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acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing
https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1594095343590858753

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acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Grape posted:

Assad held on due to

1. Outside military help from multiple sources.
2. Being able to divide his population on sectarian grounds and therefore retain loyalty from big chunks of it.

Number one is... unlikely? At least from major sources. Like Hezbollah sure, but lol at them being a huge factor in something this big. Russia might have shelled out again or something, but lol, lmao.
Number two would be very hard for the regime to pull off unless these protests were largely centered around a minority to begin with. Otherwise this really isn't an option for them.

Tempers seem hottest in Mahabad, which is the traditional capital of Kurdish resistance in Iran, but the protests are clearly too broad to portray it as a Kurdish movement. Iran is already trying to play the sectarian card, but I don't think it will work as well as it did in Syria. A lot of the anger in Iranian Kurdistan is based around the same poo poo that young Persians are out protesting about. The largest riots in recent years in Mahabad happened after a girl there committed suicide to escape being raped by an IRGC official, for instance. They're going to have a hard time painting these people as violent Kurdish separatists who are more dangerous than the state.

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing
Gives a good sense of just how pissed off people are at the Iranian government.

https://twitter.com/AlinejadMasih/status/1597805116920565760

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Nenonen posted:

I'm sure it's just a symbol of individual freedom against moral police etc. Like someone waving a Soviet flag in an anti-capitalist demonstration does not necessarily support Brezhnevist stagnation and KGB and military quelling of protests.

You also see a lot of pro-shah stuff in Iran for the same reason. For the youth he's a symbol of a government that isn't dominated by religious extremists. But I'm sure if the Iranian government collapsed, and everyone was standing around in the aftermath, it's not like they would all be like well what's Reza Pahlavi up to these days? Lets get this monarchy poppin again!

acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Dumb history question. When Iran kicked out the Shah in 79, it was ostensibly a student revolution, right? How did a theocratic government emerge from that? The last thing I can I imagine a bunch of angry students arguing for is more religion in their lives.

The revolution was supported by people all of all demographics in the beginning, but Khomeini was the figurehead and leader. Once the shah fell, he quickly went to work with crushing any internal opposition, culminating with the massacres of political prisoners in '88.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_executions_of_Iranian_political_prisoners

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acidx
Sep 24, 2019

right clicking is stealing
Borzou has been as reliable as anyone on Iran for years.

https://twitter.com/borzou/status/1599426939474755584

What I've seen lately makes it seem like Iran is preparing itself for the long haul if anything. Lots of riot gear and equipment coming in.

acidx fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Dec 4, 2022

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