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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Mooseontheloose posted:

CNN has a Trump's comm director as a talking head? loving, why?

Objectivity!

In all seriousness, the new owner of CNN has wanted to make the network "less anti-Trump" to try to reposition itself. He thinks that will help CNN's long-term fortunes.

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

koolkal posted:

Relevant to some of the discussion around radicalization (although not touching on Gen Z):

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

A recent article on how Millennials aren't becoming more conservative as they age, unlike Gen X, Boomers, and the Silent Gen.

The article dives into the different factors that could be causing this, with the main takeaway that cohort effects (variations resulting from the unique experience/exposure of a group of subjects (cohort) as they move across time) have caused Millennials to develop different values than previous generations.

Hard to say how Gen Z is trending but it's notable that they are more left-leaning than previous generations at the same age.

I would think that Gen Z and Millennials are getting much less of the economic progress that often leads to conservatism. They're have less job security and are likely to make less money.

They are also less able to purchase their own homes and therefore do not get the perspective-altering experience that comes with that. Home ownership is probably the big first step into becoming a me-first Republican (second only to owning your own small business).

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Oracle posted:

Yeah its this. Can't afford a house, can't even afford to live in your own apartment by yourself, much less have kids... American Dream is dead for these folks and they aren't getting any younger. "owning a small business' I don't think applies because everybody's got a side hustle these days, if you don't have property to go with and instead just have like an etsy store or something you're not seeing a lot of the traditional benefit of being a small business owner.

I'm basing that "small business" comment off of seeing people in my life open up medical/dental/law practices. When you're working on your own and most of your money is still tied to the time you spend actually doing things, it gets very easy for many people to start resenting having to spend time and money on their employees and the governmental HR and insurance requirements. (This is actually the biggest source of self-styled "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" people who end up voting for "moderate" Republicans within my circle.) Everything needed for progressive change gets easily twisted into more things taking money out of your pocket when you look at your accounts.

Much of this arguably would be solved by having greater governmental involvement in stuff like health care instead of leaving it to individual businesses to conduct, but I don't know if Americans will ever get there.

I agree that having a small Etsy side hustle will probably not warp your perspective as much.

I admit anecdotes aren't worth much, but this is what I've personally seen.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I am probably missing something by not tracking right wing media very often, but it seems like Biden's classified document mixup hasn't really blown up. Am I being overly optimistic? Is this too early in the normal scandal life/death cycle?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I thought it would take a while longer before debt limit shenanigans would unfold with a GOP House in place, but it looks like the drama is already starting.

https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1613946606130282496

quote:

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday notified Congress that the U.S. will reach its statutory debt limit next Thursday and that the Treasury Department will begin “taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations.”

Yellen wrote that although the Treasury Department “is not currently able” to estimate how long those emergency actions will allow the U.S. to pay for government obligations, “It is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June.

The fact that we have this dialogue every 6-12 months is maddening. This is so stupid.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
From what I understand, default isn't immediate and any economic consequences are going to unfold gradually instead of grinding the economy to an immediate halt.

There''s quite lot of pain that could unfold before we ever get to a full-on default. We wouldn't need a default to get a government shutdown, for example.

I don't think Biden lets us get to a full-on default, but the impasse could get pretty hairy for all of us before then.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

BiggerBoat posted:

Because OP was a Navy Seal with a doctorate in physics from Brown and has a congressional medal of honor. Duh.

Anyone who says otherwise is a MSM hitman.

You should probably go run for senate and wear your medal of honor at debates and campaign appearances.

Wearing fake jewelry almost worked out for Herschel Walker, speaking of pathological liars.

Remember how Trump was notorious for giving out fake diamond cufflinks to impress people?

I really thought this should have been a bigger scandal, but I apparently have morals that are out of step with mainstream America.

https://nypost.com/2016/06/21/trump-has-been-giving-out-fake-diamond-cuff-links-for-years/

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

selec posted:

I can’t get mad about a rich guy scamming other rich guys tbh this is funny

Would it be funny if he gave the fake diamond cufflinks to you?

I find conmen generally offensive, even if they victimize rich people.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

Santos' district is primarily Long Island and a bit of Queens right?

I think it's worth remembering that this is the richest bit of the entire country. I don't think they needed a whole lot of dem failure to finally admit that they just love fascism unironically and wanted to vote for the R guy.

I don't know if it's the richest district in the country, but it is the richest district in New York state. I think economic conditions were pretty ideal for this kind of "socially liberal, economically conservative" place to flip Red, especially with Lee Zeldin running a gubenatorial campaign built to goose GOP turnout in Long Island. The main "hook" of the race before Santos' lies finally became a big story was that it was a race between 2 openly gay candidates. (Who knows if that sadly caused some Democratic attrition too.)

That being said, there was a lot of Democratic complacency here too, as detailed in the Atlantic piece below. I do wonder how good (or bad) of a candidate Zimmerman was.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/george-santos-fraud-long-island/672587/

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I suspect Holchul just wants to get back to what was business-as-usual under Cuomo and is hoping to just wait it out. Voters will have another set of concerns on their mind by the time she's back up for reelection.

I'm not a fan of hers. I think she knows how the New York Democratic machine works more than how overall general election politics work and it's eventually going to catch up to her.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

nine-gear crow posted:

Also is tonight the night the US defaults on his debt like Janet Yelin says? Because I saw a local news report last night that said both Amazon and Microsoft were preparing to or currently in the process of laying off a fuckton of people in preparation for an economic downturn, so it seems like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are both convinced that the Freedom Caucus is going to shoot the hostage while driving the car off the cliff over the debt ceiling.

Amazon and Microsoft were laying off people because they overhired and certain economic trends aren't go according to plan. Amazon counted on peak pandemic-shopping trends continuing and Microsoft was plowing into various ventures outside of their core businesses like AI that haven't been immediately profitable. Microsoft went from 144k employees to 221k employees between 2019-2022. Neither of their layoff moves are tied to the debt ceiling, but I'm sure the prospect of a politically-triggered US default isn't making them feel more confident about the economy.

Life has been tough for tech companies ever since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates. Since the Federal Reserve has indicated that they want to keep raising rates until inflation falls down (somehow) to 2%, they're not getting any relief and cannot justify various unprofitable (or barely profitable) business practices they were able to swing in the past.

Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Jan 19, 2023

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Randalor posted:

I figure I'll ask here because I can't seem to find a general "US Economy and You" thread, but in the event the US does default (and considering the Freedom Caucus, it actually stands a pretty good chance of doing so this time round), what does that mean for the regular person, and how would that affect the US dollar in relation to other countries currencies?

This piece might answer some of your questions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/us/politics/debt-ceiling-economy-congress.html

quote:

What happens if we actually go over that cliff?

Just approaching a breach of the debt limit can hurt the economy. In 2011, congressional Republicans and President Barack Obama engaged in a standoff over spending and debt that was resolved just in time to avoid hitting the limit. That brinkmanship rattled investors, consumers and business owners, with concrete consequences.

Stock prices plunged — and volatility in the market spiked — as lawmakers approached a debt limit breach. They did not recover for half a year. The cost of borrowing for corporations, which fluctuates with the level of risk that investors perceive in the economy, jumped substantially. That made it more expensive for companies to borrow to make new investments. Mortgage rates spiked similarly, hampering prospective home buyers. The credit agency S&P downgraded America’s credit rating for the first time.

Consumer confidence and small-business optimism both plunged during the crisis, as well.

An actual breach would be far worse, economists warn.

If the Treasury Department is unable to make payments to lenders who hold federal debt — what is known as a default — investors would demand much higher interest rates in the future to loan money to the government. It would be similar to what happens when borrowers miss credit card payments — their credit ratings go down, and the interest rate they pay often goes up.

Such a scenario would add drastically to the government’s interest payments, which the White House projects will cost the equivalent of 2.6 percent of the total American economy over the next decade, further squeezing the federal budget. It would also threaten to destabilize bond markets globally because U.S. Treasury bonds are largely seen as one of the safest investments in the world.

That spiral would most likely occur even if the government maintains its payments to bondholders but is unable to pay other bills, like salaries for federal workers.

Perhaps most immediately damaging to an already fragile U.S. recovery, the government would pull a huge amount of spending power out of the economy overnight if it breached the borrowing limit. By choosing not to pay some combination of Social Security checks, federal workers, bondholders and more, the government would be immediately killing the equivalent of one-tenth of American economic activity, Goldman Sachs analysts have estimated.

“It’s a large amount,” said Alec Phillips, Goldman’s chief political economist. “You just take 10 percent of the economy out of play for a bit until you resolve it.”

Researchers at Third Way, a Democratic think tank, estimated in December that a debt limit breach could kill up to three million jobs, add $130,000 to the cost of an average 30-year mortgage and balloon the national debt by an additional $850 billion.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Shooting Blanks posted:

What are the requirements in the House to raise the debt limit? The Freedom Caucus is 53 people - even if they voted in lockstep against raising the debt ceiling, how many Rs would have to vote to raise it to overcome that? Is it a simple majority, or ???

How much do you want the Democrats to bend over to GOP spending cut demands to get enough GOP representatives to defect? There's a bit of bleed over and a very real chance that the "middle ground" to get both GOP and Democrats to vote on the same deal would alienate the more left-leaning Democrats.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Randalor posted:

So... poo poo will go up in price?

So... poo poo will go up in price?

A lot of people will lose their jobs. When you lose your job, there could be an 90% off sale and stuff will still be too expensive. That will have knock-on effects.

Prices might go down due to having to account for less buyers and less money in those buyers' pockets. Prices might go higher if government subsidies or facilities are necessary to assure the continued flow of goods and services and the government is unable to function.

As other people here have said, NOTHING GOOD HAPPENS.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I don’t think the Dem base and the supposedly undertapped demographics that centrist Democrats are accused of neglecting would take too kindly to their representatives voting in a Trump-apologist like McCarthy. Those Freedom Caucus nutcases were always going to have leverage given the small GOP House majority.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Judgy Fucker posted:

So Sinema goes Independent then, right? Does she even bother with the primary or jump ship soon?

Sinema left the party and registered as Independent in December.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/09/politics/kyrsten-sinema-leaves-democratic-party/index.html

quote:

And I know her poll numbers in Arizona are abysmal, but surely the most likely outcome is Sinema and Gallego (or whoever) splits the Dem vote, handing the seat to the GOP. And that's not to suggest Gallego shouldn't run and she shouldn't be challenged, it's just another indictment of our Godawful electoral system.

Sinema as spoiler is the likely outcome (although it will probably be more about having 3 candidates splitting up independents rather than a split amongst Democrats), but she already left the party so there's no point in anyone from the Democratic Party holding back just to appease her.

I don't know if that dynamic is really about our electoral system as much as it is about our crummy overall political setup. Sinema is basically following the money and has apparently been able to build up enough connections with wealthy donors from the private equity/hedge fund sector. If she didn't have that, it'd be a lot easier to just consign her to the dustbin.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Kaine's been dealing with Long Covid and has even complained about mild neuropathy issues, so I think he must have been fielding a lot of questions within the party about whether he was going to keep going.

https://time.com/6172625/tim-kaine-long-covid/

quote:

While his wife’s symptoms resolved within a couple weeks, Kaine is still feeling the effects of his infection more than two years later. Kaine says he experiences near-constant nerve tingling, like “every nerve ending has had five cups of coffee,” as well as intermittent hot sensations on his skin. In a more recent development, everything he eats now tastes both a little metallic and a little sweet—the latter, he jokes, is appropriate for an optimist.

The experience has been trying, even with his sunny outlook. Like millions of other people in the U.S., Kaine has Long COVID, the name for coronavirus-related symptoms that last months or even years. More than 200 symptoms have been linked to Long COVID, but some of the most common include fatigue, brain fog, chronic pain, and neurological issues like Kaine’s. He is the first to admit he has a mild case, one that doesn’t interfere with his ability to work, exercise, or live his life. But speaking with long-haulers who have more serious cases—some bedridden by their symptoms—has hardened Kaine’s resolve to fight for support for the complex and little-understood condition in Washington. “Just having this does connect me with more painful and difficult realities that a lot of people are dealing with,” Kaine tells TIME.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

6 documents dating back his Senate and VP days. I can't wait for the House investigation to keep churning this meaningless bullshit into some unholy butter.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Bird in a Blender posted:

2016 wasn’t very low turnout. It was 59.2% of the voting eligible population, higher than 2012 and higher than all presidential elections from 1980 to 2000, and just barely below 2004. It was essentially average turnout for the last 40 years.

So maybe it came down to Trump's ability to bring out people who normally would not have voted?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Failed Imagineer posted:

And HRCs anti-inspirational "It's Her Time" campaign

"I'm with her," seemed like a weird slogan.

I always thought they should have added "because she's with me" or something like that at the end but maybe that would have been lovely too.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Inglonias posted:

Regular people with security clearances get fired for much less than what Trump, Biden, and Pence are doing with classified information. I guess it goes to show that literally nobody is listening to the mandatory training they have you take every year on how to handle this poo poo, not even the president.

Is that actually the case though? From all the posts here, it sounds like they don't.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Kristi Noem is definitely angling for VP in 2024 but she's far far more mainstream and palatable to the business Republican wing than MTG, Noem has carefully walked a line between being a Trump loyalist and not explicitly endorsing election theft or Q-anon stuff. Ticks all the boxes for "freedom" during COVID and trans panic stuff etc though.

Yeah. I figure Noem is going to get the VP nod if Trump gets nominated again. It could alleviate some of Trump's problems with respect to women and establishment Republicans.

I don't know who else has been mooted for the role, though.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

projecthalaxy posted:

I wonder if any potential VP candidates would have accepted the post in 2016 but are a little turned off by that whole "sometimes DJT will lead/send a private army to attempt to murder you as part of a coup of the republic" thing. Seems like it would weigh heavily on a VPs mind! Maybe the sort of person with the ambition and connections to become vice president doesn't care though.

From everything that has transpired in the past 20 years, I think the GOP's motto (and the thing that ultimately ties all Republicans together) is that whatever one of their comrades does is bad only if it doesn't work.

Look at Pence. The guy was likely going to get killed by those rioters for doing the right thing and he's still trying to suck up to that base.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Buddhism has been influenced by a lot of preexisting beliefs in Asian cultures, which did have a concept of "hell." It's complicated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naraka_(Buddhism)

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
This Kent Moore person sounds unpleasant.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Leon Sumbitches posted:

Lol that the subprime mortgage crisis is the same as tenant protection laws

When you let poorer people get anywhere close to housing, BAD THINGS HAPPEN.

My over-leveraging and real estate speculation, on the other hand, is perfectly fine.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Actually, I take that back.

Apparently, this is his first step into being a "Responsible Member" of the House and back into the forgiveness of everyone who said he should resign a few weeks ago.

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1620438625858248704

The real lesson of the last 10 years or so is to never resign. Everyone will eventually fall in line when they realize you won't go away and you might even win re-election.

Santos' district is in Long Island and is supposedly competitive, but the fact that he won isn't a great sign of impending comeuppance to me. I think the rich Fox News-swilling people in his district are going to double down and keep him in.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

haveblue posted:

He won by about 20,000 votes, 53-46. But that was before all the lies came out

He also doesn't have to lose to a Democrat, they could just dumpster him for a different and more boring Republican

I think the GOP will just stick with him to own the libs.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Youth Decay posted:

When/if Youngkin decides to run in 2024 he'll have to run off a record of getting jack-poo poo done.

So he follows through with his belief that government doesn't work!

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Randalor posted:

I wonder how they know its a Chinese spy balloon instead of a Russian balloon, or a North Korean spy balloon. There are foreign intelligence officers seeing these news stories and wondering how they can just buy weather balloons in bulk now if one causes this amount of disruption (the amount being "anything higher than none").

You haven't seen it? It's so obvious!

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The stock market is currently collapsing (pre-market trading has the NASDAQ down 2.2% on the news), because people assume this is way too much "good" news that it means spending will increase and drive up or slow down the decline of inflation, which will cause the Fed to hit with even harder and higher interest rates.

This is yet another situation of something "breaking" post-pandemic and everyone basically throwing their hands up saying, "This isn't supposed to be happening like this." and nobody having a 100% solid idea on how to predict where it is going anymore.

"Collapsing" is a bit strong, Leon.

But yeah, no one knows what's going on now. Are we basically in the late 70s again?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Ither posted:

I already know the answer, but why hasn't the Fed been given other tools to solve inflation? Tools, for instance, that don't crush labor.

Morrow already brought up the point about taxes.

Another prong of the inflation fight would be active and intelligent legislation to increase the actual production of in-demand goods in our economy so as to drive down prices (instead of helping producers pad profit margins). This is often in conflict with the short term profit interests of our most powerful and wealthiest citizens and our system of government, unfortunately, is dominated by those parts of our society.

You've also had decades of the canonization of monetarists affecting the viewpoints of most of the people in Congress. I think the veneration of Milton Friedman has only begun to fade out as due to the aging out of the Silent and Baby Boomer demographics.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Weather balloons.

Balloons... that control the weather.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Wanting to force cutbacks on government spending is one of the big things that make centrist Republicans centrist Republicans instead of centrist Democrats so I don't think this is that surprising. I just wonder who'll get stuck with the blame when it's election time again.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
I hope Fetterman is okay.

They ruled out a second stroke, but he's still in the hospital for tests.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/us/politics/fetterman-hospitalized.html

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

nine-gear crow posted:

2016 was probably the worst year for that because it just seemed like one flowed into the other so it felt like loving EVERYONE died in 2016 starting with Alan Rickman at the start of January and then ending with Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds at the end of December.

I try not to get hung up on celebrity deaths, but Prince and David Bowie passing away in 2016 got to me.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Is East Palestine discussion still okay here?

https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1626642903924674572

Is this Nick Sortor guy on the level? I don't like this guy's presentation style since he just seems to be tweeting stuff instead of coming out with longer pieces for me to read, but I don't want to be blinded by my own biases. I don't like that he's been on Tucker Carlson, but I do agree that mainstream media has been really sluggish on covering this story.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Something smelled about how that Sortor guy was presenting everything, but I've been in some back and forth with one of my more left-leaning friends about East Palestine and I started wondering if I was being too trusting myself.

I appreciate you guys taking the time to lay it out for me.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Twincityhacker posted:

Texas politicans are being hateful bags of flesh again. This time introducing a bill that Chinese citizens ( nor citizens from North Korea, Iran, or Russia ) are prevented from buying property in the state.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/chinese-citizens-texas-are-incensed-proposal-ban-buying-property-state-rcna70836

Also just got into a werid conversation with a Texas transplant how most of the Chinese Rupublicans are recently from China, and thus see people treating them like poo poo as "oh, this is just like China!" and joining the Republican party forn that reason, and not "well, the lepords aren't going to eat *my* face."

It's a very stereotypically Chinese mindset to decide, "well, I'll side with the bullies so I won't get bullied. Once I have influence, they'll make an exception for me because I'm rich."

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

FlamingLiberal posted:

It ended up being a big pile of nothing

They stopped the whole debt bomb thing and essentially Reedy Creek is just replaced with a new board that is run by the governor. In practicality it’s not going to change much.

I wonder if the various GOP-appointed goons are going to invent things to keep Disney subservient. I'm not sure if that's really a change from what has been going on, but I imagine losing the autonomy Disney used to have there will create some headaches.

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