|
Marshal Prolapse posted:Ayatollah Assaholla. Protests in 2009 were plenty big and got violent (though they got so more gradually), but yeah this seems bigger. I have to confess to being a pessimist here though because this is far from the first time tensions have bubbled over in Iran, even though this is big, and all of the previous attempts have been met with the same hope at the initial coverage and photos and then the state beats heads, and perhaps more importantly shuts the protesters off from outside information, from protests in other cities and regions and from the world's attention. And while this isn't wrong CommieGIR posted:Iran has a large and young educated population that do not share the strongly conservative views of the older Revolutionary age population and its contributing heavily to this. I feel like it's a thing that's often oversimplified in quick analyses as to how significant it is, young people are not a monolithic group, the largest cohort is not university-aged students but 30-40 year olds, and more than 40 % of Iran's population is still rural and largely rather poor. That said, dissatisfaction with the regime does appear to be widespread, but the thing to keep in mind is that the regime has plenty of guys on their side willing to shoot and bash skulls, and they've done so many times before and now have more than a decade of experience helping to prop up Assad in Syria (Iran's part in that is way too often neglected or downplayed compared to that of Russia) in using exceedingly brutal means to crush dissent and active revolt. I just don't know. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 20:23 on Sep 21, 2022 |
#
¿
Sep 21, 2022 20:20
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 00:03 |
|
|
CommieGIR posted:I mean, kind of. Iran has the benefit of a LOT of highly educated and fairly liberal younger generation that hasn't bought into the theocracy that Syria and Lebanon suffered from. Since when have either Syria or Lebanon had theocracies? Part of the "appeal" (especially to Westerners trying to whitewash the loving thing) of Assad's rime is that it is secular, before 2011 it was often highlighted and praised for its modernity and progressive image (important to emphasize that image part though probably).
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2022 20:23
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:Like I said, there's a reason he likely has a Jordan Peterson av. Ba'athism is not a religion. Also, almost all Islamic countries have some Islamic law or laws derived from Islamic law in their law codes, especially in family and inheritance law. That does not make them theocracies. Whether or not a country in the Middle East is bad or not is not really strictly related to whether or not they have expunged all of Islam from their constitutions or not. In fact I'd argue that a big and distressing problem for the Arab Middle East in particular and part of why Islamism in all its varieties has the appeal it has in large part comes down to just how loving wretched almost all of those secular regimes have been.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2022 20:39
|
|
|
Yaldabaoth posted:OK, my comment was very stupid but I just dislike any religion that forces women to wear certain clothing for the sake of modesty, especially if the men are still free to wear whatever they want. 
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2022 20:48
|
|
|
CommieGIR posted:https://twitter.com/krisnova/status/1572674797771034624?s=20&t=MvPoKZt8CsvrO6xicLxpoQ Yeah, this is looking familiar  I'll probably nope out of following and posting on this going forwards until things seem to be heading a certain way, because I don't think people need me being pessimistic about this.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 21, 2022 20:58
|
|
|
20 Blunts posted:tearing up the Iran deal was probably one of the worst long term decisions the pasty asshats of the Republican party came up with under Trump. of course leave it to those provincial putzes to target the country with probably the most non-Islamic identity in their Christloving holy war. What does this even mean? This kind of stuff annoys me and I don't know how to take it. Islam is an important part of Iranian culture as in most cultures in the Middle East, but like other cultures it also has its own unique traits and history. "the most non-islamic identity", I honestly kind of hate takes like that, because I don't know what you mean and honestly it's the kind of poo poo that just sounds incredibly loving dismissing towards other Middle Eastern and Islamic cultures, and often seems to especially want to bring up the Arab Middle East as a counterpart. You'll have to excuse me, but gently caress off with that. e: Not strictly related, but it also bears mentioning that something like 40% of Iran is non-Persian. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 06:09
|
|
|
FreeRangeHexagon posted:It's not so much that Iranians are less Islamic than their neighbours, but rather that a large chunk of the population have syncretised their faith into a secular belief system more compatible with western liberalism. More compatible than what? This kind of "inherent cultural compatibility" thing typically reeks to me, implying that some countries are more receptive to or deserving of representative and/or secular systems of government than others. e: More on topic as I can't really keep away from this, but don't really use twitter myself. Has there been any more news out yesterday or today? Or are the protests being cut off? I saw one notice about anonymous doing their usual thing, claiming to have shut down government media and suggesting that people use TOR, but that's all the recent stuff I've seen trickling in in normal news. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 11:03 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 10:34
|
|
|
FPzero posted:I remember seeing an imgur album of images from pre-revolution Iran, and it was startling how similar-looking to 1970s America and Europe the country and its populace looked after only knowing of it as a dictatorship for so long. It wasn't even 50 years ago; people are still alive that remember this time period. This isn't the album I'm looking for, but it shows exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about. Maybe it can happen again. You do know those pictures are also from a brutal and hated dictatorship right? The difference between then and now isn't whether you had a dictatorship or not. el dingo posted:There is a specific hijab the moral police want you to wear, so you can still be wearing a (wrong) hijab but they can pick you up if they feel like it. Apparently the 'correct' hijab isn't really that common and it's down to bad luck if they decide to go after you. The way I've seen it in the articles about her death it wasn't the wrong type of headdress but supposedly how she wore it. Remember that "hijab" doesn't really refer to a garment but to a style of dress in line with (interpretations of) Islamic modesty. For a long while women in Iran have often worn their headscarves rather far back, often exposing a good deal of the front of their hair (but still covering the neck and shoulders), and often in bright colors and patterns. Until pretty recently this style though it was often criticized by conservatives it was not really legally restricted as some previous governments had somewhat relaxed at least the enforcement of rules, and soit was generally socially acceptable and safe and has been for something like 2 decades, then again recently with the new more conservative government enforcement has been re-emphasized and the morality police have gotten bolder and more aggressive with this official backing. Even if the authorities crush the demonstrations, I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to back down a bit on the enforcement of "modest clothing", possibly even reprimanding or diminishing the authority of the morality police, in order to guarantee some order. Maybe. Though they would almost certainly wait a while before doing so, in order to not appear to give in to presssure. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 15:14
|
|
|
bob dobbs is dead posted:the glamour photos are universally of urban peeps. rural peeps were wearing hijab and the like that whole time, a lot of it is continuing dominance of rurals over urban peeps enabled by the dominance of the oil industry over actually productive sectors, because you can be rural and uneducated and take oil earnings whereas if you're making machines or software or selling services you need to be educated, almost always in urban centers It's also notable that you had similar trends in other countries in the Middle East and wider Islamic world at the same time, even in Saudi Arabia (IIRC it was really the aftermath of the grand mosque seizure in 1979 that really created what we today associate with Saudi Arabia) and Afghanistan (under Daoud Khan and also the Soviet-supported DRA). This was not some uniquely Iranian thing, and there is a tendency among many Iranian exiles and some Westerners who look at pictures like that without thinking of their context to idealize and whitewash the Shah's regime. e: Anyway, asking again, is there any news anyone has seen or is there silence? Only thing I've seen is a repost of an AFP news notice that 31 people have been killed. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 15:52 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 15:32
|
|
|
Blue Footed Booby posted:I'm not seeing how these two positions are related, or how it generalizes to the entire group I don't like them, they must hate the things I like. bob dobbs is dead posted:communism is not really too compatible w theocracy, opiate of the people and so on What does that have to do with anything? Randarkman fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 16:37
|
|
|
bob dobbs is dead posted:cuz theyre communists RatM? Okay. Though if they're pimping NFTs I don't know how ideologically compatible that is with communism either. anyway. Maybe we should stop that derail.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 16:44
|
|
|
pro starcraft loser posted:Is it just me or is this not getting the coverage it should in the US media? Might just be that traditional news haven't really been able to get much wind of good coverage past the initial videos and pictures that started coming out a few days ago. Past protests in Iran have typically gotten decent coverage until they were silenced. I don't really know about US media though, as I'm not American, but it's fully possible that it's just getting drowned out with other news. e: Also you know, the authorities are actually actively attempting to cut off the protesters from the outside world. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 17:26 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 17:23
|
|
|
Tai posted:My whole knowledge of Islam and it's various branches is very very limited but in regards to the various dress codes countries have, is it a Quran thing or something a bunch of old dudes decided to do later on? The basis is Quran plus various traditions of hadiths for further elaboration. Sharia is Islamic law, according to that revealed in the Quran and also presented in the hadiths, however actually getting this into a workable legal system and moral code is more complicated which is why there's a difference between the ideal infallible Sharia and that which is put into practice according to interpretation and tradition, that's Fiqh. So what you have are quranic verses that emphasize modesty and separation of the sexes, some more specific, some vaguer than others, then you also have a myriad of others, then these are interpreted into actual practice. IIRC the verse most often cited is the one that mentions women draping a specific garment (the identity of which is often debated) about themselves to cover up some part of themselves and men not exposing their bellies or lower legs, something along those lines. e: Question would it be better if the quran directly said to beat women who wear their headscarves too loose? Randarkman fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 17:52
|
|
|
yeti friend posted:So you always act like an rear end in a top hat to people asking genuine questions or what? I probably did interpret the question unfairly with that last added line. So I'm sorry about that and you're right to call it out. The rest of the answer still basically stands though, like Sharia, what actually consitutes hijab (which in its actual meaning is modest dress, not the more modern type of Islamic headscarf, though meanings of words shift) has been interpreted and enforced differently depending on time and place. e: I'd say the most significant thing with the implementation in Iran is how its being enforced in an arbitrary and brutal manner by a bunch of creeps who are widely despised. That tends to make whatever whatever it is that's being enforced a symbol of oppression. With that in mind it doesnt really matter if the Iranian version of "modest dress" is more or less strict than in many other countries. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Sep 22, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 18:31
|
|
|
Bad Purchase posted:what if the scarf is even sexier though Funny thing, somewhat high fashion 19th and early 20th century Ottoman styles had the veil be basically transparent. 
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 19:00
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:Seems like it was posted around this morning, I think she's cutting her hair in a "don't tell me what to do" gesture I think the hair-cutting has been a thing that some women have done as a show of solidarity and middle finger to the regime from when this thing first blew up. Don't think I've seen one in public yet, but there's been pictures and videos of people doing it at home since the start.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 21:05
|
|
|
drat, that's actually beautiful in a way.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 22:39
|
|
|
Tai posted:I actually wasn't being flippant or dismisive etc of anything. I have very little knowledge of how this all works. My apologises if I came across as something you didn't like. I appreciate the roll back in tone in later posts from you. I'll just throw in that I am an aethist and will never 'get' this fully. Sorry dude. I can't really excuse my tone, but I am sorry.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 22, 2022 22:47
|
|
|
Mistle posted:Transparent fabric back then was high quality and craftsmanship, conspicuous wealth. When you have that much money, you can do what you want. I mean, outside of like relatively small things such city states like Florence under Savonarola (and that lasted all of 4 years) you aren't really gonna find any pre- or early 20th century society that aspired to or much less succeeded at imposing the kind of social control that even milder modern autocracies could accomplish. Still dress code was definitely a thing, women in Ottoman cities did go around veiled, often heavily (though as you see, that veil might be transparent). Although its exact details were probably (I haven't looked into the specifics, likely gonna vary wildly within any country) far less exact and specific than what Iran, Saudi Arabia or Afghanistan operate with.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 23, 2022 00:22
|
|
|
They're really following their textbook here huh.. God. Part of what has me scared is that I'm pretty sure this is kind of true Dapper_Swindler posted:i think if the regime doesn't implode because of this, it will either have to reform heavly to save itself from these protests coming every year OR it will implode bad. An thatd there is a more sickening option that rather than promise reforms, they might want to make an example. I don't know, probably, hopefully, not, but my mind kind of keeps wandering to Syria, maybe more specifically Hama in 82 than the civil war, but that's still a loving chilling thought and that basically coerced a generation of Syrians into terrified silence.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 23, 2022 02:01
|
|
|
Samovar posted:Yeah, Iran seems much more glad to cut off internet to their people than Russia, I guess cause the latter would totally undermine it being all ok despite the mobilization. It's possibly due to protests being more common in Iran than in Russia to begin with, and this is basically the anti-protest strategy the Iranian state has been operating with for more than a decade at this point. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Sep 23, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 23, 2022 13:20
|
|
|
bob dobbs is dead posted:that shits sunni fundamentalism. iran is the most shia country in the world It's not really as simple as that. There's a general tendency assume Islam is much more monolithic and consistent than it actually is, and that goes for both Sunni and Shia Islam. Looking into the history, it's actually more of an Iranian thing than a Shi'ite thing. Historically Shi'ite scholars were not particularly more likely to approve of depicting the Prophet or his family than Sunni scholars, the thing is though that in parts of Iran, particularly in Persia (which is in the southwest) IIRC, it was actually not too uncommon to depict the Prophet, Ali and other saints and martyrs in art, face and all. And this was true when Iran was overwhelmingly Sunni in persuasion, the Shi'ism came later. Shi'ism in Iran is actually a very specific kind of Shi'ism, and it developed an even more specific guise in Iran under the Safavids and their successors because unlike Islam in most other countries it became organized in a very hierarchical and independent manner that actually kind of resembles "a church". This curious development (for an Islamic country) actually is a large part of the explanation for why you actually have the clergy seizing power in Iran, going back to the 19th century the conflict between the monarchy and the religious establishment was steadily intensifying, and it got even more so with secularist monarchs like Reza Shah. Dapper_Swindler posted:this. shia doesn't care outside maybe bluring out Muhmmad's face with holy light/flame/etc. they sell big posters of Ali, Hasan, Husayn and others in stalls. Again the caveat about it really being more of an Iranian thing, but you have straight up depictions of Muhammad as well. Face and all. My girfriend from back in high school had a necklace/medallion with an image of Muhammad. satanic splash-back posted:So how long until the government starts shooting? They've already been shooting. The death toll we're seeing is probably far lower than the real one. Though honestly it kind of seems like the authorities are in a bit of a disarray at the moment and at a loss for how to respond. Getting your hopes up can be dangerous, but honestly things seem pretty hopeful. If this is as big as it seems, I'm not sure how they can beat this down, simple reforms will not be enough to turn things around either I'm pretty sure. Assad had Iran, Hezbollah and Russia to back him up in slaughtering his people and could also depend on sectarian divisions that had been cultivated for decades. Unless China steps up (though I don't really know exactly what they could do, or what their reach in the Middle East is like), there's really no foregin help coming for the Ayatollahs, all they have is the IRGC. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 04:55 on Sep 24, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 24, 2022 04:48
|
|
|
Somewhat interestingly and not directly tied to this, but somewhat reminiscent. Someone who had recently been in Riyadh remarked in the DnD Middle East thread that it had become very "liberal" recently and that the religious police were basically gone. A quick look around seems to kind of confirm this, which is kind of interesting in light of these protests, basically, starting in 2016, the power of the Saudi religious police seems to have been almost completely neutered, at least officially, they are now banned from "pursuing, questioning, asking for identification, arresting and detaining anyone suspected of a crime". Again, not directly related to this, but interesting to make note of.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2022 14:56
|
|
|
Strategic Tea posted:I'm only guessing, and the Saudi religious police may indeed be out of favour, but I massively doubt it is becoming more secular. Well, yes that is at least a part of it, but getting rid of the laws (supposedly some are gone others are now more codified and wearing headscarves is practically optional) and enforcement (which only really stepped up in Saudi Arabia after 1979... similar to Iran) has wider ramifications for society, and from from the viewpoint of a dictatorship it bascically shuts off an avenue of social discontent. In a way what I'd say you have here is the monarchy asserting itself internally against the religious establishment, which grew massively in strength after 1979, by seemingly eliminating their most visible display of power in the country.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 25, 2022 15:18
|
|
|
hot cocoa on the couch posted:would love to see a united kurdistan come out of this but i feel like turkeys position in nato means it would never get the western support it needs to survive Turkey, Erdogan or otherwise, still has (if memory serves) a rather cordial relationship with the KRG in Iraq and extensive economic ties, depending on exactly who would end up in charge of some autonomous (independent seems unlikely IMO) Iranian Kurdistan, I don't think you can assume automatic hostility. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 00:14 on Sep 26, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Sep 26, 2022 00:10
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:yeah i hope so. i havent seen much news on it in the mainstream news sadly. Probably in part because they're about as well informed as we are with that vidoes, or less if they've kind of given up. It seems all that's coming out is some pictures and videos that something is still coming out, the Iranian state doesn't seem to be saying much at all, and occasionally you have public figures making statements or Iranian communities abroad protesting at embasssies. Most recent, I think, was a footballer (Sardar Azmoun) on the national mens' team who criticized the government and gave support to the protests on instagram, then after a while all of his posts were deleted.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 27, 2022 07:30
|
|
|
Yolomon Wayne posted:the (sad) reason is: nobody gives a gently caress about iran is why. Nah there is more going on than just that. News from Iran is getting drowned out, Iran is somewhat further down the ladder of importance in many countries but there's countless places that people care far less about than Iran (I'd say that Iran and the Middle East in general rank somewhat highly in terms of places people in the West care about news from compared to most of the rest of Asia as well as Latin America and Africa). News also have a hard time finding their way out in general, we're mostly seeing videos and pictures from social media, and the regime is basically saying nothing.
|
|
#
¿
Sep 27, 2022 12:28
|
|
|
Heard from a (Norwegian) news report about a protest that was planned for this weekend in front of the embassy, mostly Kurds, becuase that's who's organized it, but also because Mahsa Amin had family here. Anyway the person who was interviewed said that Iran had (using drones and other means) recently carried out strikes against Kurdish refugee camps in Northern Iraq. Looking that up, it seems like it's corroborated. https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/13-iranian-kurds-killed-northern-iraq-iranian-strikes
|
|
#
¿
Oct 1, 2022 18:28
|
|
|
GolfHole posted:uhh hmm Dude, you can make up whatever reality you want about this, but that doesn't make it true that this isn't being covered. You can go into most American and other english news sites and either look or search for "Iran" and find several articles, from today and from the last few days. All the previous times there have been protests in Iran, including in 2019 and especially the 2009 green movement, it was extensively covered by Western media, including in the US. This time it's getting overshadowed as far as headlines go, but you are basically making up your own reality that this is deliberately not being covered. poo poo, there was that one American republican ghoul who called on the US to support the protesters early on in these ones. The hatred for of the American right for the Iranian regime very much extends to wanting to publicly support anti-regime protests. They also are often big fans of bringing up those 1960s and 1970s glamour photos from the time when the Shah ruled. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Oct 1, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Oct 1, 2022 18:47
|
|
|
GolfHole posted:i just profess: there is a reason you don't hear about liberal revolutions in "axis of evil" countries and it's because thinking "we are all one" is not conducive to nationalism. i'd love if we lived in the star trek future where every democracy can stand on its own rules of law, but clearly we're still in the phase of humanity where the government will shoot you for cutting your hair This is patently false, especially with Iran, every time there's been signficant anti-government protests in Iran it's been extensively covered in Western press.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 1, 2022 18:50
|
|
|
GolfHole posted:i honestly feel like im in the bizzaro zone where saying "the united states hates iran" is goofy, but aight. backing out ignobly, What you were saying that people reacted to was that US and Western media deliberately does not cover Iranian anti-regime protests. This is extremely untrue. You also fundamentally misunderstand how the US and especially right-wing antagonism towards Iran manifests itself.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 1, 2022 19:03
|
|
|
PIZZA.BAT posted:Yeah there’s a protest song that’s been played often at all the events i’ve been to and it’s not just about the hijab- it goes over all the grievances the people have with the government and there’s a lot of them. The hijab issue is what kicked things off but just like how it wasn’t JUST about the one woman being killed in custody it’s also not JUST the hijab. I’ve asked a few Persians about this and they agreed- it’s way past the point where just that one concession will be enough to satisfy them. It's a small gripe, but maybe don't generalize Iranians as "Persians" (though I guess everyone you spoke to might have been)? Persians make up 60% of the population, and Persia is only a specific region in Southwestern Iran, the country is not Persia nor are all of its people Persians. The woman who was killed was Kurdish and the most significant demonstrations and clashes have been in Iranian Kurdistan, and abroad it seems the Iranian Kurdish diaspora have often taken a leading role in solidarity protests as well.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 3, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
PIZZA.BAT posted:Everyone I speak to identifies as Persian but I also don’t know what the rules are. My girlfriend’s hometown is where this all kicked off and she refers to herself as Persian / Kurdish interchangeably. I’m well aware that the Kurdish region has been receiving the worst of this. Two of her friends are arab-Iranian and they refer to themselves as Persian as well. Maybe it’s just something they say to ignorant foreigners but i’ve never picked up on any of them taking issue with it I guess it might be a host country thing, I don't think I've ever encountered "Persian" used much either by or referring to Iranians in Norway, but doing so seems more common in Canada and the United States and possibly the Anglosphere in general. Still I'd say that referring to the country and inhabitants in general, it's better to use Iranian than Persian, because there is a difference, even though anecdotally the use case might not be as clear cut among (in this case) the Iranian diaspora itself, a thing I'd again hazard to guess might have to do with the words that are used in the respective host countries' languages.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 4, 2022 00:14
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:It's really difficult for me to get a good feeling of what's going on on the ground, but if the sorts of protests we've seen earlier are still going on, it's definitely a good sing. I don't think any regime, no matter how violent or coercive, can survive when the majority of the people are taking a stand against it. I mean, there's Syria and although you can point to its sectarian divisions, that was still a case of the majority of the population taking a stand against the regime, for months on end, and then the regime just kept doubling down on the violence and now... well. That said, based on the limited information I have of what's going on, I don't really see how their authority survives this, reforms alone aren't gonna do it I think. It does seem to me like it's either fold or go full violent and burn the country the ground with a chance of ruling the ashes. I'm not sure they really can do the latter without securing some international backing or guarantees. That almost certainly can't be Russia in the current situation, unlike Syria Iran doesn't have an "Iran" to prop them up and bring in militias either (though I wonder if they might be trying to get in Hezbollah and Iraqi militias if they get really desperate), that might be China, though they usually strike me as far too cautious (they are often quick to insist on non-interference in other countries, and the Iranian regime seems like they're going heavily on the protesters being driven by "foreign agents" in that press release from totally alive and not dead Ali Khamenei).
|
|
#
¿
Oct 7, 2022 19:18
|
|
|
Oh god
|
|
#
¿
Oct 10, 2022 10:44
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:Possibly but isn’t Iran way more culturally homogeneous plus the protests are happening in most major cities? Like Syria is a different kettle of fish. While Persian culture and language is highly influential, Iran is still much more ethnically diverse than is often realized, obviously there's the Kurds where there is some separatists/autonomist sentiment along with much more minor movements (largely dissipated I think) among Arabs in Khuzestan and the Baloch regions in the southeast. Azerbaijanis are the largest ethnic minority (almost 20%) but I don't think I've really heard of much in the way of separatist sentiment from there in modern times (also consider that the country of Azerbaijan was created from Russian conquests of the Iranian Caucasus, and that many Iranian royal dynasties have been Azerbaijanis and other Turks, and they used to traditionally highly represented in the officer class). What is correct is that Iran probably has way less sectarian tensions than Syria did (though with Syria don't discount that many did not consider its ethnic and religious tensions to be particularly notable before the civil war broke out, even though they were there obviously). Protests in Syria didn't really start out highly sectarian, one notable thing with them to begin with was that there were major protests in Alawite and Kurdish areas as well, as the civil war broke out of the protests and the regime actively fostered those divisions further that's when they became what I guess alot of people associate with the Syrian civil war. All in all I don't really have enough information to say that I think this is it or not for the Ayatollahs, though with how broad these protests seen, I have a hard time seeing how they can quell it and retain power, even with extensive reforms (reforms that would probably cost them their grip on power), unless there's an exceedingly violent crackdown, but I'm not really sure that can work either, they have the IRGC and the Basiji, but I'm not really sure that alone is enough for them unless they can solidly split the population in some way. I also think they would need some kind of official foreign diplomatic support in order to begin such a crackdown, and I haven't really seen that either.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 11, 2022 13:13
|
|
|
Strategic Tea posted:Also Iran has a coherent national ideology, a sincere if evil political class, and would like to preserve itself as one of the leading non Western powers in the world. It can't do that if it goes on a free for all rampage gassing and bombing its own cities. Eh, it's kind of a bit more than that. While Assad's regime is essentially personal-focused and Iran's is ideological/revolutionary in a sense, Assad's Syria (Hafez and Bashar) has also always played up the "resist the west" part (while often courting Western business and such at the same time). I would also again like to note that Russia's part in Syria is often overemphasized, Russia was of paramount importance in diplomatically shielding the Syrian regime, but when it comes to actually on-the-ground and day-to-day military operations and all that I would posit that the role played by Iran and it's Iraqi and Hezbollah allies was much more important than Russian aircraft terrorbombing markets. If Assad is a puppet (and puppets are often not as strictly subservient as often imagined) then he is as much an Iranian puppet as a Russian one.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 11, 2022 15:09
|
|
|
mobby_6kl posted:These loving people! I think even the French get tired of protesting a month in. Arab Spring demonstrations went on for months, in Syria they began in February, somewhat small at first, then from March until July were basically continuous until that turned into the civil war. French might be at top in Europe, but they got nothing on the Middle East.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2022 19:44
|
|
|
People did that during the last round of protests as well. Honestly it's probably not that much of a big deal (though monarchists aren't uncommon among the Iranian diaspora at least, particularly in North America). I'd say it's kind of a spiteful gently caress you sort of thing to the regime from people who are sick of them telling them who is bad and who their enemy is, from the same people who treat them like poo poo and are running the country into the ground. Kind of like how the Arab Spring movements often went for the older flags rather than the ones used by the current regimes and stuff like that.
Randarkman fucked around with this message at 07:56 on Oct 13, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Oct 12, 2022 22:28
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 00:03 |
|
|
BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:It would probably reach a compromise like post-Franco Spain did of constitutional figurehead (not really since you’re never a figurehead with that much fame and attention) monarchy p quickly if it got to that point and the monarchist faction actually exists and is sizeable instead of being some dudes just trolling tbh. I mean, the monarchists actually do exist, and all in all the monarchy didn't go away that long ago, and as proven by how often the "can you believe what Iran was iike the 70s?!"-thing pops up, at least abroad, they're actually pretty good at the whole image thing. I have no real idea what the likely outcome of all this is. Though a return of the monarchy would be a little bit out of left field.
|
|
#
¿
Oct 13, 2022 08:09
|
|