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fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Eric the Mauve posted:

Looking over the standings to see how crazy Bobman's toxx was. Even if you assume the Penguins and Islanders (or Devils and Caps, whatever) will both collapse so the Atlantic can send 4 teams, the Sabres still need to get ahead of the Red Wings while also not being caught by the Panthers or Senators (yes the Senators are only 3 points behind them, and IMO will be dangerous if/when they fire their incompetent coach).

But the silver lining I just noticed is that the Sabres have weirdly only played 34 games, they have 2-3 games in hand on everyone else except the Red Wings. So that does help a lot. But there are a lot of teams they have to catch. They're 6 points back of the current 3-way tie for 7th-9th place in the conference, and 6 points is actually a ton when you're chasing multiple teams and also have multiple teams right beside you. Put another way even if you assume all 3 games in hand are wins, that still only puts them into a 4-way tie for 7th-10th.

The Metro is a gigantic clusterfuck. The Hurricanes are the clear #1 and then it's a quagmire of shaky teams. The Caps' position (3 points ahead of the PIT/NYI/NYR tie) is more precarious than it looks because they've played 39 games where everyone else has played 36 or 37. So in reality it's basically the Canes, the Devils (freefalling the last month and on the cusp of sliding into the Metro swamp), then the aforementioned swamp, a 4 way battle royale between:

- The ancient Capitals
- The even more ancient and also lately freefalling Penguins,
- The Islanders, who have no business here but are just kind of semi-competently chugging their way toward the playoffs amid the madness around them, and
- The Rangers, who have no business here (in the opposite way!) but whose coach appears to have lost the room so they could go either way.

Probably 5 of the 6 will make the playoffs, though the Sabres could make it interesting at least.

You can continue to put me down as not at all trusting Lindy Ruff. I know how great the Devils are playing as per every known metric. I still think there's a big chance they slide out of the playoffs. It's a fuckin' bloodbath in the Metro. But maybe that's partly some wishcasting because I don't want to admit the weakest of these 5 teams is the Penguins.

It's definitely interesting in the East, and while Buffalo is super fun and I'm happy for their fans, this is probably going to just be a season where they finish with like 90 points but miss, yet are a serious threat to add for next year and challenge for a spot.

I think the Islanders are going to go hard after a Patrick Kane type because it's Lou and he always wants to make it in. A team with their lineup being where they are is inexplicable to me until you realize Sorokin has been the best goalie in the league this year. I still would not be surprised if they skid in the second half and are out by the end.

Washington is tough, they seem to be on fire right now and actually have excellent goaltending, so I can see them making a WC spot. Out of NYI/BUF/WSH they are most likely to be in imo.

The Rangers are way too talented to miss and I think they'll sort their identity out or replace Gallant, and both things will mean lots of wins in the second half.

I know people are still skeptics on NJ, but considering they are out FOUR key players, including two of their excellent top four defensemen, and are going to add at the deadline (all signs point to Fitzgerald adding a scorer like Duclair or Meier), and it's really hard to look at the amount of talent and not consider them to be better than Washington and the Islanders at this point. They're going to make it and I would bet money on it if I were a betting man.

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fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Also in case you were all sleeping on Jesper Bratt

https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1609328524254662656?s=20&t=czUWVFPYGr8E5MluHlNyaw

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Eric the Mauve posted:

I think there are going to be some loving lunatic trades near the deadline as all the teams in the Metro swamp breathlessly bid for Kane, Chychrun, and whatever else is available. The Caps, Pens, Islanders, and Rangers are all 100.0000% going to be active buyers. Plus the Oilers are doubtlessly going to continue to be the Oilers. I think at least one of them will wind up trading their unprotected Bedard lottery ticket. This is a great year to be a seller.

Ruff has said as much that Fitzgerald is going to add at the deadline, and the Devils have a need for a shooting top six winger, so I expect them to make a splash too.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

It's hard to know whether or not players can sustain huge breakout seasons because teams start watching the tape and planning around the player.

To me, his size is a major asset, and I think the person who said 40 goals and 80 points can be penciled in as regular production is pretty spot on, with maybe a couple of 90 pt seasons.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

He's clowning the league though

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

UMich coach said that he would "bet his mortgage" on Luke Hughes being with the Devils after the end of the college season

Hamilton-Graves
Marino-Siegenthaler
Hughes-Severson

What a disgusting D

fawning deference fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jan 4, 2023

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Cartoon Man posted:

Made me want to check the list so far this year.



Holy gently caress I had no idea that Ovi’s catching up. The Rocket is probably McDavid’s to lose though. I can only imagine if Ovi gets another one at 37, holy poo poo. :corsair:

For comparison, Gretzky never hit 40 goals again after turning 30. By the time he was 35, he was a 20-25 goal player

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

T-Bone posted:

yeah lots of people were doubting the anointed Next One, no one knew he had it in him, it was a big surprise

You gotta think they're asking for Othmann. Not sure if they'll get a better offer than him and a first + maybe a 2nd or a middle tier prospect. I doubt the Rangers would trade Othmann and a young roster player but who knows. Even like Kravtsov + Othmann seems like a lot.

If they traded Othmann and a 1st / Kravtsov for a rental Pat Kane the fans would riot

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

T-Bone posted:

gotta be tough for them to decide, not sure I'd want to move Othmann giving how valuable a contributor on an ELC will be to that team

That's my point. They have cap issues and Othmann will be really valuable on that ELC. Kane is just a rental that they won't be able to re sign

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

crashlanding posted:

The problem with Luke is if he plays a playoff game they burn a year of his ELC, Nemec would be different.

I am praying the Rangers do something dumb and trade for Kane, dude is cooked.

I would be fine with this because the Devils are really good and have a great cap situation moving forward.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Lou is def gonna trade for Toews

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

crashlanding posted:

poo poo gently caress...Schmid got called up, Lindy talking at 5, Vanecek better not be injured

Interesting. This probably means something more about Blackwood than Vanecek

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

secret volcano lair posted:

I'd really love for them to cut their losses on Blackwood. Like, send him down to the AHL and if he gets taken on waivers that's life. But they have demonstrated a consistently bizarre level of faith in him, so I have to think either he or Vanecek is injured

It's probably more likely and more boring that one of them is sick and not well enough to sit on the bench as a backup and Schmid is just being called up for that. Teams do this all the time

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Blackwood took a shot during practice hard and they're keeping him out for precaution. That's why Schmid is up.

Bastian is closer to a return and hey Palat is back tonight!

https://twitter.com/NJDevils/status/1611121342815866880?t=niDna2347Mmbl13gBzE4Vg&s=19

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Rangers v Devils tomorrow looks like it's for second place in the division

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

rex rabidorum vires posted:

Ditto on Carolina. They create a zillion ok to bad chances which the vast majority of playoff team contenders have goalies that can deal with them. Then Carolina gets into coin flip situations with high dangers where their goaltending wilts and they lose.

This sounds like the Devils except the Devils create more high danger chances but have more defensive lapses

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

I'm still pretty high on the Rangers if they can put it together. They're probably gonna add Kane at the deadline and Shesterkin is capable of God Mode through a series.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Jack Hughes, after taking 9 shots in the last game, took 11 against the Rangers. He's now 3 from the league lead in shots, he's tied for the league lead in ES goals, and has 19 goals in his last 20 games total.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

T-Bone posted:

Obviously you need to see it over multiple seasons and he's gotta stay healthy and yadda yadda but he's been a top 10 player (honestly closer to top 5) in the NHL this year. Maybe the Devils did actually get the #1 in a good lottery.

It's crazy how much better his reads and decision making are, although I think a lot of it is just physical maturity. He's not McDavid because no one is, but his skating is so for above the rest of the league that he just creates chances out of nothing.


e: made me want to put together yet another hypothetical :911:

Robertson-Matthews-M.Tkachuk
Connor-J.Hughes-Guentzel
Gaudreau-Tage-Tuch
B.Tkachuk-Eichel-Pavelski
Larkin/DeBrincat

Slavin-Fox
Q.Hughes-McAvoy
K.Miller-Carlson
Sanderson

Hellebuyck
Oettinger
Knight


Next up F: Kreider/Keller/Zegras/Miller/Nelson/Beniers/P.Kane/Oshie

Next up D: Pesce/Trouba/Faulk/Hanifin/Werenski

Next up G: Gibson/Swayman/Demko


Maybe you move Tage or Jack to wing to get Eichel up in the lineup. But anyway that's gotta be the best US forward group ever by a huge margin, without looking I assume Canada's would still be better, but probably it's closer than it has ever been

I think Jack is gonna get some Hart votes this year, he is truly the engine the team.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

DO YALL WANT A BOXC posted:

he should for sure. I think it’s pretty clearly Connor as the winner and then Hughes/Robertson/Tage, but Buffalo probably won’t be good enough to make Tage a finalist.

not that the rest of the team isn’t good, but the gameplan come playoff time is just: try to gently caress Jack up. it will be interesting to see if anyone can catch him. my thinking (and hope) is that he’ll try to go into the harder areas come playoff time a bit more and get brained by some big idiot. this is true of any team that misses their star, but I think the Devils would be worse off than any team outside of Edmonton if they lose their top guy. he is changing momentum and changing games constantly this year.

Every time he steps on to the ice now, he's making serious plays seemingly at will. I think it's certainly going to be McDavid winning again, but Jack should finish top 3 if he keeps this up, and then yeah probably Robertson too.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Yeah I am absolutely rooting for Buffalo to make it and for the Pens and Isles to dick off

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Jamwad Hilder posted:

I like that "being outside of the playoffs, but only by a little bit" qualifies as a good time to be a Sabres fan. I guess after that 15 win season the other year it's a huge improvement though.

It's also the "number one offense in the league and really fun to watch" thing

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

I thought it was a joke about Bo Horvat

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Bastian and Marino will join the Devils on the upcoming road trip to practice with the team, so things are looking good.

Holtz is now on the top PP unit, which I think is a great move. The kid can shoot and their PP currently overpasses or overshoots from the point with Dougie

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

I also think they could conceivably beat any Metro they'd get in the first round. Boston, Tampa, or Carolina is going to be a series loss.

I do expect them to add a winger at the deadline who can score and I also expect Luke Hughes to be with the team for the playoffs so they actually might be super fuckin good

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Diet Crack posted:

N: Devils are back
V: Baby

Genuinely think we make the playoffs as of now - question is how far can we go? Will be happy with this season regardless of the outcome, a lot to build on once Bratt gets re-signed to have a formidable core. Goaltending still seems up in the loving air though, not sure Blackwood has been worth it. I think we can move Bernier's contract too in order to hold on to Vanecek?

e: Mercer also turning into a decent 2-way forward. Just so much to like on this team at the moment.

Vitek has been very solid, he was at a .914 before this game. I also really like Schmid. Their goaltending is good enough between those two imo

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

T-Bone posted:

I don't think Luke will play in the playoffs unless they're losing and are looking for momentum.

Interesting, you think they'll wait to bring him in?

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Diet Crack posted:

Yeah, I mean I enjoy both of their play - I just feel like if there's going to be a weak link in the playoffs, goaltending will still be it. Vitek has his moments as good as he's been, but I dunno. We'll see what the 2nd half brings.

Like I said though, this season has far surpassed all my wildest expectations. Got used to spending the better part of a decade stinking. I also think it might be time for an avatar change.

Goaltending is voodoo and teams have gone deep and even won with just okay goalies who either were good enough or who went on a heater at the right time. Most teams have pretty shaky goaltending. Vitek has probably been a top 12 starter this season

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Diet Crack posted:

I also think it might be time for an avatar change.

That reminds me, it's time for me to never change my avatar ever

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Chad Sexington posted:

If that game was any indication I think they can beat Carolina in 7. Canes were the team getting the bounces and they still lost. I've said ITT how I think their style isn't built for playoff success and I still think that's true.

Plus Vitek is the kind of goalie who doesn't steal games but he doesn't lose a lot of them either. That might be enough.

I think NJ would stand a chance against the Hurricanes but in a playoff series I think Carolina would match up really well against them and mainly tilt the ice. I would not be confident but I think it's doable, unlike say Boston or Tampa Bay. I think they could beat Toronto too because of goaltending and defense but I would consider it unklikely.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

T-Bone posted:

Yeah, unless there are injuries or they're getting smoked and want to change things up, I have a hard time believing Ruff will play him 3rd pair when he seems to value steady defensive play there.

Yeah I think there's basically no chance they move him if they're still in it -- it's really hard to envision any trade that makes the team better this season by doing so.

Didn't UMich's coach say he would bet the farm on Luke joining the Devils at the end of the college season?

I think you could still bring Hughes in, get him into NHL practices and playoff atmosphere as a 7th D, and if they need a jolt or have an injury during a series, they could suit him up.

I also think they could just mess with the pairings -- put Luke with a dependable guy like Graves on the third pair, bump up Severson, and there you go.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Not as earth shatteringly bas in terms of record as these other teams but in terms of "this is the most boring roster I've ever seen for a team I watch regularly" the 16-17 Devils were brutal.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/NJD/2017.html

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Remember Denis Gurianov?

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

https://twitter.com/LeoScaglioneJr/status/1614133722131099649?t=d2R5iOpgZCAieNgA0dChGw&s=19

https://twitter.com/BillSpaulding/status/1614132923191660545?t=PAb24EpZygS-NTo70XCxzw&s=19

Dare I say, they're back baby? Devils look real confident again and I feel another nice little run coming on. No I don't mean 21-1, but 8 out of 10? Sure.

It's also pretty criminal how good Bratt is and how they absolutely cannot let him leave. He's perfect for the way they play.

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Furnaceface posted:

I really hope the Devils fly into the playoffs, get swept, then hit Edmonton levels of suck for the next decade just so I dont have to scroll past 30 random fancy stat posts per page about why the Devils are the best team on the 4th day after a full moon when the tide is low between 6 and 7pm when opponents wear jerseys with red.

Also I want to laugh at Lehner but the guy has very real and serious mental health issues and its not clear yet whether murdered snake man took advantage of that.

I'm gonna be the annoying Devils fan who points out that metrics saying they're great are not nearly that complicated, literally just like, expected goals for

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Grier denied that those rumors are accurate, so that should be taken lightly

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

I get that it's probably annoying but any fanbase who's team has been a boring laughingstock for basically 10 years and has been patiently awaiting a rebuild that has been teased/gone wrong multiple times, and then sees everything finally come together and the team is now young and awesome... that fanbase deserves to be annoying about how fun and good their team is.

If like the Coyotes finally start tearing poo poo up with a young core in a few years, I encourage their fans to be as annoying as possible because they've endured garbage for so long

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Spelling Mitsake posted:

I'm still mad at New Jersey for playing the boringest style of hockey for like 20 years.

This is one of the worst cliches in hockey. Yes the 2003 team was boring, but the Devils teams of like, 2009 and 2012 had a lot of scoring and were fun teams to watch, and the famous 1995 and 2000 teams, well, we don't have to go through that AGAIN do we (they scored a lot of goals, like a lot)

fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

Boldy got a 7 year $49m extension in Minnesota. I think that's a great deal for both sides.

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fawning deference
Jul 4, 2018

mcmagic posted:

the devils really need to get Bratt done.

I believe they will. I'd expect a Bratt deal to be something along the lines of 8/$70-75m.

Also, is Tocchet coaching currently? I thought he was out of the league as a coach after Arizona let him go.

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