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Eifert Posting
Apr 1, 2007

Most of the time he catches it every time.
Grimey Drawer
We're about to get into camp and I want to know how you see your team BEFORE your favorite player blows his Achilles day one. You can go into as much or as little detail as you like, but what I personally find the most interesting is:


How right were you going into last year?

Where do you see your team finishing?

Who should non-fans pay attention to?

What does the team have to fix or change to hit their ceiling?


Since I'm me I wrote a page and a half, but you shouldn't feel the need to keep to this format at all. I just wanna know where you're at.


2022 Bengals


How right were you last year:

I did not see the massive improvements on defense or the impressive coaching coming at all. I was right about the offensive line being a liability though!


What looks promising:

You are about to get another year of a QB who just led the league in completion percentage AND yards per attempt. Going into last year he was one of the worst deep passers in the league and became statistically the best last year. There are no major losses on the offense except for a tight end. On paper the offensive line is much better. You could make the case the best player on the 2021 line will be the third or fourth best this year.

There is not an obvious reason for the defense to regress and the coaching staff is incredibly stable considering they won their conference last year. You would have anticipated Bates and Reader as major assets on the defense, but last year, in addition to those players being more-or-less as advertised, they got star production from Hendrickson, Awuzie, Logan Wilson, even Sam Hubbard had an exceptional year. There were no massive liabilities last year, the only major concern was Apple sporadically playing poorly and there not being a great rush when Hendrickson missed time with a back injury.


What looks ominous:

Until the coaching staff puts a couple years together at a capable level I will always be concerned about them turning back into a pumpkin. Coaching stability is great, but it also makes it easier for teams to review and adjust to scheme. The starting 5 on the offensive line looks better, but there is still a concern at LG and the team is not significantly better from a depth perspective if none of the young backups take a leap. The wide receiver room is obscenely talented but shallow after the initial trio.


Keys to the season:

Translating the starting linemen into a more consistent offense: It’s one thing to have guys you feel more confident in prior to the year. It’s another to actually get better production and yet another to have that increased production translate to a more consistent and explosive offense. The Bengals red zone offense went from one of the best early in the year to one of the worst late in the year. While they were hot the Bengals feasted on big plays and couldn’t sustain a rhythm. They need to be more reliable running the football. Joe having more time in the pocket needs to translate to faster starts and more TDs close to the goal line

Finding or scheming a pass rush: This was a point for me last year as well. Hendrickson exceeded expectations butm by the second half of the yearm he was dealing with a lingering back injury. The pass rush was moribund while he was either off the field or limited. Look for Ossai to step up if he is able to actually play this year. The Bengals had 3 7 sack players outside of Hendrickson last year. BJ Hill and Larry Ogunjobi likely benefitted from lining up between Reader (who is not a guy you single) and Hendrickson. They have a lot of young guys and could really use one or two of them to contribute in sub-packages.

Health: The health in 2021 was a bit overstated, but it was a major factor.
  • The Bengals lost two starting offensive linemen and one of the 3 remaining (Hopkins) played with a nagging injury that resulted in very poor performance throughout the year.

  • Their best pass rusher suffered a nagging back injury week 15 that caused a significant reduction in snaps in the final few weeks of the regular season and the post season.

  • Linebacker was hit hard, they were signing street free agents by the end of the year. Arguably the best player on the defense last year, Logan Wilson, missed 3 games starting week 13 with a torn labrum. He played through that injury the entire postseason and the remainder of the regular season.

  • Joe Burrow suffered two MCL sprains on the record and a dislocated pinkie.

  • Tee Higgens lost 3 games to a separated shoulder early in the year and played 10-12 games while needing surgery he delayed until the offseason.
There’s more like this, but it is true that they lost very few players to extended absences where they were simply unable to participate. In stead they had a lot of key players available as walking wounded.

They are light at second and third string WR and they will be counting on players making leaps on the offensive line if any starters go down. On the defense they don’t have a deep reserve of boundary corners (nickle and safety they have dudes for days, though). Even if you are bullish on Ossai you’re only looking at a couple real threats rushing the passer.


Guys to watch:

Jackson Carman: gently caress this guy. That said, he’s got the inside line to claim the only contested starting spot on the offense. He had motivation and availability concerns all last year, Smith and Volson will be looking to eat his lunch.

Eli Apple: The favorite for the only contested defensive spot. Eli played well down the stretch and outperforms his salary. Whether or not hec an hold of Cam Taylor-Britt is going to be one of the leading stories early in camp.

Jessie Bates: Jessie is slated to make ~13 million of the tag and every missed game represents about $750,000 To date he has made just under five million dollars. It seems very unlikely he would miss any games but if he misses the entirety of camp and Dax plays well in the preseason he might be eased into the rotation to start the year. He had a mediocre start to last year and cited concerns re his contract.

Ja’Marr Chase: Taken as a whole Ja’Marr had a phenomenal season, but he did have games in which he disappeared. He did see much lighter coverage last year than he is likely to this year as well (as an example we’ve probably seen our last snap of Marlon Humphries singled on Chase). There isn’t a lot of speed elsewhere on the offense so the Bengals will need more from Chase than simply costing resources for the other team.

Hayden Hurst: The Bengals offense doesn’t highlight the tight end, but they lost a lot of production on third down with Uzomah gone.


Realistic best case scenario:

If everything falls right this team could dominate opponents and win a Superbowl as a heavy favorite. Whether or not the line gels and the defense continues to play at a top 5-10 caliber is in the air, but there’s more cause to be optimistic as a Bengals fan than there has been in a couple generations.


Realistic worst case scenario:

I have a hard time seeing Joe lose more than six or seven games. Assuming the QB stays upright the floor seems to be a team that squeaks into or out of the last wildcard spot. That kind of regression would be a very big deal. Next year is when a lot of the big contracts start to pop up and there’s only going to be a couple years available with this significantly underpaid defense.


My prediction:

14 wins, the two seed, and a Superbowl victory. There’s just as much reason to expect a loss in any given playoff game as a win, but I’m looking at a team that’s better on paper than the team that was a quarter second of blocking away from the walkoff touchdown in the superbowl last year. If there has ever been a time to expect greatness it's this year.


Accolades:

Top 5 run game, top 10 passing offense

#8-12 scoring defense

Burrow wins MVP or is runner up

5-7 probowl nods, perception catching up to performance from 2021

Logan Wilson first team all pro, at least one more 1st team all pro, likely Mixon or a WR. McPherson makes Justin sweat for his annual all pro but ends up missing out.

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Borsche69
May 8, 2014

i see my team on the football field

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?
2022 Buccaneers

How right were you last year:

Probably about as expected. I would have maybe thought one more playoff win but injuries caught up with the team. Bucs had incredible injury luck in their SB run in 2020/21, they weren't as fortunate last season. It's pretty hard to expect a team to repeat and I certainly did not.


What looks promising:

Tom Brady coming back, obviously. He has the best set of WRs in the league to throw to and no nutcase to deal with anymore.

The offensive line should be a very good once again despite losing both guards. They did manage to upgrade the RG in the process so the unit shouldn't miss a beat.

The defense is almost entirely back so they should have a top 10 caliber defense with guys like Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, Devin White, Lavonte David, Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Antoine Winfield.


What looks ominous:

A new head coach in Todd Bowles taking over for the retired Bruce Arians. Things shouldn't really change much with the rest of the staff pretty much holding over but you never know.

Gronk retiring leaves the TE room pretty bare so I'd expect a veteran signing like Kyle Rudolph to happen at some point.

Ali Marpet retiring leaves a massive hole at LG but Luke Goedeke was drafted and Aaron Stinnie held up well at RG during the Super Bowl run so one of the two should be able to fill in and not be a negative.

Getting consistent pass rush might be difficult after losing JPP and having second year Joe Tryon step in. The depth behind him and Shaq Barrett is largely unproven.

Fournette showed up to OTAs at like 260lbs. He's getting back into shape apparently but now that he got paid I could see him taking a step back.


Keys to the season:

Staying healthy.

Bowles transition to HC goes seamlessly.

Brady continues to defy age.

The interior OL gels and doesn't miss a beat.

The defense can generate a consistent pass rush to take pressure off the secondary.

Guys to watch:

Aaron Stinnie/Luke Goedeke - One of these will start at LG. Goedeke is from a small school which Jason Licht loves to draft so it might take him a bit to get his body into NFL shape. Stinnie has proven he can start and not be a liability so I'd guess he starts off at LG.

Russell Gage - Taking over for AB as the #3 WR after a pretty solid season in Atlanta. He'll likely be the #2 until Godwin is fully back from his ACL tear so he'll see plenty of looks early.

Logan Hall - The Bucs top draft pick this year. He'll be taking over Suh's role on defense so it'll be important for him to be able to play disciplined and generate a bit of pass rush.

Joe Tryon Shoyinka - Becomes the full time starter at OLB with JPP departing. He needs to be effective to take some pressure off Barrett on the other side.

Devin White - He's been pretty up and down and needs to develop consistency. He had an incredible SB playoff run but last season was all over the place good and bad.


Realistic best case scenario:




Realistic worst case scenario:

Something happens to Brady and Gabbert has to play and yeah...


My prediction:

13-4 and the NFL does it's part to make sure Brady retires on top.


Accolades:

Brady MVP.

Brady, Evans, Wirfs, Jensen, Mason, Vea, White, Davis are all pro bowlers.

Top 5 offense. Top 10 defense.

BrownThunder
Oct 26, 2005

EXTEND BEN!
Forever and ever and ever

Borsche69 posted:

i see my team on the football field

forkboy84
Jun 13, 2012

Corgis love bread. And Puro


As a Green Bay fan I think the ceiling is losing in the playoffs and the floor is losing in the playoffs, thanks to the NFC North. I suppose Rodgers could miss the season after self-administering some sort of enema or other new age treatment that makes him very sick and Jordan Love has to start & there's no playoffs but that's unlikely.

really queer Christmas
Apr 22, 2014

Mike stoklasa voice: in the garbage

R.D. Mangles
Jan 10, 2004


Bears: bad

Thanks for asking

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

don't see em

sirtommygunn
Mar 7, 2013



I have not had much optimism for the Jets since I became a fan, but I feel really good about this years draft. I think they'll look much better but it won't show up much in the wins and losses because the coach and QB still suck. 5 or 6 wins total, assuming neutral luck.

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
I predict 10 wins and a playoff appearance for the New Orleans Saints!!!! Wooooo Who Dat baby!!!!

wandler20
Nov 13, 2002

How many Championships?
Lol, looks like I called the Kyle Rudolph signing. Hope he has something left in the tank.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose
I see the 2022 San Francisco 49ers not doing the same things they did last season. Apart from that I dunno, 9-8 maybe?

LiquidFriend
Apr 5, 2005

I feel pretty optimistic about the Kansas City Chiefs.

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k
The 2022 Dallas Cowboys


If they're lucky they manage to do the NFCEast impossible and win the division for the 2nd season in a row. They then find a new, avant garde way to disappoint because the team got bounced in the wild card round last season and the team's only gotten worse in a year.


Realistically, they'll compete for the division before coughing it up to a team that's.....doing fine, but not what you'd consider a division winner. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 9-8 team win the NFCEast, honestly.

Cavauro
Jan 9, 2008

bengals 8-9 due to bull poo poo.

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.
The 2022 Seattle Seahawks

Scipiotik
Mar 2, 2004

"I would have won the race but for that."
Lions

Entertaining but probably still not very good. Quality of team depends almost entirely on Goff being last 6 games good Goff or first half of season terrible Goff. Also whether any of the players make it through the season healthy.

Should at least be exciting if they keep up the insane aggressiveness.

Eifert Posting
Apr 1, 2007

Most of the time he catches it every time.
Grimey Drawer

Nervous posted:

The 2022 Seattle Seahawks



That has to be a prop. There's no way people contribute to that after it gets to be like half that bad.

Demon Of The Fall
May 1, 2004

Nap Ghost
tennessee offense bad, tennessee defense good

carry on then
Jul 10, 2010

by VideoGames

(and can't post for 10 years!)

the cardinals won't fall off a cliff at the end this year


because they'll get some embarrassing losses in early so our expectations can stay nice and low

RustySeabutter
Nov 11, 2000

Puncho!

Eifert Posting posted:

That has to be a prop. There's no way people contribute to that after it gets to be like half that bad.

you've never been to a music festival?

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
2022 Houston Texans

How right were you going into last year?


I was technically right. I figured that Davis Mills wouldn't be ready for primetime early in the season, but by the end he would show some promise. I also believed that if we could score a touchdown in a game before the half, we'd have a chance.

Where do you see your team finishing?

If we finish better than 3rd in the AFC South, I'll be over the moon. It's not so much as the Colts, Titans, or Jaguars being world-beaters, but we're an extremely young team and I don't know how much to expect from the draftees.

Who should non-fans pay attention to?

Brandin Cooks is a pretty good wide receiver, one who would be a lot more note-worthy if he played for a team that played on national television.

What does the team have to fix or change to hit their ceiling?

I'll answer this question with another question: what is the ceiling for the Houston Texans?

Bismack Billabongo
Oct 9, 2012

Wet
THE TENNESSEE TITANS WERE THE 1 SEED IN A WEAK AFC LAST SEASON. THEY WERE DEFEATED BY THE CINATI BENGOS IN A DIVISIONAL ROUND UPSET DESPITE HAVING THE COACH OF THE YEAR AND AN ELITE PASS RUSHING UNIT. THEY PROCEEDED TO LOSE THEIR TOP TWO RECEIVERS, TWO STARTING OFFENSIVE LINEMEN, AND THE TOP TWO TIGHT ENDS. LETS ANALYZE, babey

Offense Happy Trails:

AJ Brown (traded to eagles)
Julio Jones (cut, unsigned to date)
Marcus Johnson (not re-signed)
Chester Rogers (not re-signed)
Anthony Firkser (not re-signed)
Mycole Pruitt (serious leg injury, not re-signed)
Rodger Saffold (cut, signed with bills)
Dennis Quessenberry (not re-signed, signed with bills)
D’onte Foreman (signed with panthers)

The wide receivers group was hurt and, outside of AJB and Nick Westbrook Ikhine, ineffectual last season. They had poor speed, inability to separate, and, aside from the two mentioned above, zero chemistry with the quarterback. It makes sense to wash our hands of them, for the most part.

Letting AJ Brown go is brutal. Before him the Titans had not had a 1000 yard wide receiver in like fifteen years or some poo poo. In a vacuum it makes sense to trade him IF:

A) you don’t think his knees will hold up going forward (he had both knees scoped in the lead up to the 2021-22 season)
AND
B) you think his production is replaceable
AND
C) you know the team is doing a soft reset and don’t want to have a huge contract on a team that might be exiting its championship window

That being said he’s a stud when he’s healthy and came into the league as a second round pick who immediately jumped to the top of Tennessee’s depth chart to dominate. He was also the one receiver tannehill knew he could implicitly trust to not gently caress up his routes as well. Our offense will be worse without him, guaranteed.

The tight ends were both bad and will not be missed from a production standpoint. Pruitt will probably be gone for a while and I hope maybe he will be healthy enough to be a potential injury replacement later in the year, if needed.

Saffold is old, misses a lot of series with a nerve issue, and has gotten worse in pass pro every season he was here. He is still a good run blocker especially next to Lewan. Quessenberry loving sucked poo poo and will only be missed by our coaches.

Foreman was signed mid season to replace an injured Derrick Henry and was good enough to earn an FA deal to serve as Christian Mccafferys handcuff. He runs with a ton of enthusiasm and is fun to watch. If/when CMC misses time he will fill in admirably.

New Offense Guys Or Whatever:

Robert Woods (trade acquisition)
Treylon Burks (draft)
Kyle philips (draft)
Austin Hooper (fa signing)
Chig Okonkwo (draft)
Jamarco Jones (fa signing)
Nicolas Petit-Frere (draft)
Malik Willis (draft)
Hassan Haskins (draft)

Woods tore his ACL last year and was brought in initially to replace Julio Jones. After the AJB trade he is our number one WR by default. Everybody loves this guy and it seems like he is at least healthy enough to get in practice reps with tannehill which will be extremely valuable. Lack of chemistry and snaps with the qb was a large part of why things flopped so hard with Julio Jones.

Treylon burks has barely practiced in rookie camp and ota’s. At first people just assumed he was fat and all kelvin benjamined out. Turns out he has asthma, in a hilarious interview his college coach said he didn’t know what asthma was and that he’s always had issues with making it through practices. This makes me feel a bit better about him actually but as noted above he needs time with tannehill or he won’t throw to him.

Kyle philips is a small white slot receiver which has been the absolute opposite of what this team has looked for at WR under Vrabel. I think he has the juice to be a good player but it’s a weird fit IMO.

Austin Hooper is a perfect fit for tannehill. Okonkwo was my number one choice for a TE in the draft and I’m thrilled we nabbed him. He might end up buried on the depth chart if he doesn’t improve his blocking but I think he’s gonna be great.

Jamarco Jones is competing with our previous backup guard, Aaron brewer, to replace saffold. Brewer is the favorite of the coaching staff and will probably win the job. Our second round pick from last year, Dillon radunz, is slotted to replace Quessenberry at RT but petit-frere was drafted as a tackle prospect and could end up beating radunz out. It’s unlikely any of these dudes will be great but they can’t be that much worse than the people they were replacing in pass protection.

After Henry’s foot healed up and foreman left in FA we drafted Hassan Haskins from Michigan and re-signed dontrell Hilliard. It’s unclear if the team will look to lighten Henry’s workload, but they definitely have competent dudes to spell him now. Hilliard will probably end up being our kickoff returner.

Oh, we drafted the quarterback from jerry Falwell jrs Hotwife University. He is a very exciting prospect who is very very raw and probably won’t play at all this season barring a total nightmare meltdown from tannehill which I find unlikely. Unless tannehill goes on a flaccoesque super bowl run Malik Willis will probably be the starting quarterback for the 2023-24 season.

Overall the outlook for our offensive unit is not great. With our revamped receivers room, line instability and terrible offensive coordinator, this season is gonna be very very dependent on tannehill and Henry’s ability to carry their team. In spite of tannehills rough season statistically speaking, he was pretty much the last man standing by the end of it and this team would absolutely have bottomed out without him. I hope he can bounce back. Henry has had so much tread worn off his tires and needs an insane bounce back season to ward off the dipshits who think the guy from the colts is better. He isn’t

The OC, Todd downing, is definitely on the hot seat. Vrabel brought in one of his buddies from when he was coaching in Houston to oversee the passing game. This is similar to last season when Jim Schwartz was brought in to “assist” our struggling DC Shane Bowen. The defense turned things around big time so hopefully Tim Kelly has a similar effect on downing. Worst case scenario if the offense falls apart just enough to hold the team back from getting a playoff spot they’ll have Kelly to replace downing.



The Titans defense took a huge step forward last season with a mass exodus from the secondary and a refreshed defensive line and linebacker corp. There have not been a ton of changes so I’ll try to be brief.

Defense Happy Trails:

Jackrabbit Jenkins (cut)
Kyle Peko (not re-signed)
Jayon Brown (not re-signed)
Rashaan Evans (not re-signed)
Dane Cruikshank (not re-signed)

Jackrabbit Jenkins was his usual streaky self. I always have liked him since his days with the rams so it was nice to get to root for him on my favorite team but he won’t be a big loss.

Kyle peko was a rotational pass rusher who went to the raiders I think? He was actually pretty good in limited snaps and I’m sad he walked. Hope he gets a bigger role!

Jayon brown had one amazing season, got hurt at the end and has been replacement level ever since. He can’t stay on the field at this point, which sucks because when he is on he is so fun to watch. Rashaan evans was good in run support and goal line packages and that’s it. Big bust for a first round pick.

Cruikshank had been our hybrid safety to hit people hard. He was good but replaceable. He will be a good fit in Chicago IMO.

New Defensive Signings / Re-Ups:

Roger “Beans” mccreary (draft)
Buster skrine (re-up)
Greg Mabin (re-up)
Teair Tart (re-up)
Naquan Jones (re-up)
Zach Cunningham (re-up)
Theo Jackson (draft)
Honor Landry (re-up)

As you can see most of the Titans moves on defense were re-signing dudes. Our defense was extremely good last year so this tracks. Beans Mccreary will be competing with Caleb Farley to start on the outside at CB, skrine and mabin are both cb depth. Zach Cunningham was a kid season waivers pickup who ended up playing so well next to David long that he got jayon brown and rashaan evans off the team. Good For him!! Theo Jackson is replacing Dane Cruikshank. Bud Dupree is back to full health and needs a big season if he wants to not get cut. Harold Landry got a big payday after a career year but our pass rush around him is so stacked I can’t see him backsliding at all tbh.

Overall this defense should be even better than last season. The main pass rushing group of Landry, Dupree, denico autry and BIG JEFF will be supplemented by a healthy rashad weaver. If mccreary and Farley pan out there won’t be a weak group on this side of the ball.

A Lesson Is Learned, But Big Jeff Is Irreversible

This team was 12-5 last year in a season where they broke the record for most players to miss time with injuries. They are in a division with one team that is up and down and two teams that are disasters. Barring a huge backslide from the offense they will win the division again. The offense was actually pretty bad last year so I frankly don’t think it can get a whole lot worse. Maybe I’m wrong but probably not. I don’t think our offense will be good enough to make any noise in the playoffs though, barring treylon burks being waaaaaay better than expected. I think best case scenario is making it to the afccg but I think more realistic is making it in, winning in the wildcard round and losing in round two.

Worst case scenario tannehill gets hit so much and has no chemistry with his all new receiving group that he’s on IR by week eight and Logan woodside has to drag us over the finish line. This team will not finish worse than third in the division because the jags and Texans are awful.

fsif
Jul 18, 2003

The Bills

How right were you going into last year?
Pretty right. Would have guessed they'd win a playoff game or two but fall short of the Super Bowl.

The offense underperformed and the defense overperformed relative my expectations until the postseason. The postseason offense was the best I've ever seen. The defense 13 seconds.

Where do you see your team finishing?
Same as last year. Should make the postseason and will likely win a game or two. That'd be a disappointment, though.

Who should non-fans pay attention to?
I don't know. Ed Oliver might end up having a really good year. Gabe Davis probably won't live up to the hype but there's a chance he becomes a stud and then Deebo/AJ Brown's himself into next offseason. They drafted punt god, too.

What does the team have to fix or change to hit their ceiling?
The line needs to stay healthy and not suck. The depth is bad and the starting lineup is, at its ceiling, good-but-probably-not-great.

Would be nice if James Cook can contribute right away and the team can actually run the ball with a player other than their quarterback.

The defensive line needs to actually get sacks. Their pressure rate was good last year but they couldn't ever finish the play. There are three defensive ends on the roster drafted in either the 1st or 2nd round that have ranged from middling (Rousseau) to bad (Basham, Epenesa). One of them needs to play at a starter level.

Kaiir Elam better be good right out of the gate; Tre White probably won't be healthy at the start of the year and the corner depth is bad.

Older players like Miller, Hyde, and Poyer need to continue to play at high levels.

fsif fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Jul 21, 2022

Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



The New England Patriots

How right were you going into last year?

Pretty right. I thought they'd have a rookie rear end QB and a bunch of overpriced toys for the offense to be average with. Combine that with an aging defense that needed to turn over a bunch of spots and that spelled a team that'd be wild-cardish if things broke right, and they did, hooray!

Where do you see your team finishing?

A decent QB going from year 1 to 2 should be a big jump. Unfortunately he's lost his offensive coordinator to be replaced with tweedle dee and dumb and their big addition is an oft injured decent receiver and a 1st round guard whose absolute astronomical hit ceiling is being as good as the guy they replaced him with. Combine that with a ton of turnover on defense and again, this is a team that if things break right, end up as a wildcard-ish team, especially in what looks to be a brutally tough AFC this year.

Who should non-fans pay attention to?

Christian Barmore is probably the best of the young defensive players who should be very good this year. He had more pressures then Aaron Donald did as a rookie :v:. Behind him you have Jonathan Jones who is a very good slot corner and Josh Uche who is... god I hope ready to step up and play a bunch of linebacker snaps, because they lost all their vets.

What does the team have to fix or change to hit their ceiling?

Absolute #1 with a bullet is somehow turning a ST coach and Defensive coordinators who were both just failed head coaches with abysmal, incompetent offenses into a good offensive coordinator somehow. That's only like 4 red flags right there. Beyond that, they have to get literally more out of Aghalor and a healthy season out of Parker, and for Jonnu Smith to unfuck whatever the hell happened to him last year. All that and develop a 2nd year quarterback! Easy right? Defense is mostly just Belichick working his wizardry to make some cornerbacks and get some pass rush help aside from Judon and Barmore.

Kurgarra Queen
Jun 11, 2008

GIVE ME MORE
SUPER BOWL
WINS

fsif posted:

The Bills

How right were you going into last year?
Pretty right. Would have guessed they'd win a playoff game or two but fall short of the Super Bowl.

The offense underperformed and the defense overperformed relative my expectations until the postseason. The postseason offense was the best I've ever seen. The defense 13 seconds.

Where do you see your team finishing?
Same as last year. Should make the postseason and will likely win a game or two. That'd be a disappointment, though.

Who should non-fans pay attention to?
I don't know. Ed Oliver might end up having a really good year. Gabe Davis probably won't live up to the hype but there's a chance he becomes a stud and then Deebo/AJ Brown's himself into next offseason. They drafted punt god, too.

What does the team have to fix or change to hit their ceiling?
The line needs to stay healthy and not suck. The depth is bad and the starting lineup is, at its ceiling, good-but-probably-not-great.

Would be nice if James Cook can contribute right away and the team can actually run the ball with a player other than their quarterback.

The defensive line needs to actually get sacks. Their pressure rate was good last year but they couldn't ever finish the play. There are three defensive ends on the roster drafted in either the 1st or 2nd round that have ranged from middling (Rousseau) to bad (Basham, Epenesa). One of them needs to play at a starter level.

Kaiir Elam better be good right out of the gate; Tre White probably won't be healthy at the start of the year and the corner depth is bad.

Older players like Miller, Hyde, and Poyer need to continue to play at high levels.
This is great, but one thing I would add is that TE Dawson Knox, who had a break-out year last year, is set to be a free agent next off-season, so if he can replicate or even surpass last year's production, he could be in line for a big pay day. He's even a decent blocker: something for fans of other teams to keep an eye on.
And 1,000% our defensive line needs to step up. If it does, we could very realistically win it all. But if it doesn't, I don't see us surviving all the high-powered offenses in the AFC. Greg Rousseau needs to show growth as a pass rusher (or risk becoming Shaq Lawson 2.0), and Boogie Basham and AJ Epenesa need to show....something. Any loving thing.

Gatts
Jan 2, 2001

Goodnight Moon

Nap Ghost
You know that scene in Shawshank Redemption when Andy makes his way through the pipe of foul poo poo and piss to the other side to escape? The Browns are Andy getting stuck and dying in the pipe and his remains discovered 10 years later.

wilderthanmild
Jun 21, 2010

Posting shit




Grimey Drawer

Gatts posted:

You know that scene in Shawshank Redemption when Andy makes his way through the pipe of foul poo poo and piss to the other side to escape? The Browns are Andy getting stuck and dying in the pipe and his remains discovered 10 years later.

I always imagine that scene with a thick steel grate at the end of the pipe or like getting smaller and tighter at some point till he couldn't advance. The second one is some real horror story poo poo. Stuck in the dark, with no way forward, knowing the poo poo and piss is gonna start flowing heavily in the morning. Maybe you could try backing out, but that poo poo works on gravity, so now you gotta go backwards up an incline for what, a few hundred yards? You start trying to back up. It's hard, you basically have to push yourself entirely with your arms, because your legs aren't really made for pulling. You've been at for an hour now and you feel like you've barely moved, your arms are numb. Can you go on? Then you hear it in the distance. Waters flowing. Is that flushing? The Browns are coming baby, they are coming.




Well that's the Browns. I was born here so I'm cursed to follow this team, but I can't get joy out of a Watson led team. Maybe I'll find a way to root for the defense or at least enjoy myself while Watson is suspended. I see the team doing mediocre with a backup QB for 8 games, better in the second half with the rapist at QB, maybe sneaking into the playoffs and losing in the first round.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!
I see them in Gillette Stadium.

And they are going to win about 8 to 10 games.

3 DONG HORSE
May 22, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 9 hours!
The Broncos are UNLIMITED

Docjowles
Apr 9, 2009

3 DONG HORSE posted:

The Broncos are UNLIMITED

They were apparently one Tim Patrick over the limit :rip:

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

Docjowles posted:

They were apparently one Tim Patrick over the limit :rip:

Also one Damarea Crockett.

3 DONG HORSE
May 22, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 9 hours!
poo poo gently caress drat

Acebuckeye13
Nov 2, 2010


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling
1-800-GAMBLER


Ultra Carp
2022 Detroit Lions: Hard Knocks Edition

How right were you going into last year?

Going over my prediction from last year, I'd say most of it holds up. Unfortunately, what I couldn't predict was the injuries—as it turned out, the starting offensive line was unable to play a single down together, and Jeff Okudah's progress was cut short in the very first game. As a result, the Lions looked for a while like they were going to become the first team to go 0-17, until a late-season surge picked up a handful of games.

What looks promising:

After some strong contention for "Worst QB in the league" to start the season last year, Goff was able to turn things around and play some actual football in the final stretch. This year, the big question is whether he'll be able to build off that improvement, though fortunatel, reports from training camp indicate this will likely be the case. A big part of this, of course, is due to the improvements at WR—whereas last year Goff's top pass catchers on Week 1 were Tyrell Williams (Injured and out for the season week 1) and Quintez Cephus (Broke his collarbone week 5), this year Goff has DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and 14th overall pick Jameson Williams (Whenever he returns from injury). Assuming no horrible disasters between now and week 1, Goff will also have the benefit of a fully healthy offensive line, which has the potential to be the best in the league.

On the other side of the ball, the defense has also had some significant infusions of talent, particularly from the addition of 2nd overall pick Aiden Hutchinson. Though no one is projecting these guys to be a top ten unit (As there are still a whole bunch of question marks at linebacker and in the secondary), a jump from "Bottom of the league" to "slightly-below average" is certainly feasible.

Finally, though he had some struggles last year, it can't be denied that Dan Campbell held the team together through an extremely rough stretch. He and his coaching staff have done an excellent job of keeping the team focused and motivated, and at building up young talent like Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

What looks ominous:

Goff looks better, but it cannot be overstated just how bad he was to start the season last year. Any regression on his part has the potential to completely derail the entire season. And while the starting offensive line is fantastic, depth is still an issue at several positions—so any injuries could easily lead to a whole cascade of issues.

As mentioned, the defense has a ton of question marks, particularly at linebacker and secondary. It would be hard for them to be worse than last year, but they need to be significantly better for this team to have any real chance of competing, no matter how much better the offense has gotten.

Dan Campbell is a leader of men, but he did make a few coaching mistakes last year. In an ideal world, he'll have learned from those mistakes, but I'm still a little wary of his situational decision making. Also he still hasn't decided if he or newly promoted OC Ben Johnson will be calling plays, which is... well, ominous!

Keys to the Season

  • Will Jared Goff continue to improve? Will his new weapons pan out?
  • Can the offensive line stay healthy?
  • Will Jeff Okudah stay healthy and finally play to his potential?
  • Can the defensive line become a legitimate pass-rushing threat?
  • Will Dan Campbell remain as aggressive as he was last season, particularly on 4th down?

Guys to watch:

  • Jared Goff, obviously. If he plays well, the Lions may choose to ride with him instead of going after a new QB in the draft. If he regresses, however, QB is going to have to be the team's #1 priority in 2023.
  • Penei Sewell. There's no questions here, dude's going to rule. Watch him if you want to see defensive players get murdered on the field.
  • Jameson Williams. With DJ Chark on a 1 year deal, Williams is unquestionably the WR1 of the future. Due to his injury he probably won't be hitting the field until late October/early November, and when he does the connection between him and Jared Goff is going to be a major indicator of where this team is heading in the years to come.
  • Jeff Okudah. He was drafted 3rd overall to replace Darius Slay, and so far has been unable to live up to those expectations. With a mediocre, injury shortened rookie season and last year completely lost to an Achilles rupture, this is likely Okudah's last chance to prove he has what it takes to be a #1 corner in the league.
  • Malcolm Rodriguez. A 6th round pick in this year's draft, Rodriguez has made some noise in training camp as he's competed for first team reps at linebacker. Given how thin the position is, he's got a good shot of racing up the depth chart, and beat writers have been talking about his talent and vision on the field. Also, he showed up in the first episode of Hard Knocks with the incredible quote “Training camp is awesome because you get to hit people.” Watch this guy.

Realistic best case scenario:

Jared Goff has a career resurgence throwing to DJ Chark and Jameson Williams, the running game is able to exploit the huge holes opened up by the offensive line, and the defense is able to hold on just enough to let the Lions win games. Detroit ends up going 9-8 and secure a wild card slot in a weak NFC.

Realistic worst case scenario:

Goff regresses or stagnates, and injuries to the offensive line prevent them from playing to their full potential. Opposing teams exploit the Lions' weak secondary and linebacking corps, and the team ends the season with 5-6 wins.

My prediction:

As much as I'd like to, I don't think I can go so far as to predict the playoffs this year. Goff probably won't play as well as his Superbowl season, but he'll likely play well enough for the offense to do its job. The defense, however, is going to give up some big plays—enough that the Lions will likely only secure 7-8 wins.

fast cars loose anus
Mar 2, 2007

Pillbug
The best case scenario for Houston is figuring out if Davis Mills either is, or is not, a long-term solution at QB. The worst case scenario is him playing at exactly the level that we still can't decide.

Other than that I hope Brandin Cooks is good and our line continues to develop

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


2022 Green Bay Packers

How right were you last year:
I figured whatever the gently caress was happening with Rodgers would get resolved eventually, and that the defense would be slightly better than last year.

Rodgers's reunion with the Packers went swimmingly, Davante Adams presented a masterwork argument for his claim to the best receiver in the league, and the defense looked MUCH better than anyone could've expected. We unfortunately lost three All-Pro players to injury (Za'Darius Smith, Bakhtiari, and Alexander) along with someone who's right on the brink of qualifying (Jenkins), but a pile of rookies and free agents all stepped up to miraculously plug holes and earn fat contracts.

All that vim and vigor building into a roaring 13-4 finish ended up not mattering as, once again, the Packers spluttered into an early exit in the playoffs.

What looks ominous:
The team couldn't come to an agreement with Adams, who wanted out of Green Bay regardless of what the Packers were going to pay him. Green Bay got two picks out of handing his rights over to Las Vegas, and proceeded to use these picks to acquire a middle linebacker and a project receiver from the MVFC. Said receiver is already hurt and will miss a good chunk of training camp and preseason, which will be no problem at all with Aaron Rodgers and his penchant for gently nurturing and mentoring rookie receivers. The rest of the receiving room: Allen Lazard, who has never had more than 600 yards receiving in a season, coming off a major injury; Sammy Watkins somehow not coming off an injury; a middle-aged Randall Cobb, and a fistful of rookies and sophomores. Well, what about the tight ends? Well, there's Big Bob Tonyan coming a major injury, a more-than-middle-aged Marcedes Lewis, and a fistful of rookies and sophomores.

Eh, Rodgers can make it work, right? After all, it's Aaron loving Rodgers, right? The Bad Man could magic up 30 touchdowns throwing to 6 different receivers you've absolutely never heard of before, and virtually none of these balls would be pickable in the least. Unfortunately Aaron's top two linemen are both rehabbing from disastrous knee injuries -- you may be starting to notice a pattern here -- and the rest of the line is comprised of rookies and sophomores. One bad sack and we're reliving 2017 with Brett Hundley Jordan Love.

What looks promising:
If the Packers win their season opener, Matt LaFleur will qualify as the winningest coach in NFL history (minimum 50 games), beating out Guy Chamberlin. If the Packers win their first two games, they'll surpass the Chicago Bears for most football wins all-time. "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." - Mr. Lombardi

The defense seem to all be peaking at the right time. Z left for the Vikings (of course it's the Vikings), but Rashan Gary was quietly one of the best edge rushers in football last year with QB pressure rates putting him just barely outside the Donald/Watt/Garrett/Bosa tier. Alexander/Stokes/Douglas may be the best cornerback room in the entire league. Kenny Clark is somehow still only 26 years old despite being in his seventh season in the league, and has advanced to the point where the team is moving him all over the defensive line Given Clark and free agent gem DeVondre Campbell, there's minimal pressure on MLB Quay Walker and DT Devonte Wyatt, the team's two picks, to perform immediately, but with their athletic ability I expect them to get caught up to NFL speed sooner than later.

Rodgers may be lacking receivers and tight ends, but RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon is a tremendous one-two pair, behind the Browns' Chubb and Hunt. Given the state of the offense, we could easily see Jones and Dillon on the field at the same time with Jones playing a split-out/slot role while Dillon is the primary battering ram. LaFleur has shown a penchant for trickery with his pre-snap alignments, and I don't think defenders want to be in the position of having to quickly decide if Rodgers will be throwing the ball deep, tossing it to Jones in the flat, or handing off to Dillon to smash through the middle of the defense.

Guys to watch:
  • Rashan Gary: Gary is a hair away from being a top-tier elite pass rusher. I can't tell you how refreshing it is to actually see a highly-drafted raw project pan out but the Packers seem to have pulled it off twice within this current window (the other being Kenny Clark). If the corners can stay healthy, with the cover time afforded him, Gary will be blowing up quarterbacks left and right.
  • AJ Dillon: This freak of nature's legs are bigger than ever. He'll be the primary focus of the rushing offense this season, with Jones moving into more of a hybrid role.
  • Romeo Doubs: I've carefully avoided mentioning Romeo until now, but the 4th round rookie receiver is having an unbelievably good training camp. The hype train is off the rails entirely right now. I don't think he'll be able to contribute more than like 500-600 yards and a few touchdowns, but if he stays on the trajectory he's started out on, the sky is the limit.
  • The offensive line: With Bakhtiari and Jenkins being ??? for the moment, this year's offensive line is Adam Stenavich's masterclass. Yosh Nijman is the oldest starter, being an UDFA from 2019. Everyone else was drafted in 2020, 2021, or three months ago, and none of them were drafted higher than the 3rd round. The Packers historically have been incredible at developing offensive linemen. These guys should gel after a few games.

Realistic best case scenario:
Rodgers takes it easy this season as the running backs and the offensive line bulldoze opponents repeatedly while the defense suffocates all challengers. The team breaks LaFleur's streak and finishes 14-3 alongside sweeping the NFC North and easily securing a top seed just like 2011, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Nothing to worry about!

Realistic worst case scenario:
The offensive skill position deficiencies catch up to them and the Cardiac Pack spend all season barely squeezing out games and battling the Lions/Vikings for first place in the division, finishing 10-7 and facing a long, uphill trek through the playoffs.

My prediction:
Half the names I've mentioned in this post will get injured. Regardless, the Packers easily secure the NFC North. They will once again lose in the conference championship. The machine elves tells Aaron it's time to move on from football and build a quiet, serene life with Blu of Earth. We see much wailing, garment-tearing, and gnashed teeth as Green Bay enters the 2023 Summer of Love.

BlindSite
Feb 8, 2009

2022 Panthers


How right were you last year:

Kinda right, kinda wrong. I'm always an eternal optimist when it comes to my team. I had hoped Darnold could turn his career around, Rhule could find what he was doing and the offensive line would gel and McCaffery would stay healthy and everything would come good. I was wrong about all of those things but I did post before the season that the weak offensive line, weak defensive middle and fragility of the offensive skill positions could spell disaster.

The team just flat out stunk and for the most part you can chalk that up to terrible offensive line play, poor player selection and just a loving dire QB situation. It sucked.


What looks promising:

The secondary has the potential to be one of the best in the league and should Gross-Matos grow into a real football player the pass rush rotation will produce in a big way. The offensive line should also be drastically improved - so long as the right combination is locked in and on the field day one. part of the problem last year was the insistence on sticking with players who weren't working and this old school insanity of playing players out of position to get them some experience. The panthers right now have 5 offensive lineman who in their correct positions, will be VASTLY superior to the line we had last year. They drafted the best pure left tackle in the class in my eyes, signed some good free agents at good deals and have some young talent coming through in good positions. This is the panthers best offensive line in years. Hopefully they're actually utilised correctly.


What looks ominous:

The defense is still going to be a bit of a glass cannon. They're a little soft in the middle despite not insignificant investment there and the linebackers outside of Thompson don't fill me with confidence. After a decade of all time linebacking play from the likes of Thomas Davis and Luke its hard to see - but hopefully they can find some players. The coaching similarly is not looking great. Signs from McAdoo have actually been promising and Phil Snow seems like a very good defensive coordinator despite my expectations but I have no confidence in Matt Rhule. Realistically he should have had Baker listed as the one on his arrival and been 100% committed. This was our guy, this is our offense - install the scheme and get ready. instead its week 2 of the preseason and despite some reports Baker has won the job - there's still scuttlebutt about Darnold getting reps with the ones.

The worst decision is often indecision and I see that a lot with Rhule. He needs to pick and stick with the offensive line and with the QB and just trust what the front office and the world seems to be sure on.


Keys to the season:

Baker, the offensive line and probably D'Onta Foreman. CMC has this habit of running into contact at full clip and it's already taking it's toll. He needs to turn into more of a receiving running back and just get out of bounds and roll with the punches instead of muscling into contact every time. If Foreman can carry just some of the load as a runner between the tackles and the offensive line can open some holes it'll be a night and day offense from last year. If the offensive line falls apart or Rhule panics and goes with the wrong combination Baker will get banged up, CMC will be relied upon as a thumper and the season will be over by week 4. Rhule fired by week 9 and my liver critical by week 11.


Guys to watch:
Baker week 1. Because if you're not praying to the football gods for 400 yards 4 TDs and a 40 point blow out of the browns you should re-assess your life.


Realistic best case scenario:

The panthers still have holes, but there is talent on the roster and there's enough talent for them to go 4 and 2 in their division. 9 wins is probably good enough for a wildcard spot and then who cares. Just get to the playoffs and anything can happen.

Realistic worst case scenario:

The weak middle of the defense allows teams to run all day putting us in obvious passing situations, the offensive line doesn't gel because of personnel fuckery, baker gets concussed or his shoulder torn off his body and we end up trying to pound CMC up the gut 30 times a game while Darnold throws interceptions leading to 2 wins both over Atlanta and another search for a head coach, QB and answers.

My prediction:
The panthers are just good enough to win the games they should win on paper. They eek out 9 wins - maybe make a wildcard - maybe not, Baker plays well enough something like 3500 yards 30 TDs 12 INTs and we're kind of content but not exactly happy with where the team is.

Accolades:

Brian Burns for our teams best defensive player, Moore for our best offensive player, our handsome new LT as our best rookie. Top 5 passing defense, top half of the league for offense and I'm happy.

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Tank44
Jun 13, 2005

We want the ball & We're going to score

Nervous posted:

The 2022 Seattle Seahawks



Seahawks will be bad amd that's ok. But they'll still win like 5 games with the 4th place schedule and end up with the 6th overall pick and miss out on the top 3 QBs in this year's draft.

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