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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Small White Dragon posted:

What is the state of Independent Russian media? To be honest, I thought there wasn't really any left.

It is, just not located in Russia for what should be obvious reasons. A lot has moved to the Baltics/Poland/Germany etc.

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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Dwesa posted:

Considering various news that some German officials (including chief of their cybersecurity agency) have ties to Russia, they might have worries that their partners in investigation might be compromised.

About 95% sure it’s this, especially when it comes to Germany. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if we hear more moles being outed from their security services seems Russia has been co-opting them since probably reunification. Remember Putin was in East Germany during USSR and probably had a lot of assets there.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

If you want to play some fifth dimensional chess, a weakened Russia leads to a power vacuum in the area which Iran could possibly be looking to fill in some of the -stan’s, and the longer this war drags on the more weakened Russia will become. If Russia wins or doesn’t collapse they’ll remember their good Iranian friends.

It could also serve the purpose of wringing more concessions from the US who want Iran back in the deal Obama set up by giving Iran something to offer to give up (supplying missiles to Russia) in exchange for whatever they’re after.

Israel would absolutely want to test their defenses against Iranian missiles in a kind of no risk proxy war. Why they haven’t supplied any already may be because of worries they’d be captured by Russia and fall into the wrong hands (traded to Iran) but the temptation of Iranian missile targets is possibly enough to tip them over the edge (and I imagine they’re getting a lot of pressure from the US to step up and do so as well).

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Baronjutter posted:

Since the start of this my big worry has always been Putin's ideological allies gaining power in enough western countries to cut Ukraine off from aid. I'm still terrified of this happening, specially in the US :(

That is a very legitimate fear. Especially if Trump wins in 2024. Not that the Republicans aren't already making noises about how if they win the House they're cutting aid.

quote:

McCarthy, who could be House speaker if Republicans triumph, indicated that that could end in a GOP-led House.

“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he recently told Punchbowl News. “They just won’t do it.”

McCarthy suggested that Americans want Congress to focus on issues closer to home.

Oracle fucked around with this message at 00:44 on Oct 19, 2022

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

It'll be autonomous ai controlled swarms against each other. Friendly fire isn't acceptable in a self driving car but as long as it's minimal It'll be acceptable in war. Front toward enemy.

They're already testing these in.... Tennessee? Kentucky?

Yeah, Tennessee.

quote:

Launched in 2017, the OFFensive Swarm-Enabled Tactics (OFFSET) program aims to develop an ecosystem of unmanned ground and aerial vehicles available to small infantry units that can be deployed as swarms of up to 250 units towards the accomplishment of various tasks in complex, urban terrain. The final goal is the development of a system of “swarm tactics” responsive to human commands enabled through algorithms. The whole swarm would fall under the command of a single team consisting of a “swarm commander” and an operator.

The project’s manager, Timothy Chung, was very positive about the advancements made over the past four years and about the test itself. He stated that the test and wider program demonstrated that “these swarm capabilities are rapidly nearing availability for future operations”. Chung also emphasized that the program developed not just advanced capabilities but also a swarm capability community.

John Watson, who leads the Fort Campbell Directorate of Plans, Training, Mobilization and Security, provided additional details on what the capabilities demonstrated by the field test will mean for future soldiers.

“If a unit is coming up into a densely populated urban area, they could use a swarm of unmanned aircraft systems to go and do a reconnaissance. Instead of having to send soldiers in there and spend manpower and other resources, you can send your drones in there to do that reconnaissance and validate threats. […] To do a reconnaissance of Cassidy would probably take a company plus of soldiers to do, or a battalion minus, whereas if this technology is fully developed, one soldier is all it takes to control the swarm and do the reconnaissance. And one of the future technologies they’re talking about is being able to pair human and swarm teaming and use part of the swarm to breach a door, so if you think there’s a threat in the building you can use them to breach the door instead of a soldier.”

Northrop Grumman Mission Systems and Raytheon BBN Technologies participated in the test as Swarm System integrators; their role was to develop open architecture which enables the swarm operations concept. Sentien Robotics and Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, meanwhile, demonstrated platforms that can be integrated as part of the swarm. The Michigan Tech Research Institute virtually demonstrated new “acoustic spoofing payload and see-through-wall sensing payload capabilities” which are expected to be further tested in early 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W34NPbGkLGI

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Menschsein posted:

Unfortunately I'm paywalled on the e-paper, but have the paper version (haven't had a chance to read it yet). The source is entirely legit, It's the only Estonian weekly doing investigative reporting. The same paper recently published a longform consisting of interviews with acting and former Baltic counterintelligence officers. It's been translated, I'm sure it popped up here as well. If you haven't read it, absolutely take the time and do. It's grim reading.

I have no doubt the above article will be translated as well in due course.

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1582038329578516480

Just read that article, and Jesus. Yeah, its grim but it sure stinks of uncomfortable truth. It'll be a hard pill for the West to swallow but I think we're going to have to if we expect this war to be anything but a first salvo in a long loving slog.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Chalks posted:

Do we know if Russia is going to be able to jump right back in to sabotaging the grain shipments like this now they're agreeing to the deal again?

Also, what exactly does Russia get by delaying the grain shipments? The west stopped caring about the shipments once the deal was signed, so doing this has all the down sides but without any of the leverage?

Its still leverage in that it will contribute to destabilization of areas of the world that tend to bleed out into other areas of the world. For instance food shortages in Africa mean more migrants to Europe which leads to more ascendant rightwing fascist parties, more coups and instability in the Third World and Russia being able to wield a big stick over the heads of poor African/Middle Eastern governments in the form of 'bread for your people in exchange for you helping to muddy the waters and blame Ukraine and the West for this terrible war/vote for Russian proposals in the UN/keep your oil production low to bump up gas prices etc otherwise good luck with unrest when noone can afford to eat a staple food crop.'

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Bar Ran Dun posted:

2000 lbs -short ton, ST
2240 lbs - long ton, LT
1000 kgs - metric ton, MT, 1 m^3 of water at 1.0000 apparent density in air at 15C
Cargo Carrying capacity in MT at summer marks - DWT
100 cu. ft internal volume - 1 gross register ton (which isn’t a weight but is a volume
GRT - non cargo spaces = NRT

NRT and GRT are now technically unit less though.

Wow this is incredibly helpful thank you!

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Nenonen posted:

Incredible if they're really gone. What a way to betray the 87% of people who voted for annexation to Russia!

It would be really good news if the city was saved from fighting. Although as the Russian strategy is to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure, would they really leave everything intact as they left...

This is ominous to me. Quite possible they’re leaving in order to lure in Ukrainian forces to retake the city then bomb the utter poo poo out of it.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

I don't know that it was deliberately aimed at Poland but I can definitely see them aiming at something critical as close to the border as possible in that characteristic 'I'm not touching you and anyway what're you going to do about it' teenage bully Russian way. Looks like Germany at least is realizing you cannot give Russia an inch or the benefit of the doubt.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

This stinks of rear end covering by AP. The editor is the one who made the call to run it not the reporter they should’ve taken the fall, especially on a story this potentially consequential. You don’t just ponder ‘wonder if this will start a world war’ then go ‘Welp let’s run it’ I’d want at least two sources on that or to drive out and look at it my own drat self before I published something like that and I was just a college newspaper editor/stringer.
Course I’m also old enough to remember the Cold War, the Day After movies, and 9/11 / Gulf War II so maybe that makes a difference.

And I still have my suspicions it was absolutely a Russian missile shot down that landed on those poor farmers and the US convinced Poland to shut up about it in exchange for broader air coverage that would extend well into Ukraine. Because regardless of what some people think the US absolutely does not want NATO pulled into this.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Kavros posted:

Hey, I'm hearing news that biden managed to get Brittney Griner freed from russia in a prisoner swap, supposedly in exchange for Viktor Bout

It’s true Biden made the announcement early this morning with her wife in the Oval Office.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

source your quotes.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Scratch Monkey posted:

Why? Do they actually believe Moscow is somehow in danger or is this just for show?

Gotta show the people you’re protecting them from imminent danger.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Rad Russian posted:

EU: You can't sell your $10 widget for more than $2!

Russia: Ok, my widget now costs $1 (plus $10 for shipping and handling)

EU: Who could have foreseen this?

Ah yes the EBay gambit.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Burns posted:

I am absolutely loving the name Rail Force One.

It sounds like a Chuck Tingle book.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Kallikaa posted:

Coincidently

Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Johan Forssell visits Türkiye in connection with the earthquake disaster

https://swedish-presidency.consiliu...quake-disaster/

Erdogan’s poll numbers must not be looking too good after that quake and the fact that he’s on camera bragging about having pretty much waived all construction zoning earthquake safety laws in the hard hit areas in an attempt to make a lot of housing cheap and quick back in 2019.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

the holy poopacy posted:

I'm not really sure about that. It's in China's best interest for the war to be over yesterday and it doesn't particularly matter if it ends on Russia's terms... but China definitely does not want the West to score an unambiguous win. If China can strongarm Russia into a genuine compromise (that isn't a total capitulation) and get Ukraine to go along with it then it would be a huge diplomatic score for China.

They won't. They don't want Russia to lose anything because any compromise just undermines their plans for reabsorbing Taiwan. Ukraine is Russian and its an internal matter and NATO/the West shouldn't have butted in and upset everything. They'll do it to look reasonable and not commit to jack poo poo just like Russia's been doing the whole time, and if Zelensky isn't blinded by hope he'll see right through it. And honestly, he's dealt with Russia enough to know when an autocrat is blowing smoke, I suspect.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Baronjutter posted:

Offer to help rebuild the russian economy, do the same economic imperialism in russia as they do in africa.
There is no way in hell Putin can survive the kind of optics having to be rescued by China will bring to Russia's self-image as the primary bulwark against 'the West.' He wants to regain the old Empire and be a world power like in the old USSR days, not play vassal state to some other country full of minorities no less. China wouldn't offer because they well understand the concept of 'face' and it'd be a serious insult if they did and they know it.

quote:

Going all with Russia is going to kickstart a much more serious cold war between China and the West and I don't see how that's possibly good for China.
If China thinks its already started and they need to get while the getting's good before all the sanctions on chips and such really have a chance to start biting, I could see them deciding to go mask off and jump in like they did with dropping covid mitigations, to get out in front of it. Propping up Russia also secures their western flank. A battered, distracted Russia on their border is better than a conquered, Western-leaning Russia. But I doubt they'd go all-in when they can just do a boil-the-frog ala the US and point to what they're doing with Russia being no different.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Way late.

Oracle fucked around with this message at 02:27 on Mar 7, 2023

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