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Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Just to centre the ideological drive of the Russian invasion, remember that the Ukranian homonazis want to force all Russians to attend pride parades at gunpoint
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1580125305200840704

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Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
PHotos and some footage coming out in recent hours of UAF entering Kherson city proper
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591023216130392065

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Several reports from different media talking about Soledar being enveloped by RuF
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1612588298509090817

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
The Independent is reporting that Sunak has authorised a Challenger squadron to be sent to Ukraine

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

fuctifino posted:

Tanks, but not soldiers as your post implied

[e: You made my heart jump. lol]


My post didn't infer anything, the UK government themselves describe it as such. Training crews and giving the tanks is deploying a squadron.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war

I think Australia should do similar with their stock of Abrams.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Australia sending a contingent today over to the UK to assist with training today
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-environments

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
UK MoD reporting Armatas present in staging areas for possible deployment. Good thread.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1615956174800654338?t=KOtXeMFol5j81sShgi7huw&s=19

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Well it might come to a head sooner than anticipated
https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1616201999845888000?t=TfmNlLJVrsD6DDmBEFXoPg&s=19

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1617267274213380097
Anyone able to provide a more accurate translation? Seems like tacit support for re-export?

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1617807377490935808

I can't imagine approvals being given for training if approvals for re-export weren't in the works or Poland just does it anyway.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

mlmp08 posted:

Obviously no one is going to provide detailed info, but this much can be pointed out plainly:

-Ukraine is a cloudy place.
-Fixed test launch sites being prepped for a well known test are small. Ukraine and Russia are big.
-24/7 isn’t really how orbital mechanics work.

There are thermal and other specialist satellites that don't just collect visible spectrum light
24/7 can be done with geostationary satellites, it's getting them there that's the problem

Paracausal fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Jan 26, 2023

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
US plausibly claiming we're approaching ~200k Russian casualties;
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/us/politics/ukraine-russia-casualties.html

quote:

WASHINGTON — The number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is approaching 200,000, a stark symbol of just how badly President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion has gone, according to American and other Western officials.

While the officials caution that casualties are notoriously difficult to estimate, particularly because Moscow is believed to routinely undercount its war dead and injured, they say the slaughter from fighting in and around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut and the town of Soledar has ballooned what was already a heavy toll.

With Moscow desperate for a major battlefield victory and viewing Bakhmut as the key to seizing the entire eastern Donbas area, the Russian military has sent poorly trained recruits and former convicts to the front lines, straight into the path of Ukrainian shelling and machine guns. The result, American officials say, has been hundreds of troops killed or injured a day.

Russia analysts say that the loss of life is unlikely to be a deterrent to Mr. Putin’s war aims. He has no political opposition at home and has framed the war as the kind of struggle the country faced in World War II, when more than 8 million Soviet troops died. U.S. officials have said that they believe that Mr. Putin can sustain hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine, although higher numbers could cut into his political support.

Ukraine’s casualty figures are also difficult to ascertain, given Kyiv’s reluctance to disclose its own wartime losses. But in Bakhmut, hundreds of Ukrainian troops have been wounded and killed daily at times as well, officials said. Better trained infantry formations are kept in reserve to safeguard them, while lesser prepared troops, such as those in the territorial defense units, are kept on the front line and bear the brunt of shelling.

The last public Biden administration estimate of casualties came last November, when Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that more than 100,000 troops on each side had been killed and wounded since the war began. At the time, officials said privately that the numbers were closer to 120,000.

“I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now,” General Milley said at a news conference last month in Germany, adding that the Russian toll included “regular military, and also their mercenaries in the Wagner Group.”

At two meetings last month between senior military and defense officials from NATO and partner countries, officials said the fighting in the Donbas had turned into, as one of them put it, a meat grinder.

On Norwegian TV on Jan. 22, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, said estimates were that Russia had suffered 180,000 dead and wounded, while Ukraine had 100,000 killed or wounded in action along with 30,000 civilian deaths. General Kristoffersen, in an email to The New York Times through his spokesman, said that there is “much uncertainty regarding these numbers, as no one at the moment are able to give a good overview. They could be both lower or even higher.”

Senior U.S. officials said this week that they believe the number for Russia is closer to 200,000. That toll, in just 11 months, is eight times higher than American casualties in two decades of war in Afghanistan.

The figures for Ukraine and Russia are estimates based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media and on-the-ground media reports, as well as official reporting from both governments. Establishing precise numbers is extremely difficult, and estimates vary, even within the U.S. government.

A senior U.S. military official last month described the combat around Bakhmut as savage. The two sides exchanged several thousand rounds of artillery fire each day, while the Wagner private military company, which has been central to Russia’s efforts there, had essentially begun using recruited convicts as cannon fodder, the official told reporters. He spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

The convicts took the brunt of the Ukrainian response while the group’s more seasoned fighters moved in behind them to claim ground, the official said. Wagner has recruited some 50,000 troops to fight in Ukraine, according to senior American military and defense officials.

Thousands of the convicts have been killed, a loss of life that has shocked American officials, who say the strategic value of Bakhmut simply is not in line with the price Russia has paid.

In an interview on Tuesday, a senior Defense official pointed to myriad Russian military supply and tactical problems to explain the Russian tactics. Russia, he said, is running low on artillery, and low on munitions. So Moscow is making up for that deficit by sending in convicts in waves into places like Bakhmut and Soledar, losing hundreds of people a day.

The Russian military has been following the Wagner playbook and deliberately using the poorly trained troops to draw, and deplete, Ukrainian fire, senior American military and defense officials said.

Kusti Salm, Estonia’s deputy defense minister, in a briefing with reporters in Washington last week, said that Russia’s casualties were high in part because of its use of convicts on the front line in Bakhmut.

“In this particular area, the Russians have employed around 40,000 to 50,000 inmates or prisoners,” Mr. Salm said. “They are going up against regular soldiers, people with families, people with regular training, valuable people for the Ukrainian military.”

“So the exchange rate is unfair,” he added. “It’s not one to one because for Russia, inmates are expendable. From an operational perspective, this is a very unfair deal for the Ukrainians and a clever tactical move from the Russian side.”

Moscow has thrown people it sees as expendable into battles for decades, if not centuries. During World War II, Joseph Stalin sent close to one million prisoners to the front. Boris Sokolov, a Russia historian, describes in a piece called “Gulag Reserves” in the Russian opposition magazine Grani.ru that an additional one million “special settlers”— deportees and others viewed by the Soviet government as second-class citizens — were also forced to fight during World War II.

“In essence, it does not matter how big the Russian losses are, since their overall human resource is much greater than Ukraine’s,” Mr. Salm, the Estonian official, said in a follow-up email. “In Russia the life of a soldier is worth nothing. A dead soldier, on the other hand, is a hero, regardless of how he died. All lost soldiers can be replaced, and the number of losses will not shift the public opinion against the war.”

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1623241025631256576?t=6O0cQB8Q4UJStwcucae4yQ&s=19

Drumming up support in the UK today

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

Charlz Guybon posted:

One of the top vidoes on R/ukraine right now is a column of Russian tanks driving into a mine field one after another at Vuhledar.

It's been a year. How does this poo poo still happen!?

New offensive. New troops. Same mistakes.

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Article showcasing some of the photography and art from the last year
https://www.ft.com/content/2cb05b02-a9dc-497c-b926-51bb291e7d3b

Dmitri from war translated with some interesting information about the Russians not paying soldiers
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627248785570033666?t=hrM5n2TyydI9ZWrTYZQXew&s=19

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Biden has turned up in Kyiv, expecting some other announcements today
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1627607543483703296?t=xKPH7oKbh3a76t1JvtsHNA&s=19

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.

mlmp08 posted:

Azov regiment and the Wolf’s angel symbol is the easy target.

They rebranded several months ago following siege of Mariupol to remove this explicit marker to having both the AFU trident, or 3 perpendicular lines

e: now known as 3rd separate assault brigade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3rd_Separate_Assault_Brigade_(Ukraine)

Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Further investigation and exhumation regarding Russian war crimes are revealing the depth of brutality visited upon innocent people.
https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/status/1629906366163742720?t=yNFibdK9TXGtMc1lOFyJsQ&s=19

Absolutely shameful.

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Paracausal
Sep 5, 2011

Oh yeah, baby. Frame your suffering as a masterpiece. Only one problem - no one's watching. It's boring, buddy, boring as death.
Post Soviet Russia's primary cultural export is insane dash cam footage so this drone collision is consistent with that at least

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