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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
This is the equivalent of of WWI reconnaissance pilots shooting at each other with revolvers in 1914.

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Excellent thread

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580698844291289090

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580700160103174146

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580701513626058754

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580702452273537024

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580703504251125760

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580704956197527553

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580705231402590208

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1580708620605755393

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1580542597092675584

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Confirmed losses have passed the 7k mark

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1580265335147855872

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

spankmeister posted:

Weird flex by Sweden imo.

Joining NATO means having to participate in these kinds of things, doesn't it?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

ronya posted:

It's quite straightforward to understand - Pakistan in SEATO, 1967 war with China, 1971 war with Pakistan, Sino-Soviet split, Shanghai communique - India spent much of the Cold War more powerful than or at least at parity with China, whilst China was but one node of a web of US allies encircling it


What? China has never been a US ally.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

wet_goods posted:

Uhhh ww2, flying tigers etc

Okay. The People's Republic of China has never been a US ally

FishBulbia posted:

sino-soviet split ...

We were blindsided that this even existed. Just because two enemies start fighting, doesn't make one our friend.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Owling Howl posted:

The main problem with the Iranian drones is that they are cheap and plentiful. Practcally just an MC engine strapped to a fiberglass fuselage and some electronics for control. They seem to exploit a gap in AA capabilities that haven't been developed to deal with that type of threat. AA has been focused on fast and expensive missiles or planes - not swarms of aerial mopeds. It's not sustainable to shoot down a $5.000 drone with a $100.000 missile especially if you can produce the drones faster than the AA missiles. You're kinda hosed whether you shoot it down or not.

I don't think there's really a counter to it. The only thing Ukraine and allies can do is make a similar program and use it against Russia. If Ukraine could bootstrap their own program they could strike further behind the lines without ATACMs.

Old fashioned gun AA systems like the gepard should work

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Oct 18, 2022

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Samopsa posted:

Winter wheat is the most common (95% in normal times), and that's harvested in July/Augustus normally. Here's an article from late july about harvested grains piling up in Ukraine: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/ukraine-grain-harvest-piles.html

Why is it called Winter Wheat if it is harvested in the summer?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Chalks posted:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1586996489150152704

Ukraine is getting close to a 90% intercept rate for these missile strikes. As more anti-air arrives and low stocks cause the strikes to shrink it looks like they could reach 100%.

How many cruise missiles can Russia have left?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Is the Times guilty of Clancy chat?

https://twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1587734009748099075

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
This seems too good to be true

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

‘A joke that went out of control’: crowdfunding weapons for Ukraine’s war

In just nine hours, the Prytula Foundation raised $5.5m from private donors to buy 50 FV103 Spartans used by the British Army

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/03/a-joke-that-went-out-of-control-crowdfunding-weapons-for-ukraines-war

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Ukraine reporting huge numbers of Russian casualties in recent days. Are the conscripts finally reaching the front in numbers?

https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-armed-forces-kill-over-071828396.html

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Rad Russian posted:

Just watching the various videos from Russia on telegram from mobilization centers. Mobiks post videos complaining of sleeping on the ground, getting no food, no clothing, rotten weapons, etc. Several big fights already happened inside these centers. However, I have yet to see actual mass refusal or rebelling. The only significant incident resulting in the shooting was a dumb officer insulting Allah. Outside of that nothing. They're openly complaining, have 0 morale, have no decent equipment, say "this is bullshit, we're just cannon fodder" openly on videos and social media, and then still end up in Ukraine trenches in the end. I get that a certain percentage of them have 0 clue what's going on or where they're going, however, most actually have a good idea they're being sent to Ukraine to fight.

I always was dumbfounded at how people in WW1 went into the trenches after seeing the previous 100K+ of their mates die there without doing anything beneficial. I always said, "I'd just refuse or hide or go to jail instead, what's up with going to certain death?" Well, apparently large groups of people are OK with that still, even now.
The soldiers in WWI on both sides were generally ideologically committed to the war due to nationalism. The situation in this war is different because the Ukranians have that and the Russians generally don't. Nationalism is just another form of political ideology, and while it is the one ideology that is superficially allowed in Russia, Putin’s regime enforced apathy undermines that along with everything else.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Lol. Who could have imagined this on February 24th.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1590303954750951424

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

FishBulbia posted:

US General Milley says war has killed or injured 200,000 military personnel total (on both sides), with an even split, and that around 40,000 civilians have died.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372

Woah... That's by far the worst estimate I've seen for Ukraine’s military casualties.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
The bottleneck that are the evacuation points is going to cause a massacre

https://twitter.com/Etern8tyOSINT/status/1590768639736967168
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1590837958835597312
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1590843978919792640
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1590843434579132428

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Herstory Begins Now posted:

They were moving equipment into Kherson through most of the summer and fall. In the last month they've been moving mobiks in and, we think, rotating out some, albeit notably not all, of their better units out. Their defenses around Kherson never collapsed that the way that they would have without any of their good forces left so while there's almost definitely been a withdrawal happening for some time, it definitely was limited in its scope.

This was probably the plan all along. Rotate out the high quality troops they have left, rotate in some conscripts that will be sacrificed to ensure the escape of the former.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nenonen posted:

It was absolutely insane to publicly announce that you are withdrawing when there was no plan of how to do it. Not that with the level of Russian comsec you could have kept it hidden very long, but at least the initial rumours were unconfirmed and taken with a grain of salt.

So now what. Russians in Kherson are spread across a wide and shallow zone along Dnipro. Bridges and big barges are becoming increasingly risky as they make high value targets for Ukrainian artillery. However Russians have lots of amphibious vehicles and Kherson area is full of smaller civilian boats so I think there is going to be real regatta once they start to run out of options.
Didn't the Russians spend the last month sinking those boats?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Interesting historical thread, but not really stiring any irredentist feelings in me.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MuKappa/status/1590756615103184897

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
:thunk:

https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1591285656462176257

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1591388780963168256

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
I'm really surprised that a rolls royce that was owned by Freddie Mercury only went for $284k. I would have expected that to go for a few million easy.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1591488510804262912

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Good
https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1591393913499271168

https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1591393922382798848

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
About 10,000 dead per month.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591584124850028549

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Ukraine is investigating 400 war crimes in Kherson

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63619280

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Charliegrs posted:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1591830216669732864?s=20&t=lf4-f31LpHJB4O8fu9qq-g

How in the hell would western countries ever have fought a war with Russia? Just the act of supplying a third party with arms is now depleting their ammo reserves I can't imagine what it would be like if NATO countries fought Russia (or China) directly. I know the military industrial complex must be LOVING this though.
It was expected that a conventional world war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact would at most last one or two months. Either the Reds reach the channel or the Soviet army and economy collapses.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Cable Guy posted:

I've seen the video in that tweet posted a couple of times, but I've not seen anything that definitely connects it to operations in Kinburn. Has anybody got a source to confirm that...? I mean given the opsec conditions that Ukraine seems to be operating under I don't see a reason why they would release this unless it was older footage or from a different area...
====

St Andrew's cross but St Javelin's goddamn pissed....

(sry - had to)

I smiled. :)

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Russians are closing in on 8,000 major pieces of equipment, including 1500 tanks, visually confirmed lost. :psyduck:

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1592068009941946369

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

looking at the topography of the spit, it's less than half a mile wide and only a few miles long, almost completely flat, with some sparse trees and buildings for cover

it seems like ukraine actually attempting a sustained landing there would be like the us marines fighting the island hopping campaigns, only without naval superiority, air superiority, artillery superiority, logistical superiority, or numerical superiority. obviously the russians don't have the moral or cohesion of the japanese, but christ if they could actually gain a lodgment on this ground it would be because the russian army in front of them has effectively ceased to exist
Wouldn't Ukranian artillery from the mainland be able to cover them?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Usual suspects

https://twitter.com/alex_owski/status/1592283279666855942

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/1593082574561488896

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

It's self-explanatory. During these kinds of tensions, the Pentagon needs to be able to contact their peers in Moscow.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Dutch court finds two Russians, one Ukrainian separatist guilty over downing of flight MH17

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/17/europe/mh17-trial-verdict-intl/index.html

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Mearsheimer's theory is very simple and is really just a modern distillation of the oldest foreign policy theories going back to Thucydides. "The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must."

However, he insists against all reason and evidence that Russia is strong and Ukraine and the EU are weak. And thus his policy proposals are nonsense.

By the logic of his own theories the US and NATO allies in Europe are so much stronger than Russia that they're fully justified in carving out pieces of the former Soviet Union and Russia should just suck it up and try to align with them.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Paladinus posted:

As I said, not clear what happened between the videos, but considering that apart from the one soldiers who actually opened fire, the rest appear to have remained on the ground, and were shown dead in the same position, I think at the very least not all of them were perfidious in this case.

The victims of perfidy are not the guys on the other side that you try to ambush. It's the guys on your own side that are legitimately trying to surrender, becuase the enemy can no longer trust them and will gun down the whole group.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
8000 vehicles! 1500 tanks!https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1593714765150490628

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Imagine if an american did that to iraqis on video, or a cop to civilians, or a frenchman to algerians, or a russian mercenarykazakh policeman to protestors, nearly any other scenario than this. It's specifically ok because you see this time it was ok to gun down surrendered tied up pows because they probably deserved it. It's ok to support Ukraine and still say "that's bad." It's still ultimately the fault of the russian government. It's not a big moral quandary.

It'd be okay if any of those examples happened or if any of those situations were reversed. Perfidy is against the rules of war for a reason and this was a flagrant example of such.

It's still tragic, because all war is tragic, but it's not a war crime for the Ukrainians. It's the Russian that opened fire that is the war criminal. The blood of his comrades that were attempting to surrender are on his hands.

Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 07:07 on Nov 19, 2022

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