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MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



cinci zoo sniper posted:

I don't watch videos all that much, so I'll just link a few videos that I have not watched, but of people that I consider erudites regarding the conflict, to pacify the YouTube crowd.

I would like adding Perun there, who has probably some of the best YouTube commentary it is, IMO.

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MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



cinci zoo sniper posted:

Kinburn rumours beg to ask what sort of bridging equipment would they be running, assuming that the intended implication is that this is a non-comedy force capable of routing Russian forces at the banks, where there should be weeks work of fortifications work over a 15 kilometres deep coastal buffer zone.

Apparently the area is pretty swampy and hard to actually fortify (and supply), and the only well defended area was the western portion of it. I was hearing speculation that Ukraine would relatively quickly be able to retake that area for days now. Of course, this is also an issue for Ukraine of actually using the position to make any real further gain beyond that.

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



Rinkles posted:

Idk how representative this sentiment is of the average American conservative

MTG gets an ovation at CPAC for "[Ukraine] needs to find peace, not war."

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1631685373406453761

This is also a woman who also blamed a wildfire on "Jewish Space Lasers." She is basically the craziest conservative in congress (which is saying something). The most recent (late-January) polling shows 48% of Americans still favor sending more weapons to Ukraine, with only 29% opposed. Its a weaker 39% to 37% for Republicans though. Economic aid is more controversial though.

Regardless of the polling though, historically, when it comes to matters of foreign policy, the tide needs to be more strongly turned against it to actually begin pulling back. Battlelines are beginning to be drawn within the Republican party between the populist faction and the more traditional conservative faction, after the populists got destroyed in the 2022 midterm. The populists would be likely to block weapons support, but not-so much the tradition faction, and given the 2022 results, it seems unlikely that the populists will be able to get their way unless they make it their top priority in 2024.

Its worth noting that many lefty types are similarly anti-Ukraine in this regard, but have even less power than the right-wing populists in the democrats. Mostly it has resulted in the few of the self-identifying socialists in congress to be a bit more "moderate" to preserve their image among their base, but not to that extent.

I can certainly see in 2024 there being some quibbling over the amount of things sent causing it to be reduced, but I doubt anything more than that.

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



RockWhisperer posted:

Counterpoint: NATO is a defensive alliance and no nuclear armed country's mainland has ever been attacked by a conventional army. Also, nobody is coerced to join NATO. Look at how much it takes to allow Sweden or Finland to join.

This statement is almost underselling it. The Eastern Europeans desperately wanted to join NATO to the point that they basically were threatening to campaign for Republicans in the 1996 election year, and which caused the US to work out a deal with Russia that involved giving them 4.5 billion USD.

Why did these countries want to join so badly? Because they didn't want to be invaded by Russia. Which, as it turned out, was a very relevant fear.

MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



Since I haven't seen it shared yet:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/us/politics/pentagon-war-crimes-hague.html

first 3 paragraphs posted:

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is blocking the Biden administration from sharing evidence with the International Criminal Court in The Hague gathered by American intelligence agencies about Russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to current and former officials briefed on the matter.

American military leaders oppose helping the court investigate Russians because they fear setting a precedent that might help pave the way for it to prosecute Americans. The rest of the administration, including intelligence agencies and the State and Justice Departments, favors sharing the evidence with the court, the officials said.

President Biden has yet to resolve the impasse, officials said.

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MegaZeroX
Dec 11, 2013

"I'm Jack Frost, ho! Nice to meet ya, hee ho!"



adebisi lives posted:

Libya might be surprised to hear it's a defensive alliance. Thats just recent history! I wonder if Northern Cyprus or Crimea will be internationally recognized first. Maybe it can be a package deal.

Ah yes, the famous NATO-sanctioned Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Oh wait, all the NATO members actually condemned it? And no one recognizes Northern Cyrpus other than Turkey? But commies on Twitter said that literally everything bad in this world is the US's fault.

I suppose if Russia devolves into civil war, and the UN representative of Russia asks for NATO to get involved, along with all of Russia's neighbors, with universal security council support, maybe that Libya example will work. Except you don't need to be told that if a nuclear-armed country devolves into civil war, military powers are going to intervene lol.

MegaZeroX fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Mar 8, 2023

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