Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

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Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Femtosecond posted:

I'm curious does anyone sell covered calls regularly? And additionally, not like in a daytrading context, but rather because they are hold the underlying shares for the long term, and are selling covered calls just for some extra income?

I have some positions in some stocks eg. AAPL, MSFT that I have no real plans on selling, and they just sit in my portfolio. I often think about selling covered calls on them. The premiums on OOM options wouldn't be much but it's still something I suppose.

I never do this mostly because I've never done it before and I'm scared I'll mess it up lol.

In general I have no interest in really selling the stock so if the stock price would rise I suppose I'd want to try to buy back the option rather than letting the options get exercised. If anyone in the thread does engage in this sort of covered call use is this what you do as well?

That being said I do want to sell some of these equities in 2023 for [insert various Canadian tax reasons] so it strikes me that I could sell a covered call for Feb '23 and worst case scenario I sell the stock I needed to sell anyway. Could be a good way to try it out.

Edit: Actual worst case scenario would be that the stock drops like a stone but that's more bad for me in general unrelated to the covered call though is there covered call implications here in that one is possibly hindered from panic selling a stock if they are somehow obligated to cover a call they've written? (it kind of seems like a theoretical issue in that in such a case where the underlying stock plunges, the covered call would be surely worthless and easy to buy to close?)

Rather than a pure income generation method, I look at covered calls as a mechanism to force myself to have a exit point and take profits. If this stock goes to $x, would I want to sell it? If yes, then a covered call is a smart move and has the additional benefit of generating premium up front.

# ¿ Dec 14, 2022 15:58

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 11:22

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

After losing 75% of it's value TSLA's P/E is still 35. If it drops another 75% it would be a good value investment.

# ¿ Dec 28, 2022 19:41

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

401k (boring index funds): -9.4%
IRA (actively traded): -2.2%
Individual Invest (actively traded aggressively): +28.9%

So the part of my portfolio that made money is also only part that pays taxes on earnings. Perfect.

Biggest winners were $gogl (dry bulk shipping) $flng (liquid nat gas shipping) $mro (energy) $nvo (pharma diabetes)

Biggest losers were $atos (pharma penny held too long) and Russian index fund (lol, lmao)

Looking forward cash is no long trash. My savings account is now up to 3.3% apr. It's nice to at least have a conservative option that yields more than zero. I expect the market to trade mostly sideways for a while, but that isn't based on anything more than gut feeling. Maybe selling options will continue to serve me well. No particular sector has me extremely excited at the moment. Tech has taken a beating, but as a result its current value proposition is better, not quite ready to try catching that falling knife yet though. Could be good value bargains to be had for the brave this year.

# ¿ Dec 31, 2022 21:13

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

GOOG frightens me with openAI looming. Their profit is based on giving increasing lovely search results to sell a maximum amount of advertiser content. An AI chatbot that does so slightly more efficiently without selling you useless crap is an existential threat.

# ¿ Jan 1, 2023 07:37

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

As someone with a position in Petrobras (Brazil oil): lol, lmao

# ¿ Jan 9, 2023 05:03

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did.

# ¿ Jan 26, 2023 15:06

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

"Don't worry, it'll revert to the mean" - increasingly nervous man (myself)

# ¿ Jan 27, 2023 02:28

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

The puts I sold on INTC before earnings are actually back to neutral. The stock did drop, but dropped an equivalent amount to the premium on selling the put. "Already priced in" theory looking strong.

# ¿ Feb 1, 2023 17:31

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Subvisual Haze posted:

Sold some puts near the money this week to benefit from earnings volatility on VZ and INTC. Pretty boring dividend stocks that I don't expect to drop much more but wouldn't mind owning if they did.

closed both of these today at good profit due to the inexplicable market rally after JPow did exactly what everyone thought he'd do with interest rates.

VZ puts were sold to open at $1.17 and bought to close today at $0.20
INTC puts were sold at $1.24 and bought to close at $0.54

# ¿ Feb 1, 2023 21:44

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

It's beautiful, the dumbest crap is all rocketing to the moon. Bitcoin up around 50% in the last month, Tesla has almost doubled in price in the last month, Meta jumped 22% in one day on average earnings + announcement of a buyback, Intel atm trading higher than it was before it's awful earnings statement. Just the most beautiful fakest economy ever

# ¿ Feb 2, 2023 20:17

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

I bought some T-bills this week for the first time. >4% yield, no default risk, no trading fee, no state taxes on earnings in my taxable account. Also incredibly boring. Nothing in the stock market is really jumping out at me as particularly underpriced or ready to rocket up at the moment though.

# ¿ Feb 10, 2023 05:01

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

I feel like treasuries are currently paying very nice yields and the prospect for marginally additional yields you get from junk bonds do not outweigh their high level of increased risk currently.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2023 03:37

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

My gut level read is that there is a lot of a overlap, but stocks prosper if lower absolute interest rates (less competition from fixed income) while junk bond indexes like decreasing relative interest rates (held bonds revalue higher relative to new bonds). The near zero interest rate + heavy QE environment post 2008 probably did some very strange things to the bond market that might shake out in very strange ways.

Between failure risk, inflation risk and changing interest rates junk bonds have a lot of moving parts.

# ¿ Mar 1, 2023 16:33

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

$PBR Brasil's big oil company baffles me. Another huge quarter's earnings, dividend announced at nearly 10% yield for just the quarter. Yet stock keeps trading around a P/E of 2.2. I know the government changed from Bolso to Lula, but is the market really pricing in that much worry that he'll nationalize the whole company?

# ¿ Mar 2, 2023 21:15

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

My SPY 400 Puts for mid April now +50% (SPY closed at ~392 today). Do I take the profits now or get greedy and hold hoping for further blood in the market.

# ¿ Mar 9, 2023 23:52

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

In what possible reality would a GOP held house pass such a thing?

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 01:18

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Hadlock posted:

Seems pretty efficient way to dry up investment. If you're gonna take on the enormous investment risk, and wait over a year just to keep 60% of the profit, might as well just stick it in a savings account

Seems like an empty useless gesture

Especially when so much of the money made in the market at the moment is from 0dte options trades, it's hilarious and horrifying to imagine what the market would be like if none the of the big players had any incentive to hold stocks long term. Imagine your parent's lifelong accumulated retirement savings trading like Tesla and gaining/losing half its value every month or so.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 01:33

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Vox Nihili posted:

Proposing it now is an empty gesture for his base, yes.

Your idea re: dumping money in savings accounts for fear of taxation reflects a common American trope and is part of why we'll never have reasonably taxed capital gains. Of course if you can make more on a savings account that's where you should put the money, but anything you make from savings is also taxable income.

The intelligent billionare would dump all their funds in a federal tax exempt municipal bond fund like VWALX

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 01:42

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Shear Modulus posted:

we best not repeat the mistakes of the 1940s through 1970s, well known as a period of economic stagnation and disinvestment in the US due to high tax rates

Should work fine as long as we replicate the important precondition "every other industrial economy in the world has been bombed into powder" like the US benefited from post-WW2.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 02:04

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Shear Modulus posted:

My point was that high taxes do not in fact prevent investment. Being the last industrialized country standing isn't a requirement either. China has grown like gangbusters for the last several decades despite not selling the rest of the world material to rebuild after a war

Capital seeks maximum return. The US could have their cake and eat it too post-WW2 by happy virtue of being the only industrialized economy left standing in a global free trade paradigm. But the world economic order that the US profited on, much like the UK before them, is a globalized free trade one. And globalization cuts both ways, capital and costs can flow in and out freely. At this point if the US significantly increased capital investment tax rates, capital investment would happily relocate itself to environments more favorable for maximal investment returns like China or Vietnam or some western corporate tax haven like Ireland.

If we stick with the globalization model, jacking up local tax rates doesn't work, capital just moves abroad. If we want to prevent that we'd need to abandon globalism for protectionism, which in addition to being a lot of work (which seems impossible in our current sclerotic gerontocracy), would result in drastically more expensive consumer goods domestically.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 02:55

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Shear Modulus posted:

De-globalization is in fact happening right now. The energy market, which used to be the most fungible and global commodity market, is now split into two markets. Russia being cut out of the SWIFT network means that they are developing their own alternative that will likely be tightly integrated with Chinese finance. The US just leaned on the netherlands to slap an export ban on the latest chip lithography technology to china, so now companies can't expand their chinese fabs with those new machines even if they wanted to.

In such a splitting global market I would expect the main beneficiaries to be non-aligned trading partners like Brazil, India, or the Southeast Asian sphere. Not at high risk of eating western sanction damage like Russia/China, but also able to pursue an independent economic/foreign policy unlike Europe.

# ¿ Mar 10, 2023 17:42

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Nobody could have predicted that the zero percent interest rates might at some point increase, causing long-duration bonds purchased at zero rates to decrease in value.

# ¿ Mar 12, 2023 21:58

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Bremen posted:

Judging by the fact that treasury bill yields are down like a whole percent in the last five days, I'm guessing for a lot of people the answer was there.

That was my read too of the quite remarkable change in yields across all treasury durations today. Treasury yields rapidly decreasing means a lot of people are suddenly buying them up. Which is a smart move that probably should have been done several months ago, but nothing like a bankrun to wake the public up.

# ¿ Mar 13, 2023 23:38

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Green corporate activism (like the Engine No 1 saga at Exxon) has been an unexpected short term boost for some oil investors. Discouraging further investment into drilling both restricts market supply (increasing price) as well as encouraging the companies to return more of those un-invested profits to shareholders in the form of dividends/buybacks.

# ¿ Mar 28, 2023 15:24

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Strong Sauce posted:

If the US cannot meet its obligation in paying back it's debts... what makes anyone think we'll still have an economy in a week?

The correct answer.

Treasuries are the basis of everything in the domestic and most of the global economy. The balance sheets of banks are built on using them as assets to make loans. The banking system would collapse, dogs and cats living together etc.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 14:24

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Pretending treasuries are somehow less valuable relative to other debt is its own form of dumb political theatre though. Remember back when Moody's downgraded US treasuries to lower AA ratings during an earlier debt ceiling theatre event during the Obama years? Implying that if treasuries did in fact fail, somehow corporate/state/muni AAA debt denominated in US dollars was "safer" and would somehow not also meltdown. Just complete birdbrain logic. If treasuries go down, it's hard to imagine what financial instruments wouldn't meltdown with them.

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 14:48

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

If you think the dollar is not going to die: continue as you are or if you want to try timing the market wait for panic to set in, then buy the dip/sell options on treasuries to profit off the implied volatility.

If you think the dollar is going to die: invest in bottled water, preserved food, ammunition, bunkers, and gasoline with which to pay off Lord Humongous

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 15:39

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Nessus posted:

Can we take a contrarian option and somehow invest in becoming a gayboy berserker?

Expect competition from the hustle and grind crowd

# ¿ Apr 10, 2023 15:49

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

mrmcd posted:

Is BUD really taking a 4% haircut for no reason than dumb poo poo right wingers are mad they hired a trans person?

If there is an impact on their current sales we wouldn't expect to see that until their q2 earnings are reported in August though.

Outside of the hoopla, BUD was a stock trading at its yearly high, up almost 50% from its low 6 months ago. A reversion to the mean seems sensible enough.

I'm considering shorting it, although shorting stocks has almost never worked when I've tried it before.

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 18:13

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Why would you assume today's sales would manifest in today's stock market price?

# ¿ Apr 13, 2023 21:19

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

If $BUD daily stock price increases the chuds have been owned
If $BUD daily stock price decreases the libs have been owned

# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 00:32

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

There is no non-gay consumption under neoliberalism

# ¿ Apr 14, 2023 01:44

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

I only follow experts like Dr Patel for TSLA pricing analysis

https://twitter.com/ParikPatelCFA/status/1341030141468786698

# ¿ Apr 23, 2023 18:12

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

GhostofJohnMuir posted:

even meme stocks must bow to the unassailable wisdom that is "sell in may and go away"

I've never really heard a reasonable sounding explanation why stocks tend to dip in the summer. I have noticed the pattern though.

and googling the phrase yields like 20 straight variations of "Why experts say you shouldn't sell in May", which makes me think the rule must in fact be true.

# ¿ May 10, 2023 22:20

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

It's shocking how much the mega-cap tech stocks have climbed early this year. Apple/Microsoft/Google/Amazon all +30-40% YTD, Meta and Nvidia are both +100% YTD. Meanwhile the SPY itself is up 8% YTD. And those megacaps alone make up almost 25% of the SPY by cap weight.

AI hype boosting tech? Fake economy? People seeking "safety" in the biggest cap companies?

Hard to decide what to invest in at the moment. Especially when the core cash position at Fidelity is up over 4.7%.

# ¿ May 23, 2023 19:42

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Nvidia jumped $100 after hour (25%) on earnings beat. Crazy.

JPow, the market demands another 5% increase in interest rates

# ¿ May 25, 2023 00:30

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

$200 billion of market cap added in one day. per ZeroHedge "NVDA added more market cap today than the total market cap of 472 of 500 S&P companies".

Good company, wildly overpriced. Way too dangerous to short though.

# ¿ May 25, 2023 21:44

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

The BUD Puts I bought a month ago have tripled in value. Please keep working your magic angry chud consumers.

# ¿ May 30, 2023 21:18

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

The default null hypothesis is always "it's random, stocks randomly go up and down for no apparent reason". Could even be the correct answer.

I think the winds might be changing though. Traditionally the right has been utterly incapable of boycotting, probably some combination of lack of organization plus their leaders largely being big business shills and thus ideologically anti-boycott. Maybe that's changing recently though? Social media is a powerful organizing force, and who knows how Elon's twitter algo might be subtly favoring certain topics. And success can breed success with regards to boycotts.

We won't see any updated earnings until August, but at least with $BUD there are some reports that sales of Bud Lite are down 20-30% relative to this point last year, with maybe 10% decrease to some of their other brands. Whether that boycott loss will be sustained, and how that translates to total hit to $BUD earnings, who knows. If nothing else, the range of $BUD over the last year has been $45-$66 per share. So a dip from $66 a month ago to $55 now could definitely be seen as just a mean reversion.

# ¿ May 30, 2023 23:41

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# ¿ May 22, 2024 11:22

Subvisual Haze: Nov 22, 2003; The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

https://www.axios.com/2023/05/31/anti-woke-movement-spac-investment-publicsq-target

quote:

Want to invest in the right-wing blowback to corporate diversity, equity and inclusion efforts? There's a SPAC for that.

Driving the news: It's called Colombier Acquisition Corp., and earlier this year agreed to merge with PublicSq, an online marketplace for companies in what it calls "the patriot economy."

If the deal closes, the combined company's board will include failed U.S. Senate candidate Blake Masters and former Mike Pence strategist Nick Ayers.
Why it matters: This comes at a moment when anti-LGBTQ activists have helped tank stock prices for companies like Anheuser-Busch InBev and Target.

PublicSq, which includes a section titled "Ditch Target 2.0," claims a 30% month-over-month user growth rate (now over 700k) and a 19% month-over-month business growth rate (over 50k) over the past year.
Last week it briefly rose to #4 in Apple's App Store, ahead of Amazon and Walmart, although by yesterday it had fallen back to #60.
"Any time Target pulls a Target, it's kind of a reminder for our consumers of, 'Hey, there's there's maybe some other options out there that we should pursue,'" PublicSq CEO Michael Seifert tells Axios.
Many of PublicSq's merchants appear to be apolitical, focusing instead on "American-made products," although there also are plenty of offerings like a "pro-life coffee brand."

The market provides

# ¿ May 31, 2023 17:25

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Stock Trading: try to reduce exposure to companies with CEOs who are on ketamine 24/7

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