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kemikalkadet posted:I was thinking about the brain-drain effect of mobilisation the other day. A russian aviation blogger I follow suddenly went silent after the mobilisation announcement and I was worried they'd got him. He went radio silent for almost a month after usually posting 2-3 times a week, then a few days ago posted a comment on one of his articles that he'd fled the country. He's an aircraft technician and repairs commercial jets for a living so a skilled job, I can only imagine skilled workers are fleeing across all sectors which is going to have all kinds of negative effects on their economy. Skilled workers are likely to find permanent work in their new countries too so the chances of people fleeing mobilisation ever returning are somewhat slim. As much as I get the sentiment from some countries refusing to accept Russian refugees on the grounds they should make some effort to sort poo poo out at home, making it easy for them to flee someplace safe is easily the best way of causing both short and long term damage to the Russian economy. Inflicting long term harm will be important because there's a large number of Russian ultranationalists who would love to rearm and have another crack at Ukraine, and that's going to be much harder with an economy on the rocks.
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Oct 12, 2022 08:26
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 02:55 |
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:It really seems to me that Putin is quickly running out of options, and this is quickly becoming one enormous sunk cost fallacy. I think the only realistic option he has is to hold on and hope that a lack of gas causes Europe to pressure Ukraine into accepting something that can be passed off as a win in Russia. After that? There's not much left by that point. Early spring next year could well be a major inflection point in the war because this is when it will become apparent that Europe has made it through and further pressure on energy markets is unlikely to help Russia's cause. The question then becomes whether Russia is willing to engage in a forever war against a near-peer opponent while suffering sanctions, incurring long term (potentially permanent) economic damage, and facing political backlash at home.
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Nov 12, 2022 01:33
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Is there likely to be an uptick in US aid now the midterms are out of the way and Biden doesn't have to worry quite so much about domestic political blowback if Russia starts rattling the nuke sabre again? I very much doubt they want to head into the presidential election with this war still going on and upping the ante with lethal aid would likely bring it to a faster conclusion.
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Nov 12, 2022 03:43
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Popete posted:The last time NATO was seriously concerned about a full scale Russian invasion was 30+ years ago. Equipment and priorities have changed. NATO can probably afford to send most of their war stocks simply because Ukraine is fighting the war those stockpiles were intended for. After this there is no significant military threat in Europe for several decades at least. The Russian conventional forces are already a shadow of their pre-war selves, in 8 months they've burnt through stockpiles that took the entire Cold War to accumulate and it's going to take a long time to rebuild them to that level. In reality, given Russia's economy is a bit smaller than Italy's so unless they go North Korea-style with the military spending they're probably not getting close to their pre-war combat power. The only other significant military threat to the western nations and their allies comes from North Korea and China, and US air and naval power is probably sufficient to take care of that for some time yet.
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Nov 14, 2022 09:03
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Isn’t there some convention about nations not targeting the heads of other nations during war?
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Nov 15, 2022 01:38
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| # ¿ May 13, 2024 02:55 |
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:looking at the topography of the spit, it's less than half a mile wide and only a few miles long, almost completely flat, with some sparse trees and buildings for cover Until there's actual photos of heavy equipment and a substantial number of troops I assume it's just a couple of squads blowing poo poo up and making a ruckus in the hope the Russians divert their forces to deal with it. If Russia doesn't interrupt them and they're actually able to establish a bridgehead, well, lol I guess it could have started out as a deception but if Russia doesn't take the bait Ukraine might decide to turn it into an actual offensive.
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Nov 15, 2022 08:28
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