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StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
Are there any moderate republicans left who could say "gently caress this absolute shitshow, its dumb and bad for the country" and try to get democrats + like 20 republicans? Say its an anti-Trump republican who promises to just exclude the hard right anti-Kevin folks.

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StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

slurm posted:

So can they actually do anything without a speaker? Or can an obstructionist party with a slim majority use something like the Freedom caucus crowd as an excuse to keep the US without a Congress indefinitely, which with a Dem in the White House seems to their advantage

It looks like the House can do literally nothing without a speaker. No committees, no subpoenas, no bills, no floor speeches (maybe they can do a speech about the speaker? idk).

While the Rs have been obstructionists for decades, it sounds like some of them are getting tired of it, especially since it often just doesn't work. Right now it doesn't even look like they're holding to a hard line, they just can't get their poo poo together enough to choose a leader.

Gyges posted:

There are 0 Republicans who would cross over to vote for Jeffries or another Democrat as Speaker. There is the possibility that poo poo gets so bad after multiple votes that one of the Republicans who still remembers what it was like to be sane gets to be Speaker after giving Democrats some concessions of stuff like a Debt Ceiling increase.

It would be funny, but Jeffries definitely won't become speaker here. I was wondering if there was a more moderate republican who could get a cross party ticket, like a Liz Cheney, but its easy to believe they've all been voted out.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

Eiba posted:

Even if such a person existed, can you imagine how these people and their base would react to a Speaker installed with the help of Democrats? They're prepared to burn everything down in the name of ideological purity in the face of someone that has (apparently) conceded everything to them, and just doesn't feel pure enough to them (or at least he can be construed as impure to their base).

That's not to say that it couldn't happen, or that I don't want it to happen, but christ what an amazing tantrum these people would throw if it came down to that.

The "They" that are prepared to burn everything down are around 20 hard line conservatives. Even Kevin flipped on MTG and kicked her off committees, so that gives a gauge on how well the party is hanging together. The republicans who flip and vote for someone acceptable to democrats would get to skip the line and get committee chairs and their favorite bills voted on, better office space, and probably (rightly) get praised as the adults in the room.

Things that can happen:
- Kevin makes a deal and ahshahahaha no, that won't happen
- Hardline conservatives get someone they like in. These are they guys who shat in Kevin's cereal, he must have more than 5 friends who can kill any alternative candidate
- ???
- Moderate republican with cross party support

Big things holding this back are: It's dangerous just to talk about, and it would need to be folks who would not get easily primaried. For a deal like this (which would definitely be the best option for the democrats), and the dems could promise no serious contender next cycle.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

FizFashizzle posted:

It would need to be someone from an ostensibly blue state with a legislature and governor willing to help out the republicans when need be.

Someone with broad spectrum appeal to the lgbt, Hispanic, Eastern European, and Jewish community.

Someone willing to do whatever it takes to get the job done and not let reality stand in his way.

Someone will to be the hero we need, not the hero we deserve.

Speaker Santos should at least get more votes than Kevin

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

TyrantWD posted:

This circus is always going to end with McCarthy getting the number he needs eventually. The GOP are always willing to pull stunts like this when "it doesn't matter". Embarrassing McCarthy, extracting a few more concessions than you actually needed, when there is nothing on the line is exactly what I'd express from the nutcase caucus. When it is time to get serious, and you really can't go on without a speaker of the house, they will fold without hesitation.

This isn't impossible, but it sounded like McCarthy already folded on pretty much everything, so the HFC will have embarrassed their own speaker without getting anything good, and folded on their one point of "Not Kevin". This is why Trump is telling them to "Take the win", which is, what, that they aren't electing Pelosi?

The whole loving republican party is caught up in the idea that they need to look strong that they would rather walk into a wall than use a door.

Piell posted:

Republicans voters don't want bipartisanship, even in purple states there is a solid core of chuds that you need to win in order to win your primary

IIRC, polls have shown that most voters of both parties want bipartisanship, but they think their own representatives are doing fine and don't need to be more bipartisan

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
A few folks have been saying that since the Senate doesn't need a Speaker until the 23rd, neither does the House.

I'm pretty sure the Speaker needs to at least sign off on a bunch of administrative stuff like who gets what office and committee assignments. There are rules and procedures for this, but there are also judgement calls and deals. This is all much harder in the house, with more members and more freshmen.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
How is this playing in the right wing media? Has Tucker said he loves the HFC and they're definitely going to get *mumblemumblemumble*, or are they just being silent while the republicans act like useless assholes?

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Tucker has said that chaos is good actually and means we live in a democracy,

Proud 2 live in a democracy for the first time in like 100 years, I guess.

If it ain't on fire, it ain't workin'!

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
Did they burn their boats because they're all in for Donalds? Or Jordan?

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
Has anyone done a picture with McCarthy as Charlie Brown, and the HFC as Lucy?
Those pictures are my favorite. Good Grief indeed.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

Raenir Salazar posted:

Could Dems potentially pull a Lincoln, find vulnerable Republicans in Biden leaning districts, older closer to retirement aged Republicans, people who seem more into this for money and power and try to bribe them with positions in the Executive branch to switch to D, or to soft ball future Dem primaries? They just need 6 Republicans to switch or support Jefferies or some lesser number and some number of Present/Abstainations? If this clown show keeps going for long enough this has gotta get more possible right?

This is a good way to look at it, and I found https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_districts_represented_by_a_Republican_in_2022_and_won_by_Joe_Biden_in_2020 which lists 2022 races where the incumbent was an R in a Biden district, looks like most of them won.

I know nothing about them, but I assume their phones are going off the hook.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
The HFC must know where some bodies are buried to still be in the party. There's the argument that they give the GOP a majority but... do they? They can't even choose a speaker, how are they going to get anything done? I used to think a republican could step up and get votes from the dems, but at this point I think any repubs who want to get anything done (a minority but they exist) should just make a deal and vote for Jeffries until the HFC is booted.
But people who think that way probably left the republicans 4+ years ago.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

Meatball posted:

Whoever the candidate would be, would receive daily motions from the nutjob caucus to nominate a new speaker.

Only Kevin agreed to have that dumb rule, other speakers would probably have to accept something weaker than Pelosi's "Only the party leaders can motion to remove", but it definitely wouldn't be any one rep

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
From a certain perspective, Jeffries calling Trump's 2016 win "illegitimate" and then voting to certify the election, is the same as Trump claiming the election was stolen, waging countless losing lawsuits, and encouraging people to stop the certification by storming the capital.

I feel very clever drawing this equivalency.

StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!
Who was the democrat who was the absolute last one to vote? I was watching the WashPo vote tracker, and just imagining someone running to the floor, toilet paper stuck to their shoe, just so they could shout "Hakeeeeeeeeeem Jeffries". If that rep-elect had been absent, we'd have a speaker.

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StumblyWumbly
Sep 12, 2007

Batmanticore!

Uglycat posted:

So the putin-friendly wing of the GOP jams up the house - whose assent is required for any further spending of us taxpayer dollars on ukraine - and relents, finally, after a russian agent secured the armed services gavel.
That's a worst case possibility, but they just passed a budget in December with like $40b for Ukraine, plus I think the President has some leeway to fund Ukraine under his own power like lend-lease or whatever.

Most of the US has been pretty solidly pro-Ukraine, and Gaetz has zero charisma, I think he's more likely to drive independent voters away by being loudly anti-Ukraine.

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