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Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Morrow posted:

Congratulations Governor Hobbs (D) of Arizona!

Yeah, probably not. Hobbs has been doing everything possible to avoid actively campaigning it seems; she refused a debate, and also has minimum media presence so far here.

Honestly, compared to 2018 and 2020, I've seen far more pro-GOP signs/billboards/etc., then Democratic-supporting publicity. It honestly seems like the AZ Dem party thinks that they'll cruise to victory solely because the AZ GOP nominated a bunch of far right, crazy Trump'ers, and that they don't have to put much work into the mid-terms.

If the election were held today, I'm pretty confidence Kari Lake would win.

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Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

First new poll out of Arizona by a major pollster shows that Sinema is incredibly unpopular, but the Senate race is still a toss-up whether she runs or not.

Two asterisks:

1) They only polled Ruben Gallego as the possible Dem nominee. There are other people who have expressed interest too, but Gallego seems like the likeliest candidate.

2) They polled Kari Lake as the Republican candidate, but it might be Mark Lamb, who is the Pinal County Sheriff, or Former Governor Doug Ducey.

Favorability:

In a 3-way race:

In a 2-way race:

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1605923428770406401

Things could change, but Ducey clearly said recently that he doesn't plan to run for Senate in 2024, and the fact he's been consistent on his messaging about not running for Senate, seems like it's probably true.

And there's been a big recent push locally for Greg Stanton to go up against Gallego in the Dem primary; I could see the AZ Democratic Party supporting Stanton over Gallego.

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