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Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Can second Perun for weekly good long videos mainly about the war in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
for shorter videos Anders Puck Nielsen's, a Danish Military analyst, channel is really good.
https://www.youtube.com/c/AndersPuckNielsen

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Atreiden
May 4, 2008

ZombieCrew posted:

I thought i saw Belarus announce that they are going to send in troops with russia. Are they opening a new front or being sent to the current frontlines?

TBH it's not clear if Lukashenka is even sending troops to participate in the war. Lukashenka's statements have been vague on what he actually ment. Some of them sounds like he is just moving around troops near Belarus' borders.
The Guardian have just published a decent article about this.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/12/alexander-lukashenko-belarus-russia-ukraine-war-putin

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Russia have released x-ray images of the truck that carried the bomb on the Kerch bridge, except it's a picture of a completely different truck.
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1580088362991759360

Unrelated, a DPR representative makes it clear that Russia is planning a genocide.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1579820810751324160

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Tomn posted:

Honestly, it wouldn't really surprise me if both the original inspection video and the x-ray were random bullshit pulled from somewhere to make it look like Russia is on top of things and will totally catch the saboteurs, yes sir. I dunno if either of them are worth analyzing given the uncertainty of whether they actually have anything to do with the explosion to begin with.

They've totally already caught them. The explanation makes zero sense. Apparently Ukraine was able to sail tons of explosives from Odesa to Russia.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1580124884742836225
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/1...ea-bridge-blast
Quoting the whole thing since it's not in article but on NYT's constant update line.

quote:

KYIV, Ukraine — Russia’s domestic intelligence service announced the arrest of eight people on Wednesday in connection with the weekend bombing of the bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula. Five are citizens of Russia, according to the agency, the F.S.B., and the others are Ukrainian and Armenian. President Vladimir V. Putin has blamed Ukraine for the blast, which he called a “terrorist attack,” and retaliated with a barrage of missile strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine this week, killing more than 20 people.

In a statement, the F.S.B. offered Russia’s first detailed version of how it contends the blast took place. It said that the bomb had contained 22 tons of explosives that were shipped out of a port in Odesa, in southern Ukraine, in August. The explosives made their way to southern Russia, where they were loaded onto a truck that was driven onto the bridge and detonated, it said.

The details could not be independently confirmed. Russia maintains an effective blockade on the ports of Odesa, permitting only grain ships, inspected by international monitors, to leave under a deal brokered this summer by the United Nations.

The F.S.B., as Russia’s premier domestic intelligence service, has primary responsibility for security on the bridge. The bombing represented a profound lapse in the agency’s oversight, even as Ukrainian officials telegraphed for months their intentions to strike the structure.

The F.S.B said Ukraine’s military intelligence service, the G.U.R., had masterminded the blast, saying that the agency’s commander, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, bore personal responsibility. A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of a government prohibition against discussing the episode, confirmed that Ukraine’s intelligence services had carried it out, and other senior officials have not denied Ukraine’s role.

But Ukraine’s government has not officially claimed responsibility for the explosion, and a spokesman for the G.U.R. dismissed the Russian assertions as “nonsense.”

The F.S.B. and Russia’s main investigative committee “are fake structures serving the Putin regime, and so we will certainly not be commenting on their latest statement,” said Andrei Yusov, the G.U.R. spokesman.

The Crimea explosion, just after 6 a.m. on Saturday, was both a strategic and symbolic attack. The bridge is the sole link between Russia and Crimea, and a symbol for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia of one of his greatest triumphs as leader: the illegal annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. The force of the blast sent a large chunk of the bridge tumbling into the sea and set fire to a train pulling fuel that was passing on a parallel railroad bridge.

The bridge is also the primary supply route for fuel and heavy equipment for Russia’s troops fighting in southern Ukraine. Any disruption to the structure would hinder Russian forces’ ability to fight at a time when Ukraine’s military is pushing deeper into territory taken by Russia at the start of the war.

The F.S.B.’s claims regarding the bomb’s size strain credulity, given the history of improvised explosive devices used in recent armed conflicts. During the American occupation of Iraq, the largest improvised bombs commonly made by insurgents were those placed in dump trucks, carrying approximately five tons of homemade explosives.

The most powerful non-nuclear air-dropped bomb used by the United States military — the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast, or MOAB — contains the equivalent power of just over nine tons of TNT. At 30 feet long and more than three feet in diameter, a MOAB can only be dropped from military cargo planes. The Pentagon has disclosed only a single use of the MOAB by U.S. forces in combat, during a 2017 attack on a suspected insurgent cave complex in Afghanistan.

Twenty-two tons is more than double the maximum capacity of most dump trucks. It appeared that Russia’s intelligence services were offering an estimate based on the loading limits for standardized 20-foot or 40-foot shipping containers, which are usually carried by tractor-trailers. In videos captured at the time of the blast, the truck that was detonated on the Kerch Strait Bridge did not appear to be carrying such a shipping container.

The F.S.B identified the driver of the truck as Makhir Yusubov, born in 1971. The senior Ukrainian official said it was likely that the truck’s driver had died in the blast, though it was not clear whether he was aware that the truck was carrying a bomb.

Shortly after the explosion, a man claiming to be Mr. Yusubov’s nephew gave an interview to a Russian news outlet claiming to be the owner of the truck, but denying that he had any knowledge about a plot to blow up the bridge.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008


While I would caution a bit against Meduza when they only have Russian sources, but they do here compare it what the Pentagon said 8th August reported by CNN and what the British defense minister have said. Both the numbers below was before the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv. I assume they come from their respective intelligence services. So I wouldn't dismiss it.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-08-22/h_6ef3b02018b57397597a3d79e77d47f3

quote:

“I think it’s safe to suggest that the Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in the less than six months. Now that is a combination of killed in action and wounded in action, that number might be a little lower, little higher, but I think that’s kind of in the ballpark,” Kahl said.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/vladimir-putin-ukraine-war-invasion-russia-latest-news-b1023274.html

quote:

Updating MPs on the conflict, Mr Wallace said: “Russia continues to lose significant equipment and personnel.
“It is estimated to date that over 25,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives, and in all if you include killed casualties, captured, or the now reported tens of thousands of deserters over 80,000 dead or injured and the other categories.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1580497639266975745

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1589300375583981569

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

A little update from Girkin, he is his usual positive self.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1619987711934496768

Also thanks Cinci for your service, you kept this thread good. Sad to see you go.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Saladman posted:

Did you actually read the link in your post? It doesn't say the Nazis were trying to raise Polish children to be good Aryans. Like here:

"These racial exams determined the fate of children: whether they would be killed, or sent to concentration camps, or experience other consequences."

Yeah, I don't think the Russians are putting children in murder camps or in prison camps. Things can be bad without them being literally the worst thing humanity has ever done in an organized fashion.

You should really do that yourself. like the article specifically goes into the details of Germans kidnapping children to Germanize them, just like Russia is doing now.
And you can read more about it here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnapping_of_children_by_Nazi_Germany

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Ynglaur posted:

Bolding is mine. NATO is not Europe. Europe is part of NATO. As a thought experiment, let's remove the US from NATO (as, for example, Donald Trump threatened to do). Could that version of NATO (even with Canada), defend its members adequately? I think the evidence available to us today is that it cannot.

wtf are you talking about, yea it could. The combined arms of Europe is only surpassed by the U.S.

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Athas posted:

Do you have a source or some details on this? It doesn't make sense to me. Almost 0% of the Russian Navy and a fairly small amount of the Russian Airforce is in Ukraine at this point, and surely those make up more than 3% of their total military. Also, what does "in" mean? Physically present (unlikely), or involved in the invasion on at least an organisational level? I can perhaps believe that 97% of the Russian ground forces are in some way involved, although obviously not by being concurrently physically present - maybe simply as reserves, or by transferring materiel.

I think the poster is misremembering this resent statement from British defense secretary Ben Wallace:

"Russia's failing strategy: Speaking to the BBC before heading into the Nato talks, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said Russia had not been able to "punch through" Ukraine's defences, and that 97% of its army was estimated to be in Ukraine"
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-64634760

American officials set the estimated number somewhat lower

"Western officials estimate that the vast majority of Russia’s army is now fighting in Ukraine. Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, told the BBC on Wednesday that “97 percent of the Russian army” is in Ukraine. U.S. defense officials estimate that about 80 percent of Russia’s ground forces are dedicated to the war effort."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/world/europe/russia-ukraine-vuhledar-offensive.html

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Girkin is having another bad day.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1630175329422655489

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

Kraftwerk posted:

I’m just trying to understand what they’re doing in Bakhmut on a tactical level that is allowing them to inch their way forward. What is Russia doing that Ukraine is not doing to make these territorial gains? Is it a question of one side having better aim? Is it artillery? Are the Russians landing shells and hitting more troops than the Ukrainians are?

Or are they sending so many soldiers at a position that the Ukrainians don’t have the ammo or the people to kill them all fast enough that eventually one or two break through and take out a couple guys before dying and this repeats over and over until the position collapses?

If you got two hours to spare today's Perun video is about Russian PMC's with a focus on Wagner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXKUNc9yI2A

And he also did one on the fighting around Bakhmut that covers what you're asking in good detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fqHERDXVpk

Atreiden
May 4, 2008

cinci zoo sniper posted:

The Swiss president (if you're an American, this is complicated) has vocally opposed re-export of Swiss-made arms to Ukraine. Now, this doesn't really cancel the two initiatives reported from their parliament, but apparently they must also include a referendum in the end, so the tl;dr is to not wait on Switzerland, especially this year. https://www.ft.com/content/c6401565-f3d3-489a-b373-e7d5fee11488

quote:

“Swiss weapons must not be used in wars,” President Alain Berset — who is also the country’s interior minister — said in an interview(opens a new window) on Sunday

WTF would they be used for other than that, when we're talking things like air defense.

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Atreiden
May 4, 2008

When you could help the victim of a brutal invasion and genocide, but chooses not to, you're not neutral, you're on the side of the invader.

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