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Small White Dragon posted:What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left. It is, just not located in Russia for what should be obvious reasons. A lot has moved to the Baltics/Poland/Germany etc.
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Oct 12, 2022 04:39
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Another dawn is breaking in Kyiv, and it's still Ukrainian.   
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Oct 12, 2022 05:15
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Small White Dragon posted:What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left. The state controls all broadcast television and just about all print media. Independent media exists, but it is not very relevant for reaching out to the masses, especially the older generations who prefer TV. And even the last of the Mohicans have largely fled the country for their safety. That said, many of them still do valuable journalistic work in very challenging conditions.
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Oct 12, 2022 05:56
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cinci zoo sniper posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1579883965879848960 So is it normal to have a guy in high command have two prison stints? I guess it's stuff early in his career but it just seems so weird to have a a culture that glamorizes criminals. Also really weird to have an infantry/tank guy get put in charge of the airforce for some reason? But following the NY times article citations on the guy: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/08/world/europe/russia-ukraine-general-sergei-surovikin.html Led me to this interesting report on Russian war readiness from 2019: https://jamestown.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Russias-Military-Strategy-and-Doctrine-web-1.pdf Some fun quotes of how badly the Russians were prepared even back then in Chapter 11 that are no surprise considering the situation we see today: quote:Defense ministry statements suggested that the reservists called up to take part in the June 2016 snap exercises were incorporated into pre-existing brigades and battalions. This contradicts years of statements by military officials insisting that all Russian units are fully manned at all times. As such, this means that a functioning system of reserves in the Armed Forces did not exist. quote:Now defense ministry leaders insist they need 16,000 new graduates each year. In contrast, the number of Russian troops has not doubled. Therefore, the only explanation for this sudden need to recruit twice as many officers is the excess number of lieutenants required to fill out the Russian military’s new skeleton units. In fact, the staff of these divisions consists mostly of officers. These types of divisions are appropriate if one’s goal is to report to the president about the increasing power of the Russian army. To establish such new “paper” divisions, one needs only several thousand officers, not hundreds of thousands of additional privates. quote:If Putin is not bluffing, these statements show that he and his military advisers are ignoring reality. The domestic defense industry arguably cannot cope with the tasks set by the Kremlin due to evident difficulties with the mass production of weapons. I always do enjoy some of these more historical reports and seeing how they compare/contrast against the present. Apologies if I'm just regurgitating well known things.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:07
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WarpedLichen posted:So is it normal to have a guy in high command have two prison stints? I guess it's stuff early in his career but it just seems so weird to have a a culture that glamorizes criminals. Is it a modern western thing where having been to prison once often ruins your life forever? Reading history about famous people. Back in ye olden days, it seems that everyone did a tour in prison at one point or another and no one cared.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:15
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Feliday Melody posted:Is it a modern western thing where having been to prison once often ruins your life forever? I guess its one thing to me if you got put in prison for protesting and then become a famous politician and its another when you're put in prison for illegal arms trade and then continue getting promoted up the ranks in the army. But maybe the judicial process is different enough and this is just a lockup before the trial that never happened.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:33
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Feliday Melody posted:Is it a modern western thing where having been to prison once often ruins your life forever? Well, we aren't talking about being a middle manager or an average professional. Serving time in prison is going to be utterly disqualifying for serving as an army general in most modern western militaries. Its not like there's a shortage of qualified candidates for those very limited opportunities, and the best person for the job probably didn't spend time in jail.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:37
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WarpedLichen posted:So is it normal to have a guy in high command have two prison stints? I guess it's stuff early in his career but it just seems so weird to have a a culture that glamorizes criminals. if you foresee the possibility of some serious domestic unrest, a guy who ran protestors over with an apc is a good bet that he's going to follow/issue orders to start shooting demonstrators if need be.
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Oct 12, 2022 06:59
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Herstory Begins Now posted:if you foresee the possibility of some serious domestic unrest, a guy who ran protestors over with an apc is a good bet that he's going to follow/issue orders to start shooting demonstrators if need be. Normally I'd say puting a heavy handed brute in charge of dealing with public happenings would just galvanize opposition, but this is Russia, so lol
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Oct 12, 2022 07:16
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WarpedLichen posted:So is it normal to have a guy in high command have two prison stints? I guess it's stuff early in his career but it just seems so weird to have a a culture that glamorizes criminals. Well it's the vibe the whole russian military is giving. Wagner recruiting in prisons, the whole existance of VDV, especially their behaviour during the VDV Day, etc. However I think that it's his recent efforts in Syria that got him promoted to the top spot currently.
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Oct 12, 2022 07:18
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I was thinking about the brain-drain effect of mobilisation the other day. A russian aviation blogger I follow suddenly went silent after the mobilisation announcement and I was worried they'd got him. He went radio silent for almost a month after usually posting 2-3 times a week, then a few days ago posted a comment on one of his articles that he'd fled the country. He's an aircraft technician and repairs commercial jets for a living so a skilled job, I can only imagine skilled workers are fleeing across all sectors which is going to have all kinds of negative effects on their economy. 
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Oct 12, 2022 08:02
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Dante80 posted:Eight more months of this is not something to wish for. I don't think anyone but psychopaths really want to see more bloodshed in Ukraine, but if we're being realistic it's probably going to take at least another 8 months before Putin throws in the towel. That'd be after surviving the winter and the spring wet season and a potential May/June offensive. For me personally it's a strange feeling to cheer for the Ukrainians scoring hits on the Russian (back)lines, because every destroyed tank/train/depot is going to be a bunch of people who died. But the alternative is them terrorising and murdering civilian, so.... My maternal grandmother was a refugee from Ukraine/Crimea in the 40s, she left behind a sister and a mother she never heard from again. We don't think we have distant family there, but it's depressing to think what oppressive hell any potential relatives would have had to go through in the last 80 years, only to now face a form of fascism again. Also: veel Vlamingen hier, amai
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Oct 12, 2022 08:03
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kemikalkadet posted:I was thinking about the brain-drain effect of mobilisation the other day. A russian aviation blogger I follow suddenly went silent after the mobilisation announcement and I was worried they'd got him. He went radio silent for almost a month after usually posting 2-3 times a week, then a few days ago posted a comment on one of his articles that he'd fled the country. He's an aircraft technician and repairs commercial jets for a living so a skilled job, I can only imagine skilled workers are fleeing across all sectors which is going to have all kinds of negative effects on their economy. Skilled workers are likely to find permanent work in their new countries too so the chances of people fleeing mobilisation ever returning are somewhat slim. As much as I get the sentiment from some countries refusing to accept Russian refugees on the grounds they should make some effort to sort poo poo out at home, making it easy for them to flee someplace safe is easily the best way of causing both short and long term damage to the Russian economy. Inflicting long term harm will be important because there's a large number of Russian ultranationalists who would love to rearm and have another crack at Ukraine, and that's going to be much harder with an economy on the rocks.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:26
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I know Russia is supposed to have exemptions for skilled workers etc. But I doubt that the skilled workers trust the corrupt recruiters that run around kidnapping people.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:31
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a bunch of Bannerlord modders are Russian, plus the Starsector guy. Hopefully they all got out edit: Starsector guy actually moved to the US quite a while ago Flavahbeast fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 08:39
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I thought i saw Belarus announce that they are going to send in troops with russia. Are they opening a new front or being sent to the current frontlines?
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Oct 12, 2022 08:50
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Feliday Melody posted:I know Russia is supposed to have exemptions for skilled workers etc. But I doubt that the skilled workers trust the corrupt recruiters that run around kidnapping people. It seems to be that the mobilisation is done by the region/Oblast and some are basically doing what you are describing just to fill their quotas (which has led some to believe the numbers mobilised are much greater than 300,000). After that they are sent to processing by the military and from there those who are exempt/unable are sent back home.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:55
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ZombieCrew posted:I thought i saw Belarus announce that they are going to send in troops with russia. Are they opening a new front or being sent to the current frontlines? You can't trust anything that comes from Lukashenka. It can be anything, like using Belarussian infrastructure to house and train mobilized, or absolutely nothing. Or he can provide some select units and equipment in exchange for debt forgiveness. Most people that are familiar with Belarus point out that it's way riskier for Batka to send the troops on large scale into fight since he doesn't have either the same grasp at propaganda Putin does, and there's non-zero risk the units might switch sides.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:56
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ZombieCrew posted:I thought i saw Belarus announce that they are going to send in troops with russia. Are they opening a new front or being sent to the current frontlines? TBH it's not clear if Lukashenka is even sending troops to participate in the war. Lukashenka's statements have been vague on what he actually ment. Some of them sounds like he is just moving around troops near Belarus' borders. The Guardian have just published a decent article about this. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/12/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-russia-ukraine-war-putin
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Oct 12, 2022 09:06
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I might be repeating something that was already said but re: the gas situation in Europe, hs.fi reported two facts that I thought brought some perspective: - While gas storage is at 90% of capacity, more than usual at this time of year, stored gas can only cover maybe as little as one third of gas used during the winter months. Previously, most use was covered by gas delivered from the pipelines and only a minor part from storage. - Most of that 90% is still gas that was received from Russia via pipes. Now, assuming the pipelines stay shut, 2023 looks very problematic; with ship-delivered lng, getting to good levels of stored gas one year from now could be very difficult. Furthermore, while terminals for receiving lng are being built in Europe, there's not enough spare capacity in lng shipping terminals. If projects started now, it would not help capacity for 2023 or probably even 2024. All in all, a lot hinges on if the winter will be mild, normal or unusually cold.
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Oct 12, 2022 09:28
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aniviron posted:But for example if (hopefully when) the Ukrainian Army liberates Kherson, is it reasonable to expect much of the territory between there and Melitopol to also be liberated, at least up til a natural barrier like a river? aniviron posted:
I think it will happen again. The issue is low morale and lack of good defensive terrain. When your line gets penetrated, you get the gently caress out because no-one feels safe or is interested in fighting to the death. Might not happen again soon, though, because I think the autumn rains have already started in most of the country and hellmud season is about to be back. Then the next real opportunity for offensives is in the north when the ground freezes in winter, and in the south when the ground dries in summer.
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Oct 12, 2022 09:31
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spankmeister posted:Imo interestingly in German it's often still "Die Ukraine". Get with the times, Germany! Often? Always! I've never seen anyone just call it "Ukraine" in German, it's always "die Ukraine" everywhere. It also has the same connotation that "The Ukraine" has in English: Not a real country, just some kind of territory.
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Oct 12, 2022 10:16
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Russia have released x-ray images of the truck that carried the bomb on the Kerch bridge, except it's a picture of a completely different truck. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1580088362991759360 Unrelated, a DPR representative makes it clear that Russia is planning a genocide. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579820810751324160
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Oct 12, 2022 10:25
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Often? Always! I've never seen anyone just call it "Ukraine" in German, it's always "die Ukraine" everywhere. It also has the same connotation that "The Ukraine" has in English: Not a real country, just some kind of territory. Doesn't German place an artikel infront of many countries names?
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Oct 12, 2022 10:29
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Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:Often? Always! I've never seen anyone just call it "Ukraine" in German, it's always "die Ukraine" everywhere. It also has the same connotation that "The Ukraine" has in English: Not a real country, just some kind of territory. Like die Schweiz, right? Absolutely not a real country, and we're just waiting for somebody to lay an actual claim to it Jokes aside, I googled this briefly yesterday and I don't think you can so easily equate it to the social connotations that the term has in English https://german.stackexchange.com/questions/10907/why-do-some-but-not-all-countries-have-articles/10909?noredirect=1#comment27592_10909
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Oct 12, 2022 10:29
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kemikalkadet posted:I was thinking about the brain-drain effect of mobilisation the other day. A russian aviation blogger I follow suddenly went silent after the mobilisation announcement and I was worried they'd got him. He went radio silent for almost a month after usually posting 2-3 times a week, then a few days ago posted a comment on one of his articles that he'd fled the country. He's an aircraft technician and repairs commercial jets for a living so a skilled job, I can only imagine skilled workers are fleeing across all sectors which is going to have all kinds of negative effects on their economy. Unfortunately the numbers are too small to make a dent in economy at the moment. It would require a significant collapse and complete open borders to trigger anything like the Venezuela brain drain - which, incidentally, might align with the course of the regime anyway, to be left only with oil and gas industry personnel, security for it and some dead weight, after which the assets may be safely sold and the founders cash out.
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Oct 12, 2022 10:49
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d64 posted:I might be repeating something that was already said but re: the gas situation in Europe, hs.fi reported two facts that I thought brought some perspective: The Economist has had a bunch of pretty good articles about this lately ( https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/10/11/the-countries-most-at-risk-from-europes-energy-crunch ; paywall but you can stop while loading and you get around the paywall, like NYT). Here's a couple maps of it, for this winter: The legend is missing; left panel is "direct exposure to gas shortages" and the right panel is "indirect exposure". Color code is presumably obvious; darker red color is more affected.  Looks like Denmark and Luxembourg won't care much, but everyone else seems to be affected. Also I guess Norway is unaffected/actually benefits, but since they're not EU they're not in whatever dataset The Economist is using. The article does, like you mentioned, say that gas is not likely to return to normal until winter 2024. I've seen other articles projecting for winter 2023 saying it is likely to be worse than this one in terms of energy supply (e.g. https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/09/29/europes-next-energy-crunch ). I was surprised that the Baltics were not more directly affected. I thought they were getting like the vast majority of their gas from Russia? E: Also NL is surprising, since they produce a lot of gas and didn't import much from Russia, so I'm not really sure on how The Economist is calculating these metrics. Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:16 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 11:10
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Saladman posted:Also I guess Norway is unaffected/actually benefits Norway is 99% renewable energy with the other 1ish% burning wood. Benefits from having a shitload of coastline for hydroelectric and wind. It's why they make bank selling oil and gas to other countries without using a drop for themselves.
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Oct 12, 2022 11:14
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Mr. Apollo posted:I think he's being very deliberate with his words so he can claim later that he never lied or misled anyone. He didn't meet with Putin, he spoke with him. Or he never spoke with Putin, he spoke with his representative etc. It would be easy to issue a blanket denial but he didn't do that. On the exact same lies, this clinches it imo: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1579946607151546368?s=20&t=Zy7zcvctSzUDbOgXVGOdeg Atreiden posted:Unrelated, a DPR representative makes it clear that Russia is planning a genocide. Stating your willingness to exterminate millions of people and calling Zelensky "Hitler 2.0" in the same breath without even a flicker of self-awareness is really something.
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Oct 12, 2022 11:20
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PerilPastry posted:Stating your willingness to exterminate millions of people and calling Zelensky "Hitler 2.0" in the same breath without even a flicker of self-awareness is really something. Honestly when I read the numbers he gave my first thought was "well at least he didn't say six million." Incredible ghoulishness given how many Ukrainians and Russians were slaughtered in WW2. Seriously, the numbers/percentages are insane.
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Oct 12, 2022 11:24
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Tesseraction posted:Norway is 99% renewable energy with the other 1ish% burning wood. Benefits from having a shitload of coastline for hydroelectric and wind. It's why they make bank selling oil and gas to other countries without using a drop for themselves. About a quarter of Norway's energy consumption is oil and gas, with an insignificant amount of coal on top. The rest is hydro with an insignificant amount of wind. Norway does produce significantly more fossil fuels than it uses, though.
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Oct 12, 2022 11:34
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boofhead posted:Like die Schweiz, right? Absolutely not a real country, and we're just waiting for somebody to lay an actual claim to it Pffft... See below. I'd say it's covered by countries that are federal republics getting an article in German. boofhead posted:Jokes aside, I googled this briefly yesterday and I don't think you can so easily equate it to the social connotations that the term has in English The quoted explanation is pretty good. They're listing Ukraine as an unclear case that doesn't fit any of the other explanations why a country would have an article. In light of the transition of the Czech Republic being called "Die Tschechei" originally and then being changed to "Tschechien" because it used to not be seen as a real country by Germany, I see a parallel with "die Ukraine", particularly considering the pervasive pro-Russian attitudes there before February of this year. That being said, I don't think there'd be a major resistance now if a move to just "Ukraine" would be widely promoted over there.
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Oct 12, 2022 11:36
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Dick Ripple posted:Doesn't German place an artikel infront of many countries names? Edit: ^^^ [snip] The explanation above is better. It looks like there are only four countries that have unclear non-rule-based reasons for their article in German: Iraq, Yemen, Ukraine, and Kosovo. So Ukraine's not alone, but in a small batch. I don't know why they mention Sudan and Lebanon in their list for "still unclear", both of those have obvious known geographical and historical uses for the article, and both were referred to as "the Sudan" and "the Lebanon" in English until quite recent times. Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:48 on Oct 12, 2022 |
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Oct 12, 2022 11:38
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Just to centre the ideological drive of the Russian invasion, remember that the Ukranian homonazis want to force all Russians to attend pride parades at gunpoint https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580125305200840704
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Oct 12, 2022 11:52
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100% there are also gay men in that group.
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Oct 12, 2022 12:01
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WaltherFeng posted:100% there are also gay men in that group. Impossible https://mobile.twitter.com/thetimes/status/887009020502052864
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Oct 12, 2022 12:07
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Saladman posted:
The Baltics, which have been telling Europeans for years that Russia uses energy as a weapon, used the last decade to build alternatives, an LNG terminal in Lithuania, the shale industry in Estonia and a gas connector LT-PL
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Oct 12, 2022 12:30
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I like the idea he personally went door to door asking. Sadly the reality is he probably just murdered anyone who got 'caught.'
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Oct 12, 2022 12:39
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Saladman posted:I was surprised that the Baltics were not more directly affected. I thought they were getting like the vast majority of their gas from Russia? E: Also NL is surprising, since they produce a lot of gas and didn't import much from Russia, so I'm not really sure on how The Economist is calculating these metrics. Lithuania has already built and opened for business an LNG terminal that has enough capacity to supply 100% of the gas consumption of the Baltics in “real time”, although we need extra capacity to be able to float Finland as well, if necessary. Latvia, Estonia, and Finland all have their own LNG terminal construction project going on, I believe. Well, the Latvian is definitely there, if behind schedule as every other public work here. Furthermore, Lithuania did finish building and has opened for business a gas pipeline to Poland.
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Oct 12, 2022 12:39
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Tesseraction posted:I like the idea he personally went door to door asking. Those believed to be gay by Chechnya police are frequently tortured: https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/05/08/russia-new-anti-gay-crackdown-chechnya
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