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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I used to think Miller would have been a perfect deadline acquisition for the leafs (prior to his extension) and now I’m once again glad I’m not an NHL GM

Also, unrelated, but if a Western team could win the Bedard lottery that would just be super

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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



ThinkTank posted:

The Flyers are by a considerable margin the best place for Bedard to end up. McDavid being in Edmonton was a huge detriment to the league. I'd like a young, exciting superstar to be in a big east coast market. It would be tons of fun to see the Flyers be truly relevant again.

Have you considered that John Totorella would be his coach

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Congratulations to Jimmy Vesey for finally being able to get an apartment on a year lease

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007




Yeah a whoooole lotta Leafs fans got got by the usual November sv% mirage, and the Leafs terrible goaltenders crashing down to earth as soon as the calendar year was up was absurdly predictable.

The fan base has started turning on Morgan Rielly because the crash more or less coincided with his return to the lineup and his gaffes are obvious, but it’s pretty clear the goalies are letting the team down the last month or so. I will repeat my years-long stance that Morgan Rielly shouldn’t have been re-signed, though.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Cartoon Man posted:

Mantha’s gonna get traded. Who wants him? Where should he go?

A 28 year old making $5.7M with another year on his contract? Unless Washington’s willing to retain salary or spend futures in a cap dump it’s gonna be real hard to find a team that can swallow that.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Sure the Bruins are on pace for over 60 wins on the season, but the last team to do that got swept in the first round so maybe they should cool it instead of tempting fate

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Timmins was a fairly high pick and had a good post-draft year, but I’ll admit I figured we’d never find out if he was any good or not because he’d shatter to pieces in a week.

A fun question for the team is what to do if he keeps it up and the D remains relatively healthy. Maybe Holl could sit a bit like he did last year but Friedman mentioned that Dubas has been trying to trade him since last season and you don’t increase someone’s value by healthy scratching them. It’s probably a moot point anyway given the nature of NHL injuries.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



https://twitter.com/dalter/status/1613204717512888320?s=46&t=Tm8i73znDXE9Es2_Q-O-9A

Auston Matthews is never going to play a healthy season for the rest of his career

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Eric the Mauve posted:

At this point I assume it's that same drat wrist that's been bothering him for years and it will never heal.

It definitely was at the start of the year, when Auston freaking Matthews of all people is passing off shooting opportunities and only taking off-side one-timers on the powerplay for a month it’s not hard to compare to the two previous times his wrist has been hosed up and he started doing the exact same thing. Weirdly he seemed to be snapping off his shots a little bit better lately but nagging injuries gonna nag I guess

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Hand Knit posted:

I wonder if this has been on the books for a while and the actual breaking point hasn't been anything to do with Matthews but rather the Leafs deciding it's not worth it to go all out to chase the division now that Boston's so far ahead.

Almost certainly, I’ll never understand why they don’t just give their stars a month off or just have the drat surgery as soon as these things come up instead of letting them limp along for months at 60-70% and never get any better so if this is them conceding that they’d rather have Auston 100% by the playoffs I’m all for it. Or they could just be making a big deal of a glorified maintenance day and I’ll continue to be disgruntled.

Weirdly Auston not being able to just rip pucks through goalies from the circles on the PP might have made the whole unit less predictable/more interesting this year, mild positive.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I remember there were some real barn burner games between the Leafs and Bruins around the 06-07 era, couple teams that could score ok, had questionable d corps and goaltending, was a lot of fun. Then the 10s came around and it was much less fun.

In Matthews news:

https://twitter.com/ATFulemin/status/1613581052529999872?s=20&t=LlwysAvYt5z5YdyVHsWgmg

Seriously, this is not even a decision, just say he’s out.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



That post just reminded me that Travis Dermott exists. Wonder how he's doing... oh no

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



fawning deference posted:

Grier denied that those rumors are accurate, so that should be taken lightly

“Totally inaccurate, if we’re retaining salary it better be 4 first-rounders and an NHL-ready prospect”

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Dubas acquiring a guy so that he could lose him instead of another roster player was so galaxy-brained it could only blow up in his face. The fact that he did it to protect Justin Holl of all people, who would be healthy scratched multiple times and end up on the trade block with no takers the following season, is particularly funny in hindsight. Holl also committed the insanely slow, obvious pick that got Tavares’ tying goal called off in G7 against Tampa, this team is a comedy.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



So Vancouver has shadow hired/fired their coaching situation, made it public knowledge but won’t announce it, and of all people to hire they chose Rick Tocchet? Am I getting all that right?

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I don’t think the Bracco comparison is fair, Robertson actually showed projectable skills when watching him whereas it took one Marlies game I attended to convince me that Bracco was a JAG.

It was always going to be tough for Nick though, turns out having a real shot and offensive anticipation doesn’t count for much when you never have the puck because you cannot get it off the wall at all.

Twin Cinema posted:

Nick Robertson is done for another 6 months. I don't think I have seen such a cursed player.

He’s the sad instance of scouts being leery of a really talented small dude being proven completely correct. Hard to develop through your formative years when you spend 6 months of every season on IR, it’s hard to imagine him carving out a decent career at this point.

Koopa Kid fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Jan 16, 2023

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Actually now that I remember there was a thing in development camp with Hayley Wickenheiser where she told reporters her message to Nick was to learn to pick his spots and let the game come to him sometimes, and he responded to the press saying that he got to the NHL by giving 100% and he wasn’t gonna change that.

So I guess it’s less about physique and more that Nick Robertson is simply too dumb to get out of the way of being trucked by 240lb defenders constantly.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I say this every year but man I was so pissed when the Rags traded up to get Miller and the Leafs ended up with Rasmus Sandin

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



There’s scuttlebutt in the Athletic about O’Reilly and the Leafs, and even if making the cap work wasn’t impossible it really feels like Nick Foligno 2.0 in terms of paying a kings ransom for somebody a season or two past it. Like the odds that dude breaks or just sucks for the few weeks the team would need him are so high.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Duckman2008 posted:

I mean, sure, but Ryan O’Reilly is leagues above Nick loving Foligno at any cross career comparison.

The Foligno trade was and is super funny because it was obvious that you were reading for someone who at his peak was a 2nd liner. Cool dude, but never worth a 1st rounder.

RoR was a top center as recently as last year. How much he needs Perron is a good question, but he’s still a good bet IMO.

Obviously the potential ceiling is way higher, yeah, the comparison was more along the lines of "this guy will likely be incapable of performing the role you're getting him for" both because of injury and because age/production would point to them declining

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Matt Zerella posted:

Honest question but what is it about Leafs fans where whatever rental is rumored to you I see replies like this? ROR would probably be pretty great if you can fit him cap wise and he's healthy.

I feel like I saw this when the rumor was Mcdonagh, and earlier this season, Vatrano.

I’m giving my honest opinion based on a guy’s literal current injury status and his stats this year, I don’t know what you’re talking about and I don’t care what other Leafs fans are saying about other proposed deals I’ve never seen

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Call Your Grandma posted:

RoR would be a fine pickup for the leafs imo but the scuttlebutt is just a pundit making poo poo up and our big playoff acquisition is gonna be Lucic

ROR’s on-ice xG share is 40%, the worst of all regular Blues forwards, and the team is significantly better when he’s not on the ice. Possession under 50% when he’s out there, he’s on pace for his lowest point total in years. And that’s all before he got a long-term injury he’s still out with.

And all that would be fine if the Blues’ asking price was reasonably in-line with what he’s been doing, but they’re going to demand a return for the guy he used to be. And that’s my point, any team paying for him is taking a huge risk because the ROR who played 37 games so far this year is a lot worse that he was even a year ago.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



gently caress that guy

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1615754013697527808?s=20&t=Ty993i14LF96S8xd3tJnpw

This better be temporary roster shenanigans because he’s probably their best 4th liner

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



eXXon posted:

McMann and Anderson are tops in CF% and xGF%. Just sayin'.

If he's staying (supposedly sick?) I'm unclear on who's supposed to center the bottom 2 lines unless it Jarnkrok/Kerfoot + Kampf though.

McMann’s lucky that he missed the game against the one good team the Leafs were up against in his time here

The Leafs need another option at C for sure, things get dire when any of them go missing and Holmberg’s greatest contribution to the lineup is allowing everyone else to play in the right spot. Kerfoot playing 4C isn’t good for anybody.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



DancingMachine posted:

Constant chatter about how lucky and unsustainable Kraken success is, but the Jets are sporting 103.1 PDO and the Stars 102.6, while the Kraken are sitting at 101.6. Is the consensus in this thread that PDO is bunk and really only shooting regresses to the mean?

100 PDO is a general benchmark, not all teams will regress to exactly 100. Reason to doubt Seattle’s success specifically comes from shooting percentage being a lot more volatile year over year compared to goaltending. I would expect, say, Connor Hellebuyck to beat league averages (and put WIN above 100) more regularly than I would expect Seattle’s roster to be the best shooting team in the league by a large margin.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



We're scratching him because he sucks. Nowwwwwww who wants to trade for him, all offers considered!

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Furnaceface posted:

Also want Philly one of the first teams to adopt the You Can Play program? This just keeps getting worse somehow.

So I ranted about this stuff in Discord yesterday, I’ve been trying to dig up the old scuttlebutt about YCP’s videos and pledges but since it was 11 years ago (:rip:) it’s pretty hard to find the posts/tweets/whatever

but anyway if you look at their Wikipedia article they don’t list NHL teams as supporters, only individual players. That’s because only the players who appeared in videos actually pledged their support to the cause, no NHL team has ever committed to being a supporter. Of course the controversy was that the messaging from YCP made it seem like teams were involved when that wasn’t the case, which is pretty shady

The only teams to take YCP’s pledge were some AHL clubs, and YCP doesn’t even do that anymore

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I would like a Horvat but I know Dubas is gearing up for his usual 4th line centre and over-the-hill Dman package

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I would have loved Schenn on the Leafs last year

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Leafs coulda brought Boudreau in as an assistant-in-waiting a while back but chose not to, it’s a shame.

I am about to do something that I rarely ever do though, which is give Keefe credit: the Leafs have done a lot of positive things tactically this year that fans (mostly me, some others) have been clamouring for a while for and it’s been going pretty well.

They’re more aggressive at the offensive blueline on D to force turnovers, the offence is running more behind the net play to force goalies and defenders to turn, they’re attempting more royal road passes and one-timers. Matthews and Marner being split up gives the team more depth and makes Tavares’ line not a disaster in their own end, the fourth line when healthy is no longer an embarrassment. Matthews’ production falling cause of whatever’s bugging him and a bit of a goaltending rollercoaster aside, a lot of old frustrations with the team have been smoothed out.

To bitch about Keefe just a little though, most of those changes are addressing problems in his systems and deployments that have been obvious for literal years, and a lot of time has been wasted on him figuring out that the best shot in hockey is not setting up, circling up high and loading a wrist shot for 2 seconds before firing it into a bunch of defenders.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Koth posted:

All the Canucks had to do was not let information leak.

One of the issues with running a toxic workplace is that it’s really hard to maintain confidentiality and discipline if even a few people hate your guts and want you to fail, and I imagine JR is not universally popular

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



https://twitter.com/LeafsPR/status/1617528829408575488?s=20&t=LbzZyMD6hsWKidC6F1pYUw

Thank you for your sacrifice, Dryden Hunt

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



I'm trying curb my habit of posting a bunch of graph/table tweets as content, so I'll just say that according to JFresh Morgan Rielly is the 7th-worst defender in the league by 5on5 defensive WAR (min 20 minutes per game) which is not surprising in itself cause there's lots of 'top' guys in the bottom 20 like Karlsson, Hedman, Chabot etc., except that unlike those guys Rielly does not crack the top 20 in offensive WAR 5on5 so his drawbacks are outweighing his benefits pretty significantly.

I didn't think he'd be able to live up to his contract extension over the full life of it but I didn't expect a drop-off immediately, the Leafs are just straight-up worse with him in the lineup this season. He's been injured and he's always relied on his partner to get the puck back defensively so there are excuses to be made, but it's pretty drat worrying for the Leafs cap that he's playing like this and has 7 more years to go.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Columbus getting rid of Bjorkstrand for cap reasons and signing Grudbranson for big money has gotta be one of the top causes of their struggles this year. Probably worse than Yzerman tanking his D corps by putting Chiarot in the mix.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Furnaceface posted:

Hedman is the new Karlsson.

Odds are Hedman’s in full “saving it for the postseason” mode tinged with a little “we’ve already got Cups and how many loving playoff games have I played the last 5 years?”

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Powershift posted:

This is a pretty cool picture



I also like the ice-level shot where you can see the crowd reactions, the face on the woman wearing a Marner jersey on the left side is classic

https://twitter.com/mnmfan76/status/1618446418234191873?s=46&t=xeG06iqcoGyIxOWmvZD87g

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



Matt Zerella posted:

https://twitter.com/DaveyUpper/status/1618419805824118785?s=20&t=FCTifrpLBvhYmG5uW8Zgrw

This is pure filth from Kakko. I missed the game because I'm in Italy for work. Looks like the kid line did really well last night?

Obviously really incredible stick work from Kakko, but I know I’ve also been old-crank-pilled because I see Marner try to pass the puck through the middle right through him, instead of just chipping it off the wall and regrouping, and go “that’s why the Leafs can’t win a playoff round.”

And I don’t mean because of Marner specifically (though his decisions with the puck in the d zone absolutely cost them multiple late goals against the Lightning), but the unnecessary risky plays and the lack of detail in players throughout the lineup whether it’s Kerfoot or Engvall or Rielly or Sandin, it’s a hallmark of Keefe’s era with the team and something that absolutely holds them back because they put themselves in position where they need to make great plays just to make up for their earlier mistakes. And there isn’t 3 on 3 OT with forwards defending in the playoffs either.

Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



The Rangers bottom six definitely crushed their opposites on the Leafs end which is not terribly surprising, the Rangers top guys like Panarin and Fox were pretty quiet though. Moneypuck had the Rangers and Leafs basically even on xG until the Rangers took the lead in the second, then they didn't generate anything defending the lead and the Leafs took off (Kreider's PP miss wasn't technically a shot so doesn't count towards xG). Only the Rangers third and fourth lines ended up positive by the end of the game, the Leafs only negative players were their bottom 6 (and Benn lol).

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Koopa Kid
Aug 21, 2007



There's always room on an NHL d corps for a guy who's big and doesn't complain

eXXon posted:

Huh? Was it not a shot attempt?

I guess the argument is that it wasn't shot at an angle that could reasonably go in? All I know is that it should be a big bump in the chart if it counted and it doesn't exist.

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