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Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Just Another Lurker posted:

Latest Perun vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCEzEVwOwS4&t=10s Air defence in Ukraine, covering planes/choppers, drones & SAMs.

Ok, listening to this, it seems like Iran's cheap loitering munitions could post a significant threat to Ukraine. If kamikaze drones can destroy or use up Ukraine's air defense systems, then Russia can gain air superiority.

Does NATO have much they could offer to replace Ukraine's existing air defense systems? It seems like S-300s have been real MVPs in this conflict, and it sounds like NATO systems aren't quite their equal.

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Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





cinci zoo sniper posted:

It would be really disastrous, since the dam is holding 18.18 cubic kilometres of water - the reservoir behind it is roughly 230x9.3 kilometres. The one aspect where blowing that up doesn’t make sense to me is how they plan to ensure Crimean water supply if they blow the dam up and leave.

Step 1: Blow up dam
Step 3: Win war special military operation
Step Profit: Grateful new little russian brothers build new dam and grant Crimea all the water out of contrition.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Paladinus posted:

If Russia managed to retreat from Kyiv and Kharkiv with relatively low casualties, I don't imagine retreating from Kherson, where they had more time to prepare, can go much worse. Ukrainian telegram channels spread rumours that ~18k Russian soldiers were left behind and are about to get crushed, but it's very hard to believe that.

Kharkiv didn't have any bottlenecks to slow the retreat down.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





The Ukrainian MOD has been pretty good about valuing lives and retreating when it makes sense, so it would be out of character for them to defend Bakhmut out of sheer stubbornness. Beyond inflicting casualties, I'd like to note that Ukraine may not want to break Russia's current losing streak. The longer that streak drags out, the better Ukraine looks for their backers and the worse things get for Russia internally. Even a well planned, well executed retreat from Bakhmut could jeopardize that.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





aphid_licker posted:

These are two conflicting statements.

They're really not. The Ukrainian MOD has been good about spending lives carefully, and they're likely taking Russia's overall momentum into account.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Kraftwerk posted:

Do they still have that massive chain on the Bosporus that they can lift up to block ships?

That was across the Golden Horn, iirc

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Nitrox posted:

What the hell did they post? I understand it was graphic, but was it significant in any way?

If it was what the ban reason makes me think it was, then it was most likely a drone video of Russian solider dying a messy death in combat. Gruesome, but not especially significant.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Storkrasch posted:

It's hard to see Armenia thriving while being in conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan. In the long term, moving closer to the west is probably the best option for Armenia.

With a weak Russia and a somewhat reawakened west, now would probably be the time to make that transition, but it will be difficult. Georgia will be interesting for similar reasons.

If Ukraine is wildly successful we might see major changes in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Not sure what capacity Russia has for reacting to those changes anymore.

Armenia can't really cozy up with the west due to both geography and because the west cares about Turkey 100 times more than it could ever care about Armenia, which closes a lot of doors.

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Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Quixzlizx posted:

The OP's point is that Armenia isn't worth pissing off Turkey from the West's perspective, regardless of whether or not it's a good geopolitical strategy for Armenia itself.

Indeed. For what its worth, I get the impression that Turkey is perfectly happy with Armenia shifting to the west, so long as Turkey's interests aren't harmed. A humiliated and dependant Armenia suits them fine. The fact that Russia loses out is a nice cherry on top.

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