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Holy poo poo everyone, the 2022 NFL season is here! Can’t wait to see which hard-working, loving family man finds himself unemployed during the holiday season while we all laugh and ridicule at his failure! (most of these coaches hate their families anyway, which is why you should root harder for them to lose their jobs and have to spend more time at home) Anyway, 2021 saw a whopping 10 coaching changes, including multiple departures well into the offseason with Sean Payton “retiring” and Bruce Arians getting kicked upstairs. We will almost surely not see that many this time around, but the coaching carousel never stops turning, and there’s a pretty solid group to feed the machine this time around. Let’s dive right into it. COOL Bill Belichick, New England Patriots Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills Robert Saleh, New York Jets John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers Reich is surprisingly high on the “first coach fired” betting odds I’ve seen. I disagree pretty hard and won’t put him on the list to start, because if Matt Ryan works out the Colts should easily win their division. Of course, it’s a different story if this season ends like last year did, so that situation is worth monitoring. FIRST-YEAR COACHES Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins Lovie Smith, Houston Texans Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos Brian Daboll, New York Giants Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints Last year saw not only our first one-and-done firing since 2018, we saw two of them in Urban Meyer and David Culley. It’s still pretty rare and requires some extraordinary circumstances – Meyer was a burning red flag long before the season started, and poor Culley was always DOA in Houston. I don’t see an obvious candidate this year, but as always, things can change quickly in this league. MILD Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns – It already feels like an eternity ago that Stefanski won COTY and ended the Browns’ playoff drought, becoming the toast of the town before a more questionable 2021 campaign. If it was just a normal offseason we’d be talking about their sharp regression and how they can reclaim their potential as an up-and-coming team. But the Browns took a dark left turn with one of the most cynical gambits in sports history. We know what happened, we know it loving sucks, I don’t want to dwell on it too much in this space. The only thing I can say with confidence is that Stefanski has a lot more pressure on his shoulders now. If this whole thing blows up (and it probably will), heads will be rolling across the organization. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys – It almost feels cliche to put Fat Mike on here now. “Cowboys coach makes the playoffs and everyone hates him anyway” is a proud tradition, one that Jason Garrett turned into an art form for almost a decade. But those coaches didn’t have a Sean Payton-sized bomb hovering over them like the Sword of Damocles. You almost wish Jerry would get it over with and just bring in Payton now to put Mike out of his misery, but I guess we have to do the charade for a bit. Oh, and the roster is significantly worse than it was last season and we saw how McCarthy struggled with talent attrition back in Green Bay. This has the potential to get ugly fast – bad news for Cowboys fans, great news for the rest of us. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders – New name, same rudderless organization. I look at this team and keep asking the same questions – what is their identity? What do they do well? And how long do we keep giving Rivera a pass, who hasn’t had a winning season since 2017? Rivera is beloved around the league and had an inspiring comeback from cancer, so I get the impulse to defend him. But it’s been a long time since he delivered real results, and the team has gotten worse, not better, in his three years. I have such a hard time predicting Washington for all the obvious reasons – how can you get a read on a franchise where the owner literally fled the country to evade a Congressional subpoena? But at the end of the day, on-field stuff matters, and the Commanders have to do a lot right on the field to quell this chaos. I don’t have faith that Rivera can do it. Kliff KIngsbury, Arizona Cardinals – Speaking of teams in an identity crisis, we’re now in year four of the Kliff/Kyler Murray regime and I can’t figure out what they really want to accomplish. Another late-season meltdown hasn’t helped matters, neither has a bizarre offseason full of passive-aggressive social media sniping and the “must do homework” contract clause that I can only imagine was leaked out to publicly humiliate Murray. In the middle of all that, Kingsbury and GM Steve Keim got extensions to 2027. I don’t put much stock in coaching contracts when doing these threads – if a team wants the coach gone, he’s gone, and they worry about the money later – so that doesn’t move me here. Put simply, Kliff has to prove he’s not the problem. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks – I’ve been doing these hot seat threads for almost a decade, and I’ve been blessed to almost never have to put my favorite team’s coach on there. Sure, I’ve had Pete on a couple of midseason updates, the heat of passion after a frustrating loss or few, but rarely did I think he was in any real danger. This is the first time I’ve put him on the preseason list, and you know what? I still don’t think he’s in much danger. The front office seems to have agreed that this is a gap year, and they’re just putting on a brave face with Geno Smith while trying to sort out what the post-Russ era will look like. Call it “tanking” if you want, but a lot of teams go through glorified evaluation seasons. It’s fine, whatever, Geno seems like a nice guy, DK Metcalf rules, I can get into some of the young guys on this roster and hope they play hard every week. The problems here are: 1) Pete will be 71 years old in September, the oldest coach in the NFL; does he want to stick around for a full rebuild? 2) GM John Schneider hasn’t had a good draft since the Obama era; do you trust him with a full rebuild? 3) They, uh, don’t really have an owner right now? It’s a messy situation, so long story short – Paul Allen died unmarried with no kids, so all his assets transferred over to his sister, Jody Allen. Jody has said the right things in public and seems happy being a PR figurehead, but she clearly doesn’t want the actual job of running a massive sports conglomerate (Allen’s estate also owns the Portland Trail Blazers, who have their own problems I won’t get into here). A sale seems like a matter of when, not if, and it doesn’t look like anyone wants to be the guy holding the bag when it eventually happens. The entire organization feels frozen in place while everybody waits for the other person to blink first, and that’s obviously not a healthy way to run a football team. All of this is to say that if the season goes tits-up like most people expect, I would not be shocked if Pete bails and leaves someone else to clean up the mess. This entry was a lot of words I don’t usually give other teams on these lists, but I hope I’ve given enough context for the Seahawks’ weird situation right now. I truly don’t know what will happen next, and that makes this season both exciting and terrifying at the same time. MODERATE Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers – If you read my threads long enough, you know I’m conservative with preseason rankings, maybe to a fault. I never give a coach SPICY HOT right off the bat, because a lot can change quickly. Even with obvious dead men walking like Matt Nagy last season, I still had him in Moderate to start. Rhule came very, very close to being the first guy breaking my rule. The only thing saving his sorry rear end is that, against my better judgment, I still like Baker Mayfield and want him to succeed. The Panthers also have a core of talent that sounds pretty exciting when you say the names out loud (D.J. Moore, Brian Burns, Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn, Christian McCaffrey if he’s ever healthy again). You can talk yourself into those guys, right? If Baker re-discovers himself they could very well be hanging around for the No. 7 seed, right? Well yeah, maybe with a different coach, which is the whole problem here. Rhule quickly burned out his goodwill and has zero margin for error going forward. Maybe the biggest swerve of this season will be that he gets fired on Black Monday, not sometime in October. But make no mistake, his clock is ticking. Benne fucked around with this message at 05:39 on Sep 1, 2022 |
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Sep 1, 2022 04:48
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Sweet, a hot seat thread! It must be football season. Or it will be, soon enough! I'll miss the Jaguars and Texans being on these lists, but who knows: maybe they'll surprise us!
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Sep 1, 2022 05:04
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Lance of Llanwyln posted:Sweet, a hot seat thread! It must be football season. Or it will be, soon enough! It still feels weird not writing about the Bills in this thread every year. Graduation changes everybody.
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Sep 1, 2022 05:11
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i wonder who will be fired first between lovie smith and doug pederson. an 'old school' coach who is getting another shot and a 'other kind' of coach who is getting another shot. they're both getting another shot. the answer to this question could be unknown ten years from now!
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Sep 1, 2022 05:14
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Cavauro posted:i wonder who will be fired first between lovie smith and doug pederson. an 'old school' coach who is getting another shot and a 'other kind' of coach who is getting another shot. they're both getting another shot. the answer to this question could be unknown ten years from now! Lovie will be more fun just because he doesn't really give a poo poo anymore. Dude's in his mid-60s with a Santa Claus beard and knows that this is probably his final HC job. I can see the players vibing with his "teacher in last year before pension kicks in" energy. Pederson will get a lot of rope just because the Jags are desperate to have an adult in the room. I think he's better than Eagles fans give him credit for, and if Trevor lives up to his potential there's no reason they can't be playing meaningful games in December.
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Sep 1, 2022 05:27
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I feel like Rhule should be flaming hot already. I don't know how he isn't just even money in the betting, who else could it even be?
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Sep 1, 2022 05:29
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Kalli posted:I feel like Rhule should be flaming hot already. I don't know how he isn't just even money in the betting, who else could it even be? Jerry panic fires Fat Mike a few games into the season when he hears another team sniffing around Sean Payton
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Sep 1, 2022 06:26
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Excited to see how Matt Rhule gets shitcanned this year. Same with fat Mike. That ones gonna be sweet
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Sep 1, 2022 07:05
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Imo Saleh should be mild, you can't fix a team that dysfunctional immediately but I have the feeling ownership wants some results year two vand they may not come. And I've resigned myself to the fact that Zach Wilson probably sucks Also wouldn't be at all surprised if Lovie ends up gone. We all know he was hired to avoid bad publicity or accusations of racism. Which isn't the strongest foundation for a new coach, plus Texans ownership is basically the worst in the league if you take away Dan Snyder
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Sep 1, 2022 07:19
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Rhule is hot hot hot
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Sep 1, 2022 07:53
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quote:If you read my threads long enough, you know I’m conservative with preseason rankings, maybe to a fault. I never give a coach SPICY HOT right off the bat, because a lot can change quickly Everyone saw Urban coming from space, that one should have been a preseason SPICY HOT
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Sep 1, 2022 09:17
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This is my favorite TFF thread! Thanks for doing it Benne. gently caress Dallas. Fire Matt Patricia. If Tom Brady gets divorced that's gonna need a write up.
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Sep 1, 2022 10:41
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I don't think he'll be fired exactly, but I think Pete Carroll either resigns during or after this year or he just wants to coach until he dies. Neither would be surprising to me.
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Sep 1, 2022 10:46
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I think Bill ends the season on the hot seat unless the team turns it around after he's forced to pull Patricia off the offense
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Sep 1, 2022 11:08
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Reich shouldn't be on the hot seat at all cause it's not often the owner comes out and explicitly blames the QB for the teams failures the previous season
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Sep 1, 2022 12:36
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Carson Wentz had this amazing skill to suddenly play horrible when the game is on the line and you need a win, so I’m excited to see him do that on another team this year. But I’m also in agreement that Reich only gets fired if the Colts do horrible and it would be after the season.
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Sep 1, 2022 13:03
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Cavauro posted:i wonder who will be fired first between lovie smith and doug pederson. an 'old school' coach who is getting another shot and a 'other kind' of coach who is getting another shot. they're both getting another shot. the answer to this question could be unknown ten years from now! Barring a miracle Lovie's gone at the end of the year so that the Texans can hire McCown yeah? I figure Pederson's got at least 2 years of grace before he gets the axe. Chris James 2 posted:Everyone saw Urban coming from space, that one should have been a preseason SPICY HOT Everyone saw Urban sucking coming. I don't think anyone saw Urban not travelling with the team so he could jam his fingers up the rear end of a strange woman coming.
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Sep 1, 2022 14:23
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Kalli posted:I feel like Rhule should be flaming hot already. I don't know how he isn't just even money in the betting, who else could it even be? Everyone expects the Panthers to be dogshit and Rhule to be gone midseason so he has a pretty low bar to clear if they seem fine early. Their roster isn't dogshit or anything and their first month or so has a lot of winnable games, so Cowboys have a way harder start and are on paper a worse team than last year. Mike could be gone at the bye or earlier, especially if they lose to Washington and are like 2-5 or something
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Sep 1, 2022 14:27
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bobjr posted:Carson Wentz had this amazing skill to suddenly play horrible when the game is on the line and you need a win, so I’m excited to see him do that on another team this year. Reich will only be in trouble if the Colts are horrible and it’s clearly his fault with coaching decisions. If they get utterly ravaged by injuries and only win 4-5 games, he’d probably be fine. If they only win 4-5 games and it’s because of him doing stupid stuff, that’d be a very different situation. That’s basically what happened in Chuck Pagano’s last season, where the players loved him but they went 4-12 as he got hyper conservative and predictable in play calling and it directly cost them like 4~ games.
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Sep 1, 2022 14:44
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Grittybeard posted:I don't think he'll be fired exactly, but I think Pete Carroll either resigns during or after this year or he just wants to coach until he dies. I don't think Pete will ever actually be fired. He might retire or be retired at the end of the season, depending on what happens with management/ownership. I could see him staying on another year to coach the team through an ownership transition and then retire after next season being more likely though.
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Sep 1, 2022 17:07
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Kalli posted:I feel like Rhule should be flaming hot already. I don't know how he isn't just even money in the betting, who else could it even be? The Panthers have a pretty easy schedule at a quick glance, if Baker ends up being halfway decent they could finish above .500 this year and get Rhule an extension.
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Sep 1, 2022 17:24
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DariusLikewise posted:The Panthers have a pretty easy schedule at a quick glance, if Baker ends up being halfway decent they could finish above .500 this year and get Rhule an extension.
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Sep 1, 2022 17:34
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Please put Matt Patricia under spicey, even though he's not a HC or technically an OC (he is).
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Sep 1, 2022 19:09
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Chiming in to agree that this thread rules but no way is Pete Carroll getting fired. I think he definitely retires at the end of the season though. I think saleh is a sneaky firing candidate if the jets don’t improve this season and tbh I’m not convinced they will. It’s a dumb and bad management and ownership group. Mostly the ownership tho
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Sep 2, 2022 02:44
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Saleh is a guy I'll be keeping an eye on all year. I doubt they straight-up pull the plug after just two seasons, but they brought in a lot of talent this offseason and it's time to show what he can really do. The defense is the real tell here -- he's a defensive guy and it was one of the worst units in football last year, so that will be a red flag to me if he can't take care of his side of the field. And if Wilson just stinks then none of this matters anyway. I don't have Saleh warm yet, but it's an important season for him.
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Sep 2, 2022 02:54
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Bismack Billabongo posted:I think saleh is a sneaky firing candidate if the jets don’t improve this season and tbh I’m not convinced they will. It’s a dumb and bad management and ownership group. Mostly the ownership tho
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Sep 2, 2022 02:56
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I just don’t see any realistic scenario outside finishing with a top 3 pick where Saleh’s seat starts getting warm. And that would come from ownership not Joe Douglas probably and even then he’d probably get a 3rd year depending on the scenario (like massive injuries again like last year). They’ve done a good job building the roster from nothing and I think 7 wins with a healthy Wilson would be a good step.
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Sep 2, 2022 03:31
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Bismack Billabongo posted:Chiming in to agree that this thread rules but no way is Pete Carroll getting fired. I think he definitely retires at the end of the season though. They refused to fire Gase midseason. I don't think the Johnson's have fired anyone before the season ended. Honestly I can't remember the last time a Jets coach got fired before the end of the season.
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Sep 2, 2022 04:08
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Patrick Spens posted:Barring a miracle Lovie's gone at the end of the year so that the Texans can hire McCown yeah? I figure Pederson's got at least 2 years of grace before he gets the axe. Everyone said they fired Culley so they could hire McCown and either that was never the plan or ownership got scared by flack they were catching everywhere and backpedaled. Either way I can’t see them firing ANOTHER black head coach after one year to try again to hire the white guy with no experience and just repeating the whole thing. They didn’t even give him a job with the team this season.
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Sep 2, 2022 04:21
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I have watched an insane amount of Lovie making GBS threads the bed at U of I and am aware how crappy he has been since leaving the Bears but I don't care, I still believe.
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Sep 2, 2022 04:46
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Raku posted:I think Bill ends the season on the hot seat unless the team turns it around after he's forced to pull Patricia off the offense No way in hell. Bill stops coaching the Patriots when he chooses to stop. That's just how it is, too much credit and mythology built up Diva Cupcake posted:I just don’t see any realistic scenario outside finishing with a top 3 pick where Saleh’s seat starts getting warm. And that would come from ownership not Joe Douglas probably and even then he’d probably get a 3rd year depending on the scenario (like massive injuries again like last year). They're a candidate for the first overall pick, never mind a top 3 pick. I want them to succeed but I will only believe it when I see it. And I'm starting to lose a lot of faith in Wilson. I believe Saleh is a good coach but the Jets, man. What can you even say.
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Sep 2, 2022 05:56
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lovie smith vs bill belichick. who will last longer
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Sep 2, 2022 08:14
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syzpid posted:They refused to fire Gase midseason. I don't think the Johnson's have fired anyone before the season ended. Honestly I can't remember the last time a Jets coach got fired before the end of the season. quote:Twice in Jets history has there been an "interim" head coach. In 1975, Charley Winner was fired as head coach after leading the Jets to a 2–7 record.[3] The team offensive coordinator Ken Shipp was named the interim coach for the remainder of the season, during which he won only one of five games. Shipp was succeeded by Lou Holtz for the 1976 season.[4] That was the only time. Holtz in '76 quit before the last game and Holovak coached the last game, that was the only other interim HC
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Sep 2, 2022 10:15
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Play posted:No way in hell. Bill stops coaching the Patriots when he chooses to stop. That's just how it is, too much credit and mythology built up If Belichick puts together two consecutive clunker seasons, Kraft at least starts thinking about broaching a conversation about retirement. After three, that'd be the end. It's not Belichick/Kraft specific; it's just nearly impossible to build up enough cache to spend an indefinite amount of time sucking as a HC.
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Sep 2, 2022 12:35
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fsif posted:It's not Belichick/Kraft specific; it's just nearly impossible to build up enough cache to spend an indefinite amount of time sucking as a HC. And yet, Jeff Fisher lasted for so many, many years.
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Sep 2, 2022 12:46
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If they suck this year and Mac takes a step back it's not hard to make the connection between McDaniels leaving and having Matt Patricia be the OC and the blame falls on Bill for that. Kraft might be patient but he knows what is bad for business too
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Sep 2, 2022 12:47
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Nodoze posted:If they suck this year and Mac takes a step back it's not hard to make the connection between McDaniels leaving and having Matt Patricia be the OC and the blame falls on Bill for that. Kraft might be patient but he knows what is bad for business too
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Sep 2, 2022 13:28
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Yeah, Patricia as OC is OL-Coach-Juan-Castillo-as-DC levels of "what the gently caress, dude?" I don't think they named an official OC yet so the party line is Judge and Patricia are sharing the duties which is even worse. Patricia is also working the OL coaching too which.. has not worked out thus far
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Sep 2, 2022 14:19
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Nodoze posted:I don't think they named an official OC yet so the party line is Judge and Patricia are sharing the duties which is even worse. Patricia is also working the OL coaching too which.. has not worked out thus far Patricia is the OC. They are never going to make it official so he can still get his Lions' money and they don't have to pay him. Billy Yates is the actual OL coach.
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Sep 2, 2022 14:44
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Nodoze posted:I don't think they named an official OC yet so the party line is Judge and Patricia are sharing the duties which is even worse. Patricia is also working the OL coaching too which.. has not worked out thus far Patricia is the OC, but not in title. I think it has something to do with allowing him to get his full payout from the Lions for getting fired. If he was the OC I think he'd lose out on some of the salary. At least that's a rumor I heard.
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Sep 2, 2022 14:55
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