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Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I am really happy to have Joe Pavelski onboard for another year, there has been no sign of decline in his game yet so I'm looking forward to see what he can accomplish in his age 39 season :)

The Stars are really looking to have an abundance of riches up front next year, if they can improve the blueline pairings even a little bit I think they will have a strong cup contending team

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Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
The Carolina team is the clearest example yet of a roster in want of a superstar.. it's about as good now as you can make a pro sports team be without having anyone even close to awards conversation, watch out if they ever manage to bring in a truly elite talent to anchor their team around... they really should have been the team to have traded for Matthew Tkachuk, missed oppurtunity.

Starsfan fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Jan 6, 2023

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Misanthrope posted:

Matt Tkachuk is a superstar? Is every ppg player a superstar?

Putting aside analytics and player valuation models which have been argued to over-rate Tkachuk over the last 120 games the only players in the league that have scored more points/60 than Tkachuk are McDavid and Kucherov so I think it's fair to throw his name in the ring.. He has 47 points in 36 games this year playing on a Florida team decimated by injuries, you have to consider at some point as the production piles up that last year was a legitimate break out season for the guy.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
The Kings are a pretty solid team in all likelihood, their goaltending is actually pretty bad for the most part this year.. can't speak to their strength of schedule but overall they are a budget version of Carolina where they pour on shot attempts and tilt the ice but they don't have the elite finishing talent on their roster. I remember last year in the first year they should have been swept out of there by the Oilers but Quick stood on his head.. makes me leery of giving them too much credit until they show they can play with the teams with more game impacting talent on the roster when it counts.

The Jets are amazing goaltending and well above average finishing leading to results, they are a fraud team that you should expect to fall off except for the fact that they've actually been pretty injured (and apparently alot of those players are now returning or close) so the fundamentals underlying their performance may improve even as more pucks start finding the back of their net and less go into the opponents.

***Despite what I said about the Jets being a fraud team, they are actually probably just legit better than the Blues and the Preds by a decent margin when healthy so you should still expect them to make the playoffs.

Starsfan fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jan 7, 2023

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I think the Oilers have been genuinely unlucky in some respects.. the most obvious one being Jack Campbell has really been awful for them, way worse than anyone would have reasonably predicted at the start of the season. The Oilers also suffer for having been fairly unlucky when it comes to getting close games to OT as they've only had 5 of their 42 contests go past 60 minutes in which they are a 2-3 record. Edmonton has historically been an excellent 3v3 and shootout team so they are not just leaving OT loser points on the table, they are likely leaving a ton of wins on the table in these games they are choking away in regulation.

They are a better team than their record, and it is reflected in the fact that they regularly have these one off performances like when they put up 6 goals on Carolina or 7 goals on Seattle and they control the game from start to finish, but then the next day they'll lose a game by 3+ goals to a team playing it's 2nd game in 22 hours using it's 3rd string goaltender and you wonder what the hell is wrong with the team lol.. it is very funny to watch though :)

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

ThinkTank posted:

Campbell had a two month stretch of good play and has been flat out awful since January 2022 (and all games prior to October 2021). Marginal goalies get hot for a stretch because shooters don't have a book on them, then they go back to being marginal when they do. Smart teams don't give a guy $25m because he looked good in a new conference for six weeks having played some 60 total career games to that point. It was absolutely the most predictable outcome ever, and it's fantastic.

his time in LA was pretty good overall but I guess you are only talking about the games he played with the Leafs? like 60 total career games is what he did for the Leafs lol, he also had 60 with the Kings before that

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
Laine always scores like 5 points when he plays the Stars so obviously he's the greatest player of all time

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Shinjobi posted:

Conversely it was wild as hell watching the bankrupt, ownerless Dallas Stars manage to blow like 3 win and you're in season enders in a row. Heartbreakers all, but the seasons were exciting.

The Stars have to be the weirdest team in the NHL in my lifetime, they've went from:

being annual cup contenders to
bankrupt and running a team full of jobbers on 1 or 2 year contracts to
(briefly) the most exciting team in the league with arguably the best line in the NHL to
the most boring team in the league filled with over-paid veterans and one of the worst rated prospect systems in hockey to
once again having arguably the best line in hockey (a completely different one) with an exceptional farm system and playing an exciting brand of hockey

all without ever actually doing a traditional rebuild or tear down.. it's the team that never stops trying (to finish 8th place in the conference every other season on average)

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I think the Oakland A's are actually a doomed franchise.. atleast in Oakland they are. They play in an open sewer, 3,000 people watching the home games when it's not the Yankees or Red Sox in town, ownership just wants to move the team to Vegas, and in the mean time seems to actively be trying to punish the remaining fans by trading away anyone who even looks like a regular MLB player. That's pretty bleak.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Furnaceface posted:

Patrick Kane is now on IR and Max Domi leads the Hawks in points.

People laughed at me in the predictions thread when I said Chicago would be worse than Arizona but this might even be worse than I was expecting. Going to be hilarious when they dont win the first overall and it ends up going to the Flyers (where I fully expect Bedard to Lindros them because Flyers cant have nice things either).

did I wager something on this? I remember being one of the people who didn't think it was possible

**nope, just me trying to cast doubt on the Blackhawks chances of finishing 1st in the Bedard lottery. While I guess this shows me.

Starsfan fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Jan 13, 2023

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

xzzy posted:

Kane getting injured in the run up to the trade deadline is the tiniest whiff of penalty the team deserves. We all know they were gearing up to unload him to some cup hopeful team and ain't no one going to pay full price if he's hurt. Obviously it's just bloggers blagging but there's sentiment that whatever's bugging him is long term recovery territory.

well seeing as one of the most commonly rumored teams to be after Patrick Kane was the Dallas Stars I was hoping for an act of god to torpedo this trade, it looks like my prayers may have been answered!

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Matt Zerella posted:

Nat to take anything away from Buffalo but Pronman is wrong a whole lot (he though K'Andre Miller was a sub par skater :lol: )

Dallas fans aren't particularly fond of Corey Pronman... I don't think Dallas has ever had a prospect that has much impressed him, even guys who turned out to be elite talents like Heiskanen, Robertson and Hintz.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
Man the west is hard to size up.. The Stars, Jets and Kraken strike me as arguably weaker teams than their records would indicate, but it's basically at the point where they would need like a .480 points percentage the rest of the way to miss entirely so I don't see it happening.. I think Dallas is a legit playoff team (top 10 expected goals ratio at 5v5 and all situations), if either of the other two were closer to the wildcard spots they would be my pick to miss. The Golden Knights should be the #1 team in the conference when all is said and done, the only real contending team at this point for a cup in my opinion from the west.

Calgary and Edmonton are both playing much better hockey as of late and look like safe bets to make the playoffs unless things really turn on their head, which is always a possibility for the Oilers I suppose.

I guess that leaves Minnesota, Los Angeles and Colorado as the three options that I'm looking at.. which is strange to think about because before the season I would have locked in Minnesota and Colorado as clearly the two best teams in the conference based on their rosters. Los Angeles strikes me as the worst of the three, an average team at controlling play (ranked 18th in all situations xGF%) with awful goaltending to boot. Colorado has had super poor shooting results at 5v5 this year but they've managed to keep their heads somewhat above water on the back of amazing goaltending performances.. I think their shooting will improve as more of their talent gets back in the lineup and they will coast into the playoffs. Minnesota has been such a disappointment this year but in their favor is the fact that they haven't been riding amazing goaltending or shooting performances like other teams and they have been playing mediocre, uninspired hockey and yet they are still trudging along in a playoff spot, so basically any improvement in form or luck will result in a big win run in my view.

Ultimately I think it's most likely LA to miss and 2nd most likely is Seattle after their shooting luck turns on it's head and they go on some ridiculous cold streak.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

ThinkTank posted:

https://twitter.com/timandfriends/status/1616520533184495618?t=LriVObNCZI9UKxK7qRg9gg&s=19

It's just delightful that the Canucks consistently kill the spark of joy in people.

aww I feel really bad for Boudreau.. his teams in Minnesota were always as tough as it got when it came to effort level and attention to details in their game. I still think he is an excellent coach and I hope he gets another shot somewhere if he wants it.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

VOTE1 posted:

On the streaming apps this happens quite a bit for me, as being international you don’t get shown the adds so sometimes the ‘returning soon’ overlay doesn’t go up properly.

Edit: https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisFaber39/status/1616692275949756417

I 100% approve of Bruce clowning on the Canucks on the way out. Insane how the Canucks have handled this so poorly that the coach of a team that's out of playoff contention by January has the full sympathy of the fanbase and the media. It should have been the easiest thing in the world to fire Boudreau the right way.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
All I remember about Rick Tocchet is that he had a team that almost set a NHL record for most games to open the season without a win

I remember every time I saw them play a game the broadcast was sure to mention how hard working the Rick Tocchet Coyotes were and he was surely doing a great job at building up this young team and yet they never got any better throughout his entire time there.

**holy gently caress I just remembered that Tocchet was one of the finalists for the Dallas job.. thank god for Vegas firing Pete DeBoer

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I look at the impacts the change from Rick Bowness to Pete DeBoer had on a lot of players on the Dallas Stars and I can see arguments either way.. There were inarguably certain players on the Stars that were really suffering from playing under a system that prioritized tough, defense first hockey. Certain players need to play in a more aggressive system to get the most out of their skillsets. I've found it very interesting to watch some players (Benn, Seguin, Faksa) who really excelled 5 years ago under Lindy Ruff have career rejuvenations under Pete DeBoer and then other players who were signed to play under Bowness like Jani Hakanpaa, Ryan Suter and Luke Glendening look completely lost.

Ultimately if Tocchet does try to implement some sort of new focus on grind it out hockey a bunch of players on the Canucks will probably benefit and others will probably be much worse under him. It's probably why building a winning team isn't as simple as just looking at the guys who led for points/60 the previous few years and going out and getting them.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

ThinkTank posted:

The Canucks outshot Chicago 37-5 at even strength last night.

Rick Tocchet fixed the team in one day! amazing!

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I think it's a pretty decent return for Vancouver, I've always liked Anthony Beauvillier and I think he could really impress on a team that wasn't so defense focused. Look for an uptick in scoring from him on Vancouver. Not as sure about Aatu Raty (I guess it's probably too early to tell with him) but I guess he is pretty hyped as a prospect? mid 1st round pick is obviously likely not going to amount to much any time soon.

**I see that Beauvillier has had a real dip in performance this year with the Islanders compared to how he was doing before, potentially a real smart flip for Vancouver switching out the over-performing Horvat for the under-performing Beauvillier. Before the start of this season if you asked me which one I wanted on my team I may have said Beauvillier straight up, not to mention the additional assets.

Starsfan fucked around with this message at 00:00 on Jan 31, 2023

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
tanking being a problem is something you hear about in baseball as well.. although in baseball there's not as much of a sense that teams are intentionally doing it outside of weird edge cases like Oakland and Pittsburgh. They just changed up the draft to implement a harsher lottery that was supposed to disincentive tanking and then teams did it anyway.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
kind of an interesting article proposing an issue with the way people think about hockey players or teams:

https://chacemccallum.substack.com/p/overfitting-and-how-i-think-about

Just came to mind with all this talk about the Canes.. The article talks about how it's very easy to come up with broad explanations for why a team or a type of player isn't successful and then search out support for those theories, like for example claiming you can't win the Stanley Cup without a superstar on your roster, or claiming that you shouldn't draft defensemen under 6'-0" tall. Part of the reason for this is that humans are very bad at picking out signal from noise, and this effect is compounded when you are dealing with circumstances where there is much more failure than success (only 1 out of 32 teams wins the cup, only a small percentage of players drafted make the NHL) so you will end up with lots of evidence of players or teams that meet your criteria who failed even if the theory you are working with is junk (because lots of teams and players of any description fail).

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

hmm interesting.. the analytical world is not particularly high on this guy i believe, but I guess he is something of an emotional leader for the team?

it's a situation where the Sabres are shooting the lights out this year and right at the top of the league for goals per game and that is inflating the point totals of alot of their complimentary pieces.. is it sustainable? I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall short on the deal.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Mind_Taker posted:

Tortorella healthy-scratching Bedard because he doesn’t block shots would be funny.

"He's going to start on the 4th line next to Nicolas Deslauriers and earn his way up the roster"

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
Vlad seems to be pretty washed up, I hope the Rangers don't trade another young ppg forward to St Louis for him.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Furnaceface posted:

Dallas seems better off in that they are younger and have some wiggle room if they want to try and push for a SCF run again. No idea if it would be worth it right now though.

I'm starting to wrap my head around Dallas potentially being the favorites in the west.. although I think there are still a few teams that will have arguments over them (healthy Colorado, healthy Vegas, Edmonton or Calgary if they ever actually get their poo poo figured out)

I think there are arguments for Dallas to go for it but I don't think they have alot of attractive pieces (that they would be willing to move) for other teams.. The NHL roster is maybe the best young core group of players at impact positions in the league (Robertson, Hintz, Heiskanen, Oettinger), Joe Pavelski and a bunch of overpaid veteran cargo. Their prospect system /rookies (to include Wyatt Johnston) is also very top heavy with a few gems that they wouldn't move for anything than an earth shocking return, and then after that it's mostly low upside AHL'er types and 18 year olds kids that it's too early to get enthused about. They moved their 1st round pick this year for Nils Lundkvist already and that was kind of the major piece they had to play with.

I think if Dallas does make a move it will likely be for another Luke Glendening type to replace Denis Gurianov on the 4th line because they clearly don't want him with the team long or short term.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

Darude - Adam Sandstorm posted:

The Oilers leak every single big move they make so the local hacks can talk about how great a move it is ahead of time.

yeah, typically they hype up the incoming players and sewer the guys on the way out to shape the public narrative when another awful trade comes down the line.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I remember a couple years ago I tried to pay Rogers something like $200 for their full season subscription to NHL streams and when I tried to enter my credit card information there was no field on the webpage for the expiration date, security code or my mailing address.. it was just asking for my name and the credit card number, and when I filled those in it would reject the payment for not having all of the information. I called their hotline on opening night and waited for like an hour only to be told by the guy that alot of people were having problems and they would get around to fixing it sometime but to maybe try again after the weekend or whatever.

Whenever I've considered signing up again it's such a pain in the rear end and they want you to create an account for a rogers subscription that I don't even have (Rogers doesn't even provide cable in my area to my knowledge) that I don't bother.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
yeah I'm starting to come around to the idea that this isn't Calgary's year lol..

That being said if they do squeeze into a wildcard spot I would honestly rate their chances of progressing through Dallas or Winnipeg pretty highly.. all the teams in the west kind of suck

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I really think if Dallas is going to be going after anyone it should be Jakob Chychrun because he so obviously fits into what the Stars desperately need and his contract is perfect for the current salary cap construction of the Stars.. it runs for 2 more years and then expires at the exact same time the Stars have a ton of bad money coming off the books so they could easily afford to re-up him if they decided they wanted to do that. Only move that makes any sense so far as I can see.

I'm sure what they'll actually do is give up waaaaay too much for forward help because the team is snakebit right now and they can't see that the biggest issue is that literally only 1 defenseman in the entire organization can reliably play 20+ minutes a night or carry / pass the puck out of his own end.

**like I've been preparing myself mentally for the last week for them to trade Mavrik Bourque as part of a package for Patrick Kane and then that little weasel goes on to score like 15 points in 25 games for Dallas while going -15 as the Stars drop to the 3rd division spot and lose in the first round to Winnipeg or Colorado.

Starsfan fucked around with this message at 22:00 on Feb 24, 2023

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I'm really sorry that things didn't work out for Denis Gurianov in Dallas, he seems like a really cool dude irl.

Gurianov is an excellent skater (like easily top 5% in the league among forwards) who has a great shot off the wing if you can unlock it on the powerplay. He will occasionally have games where he looks really impressive, beats defenders with his speed like they are standing still, and creates a few good scoring chances.. You'll wonder why the coaches don't give him more ice time and better linemates. He isn't afraid to drive the net hard either with the puck on his stick or trying to get open for a pass. The last couple years his line bleeds scoring chances and zone possession time when he is on the ice though, and at the end of the day the good stuff hasn't outweighed the fact that Gurianov has really struggled just to stick in the lineup with multiple coaches because of his defensive deficiencies.

And I'm not one that takes the "evidence" of multiple coaches disliking a player as proof of that player not having what it takes or whatever, these coaches are all clones of each-other who value / dislike the exact same qualities in players so it's not a surprise that a guy struggles under multiple successive coaches in basically the same culture / system. I hope that Montreal can figure out how to get the best out of the player like Colorado did with Nichushkin. It was so obviously not going to happen in Dallas however (because Dallas ruins many a young player unless they are a transcendent talent like Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen) so I can't be real sad about Gurianov leaving now instead of as a free agent in the off-season.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
I think this Edmonton trade has to be placed in the proper context. Yeah it looks really bad now, but when you consider that they are going to use the 3 million dollars in cap space to facilitate a trade for Joel Edmundson, I really feel like this trade can likely be elevated to one of the worst of all time.

Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely
Jim Nill is laying in the weeds, ready to pounce when the right player comes available at a discounted price....

**looking through the list of soon to be UFA 4th line forwards over 30 years of age**

Derick Brassard, come on down!

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Starsfan
Sep 29, 2007

This is what happens when you disrespect Cam Neely

I think that this was what Edmonton fans were hoping for rather than trading for Gavrikov or Edmundson so maybe the people in Edmonton will end up happy with the trade deadline after all?

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