|
Charliegrs posted:How do these protests compare in scale to the 2009 protests? It seems like it might be even bigger this time. way more intense 
|
#
¿
Nov 18, 2022 05:09
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 16:42 |
|
|
https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1593419616335937538 I think they're right, it's progressing rapidly, is extremely widespread, people are increasingly fighting back and the regime is using extremely heavy violence in response. Some of the stuff out of Iran looks like an almost carbon copy of what was going on in Syria back in 2011.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 18, 2022 14:37
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean they were murdering kids after the revolutions by spewing psychotic religious horse poo poo and turning them into loving 40k level suicide infantry irregulars in the iran iraq war. It looks similar to how Syria got started but I wouldn't assume it will go the same way. At least from people in Iran I talk to the perception is strongly that the IRGC is basically rock solidly in support of the regime and that Syria-style defections will not be a thing. It's possible that is an incorrect analysis, but I'm inclined to think it's largely correct. Iran has ethnic divisions, but much more peripherally so than Syria, which is literally a minority alawi rule over a suuni majority. Iran in contrast is majority rule, albeit over a number of non-trivial, but generally significantly marginalized minority groups. stephenthinkpad posted:Has the Supreme leader thrown a couple moral police mid tier managers to jail first? Just do something to appease part of the crowd. It's way beyond that and that wouldn't begin to be enough. The regime is currently all in on putting the protests down violently through escalating levels of repression. The idea of promising a token reform and people will just go home honestly hasn't really been a thing in this entire wave of protests. people are just done with significant parts of the status quo. Grape posted:Assad held on due to 1 is already happening to some extent and rumors are out there that it is happening to a significant extent. Iran has quite a few groups with relevant experience to call on, most notably SAA, Hez, Iraqi PMFs, and if push comes to shove they have a number of other groups that owe them favors. Significantly, all of those groups have a lot of recent combat experience, and particularly in counter insurgency and shooting some civilians in Iran is pretty much a vacation compared to fighting daesh in Eastern Syria. I wouldn't discount that. On the other hand, I'd expect the heat to turn up in Syria because Shia paramilitaries can only be in so many places at once. 2 I think is less true in Syria actually, it was an Alawi minority + a bunch of Sunnis at war with basically a bunch of other predominately Sunni factions, at least for most of the war. Assad held on far more because of 1. More significantly on 2, and actually in a way that at least according to Iranians seems more directly applicable is that there was a significant campaign of false flag attacks coupled with timely releases of extremist prisoners in order to paint the entire opposition as extremist terrorists... even before that basically became a self-fulfilling thing. Iranians I've talked to who are involved in the protest seem to expect the Iranian government to do something similar. tldr there are a lot of similarities to the situation in syria, but there are also really significant differences between them. still, it is striking just how much this really, really looks like the early days of the Syrian civil war Berg posted:I've been to Iran a couple of times, last in 2014, and it's easily been my favourite place to travel. Unfortunately I don't think we should be too optimistic about any meaningful systemic change in the near future. While there are a lot of protests going on, the numbers probably aren't there for the regime to start seeing them as a genuine challenge to their rule. A friend of mine went around Tehran a couple of days ago after returning to the country briefly from Europe and couldn't find any signs of unrest. She said everything was just going on as normal, so it seems the protests are still quite small and isolated when they occur, with the news and social media coverage perhaps giving an impression that they are much more widespread than they really are. yeah agreed with this. small point that basij are different from the morality police, but otherwise pretty much dead on to my understanding. The lack of any political alternative or even really any effective opposition is a particular key point for why this has skipped the whole 'promise reforms and then don't do poo poo' stage. There's both no real political avenue to pressure for reforms and the supreme council completely does not give a solitary gently caress about implementing reforms to make a bunch of godless urbanites happy. It really looks like there's no resolution to any of this that doesn't involve the people of Iran pretty much completely disassembling the current Iranian regime. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 23:59 on Nov 20, 2022 |
|
#
¿
Nov 20, 2022 23:25
|
|
|
Iran can also go hard on the Kurdish cities as a warning to other cities without as much risk of provoking things nationally (albeit that calculus likely is off... the unrest has been largely across ethnic lines). It's basically the Syrian model of attacking one city exceptionally hard to warn the others, eg the Hama massacre(s) in the 1980s or the city sieges early in the Syrian civil war.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 30, 2022 08:40
|
|
|
Iranian people were pretty significantly pro-America 20 years ago, particularly younger/urban and that continued as many people grew up sharing pirated american tv shows and stuff. That affinity has definitely not disappeared, though it's no doubt diminished somewhat. It's hard to overstate just how much Iran's government does not in any way represent the views of significant numbers of Iranians.
|
|
#
¿
Nov 30, 2022 12:48
|
|
|
acidx posted:Borzou has been as reliable as anyone on Iran for years. yeah that's my impression. even Iranians don't seem to think that that report was anything other than a misreading of a confusing statement
|
|
#
¿
Dec 5, 2022 02:07
|
|
|
Vampire Panties posted:https://twitter.com/cnn/status/1400487451311984653 date
|
|
#
¿
Jan 29, 2023 08:18
|
|
;
comedy take - Israel sees Iran as competition for Russia's arms market, so they did the needful
|
|
| # ¿ May 16, 2024 16:42 |
|
|
ah that makes sense, I was wondering
|
|
#
¿
Jan 29, 2023 08:58
|
|