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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Randalor posted:

How did McCarthy become the original frontrunner anyways? Just no one else wanted the job on the Republican side?

After Paul Ryan bowed out, McCarthy was the only member of leadership who wanted to be minority leader. Now, he's trying to become Speaker since the Republicans have the majority.

The other "rising stars" of the House Republican caucus all saw what happened to Eric Cantor, Paul Ryan, and John Boehner after they wanted to be speaker and decided to bow out for now because they thought it would only hurt their career since the House won't be able to pass anything on its own until at least 2025.

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Doctor Teeth posted:

why hadn't that been done already??

He's already caved on everything (to the point where other people are begging McCarthy in public to stop giving in to demands immediately) and now they are making up new crazier demands that he can't fulfill because they don't want to look like they made a deal with him. And McCarthy is agreeing to talk about these new crazy deals like putting Lauren Boebert ahead of 20+ other people to head the committee she wants or giving them tens of millions of dollars to create a committee to investigate the January 6th Committee.

There are 4-5 of them that just don't want a deal period because the point is to look like you stood up to the man and bravely went down fighting. So, they just keep making new demands, McCarthy folds, they don't vote for him, and they make new demands.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is apparently the only one that is a bad negotiator and accepted Kevin's first round of bribes.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
The Supreme Court already struck down term limits as unconstitutional in the 90's when Gingrich passed them.

They are just making weirder and more extreme demands of McCarthy and he keeps accepting them.

One or two of the people holding out must be trying to end this while saving face or getting a committee spot. Otherwise, this is a weird thing to agree to change your vote for.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1610844016907542532

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Someone at WaPo is hitting the bong in their freshman dorm and writing headlines.

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1610843794651357184

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Getting McCarthy to commit to a vote on something that was already pre-struck down decades ago by the Supreme Court is a pretty novel demand. I can't imagine what the purpose of getting him to commit to pass a law that will never pass the Senate or be signed by the President, and if it did, would instantly become void other than just seeing what else he will agree to.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

smackfu posted:

When did Gingrich pass term limits? I don’t think that stuff ever got put into law.

It was part of Contract for America, but there was a ruling on state term limits in 95 that declared them unconstitutional, so they had to make it a constitutional amendment and it never went anywhere.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
I went back to check on how close they were to passing that amendment.

The term limits amendment passed with a majority, but was way off (60 votes short) of the 2/3 constitutional amendment requirement in the House.

They had a balanced budget amendment and one that would also require a three fifths majority in both houses to raise taxes that came really close to passing. The balanced budget amendment passed the House and only failed by one vote in the Senate because one Republican opposed it. I forgot how close they came to that one.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
In the most literal sense, they don't actually need a House until around July. Possibly November at the very latest.

They just passed a full year budget for the first time in a long time and the debt ceiling isn't projected to get hit until then.

A few days/weeks of chaos is mostly just bad for the staff. Having no House means that literally nothing can happen, which is not ideal, especially if there are emergencies, but there is no rush to for the Dems to help bail them out due to necessity.

Even a "consensus" Speaker wouldn't be a huge deal for the Dems legislatively, because there will still need to be Republicans to vote for any bill that could possibly pass the House.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
Kevin thinks he has it sealed up.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1611459783332343809

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
According to CNN:

- Some people flipped because they were tired of voting and wanted to go home for the weekend (lmao).

The rest flipped because of a new set of promises that includes (but is not limited to and includes some other unannounced promises):

- Giving specific people gavels.
- Funding an anti-January 6th Committee Committee with several million dollars.
- Promising to freeze all spending in every budget up through 2024.
- HFC gets to pick members of the rules committee.
- Rule to force a vote to depose the Speaker with the request of a single congressperson.
- The House Majority PAC will coordinate with private Super PACs from Club For Growth and not spend money supporting different candidates in primaries for safe seats.
- Vote for a constitutional amendment on term limits.
- Vote on a bill to fund the border wall and require more aggressive internal enforcement of immigration law/deportations (i.e. not at the border).
- Promise to not vote to raise the debt limit without spending cuts.
- Promise to lay out a balanced budget with specific cuts to SS, Medicare, and Medicaid and hold a vote on it.
- Promise to vote to remove Omar and Swalwell from committees and reinstate MTG.

Basically, a bunch of embarrassing votes that are doomed to fail, permission to gamble with destroying the economy, McCarthy has to embarrass himself, and McCarthy will always be 1-2 votes away from being deposed at all times.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jan 6, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Youremother posted:

Hahahahahahaha is this for real? And a GAVEL! I WANT A GAVEL!!!

Gavel as in Chairmanships of committees. Skipping elections and seniority and just having Kevin decide to give it to specific people.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

cant cook creole bream posted:

So, what stops a random dem Congressperson to say "Okay Kevin, you're elected now. Let's have a do over?"

If they allow all members to do it in the rules, then nothing, But, assuming the Republicans are still holding on to the deal, then they will just quickly vote it down.

They might just limit it to caucus members.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PostNouveau posted:

lol, what did Swalwell do to piss them off that much?

Had sex with a woman who turned out to be a Chinese spy.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PostNouveau posted:

:lmao: Seriously? He did?

Yeah.

She targeted a bunch of California and Midwest politicians and volunteered/befriended/donated to them.

Swalwell allegedly had a "brief romantic encounter" with her, but he won't personally confirm or deny if he had sex with her.

quote:

Democratic congressman says he did not share sensitive information with suspected Chinese spy

Rep. Eric Swalwell told CNN Wednesday that he was “shocked” when the FBI informed him several years ago that he was targeted by a suspected Chinese intelligence operative as part of a broader effort to establish ties with US politicians, reiterating that he immediately cooperated with federal investigators who were looking into the individual in question.

Swalwell was named in an Axios report detailing what US officials believed to be a political intelligence operation run by China’s main civilian spy agency between 2011 and 2015.

quote:

Swalwell, in an interview with Politico, also sidestepped the question about how intimate he was with Fang, who intelligence officials said had sex with at least two Midwestern mayors as she tried to get information from them.

Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 22:22 on Jan 6, 2023

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Randalor posted:

So what happens if they can't pass the new rules? Does everything just come to a halt, or is there some sort of "If the Speaker cannot pass rules for the house within X time, they are removed from Speaker position and a new vote for Speaker is held"... uh... rule?

They basically can't do anything without a rules package unless every single member of the House agrees on something. And doing that for literally every single action would take years to pass a single bill.

So, they will find some sort of rules package. It will probably be like the Speaker situation where they just delay it for a while before ultimately landing on the original choice anyway.

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Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

PostNouveau posted:

Is there another speaker election next year or does it hold until new House elections? Can McCarthy now go, "Well, sorry guys your crazy rules package didn't pass. We'll have to go with the old rules." and not have to worry about blowback until a totally new House is elected?

Every new House. So, every 2 years.

Although, they can apparently force a vote whenever they want if they agree to the rule changes McCarthy promised.

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