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Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I knew he was having a career revitalization but I didn't realize Erik Karlsson was already at 53 points goddamn.

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Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
It's above freezing for sure, but 45 degrees (like 7 celsius for you Canadians) is still at least somewhat cool. As Arivia said the NHL has a good team for these, they've done these in warmer locations, and there just might be some weird softer spots. From a player experience it's actually probably more comfortable than an actual NHL rink, which is designed for the fan experience. I got to play at the Capitals arena when I was in high school and playing on that ice is warm, even downright hot. Everyone was sweating buckets because on the ice it feels like its at least 60F/15C with the building being at a temperature that is optimal for the fans to be comfortable rather than for the ice to be super cold.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 17:27 on Jan 2, 2023

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Seattle vs Vegas winter classic next year in Seattle

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
having an outdoor game indoors would be very funny

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Ullmark is gonna win the Vezina. 21-1-1 record, 1.90 GAA, .938 sv%. The goal the Penguins scored today was only the 45th he's allowed all year. I think people weren't sure about the signing when it happened (I was on the fence personally) and obviously the team in front of him is very good, but these are still crazy numbers. He's been great.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I don't want to see Bedard go to Chicago, Montreal, Vancouver, or Philadelphia. Mostly because I don't like those teams. I'm neutral on San Jose and Arizona. I wouldn't be mad about him ending up there but it's not the most interesting spot to end up either. If he ends up in Anaheim or Columbus I think that'd be fun. Lots of potential interesting teammates in those markets. Who wouldn't want to see Bedard and Zegras or Bedard centering Gaudreau and Laine?

St. Louis might also end up very bad since they suck and now two of their best players are hurt. I'm hoping they don't get to draft in the top 5 though. I think any of the teams mentioned before "deserve" Bedard (or Fantilli, Carlsson, etc) more than they do.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Ginette Reno posted:

Bedard on the Flyers would be fun even though I don't like the Flyers. The league is just more fun when the Flyers are good though. They're a rival to so many teams and a good villain.

That's a good point but I still am only moving them to the Neutral column

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Well that's unexpected.

He has a pretty big contract though. I don't think there are many teams that could actually claim him, and those that could are trying to tank for Bedard.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 20:48 on Jan 3, 2023

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I don't think Tage is this good. But he is certainly very good. Probably a safe bet for 40 goals and 80+ points per year for most of that contract, which is excellent.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Chad Sexington posted:

He's got a fantastic shot, is big, and does sicknasty dangles to create for himself. Not sure what part of that would be unsustainable. I guess if at some point the team decided they cared about defense it might put a damper on things.

That was a really fun game and I was happy the Caps got away with a point. I still think Buffalo is challenging for WC2 easily.

I just mean I'd be shocked if he shot 18% or whatever forever, if teams don't key in on him a bit more, etc. He's definitely going to have a big season, but he's on pace to score like 60 goals and 100+ points and I don't think he's going to score that much every year, because very few players do. Especially that many goals.

Edit: he's actually shooting 19% right now which is almost definitely not sustainable. Most of the best shooters are around 15-16% which doesn't sound like a huge difference but if he was shooting that he'd "only" have 23-25 goals right now.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Jan 4, 2023

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

Draisaitl has shot 20% over his last 4 or so seasons so it can be done.

Edit: Actually this season's 17.6% has dragged him all the way down to 19.7% over his last 326 games (since 2018-19)

Second edit: There are quite a few players that stick above 17% over the last 5 seasons (Schiefele and Point are another couple I always remember that are pushing 18% over that time, I'm sure there's others.)

Its definitely possible to shoot a higher % than is commonly thought as "sustainable". The tricky thing is that volume shooters generally don't shoot a high %, and Tage shoots A LOT, which is one of the reasons I thought the deal he signed was probably decent since his shooting % needed to fall under 10% for him not to be scoring 25 goals a season.

I mean yeah that's my point. He shoots a lot and he's getting particularly lucky right now and converting on more shots than he "should". I think he's a lock for 40+ goals a year moving forward. I just don't think this year, being on pace for 60+, is sustainable.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Hand Knit posted:

I feel like I want to see more than half a season of good Tage Thompson before I declare him a perennial forty goal scorer.

38 goals in 78 games last year. 30 in 36 so far this year, and he's shooting more. I think 100+ games is enough time to say he's probably capable of being a perennial 40 goal player. There are definitely players who have had high, short, peaks, but his age (he just turned 25) and the fact that the team will likely improve around him as time goes on make it seem like he's safe bet.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Like 20 guys hit 40 goals now, and I wouldn't be surprised if more do now that scoring is up. I think that this year is the outlier but that Tage could routinely hit 40 based on what we've seen of him. Top 20-25 is elite production but not necessarily "best goal scorer of his generation" territory.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
The chart says there's a zero percent chance of the Bruins being sad, which sounds correct to me.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Yeah waivers start at noon EST and teams have 24 hours. So I guess he cleared?

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Luke Hughes just scored a stupid goal in the world junior bronze game https://twitter.com/EPRinkside/status/1611116175521636352?t=wYgVV8jxBpySyz-7n7o88A&s=19

Wouldn't surprise me if he goes to the Devils when the NCAA season ends

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Yeah both goalies in that game sucked rear end but I guess they're probably like 18 so whatever

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Boston has 30 wins and it's only January 6

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Chad Sexington posted:

I have money now on Boston winning the Cup and Ullmark winning the Vezina. Because if the results on ice are going to make me sad, I might as well get cash from it.

I feel like Carolina is the better bet. While I would like the Bruins to win, of course, going through the Atlantic side of the bracket is brutal. They'll almost certainly have to face one or both of Toronto and Tampa Bay at some point, and then maybe Carolina on top of that.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I dunno, I feel like that's a weird assessment of the Hurricanes. If they were losing in the first round every year, then yea, but in the last four years they've been to the Conference Finals once and the second round three times. Well I guess one of those years the "second" round was actually after a qualifying round, so maybe that only half counts, but still. It's not like they're losing in the first round every year like the Leafs.

Jamwad Hilder fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Jan 6, 2023

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Ginette Reno posted:

Maybe I've caught them on the wrong nights but I haven't been that impressed when I've watched Boston. They're obviously good but they're riding unbelievable goaltending from Ullmark. We'll see if that continues into the playoffs. But I never watch them and think oh yeah this team is asserting its will and dominating xyz opponent. For the record they have I'd expect to watch them and see them kicking the poo poo out of their opponents and owning the puck but I rarely feel that way with them.

I usually don't feel like they're crushing teams either to be honest. They have games where they dominate the opposition, but more often than not it feels like more of a "they won't go away" thing. There hasn't been a game all year where I felt like "well, they're too far behind now" and started watching something else. Every game is just relentless, consistent, effort, and they just seem to wear down the other team.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Backstrom's game isn't really all that much about skating though. It's not like he was ever zipping around like McDavid. As long as he can keep up with the play, I'd imagine he'll still be reasonably effective.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I think Boston has more points now (66 in 39 games) than Chicago, Arizona, Columbus, San Jose, and Anaheim will have when the season is over.

They're probably going to lose to Anaheim tomorrow though now that I said that.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Blackbelt Bobman posted:

You should be thanking the Sabres for Ullmark, all things considered! I hope he stays healthy, he deserves nice things.

Obviously no one knew Ullmark was going to be this good, but between looking at his numbers on some of those Sabres teams he played for and the old fashioned eye test, it did seem like he was arguably the best goalie in their system in recent years. I wonder why they let him walk.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

T-Bone posted:


That's...really close. I like Canada's D more, the US goaltending is better, and the forward groups are as close as they've ever been, it's almost a pick em' there. Canada's forwards are old though comparatively, drat. Good thing they've got Bedard/Celebrini/Fantilli/Misa on the way.

I think I actually like the American defense better, by just a smidge.

One interesting thing about that US roster is that a lot of those guys have played together, and won a lot, in international tournaments for quite a while. From like 2015-2017 there was that cohort of the USNTDP that did very well against their peer competition, and a lot of those guys would be on the hypothetical US roster now. If you take a look at the WJC rosters from those years it's kind of amazing. Might be the best age group of US talent ever.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
The Bruins felt, and probably still feel, like Swayman is the goalie of the future. Ullmark was brought in to split starts with Swayman because Rask was going to retire and running Swayman/Vladar wasn't a realistic option. I think based on Ullmark's performance in Buffalo they thought he'd be better behind Boston's defense, but probably still only a 50% of the games kind of goalie. That's pretty much what happened the first season, but this year Swayman has struggled a bit (although he's still playing ok for a 24 year old) and Ullmark has shown he's definite starter material and having a Vezina caliber year.

Blackbelt Bobman posted:

They didn’t, he chose to walk. It’s most Jason Botteril’s fault for signing guys like Ullmark and Reinhart to bridge contracts instead of locking them up long term. That’s part of why Kevyn is a great GM, he knows who his core guys are and made sure they would be sticking around.

That makes sense. Obviously he's living up to the contract he got, and more, but I can see why Buffalo would balk at what he got based on his body of work.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
I like that "being outside of the playoffs, but only by a little bit" qualifies as a good time to be a Sabres fan. I guess after that 15 win season the other year it's a huge improvement though.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
It's weird that Mantha hasn't worked out in Washington. Idk if it's depth problems or what but he's been so underwhelming, and he was pretty good in Detroit.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Luckily the Canucks should get a good player when they pick 9th overall

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Call Your Grandma posted:

i know this is tongue in cheek but occassionally a really good player falls to 9th like ehlers in 2014

my comment was less about players who go 9th overall and more about the Canucks being this bad and still not picking in the top 3.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa


I like that one of the ten draft picks is conditional.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Double post but tonight Pastrnak is up to 32 goals and is second in the NHL in scoring, and every day I get madder that Sweeney won't just pay him. He's getting more expensive by the day! Give him a dump truck full of money!

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Boston is 15-1-4 in their last 20 games and the only regulation loss was to the Coyotes lol

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Mind_Taker posted:

So Florida is really gonna miss the playoffs huh?They’re currently only ahead of Montreal in the Atlantic when you go by points percentage.


They're definitely in big trouble. Like 10-12 games ago I thought they could maybe turn it around but then they didn't do great in those 10-12 games between then and now. They need to win 30 of their remaining 42 games, or get the equivalent amount of points, to hit 100. That'd be playing .714 hockey down the stretch. Even 100 points might not be good enough, that was just what the 8 seed limped in with last year in the East. I still think they're better than their record because the roster is too talented for them not to be. It wouldn't surprise me if they do somewhat turn things around but ultimately end up with like 90 points. Better than than what they're on pace for, but not enough to make the playoffs or get a high draft pick.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Eric the Mauve posted:

No the trade for Thachuk was about Maurice's very seriously held desire for his team to be stocked with assholes. It's been his M.O. everywhere he's been, and more and more the older he gets.

Having hired Maurice in the first place is the problem. It's as clear a middle finger to the whole concept of analytics as you'd ever hope to see.

The Tkachuk trade was good for them though. There are many problems with the Panthers, but he's not one of them. Tkachuk is just about the only thing going as expected, or better, for Florida. He's top-10 in the NHL in scoring and has more points than both players he was traded for combined. I'd do that trade again if I was Florida. You're absolutely right that hiring Maurice is the problem, I think. Their decisions regarding coaching were a bit baffling in general. I thought they'd keep Brunette to be honest.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa

Wonderllama posted:

i didnt brag when the lightning rolled through the regular season in 18-19 which, as you may know, is against my posting persona character because i knew the (mostly recent) history. but they got swept by some team that isn't even in the league anymore i don't think.

so why not brag away bruins fans, live in a posting ivory tower and hang your regular season champs banner next to the "cured our own racism" banner

that's your mistake. future success isn't guaranteed, all you can do is enjoy the present.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Campbell wasn't really an unknown goalie either. He was pretty highly touted coming out of junior and a first round draft pick. He famously came in for the US in the 2010 World Juniors and stopped like 34 of 36 or something in the gold medal game, which the US eventually won in overtime. He got his opportunities, and he didn't make the most of them.

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
https://twitter.com/HateThisTeamPod/status/1612972572559446016?t=hoAA_fMdDyrDw2autwN_Lw&s=19

Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Mostly fine

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Jamwad Hilder
Apr 18, 2007

surfin usa
Saw in Friedman's column that a while ago, before he went to Columbus, Winnipeg offered Laine to Philadelphia for Provorov and the Flyers said no. Maybe I'm underrating Provorov a bit but lol

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