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What else is there to say, it's football season. Again. AGAIN. What is this I'm feeling here, is this...pain? Is this panic? Am I hungry? Questions for another time. So much has changed! Washington Football Team no longer! Our odds source went belly up! Again! Mickey Mouse moved our JSON cheese! Just cannot catch a break, my friends, but rest assured ElFurbe, Qwijib0, and Multigl will never quit. Never. It's entirely possible we're pathologically incapable of quitting in a diagnostically interesting way! But never mind all that, it's Season 19 and the slapfight dome is open for business! It sure looks like we'll be chasing the ghost of Walt Disney around the ESPN web properties all season so I hope Scoob and the gang brought a sammich. We've had to make some trade-offs with our odds quality vs update frequency, so we're getting a lot more lines that we're condensing into a lazy consensus, but we can't poll them as often. I mean, you'll probably never notice, unless you were compulsively checking the lines, and like, I'd probably think about keeping that to yourself, you know? I mean, if you do notice though, it'd be pretty cool if you just pretended not to notice. We're trying. The games, the games! Reliable, dependable, count-on-able. These are words that describe our position on not wanting to write any more Ruby than is absolutely necessary! That's why you'll find, yet again: Eliminator: Every week you pick a team to win. But who cares about that, once you pick a team you can't pick that team again! Just a whole game about eliminating, you're gonna be eliminating teams like it's your job because when you play Eliminator, it is your job. To eliminate. Teams. Pickem: Pick. Every. Game. That's what real ones do. Where else can your mind be faced with the maddening reality that picking between two great teams playing each other and two clown shows playing each other is equally difficult? Reverse: Why pick winners when you could pick losers? Is that the same thing, look, let's not get all "there are only two options in every contest in this league so any pick is definitionally assigning both a winner and a loser except when they tie and we all lose as a species", no no. That's not what we do here. What we do in reverse is hedge. We hedge against our regular picks for great justice. Spread: Picking straight up? Checkers. Picking with the spread? Checkers that sucks more. Funbucks: The reason Russian troll farms target us constantly! I'm tellin' you, they think it's real money. They think y'all have actual money in here and they're gonna get it. Bad news, Ivan, it's all fake. We just make it up. Nothing more to do but check on your games to be sure you're signed up for all the fun you can handle. Well, I guess you could also look over your groups. Maybe align your chakras for week one dominance. Arrange your luck totems favorably. Gather supplies for the dark rites that make your conference rivals lose. Practice the dance that brings the touchdowns. Organize your jersey collection so as each beloved player fails you, there's another player to saddle with your hope. Read the final pre-season wishcasts and pretend they matter. Brush up on what ticky-tack nonsense the officials will be focusing on this year so you can have exclamations like "Just let them play!" fueled up with high-octane righteousness in advance. For our part, and as is our way, we will soon open the tap from which email reminders flow so you won't forget to make your picks, even though you'll forget to make your picks anyway. We continue to unreliably toil making these comedy picks no one looks at but us. Why do we do it? Why does anyone do anything. The Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week: All of the woo, none of the hoo. Eternal Optimist Qwijib0 presiding. The YOLOngshot: When Laurakat in this world appears, to make the picks that others fear, to conjure hope into this sphere, the cry goes out both far and near for underdogs! (underdogs) Speed of lightning, power of thunder, taking fliers on the wonder...underdogs.....underdogs. Underdogs! The Binford 6100 Sports Better: Math machine go whirrrrrrr, nonsense appears, beep boop etc. Surprisingly not yet powered by machine learning! Just good old fashioned ElFurbe-engineered frailty here! Stop reading! Log in< and get after it already! Oh fiddlesticks, you forget your password there big shoots? Take a mulligan, reset your password, salvation lies within. Find a bug? No you didn't, they're all features. But if you want to report a feature anyway, here's our issue tracker. Homage must be paid and it shall be paid to the Progenitor of SAS Eliminator, Reaper, never forget he is the one punishing you in spirit. Especially don't forget while you're checking to see if you're ahead of him on the leaderboards. That'll show him. May your teams fail upward, may your rivals tumble endlessly, may the best minds of our respective generations continue to be destroyed by the madness that is, and could only be, SAS Eliminator. Excelsior! --- Season 18 recap: Congrats to kalensc who went 18-0 in eliminator. Pain of Mind and Aidan1967 were the pickem winners with 180 victories. Cavauro should have been playing with real dollars, ending the season with a balance of $199,619.10 --- Worst Bloodbaths Ever! 2004 Week 9 First year of eliminator and very few bets, but the Giants and Chiefs went down and when the smoke cleared only 25% of players were still standing. 2005 Week 1 The game that made Rura swear off Rams bets forever. 4 complete seasons since and not once has he bet on that cursed team. In raw terms, a 44% survival rate isn't as dramatic as most of the bloodbaths, but in terms of comedy value, A+. 2006 Week 7 Cards and Jags combined to break the hearts of well over 100 people. 29.76% remained. 2007 Week 10 Damned Saints! This was the year the Saints had suddenly become good. Unfortunately the ghost of Archie Manning put a hex on the team and they went down, taking 76 brave souls with them. (The hex was made more powerful by Archie not being dead.) 27.86% survived. 2010 Week 16 The latest mass elimination in the history of the game. 6 of the top 8 teams (ordered by # of bets) went down in flames and only 20.9% survived. 2013 Week 10 Jaguars beat Titans. Whoops. 15.49% made it through. 2015 Week 2 The god damned Saints again. Brees takes a massive L in his own stadium at the hands of Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers for Winston's first ever NFL win. Later that day, the Ravens give up a touchdown with 30 seconds left in the 4th to go down 33-37 against the Raiders. Yikes. Only 12.3% survived the worst bloodbath in Eliminator history. 2018 Week 3 In an exciting change of pace, it was the Vikings letting everyone down. Only 25.57% made it through. 2019 Week 10 Oh look, the Saints again, who could have predicted. Luckily the Colts pulled it out... oh wait, neither did they. 13% survival rate. 2022 Week 1 Who is good, who knows anything? 66% of bettors certainly didn't. I guess you can blame the rain for the 49ers, but the Titans and Broncos had no excuse. 34% Survive to week 2. --- Qwijib0 fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Sep 13, 2022 |
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Sep 6, 2022 23:27
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  let's ride
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Sep 6, 2022 23:32
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I think I lost in week 1 last year, so hopefully do better this year.
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Sep 6, 2022 23:49
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Thanks to our Elimin-overlords for running this again and best of luck to all 
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Sep 7, 2022 00:09
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this is the year i go 18-0 in eliminator. i can feel itQwijib0 posted:2015 Week 2 it fucks me up that this was like 7 years ago now lol. i vividly remember watching both of these games. also petition to change the 2019 Week 10 blurb to say "13% survival rate", it's the only one that uses kill rate instead of how many people made it through and it's making me irrationally upset
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Sep 7, 2022 01:43
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Can't wait to crash out during week 2 or whatever.
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Sep 7, 2022 03:44
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I also remember this game
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Sep 7, 2022 04:26
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Thanks for running this again. Something weird is going on with the funbuck spread bets. I'm seeing a bunch of "+52" or "+48" lines which are making the payout amounts weird:
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Sep 7, 2022 19:26
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Starting out stupid with funbucks because I should have been asleep hours ago.
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Sep 8, 2022 07:52
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solarjetman posted:Thanks for running this again. None of us are gamblers, so the calculated payouts are sort of dark magic to us-- but if you know what those numbers _should_ be roughly we can see what may have broken with our new line import source. Most of the codebase is based on what pinnacle provided, so we are having to transform some of the data to fit that model.
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Sep 8, 2022 17:22
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I picked tits In eliminator but I was really tempted to pick dolphins. The Patriots generally suck in September even when they're good in general. When I get eliminated week one it's usually from trying to be cute though so I refrained. Took the bills in reverse because the opening Thursday night game is almost always won by the home team. I'm not happy with how many away teams I picked in pick'em.
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Sep 8, 2022 17:37
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barnold posted:this is the year i go 18-0 in eliminator. i can feel it I have updated this, for you, my internet friend as thanks for running kicker eliminator.
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Sep 8, 2022 19:20
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Qwijib0 posted:None of us are gamblers, so the calculated payouts are sort of dark magic to us-- but if you know what those numbers _should_ be roughly we can see what may have broken with our new line import source. Most of the codebase is based on what pinnacle provided, so we are having to transform some of the data to fit that model. Where are you pulling the numbers from? I'm not seeing anything that would be close to that. Either way the + and - numbers should both be over 100 due to how it works. If it's +105 that means that a bet of $100 will return $105 if you win If it's -105 that means that you would need to bet $105 to get $100 if you win. (This does not include your initial bet) You should never be in a situation where you're getting less money back if you win than you bet. The - numbers look right (I'm seeing around -110 for LAR to cover for the opener) but most places seem to have the Bills at around -110 as well to cover.
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Sep 9, 2022 03:03
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Qwijib0 posted:None of us are gamblers, so the calculated payouts are sort of dark magic to us-- but if you know what those numbers _should_ be roughly we can see what may have broken with our new line import source. Most of the codebase is based on what pinnacle provided, so we are having to transform some of the data to fit that model. I'm guessing there's an off by one error and it's reading the over/under in the next column over in the CSV. Like Taerkar said - there's definitely times when a bet wins you less than the stake - Colts moneyline this week, for instance - but usually that's expressed as -200 rather than +50, and it's also usually not either side of the main point spread bet. The math is still correct given the inputs - $200 bet with "+41" odds really would win $82 - but that's not how the casinos describe the odds. Whereas numbers in the 40-50 range are often over/under lines.
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Sep 9, 2022 04:46
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Welp, in the end it was an entirely different kind of boneheaded programming stupidity, but I think I have the odds bug fixed. May none of you ever be forced to gaze upon the code crimes I commit for your amusement. Fixing all the data we've already imported will be a titanic pain in the rear end soooooo, I'm not gonna. But I did use up one extra extremely precious pull from our free odds source this month to fetch some fresh ones for you filthy animals and I believe the numbers look like the numbers are supposed to look, so hopefully you'll have opportunities to make bad decisions on some faux bets before the games start tomorrow.
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Sep 11, 2022 08:12
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thank you but i've already lost all my money from game 1. you can revert all the changes
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Sep 11, 2022 14:55
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I signed up and I'm ready to be eliminated 
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Sep 11, 2022 16:23
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Qwijib0 posted:I have updated this, for you, my internet friend as thanks for running kicker eliminator. 
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Sep 11, 2022 19:10
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same old sorry rear end bengals
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Sep 11, 2022 22:02
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When games tie, everyone loses. Makes u think
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Sep 11, 2022 22:11
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Should have known better than to bet on the Colts in a season opener. That's on me.
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Sep 11, 2022 22:56
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Qwijib0 posted:
 Thanks again to everyone who puts the time into maintaining the site and updating the threads, it hits that perfect sweet spot of extra football projections without being too time-intensive. Good luck TFF!
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Sep 11, 2022 23:05
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Knew The Dolphins were the safest bet.
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Sep 11, 2022 23:13
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And I'm out. Thanks Joe Burrow
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Sep 12, 2022 00:22
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Out in eliminator. Guess ill have to go perfect in reverse eliminator again.
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Sep 12, 2022 00:23
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Titans almost blew it.
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Sep 12, 2022 00:24
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Update they blew it. 
Qwijib0 fucked around with this message at 00:32 on Sep 12, 2022 |
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Sep 12, 2022 00:27
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rest in peace to all the brave souls who met their end today
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Sep 12, 2022 00:28
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lost my reverse eliminator thanks to the tie, lost my regular eliminator due to the tits. gently caress
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Sep 12, 2022 00:30
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I looked at week 1 last year and went, I needed something safe. Thank you Lamar Jackson and the Jets, thank you.
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Sep 12, 2022 00:30
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lol, i put both my eliminator picks on the backs of the bengals. never again. also guess i gotta temper my steelers hate
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Sep 12, 2022 00:56
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Betting against the Pats (especially these) in September against Miami was basically free.
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Sep 12, 2022 01:20
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WELP that didn't last long did it
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Sep 12, 2022 01:37
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corn on the cop posted:rest in peace to all the brave souls who met their end today And the suicidal jets pickers
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Sep 12, 2022 01:43
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 this year going well congrats to the seahawks fans
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Sep 12, 2022 01:44
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Mr. Fix It posted:lol, i put both my eliminator picks on the backs of the bengals. never again. also guess i gotta temper my steelers hate Never go double on the same game, it's just asking for horrible disaster.
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Sep 12, 2022 01:46
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Never go double on the same game, it's just asking for horrible disaster. but i was so sure that the steelers were going to be garbage 
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Sep 12, 2022 01:49
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Killed by the Colts in reg Eliminator. Some day I'll remember not to pick a division game week one.
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Sep 12, 2022 05:13
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Yay, not eliminated yet.
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Sep 12, 2022 05:41
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who's riding on this MNF broncos game like me? Wilson better crush them ohhh a lot of us. good luck fellow gamblers
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Sep 12, 2022 05:47
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