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joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
Imagine the following unlikely but possible scenarios:

Ecuador beats Senegal by a larger margin than the dutch beat Qatar

Iran and US tie

Saudi Arabia wins at least one more and Argentina goes through 2nd

France 1st, Tunisia 2nd

Spain and Germany tie, Japan beats Costa Rica, Japan and Spain tie so that it is Japan first Spain 2nd

Belgium 1st, Canada 2nd

Brazil 1st Switzerland 2nd

Portugal 1st, Korea 2nd

that leads to one side of the bracket being:

Ecuador x Iran

Saudi Arabia x Tunisia

Japan X Canada

Brazil x S Korea

While the other side would be

England x Netherlands

France X Argentina

Belgium x Spain

Portugal x Switzerland


Now I know what I am rooting for these remaining games. Imagine England gets through Netherlands, France and Spain and loses to Ecuador in the final?

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Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Has a team ever failed to get out of their group if they won 2 games?

I'm sure it's happened, but I'm drawing a blank

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Has a team ever failed to get out of their group if they won 2 games?

I'm sure it's happened, but I'm drawing a blank

The last time there was a group where three teams all finished on 6 points was 1994, when there were two groups that finished like that, and in both cases all three teams went through because at the time it was a 24-team tournament and some third-placed teams went through to the knockouts.

mmkay
Oct 21, 2010

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Has a team ever failed to get out of their group if they won 2 games?

I'm sure it's happened, but I'm drawing a blank

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup
Group 2.

EDIT: Also the last matches in group weren't simultaneous then. The Austria - Germany fuckery (which eliminated Chile) led to the change of rules.

mmkay fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Nov 26, 2022

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012

Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Has a team ever failed to get out of their group if they won 2 games?

I'm sure it's happened, but I'm drawing a blank

1982, Algeria was the last time it happened.

All teams beat Chile. Algeria beat West Germany, West Germany beat Austria, Austria beat Algeria. Algeria eliminated on goal differential.

e:fb

Coohoolin
Aug 5, 2012

Oor Coohoolie.

mmkay posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup
Group 2.

EDIT: Also the last matches in group weren't simultaneous then. The Austria - Germany fuckery (which eliminated Chile) led to the change of rules.

Is this the infamous one that made them switch to the last group games being simultaneously played

Edit: didn't catch your edit

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

joepinetree posted:

1982, Algeria was the last time it happened.

All teams beat Chile. Algeria beat West Germany, West Germany beat Austria, Austria beat Algeria. Algeria eliminated on goal differential.

e:fb

Also the moment that led to the rule change where final group stage matches are played simultaneously. Algeria had already played their match the day before and Austria and West Germany knew that a 1-0 West Germany win would send them both through. West Germany scored early on and then both teams did nothing for the remainder of the 90 minutes, and FIFA subsequently changed the rule.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Coohoolin posted:

Is this the infamous one that made them switch to the last group games being simultaneously played

Edit: didn't catch your edit

It has its own Wikipedia page and everything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n

joepinetree
Apr 5, 2012
You also had something similar in 1978 when the semifinal was in a group format, and Argentina played after Brazil knowing exactly how many goals they had to score to make it to the final.

Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards
In 1990, Mick McCarthy and Ruud Gullit agreed to play out a draw after Ireland equalized with 20 minutes to go. Put both teams through and meant lots were drawn to decide the positioning.

Barry Shitpeas
Dec 17, 2003

there is no need
to be upset

Winner POTM July 2013

vyelkin posted:

It has its own Wikipedia page and everything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disgrace_of_Gij%C3%B3n

Sure hope nothing like that happens in CUM 2026 with 3 team groups so the last matches can't be simultaneous

Porrima
Oct 18, 2012

The world is fucked
and so are you.

Thanks, humanity

Barry Shitpeas posted:

Sure hope nothing like that happens in CUM 2026 with 3 team groups so the last matches can't be simultaneous

I noticed yesterday that this had appeared on the CUM wikipedia page:

"In response to fears of collusion, CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani commented in April 2022 that FIFA was still considering 12 groups of 4.[15]"

I don't know if there's a realistic chance, but doing that would save at least a bit of the lovely format

Pook Good Mook
Aug 6, 2013


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Porrima posted:

I noticed yesterday that this had appeared on the CUM wikipedia page:

"In response to fears of collusion, CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani commented in April 2022 that FIFA was still considering 12 groups of 4.[15]"

I don't know if there's a realistic chance, but doing that would save at least a bit of the lovely format

I expect this will be the outcome because it puts the burden of an extra game on the players and they don't care about them.

Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

Number of teams won’t be a problem if they just have full knockout rounds.

Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards

Porrima posted:

I noticed yesterday that this had appeared on the CUM wikipedia page:

"In response to fears of collusion, CONCACAF President Victor Montagliani commented in April 2022 that FIFA was still considering 12 groups of 4.[15]"

I don't know if there's a realistic chance, but doing that would save at least a bit of the lovely format

How would the knockouts work? Last 32 and going back to some third place teams getting through? That would suck. It's been a real drawback of the expanded Euros. I'd rather see it go up to 32. There'd be a lot of poo poo in there, but it would still better than it is now.

Porrima
Oct 18, 2012

The world is fucked
and so are you.

Thanks, humanity

Mickolution posted:

How would the knockouts work? Last 32 and going back to some third place teams getting through? That would suck. It's been a real drawback of the expanded Euros. I'd rather see it go up to 32. There'd be a lot of poo poo in there, but it would still better than it is now.

I assume there would still be the "extra" round of knockouts, so two best of 12 and then 8 out of the 12 best threes.

That would be bad, but I personally think it's better than having groups of 3 and only 2 matches in the groups and only one match that might matter + the collusion possibilities of the last match.

Neither of these are good, I personally would prefer groups of 4. Other people might feel other way. I personally feel it's important teams who get to the world cup can have at least 3 matches.

Porrima fucked around with this message at 00:39 on Nov 27, 2022

Mickolution
Oct 1, 2005

Ballers...I put numbers on the boards
There's very little jeopardy in the Euros these days, with the same system. Big teams can afford to lose a game and still usually go through. Don't know which is best, tbh.

whypick1
Dec 18, 2009

Just another jackass on the Internet
I started watching this clip then all of the sudden all of the dogs in my neighborhood started barking loudly:

https://twitter.com/NegarMortazavi/status/1596377910629335041

webmeister
Jan 31, 2007

The answer is, mate, because I want to do you slowly. There has to be a bit of sport in this for all of us. In the psychological battle stakes, we are stripped down and ready to go. I want to see those ashen-faced performances; I want more of them. I want to be encouraged. I want to see you squirm.

whypick1 posted:

I started watching this clip then all of the sudden all of the dogs in my neighborhood started barking loudly:

https://twitter.com/NegarMortazavi/status/1596377910629335041

Klinsmann, more like Klansmann

NinpoEspiritoSanto
Oct 22, 2013




That feels like a really uncharitable read of what Klinsmann is actually saying? He's obviously talking about their football culture it's like saying it's Spanish culture to be a bunch of diving play acting twats

brocked
Oct 25, 2005

All shall love me and despair!
I'd also imagine plenty of Persians actually wouldn't appreciate being called "brown athletes"

whypick1
Dec 18, 2009

Just another jackass on the Internet

NinpoEspiritoSanto posted:

That feels like a really uncharitable read of what Klinsmann is actually saying? He's obviously talking about their football culture it's like saying it's Spanish culture to be a bunch of diving play acting twats

Including just one mostly-white country to go along with his other examples would've gone a long way to making that point instead of "brown people don't know how to play football the 'proper' way".

For example, just picking a country at random...how about Germany?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y85r5clOlCs

Loving Africa Chaps
Dec 3, 2007


We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

lol apparently the Mexican fans were chanting about the Falklands at the match plus associated shithousery on twitter

https://twitter.com/DiabloRojo111/status/1596211241751560196?t=i8zgRPiNFabXez0BAPq7IA&s=19

Shame they couldn't score

whypick1
Dec 18, 2009

Just another jackass on the Internet
"We demonstrated who hosed whom"

Thanks for the wonderful content Canada

Eau de MacGowan
May 12, 2009

BRASIL HEXA
2026 tá logo aí
surprising nobody, serbia done a racism and left a "kosovo is serbia" flag in their locker room for an indentured servant to find

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
Hello everyone, two matches have been played in every group which means we're getting a sense of how the groups are shaping up. Surprisingly however, not very many teams have already qualified for the knockouts and not many teams have been eliminated. Let's chat about who can qualify from where and how.


Final matches:
Ecuador vs. Senegal
Netherlands vs. Qatar

The Netherlands qualify as long as they get a point against Qatar. If they lose to Qatar and Senegal beat Ecuador, either the Netherlands or Ecuador are eliminated, subject to goal difference and then further tiebreakers all the way to fair play rules, which eliminated Senegal last World Cup iirc.

Ecuador qualify as long as they get a point against Senegal. They are eliminated if they lose to Senegal, provided the Netherlands don't lose to Qatar by enough goals to put them below Ecuador on goal difference.

Senegal qualify if they beat Ecuador. If they draw against Ecuador they have to hope the Netherlands lose to Qatar by enough goals to put them below Senegal on goal difference. If they lose to Ecuador they are eliminated.

Qatar are eliminated.


Final matches:
Iran vs. USA
England vs. Wales

All four teams can still qualify.

England qualify as long as they get a point against Wales. If they lose to Wales by a large enough margin, they can be eliminated on goal difference depending on the outcome of the other match.

Iran qualify if they beat the USA. If they draw, they qualify as long as Wales do not beat England. If they draw and Wales beat England by a small margin, Iran are eliminated, but if they draw but Wales beat England by a large enough margin that they push England below Iran on goal difference then Iran still qualify. If they lose, they are eliminated.

The USA qualify if they beat Iran. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.

Wales are eliminated in most scenarios but can still qualify if they beat England and score enough goals to move above England on goal difference, in which case they could finish 2nd behind the USA if the USA beat Iran, or second behind Iran if Iran beat the USA, or they can even finish 1st if Iran and the USA draw and Wales beat England by enough goals to move ahead of England on goal difference.


Final matches:
Poland vs. Argentina
Saudi Arabia vs. Mexico

All four teams can still qualify.

Poland qualify with a point against Argentina. If they lose, they still qualify if Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw. They are eliminated if they lose and Saudi Arabia or Mexico win the game by enough goals to move ahead of Poland on goal difference.

Argentina qualify if they beat Poland. If they draw, they will still qualify if Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw, but are eliminated if Saudi Arabia or Mexico win the game by enough goals to move ahead of Argentina on goal difference. If they lose, they are eliminated.

Saudi Arabia qualify if they beat Mexico. If they draw, they qualify if Poland beat Argentina or if Argentina beat Poland by enough goals to move Poland below Saudi Arabia on goal difference, but they are eliminated if Argentina and Poland draw or if Argentina beat Poland by only 1 or 2 goals. If they lose, they are eliminated.

Mexico qualify if they beat Saudi Arabia and Poland beat Argentina, or if Argentina and Poland draw and Mexico beat Saudi Arabia by enough goals to move ahead of Argentina on goal difference. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.


Final matches:
Tunisia vs. France
Australia vs. Denmark

France have qualified.

Australia qualify if they beat Denmark, or if they draw with Denmark and France beat Tunisia, or if they draw with Denmark and France and Tunisia draw. They can even win the group if they beat Denmark and Tunisia beat France by enough goals to move ahead of France on goal difference. They are eliminated if they lose to Denmark, or if they draw and Tunisia beat France.

Denmark qualify if they beat Australia and Tunisia do not beat France by more goals than Denmark's margin of victory. Any other result and they are eliminated.

Tunisia qualify if they beat France and Denmark do not beat Australia by the same or greater number of goals than Tunisia's margin of victory. Any other result and they are eliminated.


Final matches:
Japan vs. Spain
Costa Rica vs. Germany

Spain qualify with a point against Japan. If they lose to Japan and Costa Rica beat Germany or Germany beat Costa Rica by enough goals to overtake Spain on goal difference, they are eliminated.

Japan qualify if they beat Spain. If they draw, they still qualify if Costa Rica and Germany also draw, but they can be eliminated by a Costa Rica win or a German win that moves them ahead of Japan on goal difference or goals scored.

Costa Rica qualify if they beat Germany. If they draw against Germany, then they are eliminated unless Spain beat Japan by enough goals to move Japan below Costa Rica on goal difference. If they lose to Germany, they are eliminated.

Germany qualify if they beat Costa Rica, unless Japan beat Spain, but if Japan beat Spain Germany can still qualify but only if Japan score so many goals that they push Spain below Germany on goal difference. Any other result and Germany are eliminated.

(It is still possible for both Spain and Germany to be eliminated, which would happen if both Japan and Costa Rica win.)


Final matches:
Croatia vs. Belgium
Canada vs. Morocco

Croatia qualify with a win or draw against Belgium. They are eliminated if they lose to Belgium and Morocco get a point against Canada, but can still qualify with a loss if Canada beat Morocco by enough goals to keep Morocco below Croatia on goal difference.

Morocco qualify with a point against Canada. If they lose to Canada, they still qualify if Croatia beat Belgium or if Croatia and Belgium draw, but are eliminated if they lose and Belgium beat Croatia by a small enough margin to keep Croatia ahead of Morocco on goal difference.

Belgium qualify if they beat Croatia. If they draw against Croatia, they still qualify if Canada beat Morocco by enough goals to push Morocco below Belgium on goal difference, but are otherwise eliminated. If they lose, they are eliminated.

Canada are eliminated.


Final matches:
Serbia vs. Switzerland
Cameroon vs. Brazil

Brazil have qualified.

Switzerland qualify if they beat Serbia. If they draw, they still qualify as long as Cameroon do not beat Brazil by enough goals to move ahead of Switzerland on goal difference. If they lose, they are eliminated.

Cameroon qualify if they beat Brazil and Switzerland draw against Serbia. If they beat Brazil and Serbia beat Switzerland, then Brazil still win the group but second place is decided by goal difference between Cameroon and Serbia. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.

Serbia qualify if they beat Switzerland and Brazil and Cameroon draw. If they beat Switzerland and Cameroon beat Brazil, then Brazil still win the group but second place is decided by goal difference between Serbia and Cameroon. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.


Final matches:
South Korea vs. Portugal
Ghana vs. Uruguay

Portugal have qualified.

Ghana qualify if they beat Uruguay. If they draw, they still qualify as long as South Korea do not beat Portugal by enough goals to move ahead of Ghana on goal difference. If they lose, they are eliminated.

South Korea qualify if they beat Portugal and Ghana draw against Uruguay, provided South Korea win by a margin large enough to move ahead of Ghana on goal difference. If they beat Portugal and Uruguay beat Ghana, then second place is decided by goal difference between South Korea and Uruguay. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.

Uruguay qualify if they beat Ghana and South Korea do not beat Portugal. If both Uruguay and South Korea win, second place is decided by goal difference between the two of them. If they draw or lose, they are eliminated.



I think I got all that right but I just wrote all this in one sitting based on looking at the tables and fixtures so I probably screwed up somewhere. A lot of these scenarios are pretty unlikely but it's very cool that so many teams still have something to play for in their final game.

psyer
Mar 26, 2013
Someone from Reddit did an outcome chart.

Group A


Group B


Group C


Group D


Group E


Group F


Group G


Group H

Butterfly Valley
Apr 19, 2007

I am a spectacularly bad poster and everyone in the Schadenfreude thread hates my guts.
Those own

Backdoor Delivery
Nov 15, 2004

one cool dude


2 Time TRP Sack Race Champion
The World Cup is halfway over

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




Qatar beating Netherlands by multiple goals to send Ecuador and Senegal through would own, but Qatar is terrible

Need more non-Europe sides to go through

ilmucche
Mar 16, 2016

I want croatia and belgium to draw, and for canada to win 2-0 or 3-1

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

sticksy posted:

Next Leeds manager?

Hervé’s jawn only works in international competitions

Alctel
Jan 16, 2004

I love snails


Dunno where to put this but thanks to the guy who does the rundown of the refs in the matchday threads, I find it interesting.

the sex ghost
Sep 6, 2009
We all love refman

Vegetable
Oct 22, 2010

thank you everyone who’s made an effortpost so far. i love world cup and euro season on this forum.

whypick1
Dec 18, 2009

Just another jackass on the Internet
Oh neat: Germany-Costa Rica will have the World Cup's first all-female ref crew

chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Alctel posted:

Dunno where to put this but thanks to the guy who does the rundown of the refs in the matchday threads, I find it interesting.

I'm glad! I have been a little :effort: on them because I was too lazy to do them the night before games so it meant being up at 3:30 am to try to get them in before the 4am kickoff lol. In past years they've been more in depth. I'll probably pick up the steam in the knockout rounds and post a little more. I referee (there used to be a few others around here too, Trin being the most well known, but I haven't seen many of the regulars from the old Refereeing thread around much) and find the following the referees to be a fun thing. While most of the forum probably knows the UEFA guys fairly well from the Champions League, you don't always know about the ones from other confederations, especially after some of the higher profile ones like Irmatov retired after last cycle.

whypick1 posted:

Oh neat: Germany-Costa Rica will have the World Cup's first all-female ref crew

The assignments have been getting announced later and later, it's clear there's been a lot of horse trading going on the last few days. For example, tomorrow's Poland Argentina game is going to be the first one that breaks confederation neutrality. This is the first match day where the assignments started coming later and the leading theory seems to be that the RefComm was originally going to hold to confederation neutrality (possibly Elfath from CONCACAF) and Argentina said "No, absolutely not", so they got a UEFA person that both seem content with.

But this... oh boy. When they brought Frappart to the tournament, she had to get a match. You can't make a big deal about bringing her and then only let her hold up the sign boards as the 4th. Seems like the original plan was the opener but that got squashed. So then it was "well, lets find a dead rubber". The problem is there is only usually one, if any, true dead rubbers. I can think of some matches they were probably thinking she could go into but then upsets kept happening. So... what to do? I think they got lucky Argentina threw a stink about the ref, because now you can get away for confederation neutrality for a bit (my guess is it comes back in the knockouts but you never know), which opened the door for this. But... mixed ARs to make an all female crew? And to not use Kathryn Nesbit if you are dead set on that? I just... the best outcome here is that Germany pastes Costa Rica, if this is a competitive game it could be really bad news.

More words on Thursday, I'll have to go do more research on this.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011
Just gonna echo that I also find the refchat fascinating, especially seeing how much horse trading is likely going on behind the scenes. Thanks for putting the effort in!

Digital Jedi
May 28, 2007

Fallen Rib
Yea refchat is pretty fascinating. Didn't know there is so much that goes into it aside from"hey you ref this game"

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chaoslord
Jan 28, 2009

Nature Abhors A Vacuum


Here is something interesting pointed out in a ref forum

https://streamable.com/gxsg01

-France scored the goal
-Conger blew for kickoff
-Immediately after the kickoff, Conger blew for full time.
-VAR got in touch to review the goal

The problem here? (I suspect some of y’all will have spotted it) They kicked off before VAR intervened. Once they kicked off, VAR’s ability to intervene went out the window.

Can’t imagine the crap show that would be about to happen if this change in result mattered. If I am France, I would be appealing this as it’s a matter of fact and not judgment, but since it didn’t change anything FIFA may try to convince them to just let it go and hope it doesn’t really get noticed

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