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Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012


Does this chart not show him making a lot of high danger passes that don't result in shots?

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Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Eric the Mauve posted:

I think there are going to be some loving lunatic trades near the deadline as all the teams in the Metro swamp breathlessly bid for Kane, Chychrun, and whatever else is available. The Caps, Pens, Islanders, and Rangers are all 100.0000% going to be active buyers. Plus the Oilers are doubtlessly going to continue to be the Oilers. I think at least one of them will wind up trading their unprotected Bedard lottery ticket. This is a great year to be a seller.

Lol Ken Holland isn't going to make a big trade because he's a coward

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

https://twitter.com/seanshapiro/status/1609609178833641472

That's a great deal.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl-draft/en/round/7-round-draft-picks-players-all-time-points-leaders.html

And he just passed Zetterberg for second all time in points for a 7th round pick.


Only 4 players drafted in the 7th or later (not including undrafted players) with more points than him now.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

I was surprised Malkin has just 1 100 point season

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Starsfan posted:


The Stars are really looking to have an abundance of riches up front next year,

Do not test the hockey gods

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Tampa is like 5th in the entire league and has a higher points percentage than every team in the metro except Carolina.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

They've played outdoor games in Vegas and LA. It'll be fine

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

the Oilers can miss the playoffs if they get another Connor

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Draisaitl has shot 20% over his last 4 or so seasons so it can be done.

Edit: Actually this season's 17.6% has dragged him all the way down to 19.7% over his last 326 games (since 2018-19)

Second edit: There are quite a few players that stick above 17% over the last 5 seasons (Schiefele and Point are another couple I always remember that are pushing 18% over that time, I'm sure there's others.)

Its definitely possible to shoot a higher % than is commonly thought as "sustainable". The tricky thing is that volume shooters generally don't shoot a high %, and Tage shoots A LOT, which is one of the reasons I thought the deal he signed was probably decent since his shooting % needed to fall under 10% for him not to be scoring 25 goals a season.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Jan 4, 2023

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Ya he only needs to shoot 13% over 300ish shots to score 40 (and he's on pace for 360 shots this season).

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Maybe they feel bad for letting Blackwood play with such a hosed up foot that they let him cut a hole in his skate to play.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Ginette Reno posted:

The Pens were playoff chokers for years too

There are playoff chokers in later rounds and then there's collapsing year after year in the first round of the playoffs and not winning a playoff series in living memory.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Mcqueen posted:

What are the Kraken going to do with two not great goalies going forward? Asking as a new fan, is this normal?

There aren't very many good goalers so they're probably stuck with what they got unless Ottawa trades talbot.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

https://mobile.twitter.com/WHLsilvertips/status/1612275663926628353

Just to remind everyone how stupid the chl is.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

The Oilers have mostly been fine for about 20 games except that their PK fuckin blows. Problem is they're starting to get too far behind cause somehow Hakstol has a team playing well and the Kings despite all evidence that they are super flawed haven't collapsed.

If Holland wasn't a coward I'd expect them to find a trade and overpay for something worth it but instead they'll get Luke Schenn for two seconds or something.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

ThinkTank posted:

The Oilers are 9-8-3 over their past 20 games.

Yes they've been playing fine but not winning. They have a 54.4% GF over those 20 games at 5v5. But their PK sucks rear end.

As was stated above they've been somewhat unlucky to have the record they do have over that period cause they're not really playing all that poorly (aside from a couple climbers but whatever) despite the record. They have a goal differential of +9 and that usually translates to a very good record over 20 games. Their special teams even with a bad PK is also positive. But they can't close out games or hold leads even when they are playing well and welp.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Averaging 35 goals/82 games doesn't seem like a bust to me regardless of the rest. Laine definitely has issues but if he's a bust then anyone that isn't a HOF level player at 1-2 is a bust which is nonsense.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

He's at 49.2% GF at 5v5 for his career, and its that low mostly due to the horror show that is 20-21 for him. He's basically breakeven the last two years in Columbus and was 52% in WPG. On the PP in WPG he was a monster, the Blue Jackets just have an atrocious PP and I don't think you can blame that on Laine.

Again, he has a lot of issues, but he's not a bust that's absolute nonsense.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

grack posted:

Canucks apparently trying to re-sign Kuzmenko instead of trading him







Why

Cause Petey is gonna walk and they need someone to sell tickets?

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Its possible the surgery won't necessarily fix the problem or at least isn't 100% to and that rehab has as good a chance or whatever. Surgery isn't a magic bullet and some players don't want it unless its a sure thing.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

I'm not sure i can remember watching a team as bad as the Ducks holy hell they're awful.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

I think this Ducks team is actually worse!

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Also, why did the Blues give up on Kostin? He seems perfectly fine as a middle six dude with upside. I know they have a lot of young wingers but

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Mike_V posted:

He was mostly a non-presence on the ice and seemed to have a very low hockey IQ

Which is weird, since with the Oilers he seems to be in a good spot a lot for Nuge+Janmark to get him the puck in order to make plays happen, has good hands and hits a bunch. (That line is also on some ridiculous scoring heater when compared to their xGF%, but I think xGF/GA is generally broken for public data so its possible he also stinks, but EYE TEST)

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Every team's fans with a hosed up cap say the same thing: We just gotta trade away the bad contracts and keep the good ones, as though terrible contracts get traded or bought out all the time with no ramifications. The reality is that you have to eat a lot of poo poo to get rid of those deals with very little benefit unless your team is a contender that only needs to make one or two more moves.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

The canucks have no fewer than 6 bad to terrible contracts that need to be shed. You can't just dig out from that without getting yourself into a different type of hole.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

If the Canucks had to eat poo poo to move one or two bad contracts to sign a couple guys and get them to contender status it might be worth it but you have to dump in no particular order:

OEL, Myers, Poolman, Garland, Pearson and Boeser and lol good luck. Even if you move two you're still cap hosed by bad players, you're not fixing anything.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

SoggyBobcat posted:

Horvat's obviously not going to at a 60-goal pace every season, but he's obviously turned a corner and expecting him to score 35-45 goals for the net 3-4 seasons is not unreasonable. The value of that (not to mention the massive hole in the roster that's not easily replaced) is almost certainly going to exceed whatever crap futures package the Canucks will take in return for him, none of whom are likely to get close to where Horvat is now.

Honestly? Lekkerimaki has not impressed and it might be wise to trade him now while his value remains high. Similarly, Rathbone isn't going to play significant minutes for this team while Hughes remains, and it would be best for both player and team to move him before his value drops even further. And honestly, I think picks not in the top 10 or 15 are extremely overvalued.

And honestly, no I don't think my proposals for trading Boeser or Myers, or buying out OEL are that unreasonable at all. OEL's contract is very buyout friendly, Myers at 50% retained for one year can still be a useful player for someone, and Boeser retained down to ~$5mil is more in line with his actual value.

You still need to sign 10!!! players after those moves and will have 25 million or so to do so. Kuzmenko eats up 6+. If you pay Horvat, that's another 7.5 So you now have 11.5 million to pay 8 players. How did those trades and buyouts help?

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

Myers and OEL can be bought out to a cap hit of a little less than $3 million combined this offseason and Larsson only gets cheaper the longer they can hold off on it.
I'd imagine that's the path they'd have to go for him with that contract. Myers might actually get a taker

either way that'd give them $25 million (before the cap goes up) to sign Horvat and fill out the roster

The cap is climbing 1 million next year. Kuzmenko+Horvat would cost 13-15 million so there's 10-13? Left to sign 8 guys. And Bear probably takes 2.5 of that. It doesn't help and just pushes those contract hits further out and for what?

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Happy Birthday to Connor McDavid. And also to me. Hopefully the next 40 years of my life has less decades of darkness, more boys on the bus + hangman games.

And I hope Nikolai Khabibulin is partying today for his birthday but not y'know, doing crimes after drinking again.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Ya its really too bad that a team that never spends money like the Tampa Rays, will never make the world series.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Expected goals models are broken

Edit: this isn't to say that the Devils are bad, they have close to 60% GF at 5v5. It's just that xgf models or at least the public ones stink.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm fucked around with this message at 18:03 on Jan 14, 2023

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

https://mobile.twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1613975875523063808

Oh is that all???

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

rex rabidorum vires posted:

Team with 60% goals for has....wait for it....58% expected goals for 5v5. Team has 57% goals for all situations and 56% expected goals for. Yes yes. Extremely broken and inaccurate yes.

Should we mention all the teams where it isn't even close? I'm not talking about the devils specifically.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

The Oilers have to make a pile of roster moves since Kane is supposedly back this week or next.

The Canucks should trade for Warren Foegele! Young! Retool!!!

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Good Soldier Svejk posted:

The oilers have given away Justin Schultz, Chris Wideman, John Marino, and Ethan Bear

and they gave away Ryan Strome for Ryan Spooner


so just fleece them

Lol Chris Wideman

Marino refused to sign in Edmonton they didn't have a choice but to trade him or watch him walk.

Schultz was misused in Edmonton by bad coaches so ya that could have gone better.

I love Ethan Bear but Carolina wouldn't even play him and it took months for a trade to happen so him for Foegele is/was mostly fine. He wouldn't crack the Oilers roster currently anyway outside of them playing 7 dmen as they like doing.

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Ken Holland almost made a trade and then he got scared

Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

https://mobile.twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/1615519463159508992

Lmao

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Darude - Adam Sandstorm
Aug 16, 2012

Wow I'm shocked the team that signed Tony D has some bad apples!!!

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