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nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Dante80 posted:

Eight more months of this is not something to wish for.

I don't think anyone but psychopaths really want to see more bloodshed in Ukraine, but if we're being realistic it's probably going to take at least another 8 months before Putin throws in the towel. That'd be after surviving the winter and the spring wet season and a potential May/June offensive.

For me personally it's a strange feeling to cheer for the Ukrainians scoring hits on the Russian (back)lines, because every destroyed tank/train/depot is going to be a bunch of people who died. But the alternative is them terrorising and murdering civilian, so....

My maternal grandmother was a refugee from Ukraine/Crimea in the 40s, she left behind a sister and a mother she never heard from again. We don't think we have distant family there, but it's depressing to think what oppressive hell any potential relatives would have had to go through in the last 80 years, only to now face a form of fascism again.

Also: veel Vlamingen hier, amai

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nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



FishBulbia posted:

They can call it "Government in Ex-Kyle" or something

the main characters name would have to be kyle, I can't think of a better pun.

A massive volcanic eruption creates a landbridge to Taiwan and China invades.
The Maldives get completely swept under the sea.

It's possible both options are too depressing..

New-Zealand has been left out of so many maps that the world has finally stopped recognizing it as a nation.

Government in Ex-Isle.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



The Lone Badger posted:

My headcanon is that it was a Ukrainian op start to finish but the FSB agents running the investigation have assumed that it was a false-flag they didn't get briefed on and are busily covering it up.

It's more likely that the corruption visible in the Russian army also permeates the FSB. Why organise an investigation that might take weeks to deliver results when you can just fabricate something to please the bosses. They want to project an aura of incredible effectiveness to the Russian population, so heading off calls for results with whatever disinfo you've got handy is better than letting people have thoughts about the situation.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Enjoy posted:

The Israeli twitter thread earlier mentioned forward elements of Ukrainian forces would raise flags and take propaganda pics so that Russians would think the situation was even more lopsided than it really was, to encourage routs.

If true, that's a brilliant way to fight the Russian army. Their people are used to being bombarded with bullshit, so when presented with evidence of enemy advances, they're going to assume the contradictory info they get from their superiors are bullshit as well.

Alternatively, they've been conditioned to accept propaganda, so maybe the average Russian soldier is more prone to believe the Ukrainian propaganda pictures in the first place.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Charliegrs posted:

Doesn't Russian still have tons of older less precise cruise missiles they can use? Like if they all care about is hitting civilian targets I don't think the accuracy would matter all that much to them.

Unless they're incredibly faster than the modern missiles, they'll be shot down in even greater numbers. The terror-bombing campaign once again galvanized foreign sympathy with Ukraine, resulting in more defences being promised. Putin and his army leadership keeps making the same strategic mistakes.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Nenonen posted:

They don't want to tell what anti-submarine surveillance capabilities they have/don't have because it would eventually end in Russian hands.

This is my guess as well for the Swedish refusal to share.

They either have high level intel about the sabotage through a source that they don't want to burn, or they had some form of eyes on it as it happened, but want to keep it a secret for any number of reasons.

Or they don't want to let the world know they had 0 warning and anyone could come over to blow up some more underwater infrastructure without any real repercussions.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Maybe the switchblades would have been more useful if the Russians were more competent and Ukraine needed a higher-tech solution than "commercial drone with grenade attached by string".

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Owling Howl posted:

I don't think there's really a counter to it. The only thing Ukraine and allies can do is make a similar program and use it against Russia. If Ukraine could bootstrap their own program they could strike further behind the lines without ATACMs.

The counter is going to be drone-hunter drones. Armed with something that can disrupt the capability of the target drone to fly, until the attack suicide drones get better defences and it'll set off a new type of arms race. I'm not sure if we'll see something like it in the current war, but future conflicts are going to have to have them.

The drone could be bigger because it doesn't require as much stealth to defend a region, so maybe it carries a bunch of nets to tangle up the target drone. Or it's got a sawblade attached for aerial robot wars.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



The google translate phone app can kinda translate stuff you point it at. It's not perfect, but works to get a general idea of what has been written if you have a baseline context.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



cinci zoo sniper posted:

I’ll just use “e” in the title to inflict psychic damage on Russian speaking thread readers.

Resisting the Russian invasion from e to Z.

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



saratoga posted:

I think the most notable thing is that 2 months after the Kharkov rout the same "shell, push, surround" strategy is still working. Given that this is ground they've held for months, and they know where the attack is coming you'd expect them to be able to halt it or at least inflict heavy enough casualties that they're forced to regroup. If this continues it's going to be a brutal, dispiriting winter for the Russians.

Also that the strategy of filling up the frontline with fresh conscripts hasn't stopped Ukraine from achieving gains. Has there been any news on conscripts receiving actual training? I haven't been as diligent following the news the last few weeks, was it just a complete shitshow, or did at least some training happen for some of the conscripts?

nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



KitConstantine posted:

French news documentary on how Russian POWs are held in Ukraine - untranslated but still interesting to watch regardless
https://twitter.com/MaryseBurgot/status/1585130671009210368?s=20&t=RkrMSZmwh8J867V849eztg


There's not much groundbreaking info in it, the quotes from the POWs are the most interesting part, one guy was captured in February after an ambush. They get two hours of Ukrainian television a day and the quoted POW basically says he's confused because the Russian authorities told him one thing, but the television shows him the opposite. Says he finds it all very unclear.

Some guys lost legs due to mines, but the Ukrainians are giving them treatment for it. The red cross has visited the camp, but hadn't released an official statement on it.


All in all I think the Russian POWs are getting a very fair treatment, compared to what Ukrainians captured by the Russians must be going through.

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nimby
Nov 4, 2009

The pinnacle of cloud computing.



Kraftwerk posted:

Then there's the cost of running it and using up the missiles for low value targets with high value impact (kamikaze drones) and I wonder if there's a better way to do this. To me what's happening right now is a campaign reminiscent of the London Blitz in WW2. Only now you have to contend with missiles and small aircraft that barely show up on radar. I'd hate to be a Ukrainian patriot operator detecting an Iranian drone about to blow up an apartment block and having to forgo firing a missile because I'm waiting for a Kalibr missile heading to a power plant or transformer station.

The Patriots being availability for anti-Kalibr duty opens up other systems for the kamikaze drones though. Until Ukraine ends up running out of ammo for their other systems, I really doubt they'd retire them.

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