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How much longer is Twitter going to last?
A few weeks
A few months
A few years
About as long as the rest of humanity
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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Sodomy Hussein posted:

This entire thing has been Elon scoring own goal after own goal on himself, and has not been without consequences. It's not great for Elon when it looks like he forced himself into a situation where he overpaid for an already troubled company, and his immediate, overdramatic mismanagement is causing the ad revenue to freeze up while he does a very public Trump impersonation. Twitter may implode within a matter of weeks at this point.

I think people are underestimating the degree to which this contagion could spread. Remember: Elon is the world's richest person because he has a massive stake in Tesla. Tesla stock has taken a beating, but it trades at about 60 times earnings today. For reference, the S&P trades about 20.

That basically means people are paying three times as much for each dollar of current earnings from Tesla as they pay on average. That means, in essence, Tesla's stock price currently has a completely massive "Elon Musk" premium: fanboys believe that tesla is going to earn scads more money in the future because of the brilliance of Elon Musk. Tesla also really sells its cars (and earns its current earnings) based on a similar effect - a lot of people buying it because Autopilot is going to "work" someday.

Elon is very very good at creating a self-image of himself as a techno visionary who will do great things in the future even if that future keeps being a little farther in the future than predicted, every time. Elon is currently taking a sledgehammer to that; and the more he does that, the more Tesla's share price will crumble and the less people are going to trust the cars in the first place enough to buy them.

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Yeah that letter sends a very clear message that working at twitter will literally place you in danger. If you aren't shoved back into an office to increase your covid exposure, you will be ordered to work ridiculous hours that degrade your mental health on stupid projects proposed and instantly killed by the worst boss in the world. You will also be ordered to assume the substantial legal and financial risk associated with his terrible decisions and build a record of professional failure. He can't actually tell people to quit, so he's laying all this out in the clearest possible terms and hoping the engineers are smart enough to put two and two together

the letter also sends a very clear message that you should put in writing requests to your boss that you need to follow the law and get fired for that email (keep a copy) and should then sue

which is very clearly the author's goal as well (props to them, about to be a good lawyer looking for a job, someone should hire them)

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Your business which just lost all its legal and compliance heads

dont worry when the FTC comes knocking and says we are going to fine twitter into oblivion and fine everyone who approved this, i am sure they will listen to elon musk saying "no, see, the engineers self-certified, not me or my lawyers, fine them"

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Ghost Leviathan posted:

And just imagine how Musk is going to react to an actual problem he can't ignore.

by tweeting about it


wait…

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

also, everyone who can write code drop what you're doing

i am sure there is nothing that might attract your attention, say, starting this weekend

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Jaxyon posted:

Pretty much. Already seeing the "this must be on purpose!" cope.

No, folks. Getting rich is mainly luck.

Our economy just makes people basically gods based on random chance and they will in part run your lives.

its not entirely random chance, which goes into why this is happening

elon got to be insanely rich by repeatedly running giant, stupid risks and having all of them pay out perfectly. this is not praise: tons of people do this and by luck it works out for someone, for a while.

right now he's repeating that process and whoops it turns out it was all just basically luck that his terrible company got aquired by paypal, and then his brazen accounting fraud at tesla didn't get caught, and then when he got a pay package that was "if i triple the price of the stock i get like a quarter of it" and managed to do that, and somehow got tesla to be a meme stock enough it got insanely high

then, uh, the d20 stopped rolling natural 20s every time

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Epic High Five posted:

If true, what's that mean for him if the era of low interest on infinite free money for speculation is done and over with?



note that based on the p/e multiple this has a whole lot more falling to do

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

nine-gear crow posted:

I mean that was literally what he spent that $44 billion to do: unban the Babylon Bee. The Bee getting banned for being a source of transphobic horse poo poo was THE inciting incident for his Twitter buy, so I'm actually kind of surprised it's taken him this long to break the shackles around his favorite outlet for all the frustration he's working through because his wife left him for a trans woman and took his kids away from him.

i dont think he's all that broken up over the kids

but the rest is dead-on, he probably only finally figured out who to order to do it that he hadn't already fired

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

lol it's now the top headline on wapo that millions await the collapse of twitter

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Sure enough, he’s also lifted Twitter’s general ban on misgendering entirely

look he's working on the worlds most effective ban on misgendering people on Twitter

and correctly gendering them on Twitter, for that matter

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

Twitter was not the collateral for the loans used to buy it in the first place, they don't let even Elon Musk do that. The collateral was some of his other assets, most likely Tesla stock.

No, that's what a leveraged buyout is. The company you're buying is collateral for the loans.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

I tried to google around and figure out what he was using for collateral in this case, and he has a history of using tesla stock for that purpose, but no one seems to be quite sure what it was here. Sorry!

He previously ALSO had a "margin loan" which was a loan against his Tesla stock. The stock dropped so much he would have been insta -liquidated when it closed so he dropped that part and just sold the Tesla stock directly. The remaining loans are secured by twitter (it doesn't seem that musk is directly liable for them).

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

PhazonLink posted:

isnt there a classic banking/fin joke of you owe the bank 10 000$s, the bank owns you. You owe the bank millions or billions, you own the bank?

why wouldnt this apply to Musk and his amazing dumpster fire?

banks have heard this one too, which is why they limit their exposure to any one creditor (until they gently caress up and don't)

the $13b is split enough ways this isn't great but not bank-ending, especially since they have collateral

evilweasel fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Nov 24, 2022

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Space Cadet Omoly posted:

Again, I do not understand why Musk gets to keep Twitter when he paid for it with money he does not have and will never be able to pay back.

he only managed to borrow $13b of the purchase price

he's out $20b-30b of actual money out of his pocket (the difference is based on how much of the equity he was able to sell to other suckers, which I don't know offhand and don't know if its public)

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

and yeah, when he can't pay back the loan, he loses twitter and the banks own it

he will pay about $1.25b-$1.75b per year for the privilege of staving off the banks until the inevitable turning over the keys to the bank. all in all, he will be out a very considerable amount of money for his year or two loving around with twitter.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Discendo Vox posted:

Is this closer to the leveraged buyout/firesale scenario?

this would be doubling down on the purchase, throwing an additional $13b (maybe he can secure a discount) after the previous bad money. but it would delever the company because it would eliminate all funded debt, so as long as twitter could generate positive cash flow it wouldn't need to go bankrupt

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Young Freud posted:

So...

A lot happened last night.

Basically, Kanye followed up his appearance on Infowars by posting "his" logo for his 2024 presidential run, which was the Raelian swastika and Star Of David hybrid. Apparently, Musk DMed him, to which Kanye posted the DMs, which have the same tone as Grimes trying to talk down his transphobia a few years ago. The posts got taken down in violation, to which Ye tweeted about leaving Twitter and added a parting shot of an unflattering photo of Musk in his swimming trunks. Some time during the night, Musk permanently suspended Kanye, which wasn't lost on no one since Ye's return to Twitter was heavily publicized.

In addition, Parler pulled out of their deal to sell the company to Ye, apparently the antisemitism was too great for them.

parler pulled out because ye has no money, they just chose to announce it yesterday to try and imply it was because of the hitler thing

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Bel Shazar posted:

Hard disagree with the first bit. My org has fully embraced remote work, unlimited pto, and no set hours. It took about a year to realize they really really meant it, but it's way better than the finite but liberal PTO I had before.

Here's why it's not: because when you quit you get zero accrued days paid out.

This is the primary reason for moving to unlimited PTO, incidentally.

evilweasel fucked around with this message at 15:54 on Dec 3, 2022

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

lobster shirt posted:

are clients bound by attorney-client privilege? i would think elon is free to say whatever he wants. or am i misunderstanding you?

elon is free to waive the attorney-client privilege, yes

it would probably be good for him to listen to legal advice about what will waive it and if that is a good idea

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

haveblue posted:

No, it just means he still owns a very small amount of Twitter. Not enough to stop Musk from doing anything, but a bit. It’s probably a very small portion of his net worth, he would have made out like a bandit when Twitter originally went public a decade ago

He rolled a billion dollars of equity over instead of take the cash. It's a minimum of 20% of his net worth.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Agents are GO! posted:

Don't leave, make them ban you. Then appeal it. We are far past the point where account numbers or advertiser angst is going to have any effect, it'd not a publicly-traded company any more - there's no shareholders or board of directors to reign Elon in.

Making them ban you makes just a little more work for the moderation team and costs Elon money.

the real thing to do is troll elon personally until he, personally, bans you instead of doing something useful with his time like finding $1.2 billion to pay his interest

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

I AM GRANDO posted:

Will he use the results to develop a list of people to ban?

god I hope so

he is very Not Mad

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604623424164282368?s=46&t=qt6DvhdnlPz9O4X6wXksiA

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

if he loses the poll there's a non-zero chance he yanks out the metaphorical server power plug

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604628761395138561?s=46&t=oB53NGl0k9fUGZac3QXDhg

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

I AM GRANDO posted:

Yeah, it would be sad if he installs some boring competent guy who keeps the company chugging and just retires to shitpost and lose a little money every year. He has accomplished what he set out to do, which was ban anyone making fun of him and let trump come back. He should have to sweat it out and gently caress up until the site dies.

he still will own the company

he'll just fire the new ceo in a week

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

shutting down twitter instantly bankrupts it and is probably some sort of fiduciary duty violation entitling the bondholders to sue him, as well as the minority investors

also just remember that elon spent $44b on twitter because he's addicted to it and ever since he bought it all of twitter has been relentlessly trolling him

its like if your favorite toy took all your money and then spent all its time following you around yelling about how it hosed your mother

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Young Freud posted:

Looks like who Musk puts in charge won't matter. In Musk's own words, Twitter has been in a bankruptcy state since May and he's looking at ending the company
https://twitter.com/richsignorelli/status/1604637381696552960?t=qLdWPjaJsV9bb6X_KQ6bxw&s=19


unfortunately this is just not true, there is no way that elon would put twitter into chapter 11

the basic reason is that until he does, he controls twitter, and he can use that power to force the banks to (a) give him a release of all claims; (b) let him keep some of his equity.

it is also not clear that twitter would be worth less than the debt if musk was not in charge (it is one thing to own and control twitter, it is another thing to effectively own it but have elon musk control it, which is part of why the debt trades at such a discount) so he'd make an effort to sell it for some amount over the debt first

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Main Paineframe posted:

Musk has been threatening Twitter bankruptcy constantly since he bought it. It's just bluster.

It's one of his management tactics. The threat of bankruptcy is one of his favorite sticks. He tells people that they have to accept his whims uncritically and do whatever he wants without complaining, because only he and his grand plans can save the company from bankruptcy. It "motivates" staff with a sense of impending crisis to justify his crunchtime demands, it convinces investors and stakeholders that maybe his sudden drastic changes are necessary, and when the threatened bankruptcy doesn't happen he can claim it's because his genius moves saved the company.

He said it to Twitter staff after the buyout, insisting that they had to accept the massive layoffs and "hardcore" scheduling demands or else Twitter would go bankrupt. But he's used that threat frequently at his other companies too. At the end of 2021, he told SpaceX employees that SpaceX faced a "risk of bankruptcy" if it couldn't meet a Starship launch rate of "once every two weeks" in 2022...and then demanded that everyone cancel their Thanksgiving vacations and return to the office immediately to do crunchtime on engine production issues. Well, we're at the end of 2022, and Starship's launch rate this year was zero, yet bankruptcy is nowhere to be seen. It was likely just an empty threat to convince employees that canceling Thanksgiving was actually necessary and not just Elon's whim. He's done similar things at Tesla a few times too. "The company will collapse if you don't cancel all your vacations and start sleeping on the factory floor till this project is done" really just seems to be his way of motivating the workforce.

to be fair tesla was on the cusp of collapse a lot of times and was probably saved by accounting fraud

the real question is did they use their huge stock price spike to sell enough equity to cover up their accounting fraud and reduce debt to survive now their stock price is cratering, i haven't gotten around to poking through their SEC filings in a while since it seemed clear they were out of the woods

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

koolkal posted:

May also be a ploy to keep the debt held by the banks at low values. Since he has to service that debt, the debt itself being undervalued makes it easier for him to buy it himself at a lower price, in theory. The banks are already having trouble selling it and they have 0 interest in owning Twitter if it defaults so will be interesting to see what happens there.

yeah the best way out of this for musk (if he still wants to own twitter) is to buy out the bank debt at a discount

they may be institutionally unwilling to get so obviously and publicly fleeced however and insist on something that makes it painful for him and/or gives them an equity kicker they can pretend has value

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

you know i really thought elon was doing that poll as cover for what he actually planned on doing, but the incredible levels of Not Mad that have been erupting from his tweets since then have me convinced that he actually expected to win the poll, probably overwhelmingly

which just owns, poor baby went to twitter for affirmation and it utterly shat on him and now tesla stock continues tumbling

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002


it actually makes a lot of sense that meta stock would jump on this news, because the primary downside to owning meta stock is that every publicly traded share combined can't tell zuck no, and currently zuck is wasting all your money on the metaverse

so him using money to give it to you instead of lighting it on fire is really good news for you, the investor

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Main Paineframe posted:

Musk did heavily reward the loyalists who were able to win his favor. When things go badly, he reacts by firing someone nearby, but the people who've been able to deal with him well have typically been able to make sure that someone else is standing closer to him when he flies into a rage. It's just that Twitter has been going so badly that Elon has been purging all but his most favored flunkies. Even Alex Spiro, who's been his favorite lawyer since the "pedo guy" days, got ousted.

Crawford did manage to rocket through the ranks, going from director of product management to a top product exec directly leading Elon's favorite projects. But when even the Tesla favorites he brought with him to Twitter are getting booted, her long-term chances were slim.

technically alex spiro, a highly qualified commercial litigator, just got fired from being a de facto twitter officer which was an absurd thing for him to be doing in the first place because no part of being a good commercial litigator means you know how to run a business at all

he's still musk's personal lawyer

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Baudolino posted:

Is there any reason why Musk can`t just have his Tweets be forcibly shown to every Twitter account?

no, which is why he did that

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Name Change posted:

There was a publicly documented push by him to make sure his tweets had maximum engagement, because they were cratering in popularity.

more specifically, because they were cratering in popularity and the person who told him that it was because he was less popular rather than it being a bug in twitter's code was fired on the spot in a rage (literally screaming "you're fired, you're fired"), so the remaining engineers "fixed" the "problem"

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Owling Howl posted:

That's one thing but he also 100% thought it was a random employee he could humiliate in public and then assumed his disability was some sort of scam. He hasn't tipped his hand like this since the pedo tweet or his infantile feud with the SEC.

As the worlds richest person he is a very fitting figurehead for our economic system.

a part of the reason he's in a permanent snit is he lost the top spot

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

https://twitter.com/andrewdesiderio/status/1638945871642370062?s=46&t=wPR2V011kgEbNb_hIr0CWw

for the record this is perhaps not an ideal answer if you are trying to avoid Congress banning your app

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Morroque posted:

The one thing a return to non-Musk ownership will do for Twitter is that the advertisers will likely attempt a comeback. What they want can only be done on a centralized platform. If any one Mastodon instance implements ads, and people don't like it, then those users will just move accounts to an instance that doesn't. There genuinely is no room for advertisers anywhere but Twitter.

except Facebook, Google, apple, and countless other ways to reach people online. even this website if you were really desperate!

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Alkydere posted:

But...how does this hide the lawsuit? I realize public opinion is not the court of law but how does making everyone think of Doge again, reminding them about Dogecoin, hide it!?

How Is this man this stupid? HOW? I mean I understand on an intellectual level and yet I cannot accept it on an emotional level.

when you search for "elon" and "doge" instead of getting a news article on how he's a scammer, you get a news article on a stupid website thing and don't find out about the scammer thing

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Professor Beetus posted:

So uh, he's trying to ensure that his lawyers can't argue for jury nullification? How does "hiding" it from public view actually benefit him?

he cares more about his public image than he does about the chances of winning this lawsuit specifically, because the vast majority of his wealth is due to convincing rubes to buy tesla stock at hilarious multiples to its actual value

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Name Change posted:

He probably exceeds Greenwald, at the moment I can't think of any instance of Greenwald koolaid-manning through journalistic ethical lines to doxx a narcissistic billionaire's perceived enemies.

greenwald doxxed an nsa leaker, to the federal government itself

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evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

StumblyWumbly posted:

It's pure marketing, so everyone who thinks of Twitter as a dumpster fire will now think of X-Social, formerly known as Twitter, is a massive dumpster fire.

Similar to how Facebook became Meta.

Google becoming Alphabet made more sense, because they have Youtube which should be on equal footing to Google, but it probably wasn't worth whatever they paid.

this is assuming a lot more thought and a lot less drugs than actually went into this idea

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