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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Plastic_Gargoyle posted:

The others I get, but what bug has Nicaragua got up its rear end lately to think siding with the crazy people is a good idea?
The current president, elected in 2006, has been sending the democratic index in the wrong direction. There's been recent sham elections (Nicaragua and the EU have just expelled each other's ambassador non- grata) so voting in favour of Russia's sham elections is exactly his bag.

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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The problem is it ignores that Russia is an entirely bad faith actor when it comes to negotiations and honouring their commitments arise from said negotations, while providing something Russia can use in bad faith to waive around and say "Why won't the west negotiate?".

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Gravitas Shortfall posted:

It honestly surprises me how much the UK is supporting Ukraine, given how thoroughly corrupt and rife with Russian money the Tories are.
Don't underestimate how much the success of WW1,WW2 and the Falklands have become foundations of our national identity combined with a need to pretend our post-empire significance hasn't declined. War lets us be all jingoistic while ignoring the complete mismanagement of our country.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
That's around $100k per vehicle which is quite a bit more than the usual price I be think I've seen for surplus fv103s. Google turns up old listings for 30k. Could be because they're high quality examples combination with buy large numbers for war (rather than somebody buying one as a novelty hobby and driving it to the supermarket)

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

Are those demilitarized examples? Pretty different market if so.
The 50 bring bought already in private hands so I assume all examples have been through the same process prior to going through the surplus auction/sale. We (thankfully) have pretty strict gun laws so there generally aren't going to be any still with machine guns and such. Unless were always earmarked for resale to foreign militaries.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The Ukrainians seem pretty adept at cobbliing stuff together. The cost is almost certainly because they're low milage, high quality examples.

Anyone want to chip in for a Herc?
https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/defence-equipment-sales-authority

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
It's like Dunkirk but with idiots.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
A few days ago the Royal United Services Institute (a UK defence and security think tank) published an in-depth look at the air-war so far. I've not had a chance to read it properly yet, and frankly I'm qualified to critique it...
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence/

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
It's also more or less the maximum possible distance away they could move it.

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1591295578352361474/photo/1

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Saladman posted:

The most surprising image from the article was, for me, this one:


Caption: "Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month in St. Petersburg, Russia. PHOTO: PAVEL BEDNYAKOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS"

What happened to all of Putin's long tables?
He has more trust in random foreigners not assassinating him than any given Russian.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
So based on this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbdxY-yCYE0
It seems Ukraine is still receiving Brimstone missiles, and possibly the improved dual-mode Brimstone 2 variant. I'd kind of assumed it a short term experiment at the start of the war when the UK was scrambling to deliver what it could. As good as weapons as they are, the UK's stockpile isn't particular huge, they're expensive per unit (the internet says $1/4m), and firing them out of a jerry-rigged civilian truck doesn't seem like a good long term integration in to the battlefield. All in all, it feels like their contribution would be lost in the noise of all the other weapons being delivered.

When the dust settles, it'll be interesting to find out how they were use and how effective they were. Perhaps the lack of sightings of them is a sign the use was paused, while the work was done to make it possible to air launch them? They'd never be as tightly integrated as it is with the Eurofighter, but we've seen the Ukrainians getting HARM missiles working on their jets. Or perhaps they're not being used offensively on the front line but defensively to protect against marine threats (the original assumption of how they were going to be used, before the footage of the truck launches appeared).

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Just come across this talk from some of those involved in the Operation Interflex training in the UK.

https://twitter.com/RUSI_org/status/1600490313876840448

Vimeo if you don't want the video compressed to poo poo.
https://vimeo.com/777316675

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Rinkles posted:

Is a tank without treads formally a tank?
The t in tank clearly stands for tread, making the AMX-10 RC a wank instead....

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Libluini posted:

What does the n and k stand for?
Tracked Armoured Nasty Kar.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
We should settle once and for all which are the best tanks by giving Ukraine 5 Abrams, 5 Challenger 2s, 5 Leopard 2s and 5 Leclercs (and whatever anyone else has) and see what's left standing last / has most kills.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The plan is to convert just 148 of the Challenger 2s to 3s, retiring the rest. Combined with reductions in the AFVs at the same time. Time will tell if the lessons of this war will change the plan.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Confirmed as 14 Challengers and ~30 AS-90 self propelled artillery.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Wasn't there s Russian attack on a barrack early on that killed a couple of hundred trainee troops? I assume they've adjusted in response.

Fake edit: 87. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/ukraine-says-87-killed-in-strike-on-barracks-in-worst-military-loss-of-war-1.4885787

The target is 15-20k trained in the UK this year under Operation Interflex.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I wonder what armour will be on the Challengers we hand over? I assume we don't want the Russians getting hold of whatever the latest version of chobham is, but I don't know how replaceable it is. I believe only one has been lost, to friendly fire.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The UK is going to ship another 600 Brimstone 2 missiles to Ukraine. I wonder how much of this is "it's what we've got' and how much is success based demand. They're great kit but being fired out the side of a civilian soft sided truck isn't their designed setup....

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Obviously we don't have the full details of what's being achieved, but the assumption is that they will have to use them in their auto target acquisition mode and with considerably less range when ground launched.

When they've been used by the RAF, they're coupled with the plane for much more operator control over what they target. I'm assuming that in Libya/Iraq/Afghanistan/etc the RAF have always known exactly what they want to got with each firing. Wheras I assume this is a sign their automatic target selection is working well in realworld combat (and not hitting junk too often. Can it tell an active tank from a burnt out shell?)

Edit: ultimately it seems to be good news for Poland who were the first to finally buy in to them as surface-to-surface weapons
https://www.army-technology.com/analysis/fire-and-brimstone-polands-new-tank-destroyer/

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jan 19, 2023

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
How long until the building collapses, either under an inappropriate load placed on the roof or Putin false flags it?

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Unsaid publicly: 5) they're expensive, nobody seems to ever have nearly as many in working order as their headline numbers, and procurement of more will probably get hosed up leaving the donor country short and/or poor.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 12:23 on Jan 20, 2023

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
It would probably be less of a headache for the Netherlands to get new f-16s if they gave some to Ukraine than it would be to get replacement Leopards.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Antigravitas posted:

The Netherlands doesn't have any Leopards. They were all sold, and their tank crews rolled into the German/Dutch Panzerbataillon 414.
To quote myself, "nobody seems to ever have nearly as many in working order as their headline numbers" (I checked the Wikipedia page on Dutch military equipment but didn't read the bit about them being leased and part of a joint force).

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1600108768838098944

Gepards good but held back by Swiss ammo issues.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The Uk are sending 14 Challengers, so is guess that's the absolute floor.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I believe Ukraine are assembling battalions specifically to operate NATO rather than dispersing it, although I now can't find it. I assume they'd want to put their best in to them, while new troops gain their first experience with older equipment.

Edit: there might be a '47th assault brigade', a new volunteer only brigade getting a lot of the new toys. But there's not a lot of mention them outside twitter or one author on Forbes, so apply appropriate salt.

Pablo Bluth fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Jan 24, 2023

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
How many tractors to pull an M1?

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I kinda feel like rather than going through with the C3 upgrade program, we should bite the bullet and give all the C2s to Ukraine, in return for operating updated M1s for ~15 years. Either make the C3 a totally new design or join the Main Ground Combat System program.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
It might also be coming up with a specific variant that up to the required spec but without any of the absolute top stuff they don't want falling in to the hands of Russia.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Orthanc6 posted:

2) some complicated and obscure internal political reason that just makes it easier to procure the Abrams this way
They can't provide an M1 that is inferior to Challenger/Leopard/Leclerc but someone in the DoD has gone down off the list and ticket off all the tech Ukraine can't have.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Looks like there's a timescale for C2s

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1618631759477997568

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Sounds like they might be getting an M1A2 variant.

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1618651014202273792

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
They've been pretty clear that they're going to be new built tanks. I'm going to make the bold prediction they're be known as M1A2-U variant, with some unique combo of capabilities (just as Saudi get M1A2S and Kuwait get M12A-K, and M12A-T was pitched to Taiwan ).

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I did see a tweet earlier that reference some Ukrainian military person saying the Russians were learning from some of their mistakes, and there were less weapon stockpiles to HIMARS. Longer range weapons please.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Confirmation that the UA at officer level have been getting tactical training for a while.

https://inews.co.uk/news/ukrainian-officers-tactical-tank-training-uk-british-army-commander-2110940

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Oryx documented another four M777 155mm howitzers taken out of action; taking the documented numbers to 30 destroyed and 6 damaged, out of ~150 donated. Periodically video from Lancent loitering munitions targetting them is showing up on twitter. Ukraine has praised the M777 so I wonder if they've become the primary goal for lancet operators? (HIMARS excepted) It's got to be concerning at this point. Even the US only have so many to donate and they aren't currently manufactured. Despite being donated in similar numbers, there's only been a single L118/M101 documented as lost, and that was from a failure.

I wonder how the anti-UAV problem will be solved. NATO tech over the last few decades has definitely tended towards Wunderwaffes in small numbers. but this problem definitely needs something that is going to be affordable enough to produce and maintain is large quantities.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
I wonder if the M777 falls in to an unfortunate hole; big enough calibre that it's a prize target but also big enough that it's way too slow to relocate. The self-propelled stuff avoids this by it's mobile nature, and L118/M118 by being small enough that it's practical to relocate frequently. So M777 being the the most practical high value target lancet gets to target frequently.

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Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
The M777 isn't built at the moment, although apprently BAE have had some interest.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/10/12/bae-m777-production-ukraine/

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