cinci zoo sniper posted:

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1579883965879848960

Much of this has been mentioned already in the thread, but the piece does tie it all into a cogent narrative.

quote:

Defense ministry statements suggested that the reservists called up to take part in the June 2016 snap exercises were incorporated into pre-existing brigades and battalions. This contradicts years of statements by military officials insisting that all Russian units are fully manned at all times. As such, this means that a functioning system of reserves in the Armed Forces did not exist.

quote:

Now defense ministry leaders insist they need 16,000 new graduates each year. In contrast, the number of Russian troops has not doubled. Therefore, the only explanation for this sudden need to recruit twice as many officers is the excess number of lieutenants required to fill out the Russian military’s new skeleton units. In fact, the staff of these divisions consists mostly of officers. These types of divisions are appropriate if one’s goal is to report to the president about the increasing power of the Russian army. To establish such new “paper” divisions, one needs only several thousand officers, not hundreds of thousands of additional privates.

quote:

If Putin is not bluffing, these statements show that he and his military advisers are ignoring reality. The domestic defense industry arguably cannot cope with the tasks set by the Kremlin due to evident difficulties with the mass production of weapons.

Feliday Melody posted:

Is it a modern western thing where having been to prison once often ruins your life forever?

Reading history about famous people. Back in ye olden days, it seems that everyone did a tour in prison at one point or another and no one cared.

Ynglaur posted:

If India and China want to be seen as global leaders, they need to start having opinions on questions such as "should one country genocide another country".

Tuna-Fish posted:

There are some added costs of roaming to SpaceX (again, the system is highly directional, so it always needs to know exactly where you are), but certainly not ~$5k per month.

Ynglaur posted:

Yes, though it's not a paradigm shift. The US Army had Internet access at the battalion/squadron level in 2003. By late 2003 we had pushed it down to the company/troop/battery level in some places. And that was without mobile phone infrastructure. Bandwidth has certainly increased since then--as have the demands placed upon it with things such as real-time streaming video--but I doubt the US military was alone in pushing networks to front-line units in the past 20 years.

MechanicalTomPetty posted:

Didn’t lend-lease go into effect on October 1st?

Rigel posted:

They haven't been getting cash from the usa. Our aid has been weapons and munitions, and we can keep "lending" it if congress won't let us give it away.

SourKraut posted:

Mechanical equipment fails at times. Mechanical equipment with poor maintenance records are especially at risk of failure.

It really can be just that.

slurm posted:

With Iranians on the ground in Ukraine now, why shouldn't the US strike drone factories/military bases/critical infrastructure inside Iran? It seems like they have none of the defenses Russia would (which is basically just the threat of nukes) and a campaign to just basically destroy power/water/transportation, petroleum infrastructure, and dehouse defense workers could be conducted with impunity with none of the concerns of invasion or occupation.

Cicero posted:

It's not exactly clear why it's considered okay for Iran to have people in Russia or Ukraine directly helping with the war effort, but if the US does the same thing that's a huge escalation.

Really I just object in principle to the idea that doing the same thing being done to you is an "escalation", like if you get punched out of nowhere you gotta just sit there and take it because fighting back would be "escalating". I think the restriction on HIMARS being used to attack military targets in Russia is stupid for the same reason.

Cicero posted:

I mean every country puts intelligence officers everywhere even in peacetime. That's not the same thing at all.

As for official military helping with logistics within Ukraine, no I really doubt that's happening. So far they seem to be careful not to send any official military personnel into Ukraine itself.

Edit: I mean direct help, not, like, a military office in Kyiv helping to coordinate high level things.

GSV gently caress Your God posted:

I don't think public polling is indicative of a western breaking point. These representatives simply are the usual suspects (as you say).

MikeC posted:

I don't see what is wrong with the letter other than that it assumes Biden hasn't already tried from time to time to find some sort of negotiated solution. All it is really saying is that it would be better if the war ended sooner rather than later while reaffirming the stance that the US should never impose or pressure Ukraine into a settlement that they are not happy with. Is it redundant that what they are asking for is already being tried? Yes. But I don't see anything in the contents of the letter which would make it "stupid".

FishBulbia posted:

As opposed to saying "we will never negotiate"? That wouldn't get spinned?

mlmp08 posted:

What do you mean by this?

mlmp08 posted:

Congress members often speak or write without being directed to by the president.

Cicero posted:

In a lot of more left leaning discussions on the internet, the framing is that the US is pants on head idiotic policy-wise compared to (Western) Europe. While this is frequently accurate, it somewhat conflicts with the US going from strength to strength economically: if the US keeps picking poo poo policies, why is it doing so much better in terms of productivity?

And talking about natural resources doesn't make much sense especially in this context, California isn't really a petro or mining state, its economy is driven more by tech and media, often tech and media that is successful internationally.

Dick Ripple posted:

Like I said, there are obvious problems with these proposals.
But to answer your question directly said elections/referendums would have international backing and oversight, and would happen after Russia removes all their forces out of Ukraine as defined by the pre 2014 borders and in addition there here would be no stopping of military or other assistance to Ukraine. How likely would this to occcur? I would give it a non 0% chance, but not much greater than that long as Putin is in charge. It is mostly a thought experiment on what sort of ceasefire deals Russia could offer that would be supported by NATO/US and their populations but not Ukraine, and how this could cause reduced support for Ukraine.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Whoever decided to send that letter needs a talking to then.

Mr. Smile Face Hat posted:

I had posted a reply on this page to the post you’re quoting. It addresses the “easy mode”.

OddObserver posted:

It has an October date stamp, and was advertised online by Progressive Caucus yesterday. It's not something that was sent in June and just noticed now.

Athas posted:

I understand that Wagner is also a political player, but at this point in the war, is it really contributing anything useful in a military sense that the regular Russian forces couldn't do?

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Also I don't think it gets remarked on enough: this war is being used by Russian MoD as a way of getting rid of a ton of people that it either finds undesirable (prisoners) or potential rivals (Chechens, Wagner especially, PMCs in general). A lot of the accounts of how the least desirable troops are used describe stuff that is everything short of just machine gunning them yourself, eg 'assault this field with no artillery or air support, little ammo, and no there's no intel about where or how many enemy might be around.' What wagner is doing with the conscripted prisoners is particularly egregious in its brutality and lack of value in military terms.

Paladinus posted:

They say that democracy doesn't exist in other countries and it's basically voting stations made of straw all the way down, so Russia would be wise not even to pretend.

Crosby B. Alfred posted:

Russian Armed forces aren't large enough to even hold pre-2014 territory.
Even if Europe and America stopped supporting Ukraine it seems unlikely, he'd be able to win.

Pope Hilarius II posted:

(emphasis mine) This is also an ideology, though. Many people don't perceive it as such because it's presented as the 'neutral', base state of modern civilisations' decision-making.

Lance of Llanwyln posted:

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Also, the British did it.

quote:

Taking into account the terrorist act carried out by the Kyiv regime on October 29 this year with the participation of British specialists against ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels involved in ensuring the security of the grain corridor, the Russian side suspends participation in the implementation of agreements on the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.

KitConstantine posted:

They called the strike on Sevanstopol a terrorist attack
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1586355243284975618?t=UtItZuBnorV_EIJvdyO5mQ&s=19
So the delusion continues

Owling Howl posted:

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1585279195038588929?t=Q79j2ju2RxAUtQZtN58BSg&s=19

Possibly bullshit. At any rate I feel like you'd want a system which can chase the Iranian drones down which these seem unlikely to be able to do.

KitConstantine posted:

The phone conversation in the linked article happened in June, for reference

quote:

Concerns about fading support for Ukraine are also driving the current offensives, according to a defense official and a former official, as Ukraine tries to show momentum on the battlefield to encourage the flow of more weapons.

On Oct. 12, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin convened a meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels, a periodic gathering of allies, to discuss how to get more weapons and equipment into Ukrainian military hands. While past meetings have yielded assistance from ammunition to missile launchers, this month’s meeting took on new urgency, according to three defense officials familiar with the discussions.

Morrow posted:

They're burning through fifty years of stockpiling for the Third World War. That's why they seem to have immense equipment reserves to burn and an open question is at what point do they need to reach so far back in their stocks that quality declines sharply and they cease to be functional.

Paladinus posted:

Based on reporting in Russian media, they mostly go down South to Crimea, but also other 'neighbouring Russian regions'. From how previous 'evacuations' from occupied territories worked, a lot of people first went to a makeshift filtration camp somewhere deep in LDNR, then to some transfer camp in a relatively good shape for a photo op (there's one in Jankoy in Crimea), and from there they were spread across most Russian regions as far as Primorsky Krai in the far East. Neighbouring regions simply don't have the capacity to accommodate hundreds of thousands of people, so it's safe to assume the same is going to happen here.

Heliogabalos posted:

This and the volume of water in the Dniepr and the loss of the Aral Sea has had me wondering if this war is the first true war about fresh water. Among other things to be sure, but I suspect the Russians also want control of all of this water.