad, but i think when balancing inflation vs full employment one has to ask whether a worker living paycheck to paycheck would choose between a pay cut or no job at all. i think a majority of people would choose employment Rebel Blob posted:The Space Force has released its official song, "Semper Supra." one of the few trump things i don't feel bad laughing about. why would you go for old timey marching cadence and then use the made up buzzword "warfighters"? Bar Ran Dun posted:No they can eventually through demand destruction. uh, lowering the cost of basic necessity through demand destruction has some dark connotations FlamingLiberal posted:The 11th Circuit has sided with the DOJ and will allow the government to continue to use the materials seized from Mar-a-Lago in a potential criminal investigation over the mishandling of classified documents thank god, i was starting to think legal twitter was lying to us about everything
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Sep 22, 2022 01:36
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:thank god, i was starting to think legal twitter was lying to us about everything So does this mean the special master thing is moot?
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Sep 22, 2022 01:42
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:
Apparently the appointed special master is getting set to say "lol, what the gently caress is any of this, why am I even here, later idiots" in a much shorter timeframe than the Trump team likely hoped for https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/20/us/politics/trump-declassification-documents.html?searchResultPosition=1
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Sep 22, 2022 01:44
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:uh, lowering the cost of basic necessity through demand destruction has some dark connotations Yes it does. When somebody like Summers says they need to raise rates until unemployment rises think about all the repercussions of that. It’s actually worse than that too. We are the reserve currency a large part of the demand destruction will be overseas. Other central reserve banks have to respond to the moves of ours. Edit: and that’s not to bring them down that’s to just stop them from going up
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Sep 22, 2022 01:49
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It's funny to me the special master ploy was basically a waste of money. It bought what, two weeks?
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Sep 22, 2022 01:49
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and my concern is that this overcorrection has much higher risks than just taking a slower approach. Inflation is not nearly high enough across the board to risk running the whole global economy into a ditch over it. Except if you are wealthy I guess. This is the slower approach. This is the slow rise to shoot for a soft landing!
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Sep 22, 2022 01:50
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Oracle posted:So does this mean the special master thing is moot? The special master will be reviewing poo poo that the DOJ only sort of gives half a gently caress about. Screwing around with nonclassified documents that should have gone to the Federal Librarians is probably not going to make it onto the list of charges they eventually go with.
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Sep 22, 2022 01:54
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Oracle posted:So does this mean the special master thing is moot?
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Sep 22, 2022 01:59
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Foxfire_ posted:That injunction is only for classified marked documents. If Trump also had MyTaxCrimes.pdf printed out and in one of those boxes, that would be outside the scope of this order. It would still need Judge Dearie to look at it and say "This document is not Trump talking to his attorney (in a way that is not furthering a crime), so it is not privileged". I hadn't thought of that. Since we live in the stupidest timeline, this could lead to "well, we weren't really looking for clear proof of tax fraud, but we apparently found it lying underneath a ketchup-stained Top Secret document. We'll refer that over to the IRS."
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Sep 22, 2022 02:03
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Foxfire_ posted:That injunction is only for classified marked documents. If Trump also had MyTaxCrimes.pdf printed out and in one of those boxes, that would be outside the scope of this order. It would still need Judge Dearie to look at it and say "This document is not Trump talking to his attorney (in a way that is not furthering a crime), so it is not privileged". a distinct concern, and one with which I am personally familiar
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Sep 22, 2022 02:24
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Oracle posted:So does this mean the special master thing is moot? Not completely. In the interest of moving things along quickly, the government restricted their appeal to only about 100 of the documents (mostly important classified ones) in the cache they recovered from Trump. This ruling covers only those 100, and it's only a simple stay of the special master requirement. The rest of the papers are still subject to the special master review, at least for now. The strength of this response from the 11th Circuit bodes well for any further challenges the government files.
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Sep 22, 2022 02:27
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Main Paineframe posted:...The strength of this response from the 11th Circuit bodes well for any further challenges the government files. You are being very diplomatic. The 11th Circuit spanked Cannon.
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Sep 22, 2022 03:43
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PainterofCrap posted:You are being very diplomatic. What, something on the lines of "there are 4 criteria. The DOJ only had to make a successful claim for one of them, and they in fact made it on all four. Also we are unanimous that we would likely rule in favor of the DOJ on the merits of the case. PS, here is a primer on classification law." E: also there response to the idea that the threat of prosecution creates irreparable harm is pretty plaintext: "you're an idiot" Ravenfood fucked around with this message at 12:35 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 12:32
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Late last night I was watching Hannity interview Trump regarding the classified documents and it got so crazy that I had to look at it again this morning to confirm that I didn't imagine it. It features Trump attacking everyone involved with his usual inflammatory hyperbole but it reaches escape velocity around the 0:48 mark. https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1572764458623148035?s=20&t=ftRfcyIctcGTBYLmAk3G9A
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Sep 22, 2022 13:57
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"You mentioned Russia a number of times" yeah 3
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Sep 22, 2022 14:00
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I'm honestly in awe of these magic declassification powers. If you dream about sharing nuclear state secrets, are they declassified? Can you use this magical powers to reclassify? Can Joe Biden engage in his powers of presidential classification and reclassify the documents? Could Barack Obama declassify the stuff Hillary mishandled? Mentally? Just snap his fingers Thanos style and it's over? The sky is the limit on this lunacy.
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Sep 22, 2022 15:01
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Dick Trauma posted:Late last night I was watching Hannity interview Trump regarding the classified documents and it got so crazy that I had to look at it again this morning to confirm that I didn't imagine it. It features Trump attacking everyone involved with his usual inflammatory hyperbole but it reaches escape velocity around the 0:48 mark. It must be really stressful to be president when a random errant thought can declassify all of the nation’s secrets. What if everything was already declassified because at some point some president thought about it for for a split second but just never told anyone?
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Sep 22, 2022 15:25
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Nelson Mandingo posted:I'm honestly in awe of these magic declassification powers. If you dream about sharing nuclear state secrets, are they declassified? the government cannot prosecute anyone for any crime involving classified material without the testimony of each and every president that was in office since the document was created that they never thought about declassifying it oops you asked the current president and they thought about it and it's now declassified
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Sep 22, 2022 15:29
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Like I understand the game, but this really a new low in cynical bullshit. Obviously the game is to just lie lie lie deny deny deny deflect deflect deflect and spew as much bullshit as you can, and if enough people go along with it, it becomes reality. Anyone who honestly takes up this message is just too far loving gone. It's a blatantly transparent self-serving lie and it's getting old to watch people pick up transparent zero effort lies and run with them as the truth. Give me a lie that at least takes more than a half of second of critical thought to knock down. Give me back my Lee Atwater style lies. Those at least were abstract enough to be plausible. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Sep 22, 2022 |
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Sep 22, 2022 15:39
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