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notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
:ck5:

I have realized I knew next to nothing about this war if not for these helpful threads, and happy to be at least informed from smart sources about what's going on, even if these threads have some crazy activity sometimes (as war has lots of news obviously)

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notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Tuna-Fish posted:

The big difference between the expensive and the cheap subscription is that the cheap one requires a fixed service address which you have to tell SpaceX in advance, while the expensive lets you roam around freely.

There are some added costs of roaming to SpaceX (again, the system is highly directional, so it always needs to know exactly where you are), but certainly not ~$5k per month.

He was paid to deploy the basic service I would suspect but from the last Twitter link it sounds like he pocketed the loving money as a grifter as usual. If he didn't deploy them, ahhahaha he pulled an AT&T. To act like there's a significant cost difference is to be fraudulent on it's own when the cost difference is literally a software checkbox.

Musk is not full of good ideas, he's a Pete Thiel flunky who grifts all day. I could write endlessly on the amount of bad poo poo he's done to good and it's like 95:5 bad to good, he's as much a grifter as Trump.

Can we please move on and ignore the loud idiot in the room? Musk isn't honestly consequential to the war and he's not going broke on Twitter acquisition from SpaceX. He's just a narcissistic child who is stressed and distracting with stupid poo poo. It just derails the thread.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Rinkles posted:

“There is no longer any doubt where Israel should stand in this bloody conflict.” ??? What doubt was there?

Well, doesn't Israel have a lot of people doing Aaliyah (immigrating) from Russia to Israel to escape? Pretty much continually? Who then become Israeli citizens and thus influence Israeli opinion quite a bit?

Not saying it justifies such an odd statement either but I would assume it has some relevance.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Kharkiv counter-offensive battle group, the force most apparently likely to threaten those fortifications, worked seemingly like this:

1) artillery “softens up” the annoying part
2) a tank battalion (20-30 tanks) goes in at full speed through the weakest part, with a swarm of special forces technicals orbiting it in the role of recon/skirmishers
3) 5-15 battalions of mechanised infantry follow in their IFVs, widening the breach and isolating pockets of resistance/setting overwatch up on flank routes against the spearhead
4) a light infantry ball of TDF, national guard, police, border guard, etcetera follows in their APCs, Humvees, etcetera, combing through the territory and taking care of stragglers, partisans, and other liberation “accounting”

Well this is Ukraine, I can't imagine it would be hard to have a diversion such as destroying these teeth in enough different spots in short order that Russia wouldn't even know which one is a decoy -, likewise with the trenches. Considering that Ukraine has air forces and that this is 2022, the entire idea of a ground trap seems just silly, as the whole thing is already spotted and accounted for in data most likely.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Vox Nihili posted:

China itself stands to benefit strategically from access to cheap Russian fossil fuel so of course they're projecting that on America.

This would only theoretically be something if China wasn't on the actual brink of collapse as a country, unlike the EU simply going through hard times. If Russia gets the short end of the stick, that's by definition going to impact China as well, every level. BRICS isn't BRICS if every one of em is collapsed. Of all financial situations on this planet to be in a bad shape, China's is arguably the worst. Even if GDP of Germany is bypassed by the US (California), it isn't going to say much as to the ongoing war financing or otherwise. Germany could be smaller or bigger and their material amount of assistance (not political, for that matter) I would *guess* would remain similar.

notwithoutmyanus fucked around with this message at 04:17 on Oct 25, 2022

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
The US politicians who made a stupid statement blinked, quickly. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/25/house-progressives-russia-diplomacy-00063338

"House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm"

So thankfully, that should be past us (didn't see anyone else post it).

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Bug Squash posted:

Europe is low-key in the middle of a fairly amazing heat anomaly. It's like a mild summer day at the moment, but it's November, so few people are turning on the heating. This won't last obviously, but it's given time to mitigate the looming heating crisis when winter does arrive. It's incredible good luck for Ukraine and Europe both, and means what hope Russia had to freeze Europe to submission is largely gone.

This is obviously global climate change, as we all fully know. The problem is usually the additional side effects, where we may have an extra cold or extra long winter. So that (I would haphazard a guess?) is maybe an unknown factor in how the latter would be handled? I would hope having more time as you note secures the rest, to keep Europe safe enough to survive.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Nenonen posted:

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) just gave their forecast that in Finland December-February period would be two degrees Celsius warmer than average.

Welp, I'm completely wrong then. Guess that would also work out, which is good.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Quixzlizx posted:

I'm guessing most militaries don't "decommision" nuclear cruise missiles and re-employ them as decoy missiles.

It would be significantly more dangerous to sling teslas with a catapult towards Ukraine.

Humor aside, I guess munitions are running low? I mean excusing using critical missiles for kinetic energy opens a lot of "why?" questions even now.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

cochise posted:

Glad the article mentioned that he poo poo himself. That's the pertinent information that we all needed in these trying times.

I guess we need a new set of stamps from Ukraine.

Russian president, go poo poo yourself.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Kavros posted:

Hey, I'm hearing news that biden managed to get Brittney Griner freed from russia in a prisoner swap, supposedly in exchange for Viktor Bout

Yeah I find this interesting. I hear a lot of speculation about it and I honestly don't know enough to contribute meaningfully to the speculation. So for the more on top of it folks in the thread:

Is this a normal exchange? Unreasonable/good/bad? I recall Griner being somewhat a casualty of crappy circumstances in how she was captured.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Vox Nihili posted:

A few thousand DU rounds would probably be among the least of their worries in terms of the health hazards and pollution being strewn across Ukraine.

Curious, is this an actual concern or even a hypothetical one for Ukraine in general at this point in the war?

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

cinci zoo sniper posted:

Small housekeeping update for the thread – I have resigned from being a D&D moderator.

This thread has honestly been the most informative, clean and helpful to understand the Ukraine situation out of literally anything I've seen on the internet. Ya did pretty much amazing, to say the least.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Charlz Guybon posted:

Is Russia really going to be willing to maul their air force as much as their army? It'll be a lot harder to build back up.

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1626256459280384001

That was kinda my thinking, they must feel they are cash rich from oil lately but in reality...well, those planes are not easily replaced. Is it me or are things just a bit slow lately?

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Rinkles posted:

Idk how representative this sentiment is of the average American conservative

MTG gets an ovation at CPAC for "[Ukraine] needs to find peace, not war."

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1631685373406453761

Support of Ukraine in the us is extremely high and certain extremist conservatives have tried to be angry about Ukraine and do not represent the populace. I believe this will come to a head at some point as it's the same part of Congress that is Republican controlled for now which approves budgets such as military. However I forget how long the budget is already approved for?

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
Not to try to distract, but I felt people were specifically curating parts of articles that helped me understand the content without dealing with paywall hassles. Plus your own massive threads of news updates were always pretty helpful even though you did tiny summaries per article, Cinci.

I'm not saying I can speak for the thread or moderation but I would personally rather read when people link to an archive and snip what's valuable, rather than try to summarize a paywall blocked site as context could be missing.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

Orthanc6 posted:

US shell production is ramping up, Ukraine will want to spend more shells, not less, since they got land to take back. As much trouble as Russia's economy is in, ramping up their own shell production is both a massive priority and not that difficult compared to making more missiles or tanks. So I think we'll be seeing a rise in shell use on both sides over the long term.

The shape of the battlefield will play more of a role in how the war goes. Last spring Ukraine started taking chunks of their land back, this spring they have a weaker enemy and western tanks to help. So while shell production says there should be more shell use later this year, where this war is going could change dramatically within the next few months.

Having an additional supply of tanks will also translate to a bump in maintenance on the tanks and demand for shells. So I think we'll see who can sustain supply better (almost guaranteed Germany and the US) vs Russia.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
Alright, what other news do we have? This seems a bit of a sidetrack with "can a plane's propeller be impacted by liquid"?

Is this significant? http://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-drone-wreckage Or is this another case of "here, take our old poo poo"?

quote:

Here’s a bit more from Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, who has just announced that his country will send Ukraine at least four MiG-29 fighter jets in the coming days. Speaking at a news conference, Duda said Warsaw would hand over four of the Soviet-made warplanes in the coming days.

"Firstly, literally within the next few days, we will hand over, as far as I remember, four aircraft to Ukraine in full working order.
The rest are being prepared, serviced.
"

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notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009
Hmm.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3907602-mcmaster-were-going-to-see-more-evidence-of-china-supporting-russia-in-ukraine-war/

article posted:

Former national security adviser H.R. McMaster predicted in an interview on Sunday that more evidence of China assisting Russia in its invasion in Ukraine will be revealed in the coming days and weeks.

“I think what you’re going to see in the coming days and weeks is more and more evidence of Chinese support,” he told CBS’s Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation.”


How reliable is a quote from McMaster on all of this? Seems to highlight a lot of risk, a lot of things people have additionally warned about for a significant amount of time.

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