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Kavros
May 18, 2011

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For the fall I'm genuinely mostly interested in the competition for the absolute bottom of the barrel for quality of GOP candidates and GOP representatives — who are the ten worst sitting federal representatives and why? Who are the ten worst new midterm candidates and why? They feel like they've been competing against themselves to see if they can nominate the absolute worst people possible, and the reasons get more and more surreal. You got strange people who would even challenge Boebert and Greene. You have candidates who have obviously mentally compromised enough that they are candidates for long term care, but they're being put forth as the GOP's best.

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Kavros
May 18, 2011

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FlamingLiberal posted:

This guy was in charge of the ‘election integrity office’ which you can take a guess what that’s about

Upholding the ... integrity of ... elections?

*usage of the word integrity varies between individuals and may in this case refer solely to the integrity of conservative electoral noncompetitiveness schemes and/or dogwhistles designed to derive turnout among racists and ethnonationalists. side effects include autocratic or regulatory capture, fascist parallels, or fatal heart attacks. integrity may not be for everyone. consult your doctor before using integrity

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Epic High Five posted:

God willing the courts force him to take ownership and he does something good for once in shuttering the whole thing out of spite.

I honestly don't know what he's going to do. To greatly oversimplify it, he's got to wring more out of twitter than it already (arguably unsustainably) makes ... way more ... just to service the debt he puts himself in to pay off the purchase.

What's he going to do, cram even more ads on there and accelerate viewership decline? poach even more user data and sell it to the absolute worst people? How do you wring blood from the stone? There's absolutely no way he gets away ahead on this. Forget the myth of the self-made billionaire, he's the self-owned billionaire

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Main Paineframe posted:

Based on both his public claims and private stuff that came out during discovery, Musk's plans for Twitter include convincing a bunch of people to sign up for optional paid subscription services (like Twitter Blue), mass layoffs of Twitter employees to cut costs, maybe a Twitter-based payments system, and assuming Twitter's actual human userbase will triple within three years after he bans all the bots and unbans all the brave free speech warriors of the far right. There's also other ideas he's tossed around but clearly hasn't thought through, like charging important people a fee to tweet, creating a blockchain-based Twitter database to resist censorship, or turning Twitter into a WeChat competitor.

Oh, he's utterly hosed on this then.

Too bad being a billionaire means that you can gently caress up almost as much as you want and still be a billionaire

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Zinkovich posted:

The mention of "elites" tells me she's probably trying to do a Trump, but I don't think it's going to work. You can't out-Trump true believers, and DeSantis is far ahead of her on building a reputation of "standing up to the liberal conspiracy and triggering the leftists."

It's weird watching so many people try to do the trump 'thing' just with the word association stuff, and not the bizarrely hypnotic conman charisma. They always end up just feeling like soulless robots.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Main Paineframe posted:

I can't think of a bigger red flag of institutional rot in Twitter than newly instituting stack ranking in 2022. It's an infamously bad practice in the tech industry, notorious for its longtime use in Microsoft, where its numerous flaws have been very well documented. Throwing Twitter's entire workforce into a crab bucket and only keeping the first 25% to climb out could very well be devastating.

I cannot understand why the majority of the substantially talented project managers, various task administrators of various types / people who make tasks get done ever, and qualified senior engineers who get the poo poo put together (to say nothing of the marketing and design people who have to fight to keep twitter appealing and relevant) would ever, ever, ever want to fight an endless battle royale amongst each other for the privilege and honor of sitting atop the mismanaged ruins of the company.

They're dusting off their everything.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Now, the U of FL is just banning indoor protests and telling all news organizations who want a comment to see their statement announcing his hire.

Well, if there's anything we can rely on college students for, it's historically never violating any prohibition on where and when they're allowed to protest. Problem solved.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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*full flag fringe

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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I laughed out loud reading the exchange between Musk and Stephen King. It's one thing to bargain, or even feel forced to bargain against your initial proposal. But to do it the way he did it felt so absolutely impotent. It was like he WANTED to argue from a place of weakness. "Okay look, I desperately gotta get the bills paid on this one, advertisements just aren't doing it .. would .. i know i said twenty but you think you could do eight? please man"

And none of it is even remotely an appeal that works against King's genuine noninterest in the concept, he knows musk is turning the checkmark into a vanity turd that he wants at neither price point

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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evilweasel posted:

so here's the thing about loading $13b of debt onto a company that has $1b of interest payments per year: suddenly you don't have an option except to be short sighted. it turns the company's cashflows into something like blood: it doesn't really matter if you have more than enough blood today, and more than enough blood a week from now, if tomorrow you don't have enough. you die.

musk is not making the short-sighted decisions that dumb CEOs make when they are trying to juice shareholder value in the near terms and/or junior execs doing Things They Take Credit For. they are going to wind up with similar results, but they're from a fundamentally different place.

musk cannot afford to make long-term decisions because he must get twitter to generate $1 billion of free cash flow per year, very fast - just to keep up with the interest payments. this is why highly leveraged companies (highly leveraged means, basically, it has a ton of debt compared to its real value) make bad decisions. their "cost of capital" - what they have to pay in interest to get a dollar - is very high, so an employee that generates a reasonable return on the costs of employing that employee may be just not worth it to the company after you factor that in. it's why leveraged buyouts result in companies getting sold off for parts and other seemingly stupid decisions where value is destroyed. the reason their "cost of capital" is so high is that when you lend money you are (generally) last behind the existing creditors - so a highly leveraged company can't really take out new debt except at extortionate interest rates and/or by stealing collateral from their existing lenders.

theoretically, twitter should not be a highly leveraged company, since theoretically if you're buying it for $44b it should be worth $44b. but, uh, lol. twitter's actual value is $13b or less because it can't actually support that level of debt without crashing and burning, and is as a result hilariously overleveraged.

On top of that, we're talking about something that has never managed the kind of profitability to handle Musk's required payments, and could only reach it through actions that pump the short-term up at the cost of all the rest of the term.

Musk is probably going to do whatever desperate stopgap measures he can throw at the crisis to have enough blood tomorrow, but in a way which functionally guarantees that it doesn't sustain long past that. Moderation quality implosions, spam containment collapses, an "invitation to reopen discourse" ends up filling the whole environment with terrible slurs and harassments, more and more invasive advertising to shore up revenue gaps resulting in posters slowly dropping off from mental frustration at the ad quantity, terrible new "buy a checkmark" ideas imploding and removing whatever semblance of poster qualification twitter even had, etc

A competent businessperson would have trouble coming up with ideas to keep the whole thing going. Musk is not competent in this affair at all.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Sir Lemming posted:

This is indistinguishable from a Trump tweet.

Totally unfair!

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Elon really wants to be this cool guy who rolls with the punches.

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Main Paineframe posted:

The new owner of Twitter is dispensing voting advice now.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1589639376186724354

Not really unexpected, but still funny as hell. Frankly, I'm surprised he didn't just spout a Qanon screed instead, given his recent activities.

later on under a republican president: "given that true change comes by coordination across chambers, i recommend voting for republican candidate, as the president is republican"

Kavros
May 18, 2011

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Madkal posted:

My extremely ignorant, naïve take is that if you want politicians to actually do something and bring in gun control you just need an effective lobby that can bribe politicians one dollar more than the IRA can. As far as I can tell no politician actually gives a flying gently caress about guns, just that they know that it gets them votes and cash. So by being a pro-gun group who will bribe politicians (or "donate") you get rid of one of those problems, and who are actual gun nuts going to vote for if not the R anyway.

the general problem with that is that there's big money in "guns" and not big money in "no guns"

this is the same reason why privatized for-profit insurance lobbying wins in the competition to bribe politicians versus healthcare reforms: there's trillions of dollars to be made in letting people die of institutionalized medical neglect for the sake of profit, and mere millions can be divested to politicians with substantial payouts for the investment

/

Jaxyon posted:

A better example of a gish gallop is the post in the Union thread in CSPAM where the guy went through like 5 different anti-labor canards in 2 paragraphs and then got chain probated 15 times.

gish probated

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Kavros
May 18, 2011

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What were the biggest warning signs with musk BEFORE the whole pedo diver accusation? There were many but which ones were the most pertinent to the creature we now have on display?

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