Iran Protests: Rock the Casbah Redux

The Something Awful Forums > Main > General Bullshit > Iran Protests: Rock the Casbah Redux

20 Blunts: Jan 21, 2017

Eric Cantonese posted:

I apologize for duplicating a post I just made in D&D, but I'm eager to learn more about what's going on in Iran.

From what I understand, while the conventional military is probably more sympathetic to the Iranian people, the Revolutionary Guards and associated thugs are pretty united and have all the best weapons and tools for violence. Corruption has helped keep them wealthy too, so there isn't a lot of major factional disputes among the mullahs.

This isn't like 1979 where the Shah wasn't decisive enough to repress protests quickly enough before discontent spread in the army. I fear a lot of these protestors are going to die and there's not much any foreign country can do to help them out because no alternative leadership is in the country to supplant the IRI. Anything resembling regime change is a pipe dream.

I'd love for any Iran experts here to correct me if I'm wrong.

im no expert but as far as foreign relations, i think theres a big dumb feedback loop between the repressive government + Revolutionary Guard doing their thing, and then every X amount of years the Republicans here in America reinvigorate the "bomb Iran" sentiment and the people of Iran feel scared and the right-wing hardliners in their country get support.

tearing up the Iran deal was probably one of the worst long term decisions the pasty asshats of the Republican party came up with under Trump. of course leave it to those provincial putzes to target the country with probably the most non-Islamic identity in their Christloving holy war.

i really wanted to travel to Iran one day, my best friend is Persian.

# ¿ Sep 22, 2022 03:30

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20 Blunts: Jan 21, 2017

if we're still chatting about how this is getting covered in the states...i mean NYT had this weird article out over the weekend about how protests aren't working anymore across the globe, concluding with:

quote:

While it is hardly the case that mass protests now necessarily fail in today�s world, their plummeting odds of success may have ripple effects beyond even the decline of democracy.

For one thing, armed rebellion, long disavowed by democracy activists as counterproductive, has seen its effectiveness decline more slowly than that of nonviolent protest, the Harvard data shows, making the two methods now nearly tied in their odds of succeeding.

�For the first time since the 1940s, a decade dominated by state-backed partisan rebellions against Nazi occupations,� Dr. Chenoweth has written, �nonviolent resistance does not have a statistically significant advantage over armed insurrection.�

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/world/middleeast/iran-protests-haiti-russia-china.html

# ¿ Oct 4, 2022 01:56

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