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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Is #3 on this list actually an option? I thought it had to be a majority.
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/1611110772427341825

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

evilweasel posted:

A majority can vote to allow the plurality winner to win

Ah, well I think that would be quite the ballsy move then. Vote for me or let the democrats win.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Elyv posted:

It's not up to McCarthy, there needs to be a majority vote to change the rules.

That's what ultimately happened in the 1855 Speaker election, I think.

Surely both his loyalists and the Dems would both vote for that hoping they would win.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

evilweasel posted:

a motion to vacate the chair

But they have to vote for the rule threshold for that.

Kevin promises it will be a one vote threshold, but the rule doesn't currently exist, does it? So how can a motion to vacate work?

Or does the previous 'half the caucus' threshold still in force?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Rigel posted:

A prior congress can not bind a future congress with rules, so right now by default a majority can vote for a new speaker. They would need a majority to vote for new rules which would include whatever they agreed to. If Kevin reneged (and a majority cared enough about it to start over) it would be obvious immediately with the new proposed rules saying only party leaders can call for the vote or whatever, so they'd vote that down and we'd be back to voting for a new speaker again.

But his two hundred diehards don't want it to be one vote threshold or even five, so what's to stop Kevin from immediately stabbing the HFC in the back in the unlikely event he gets elected Speaker? Nothing. His 200 won't want to start over and the HFC won't go crawling to the Dems for votes even if they were open to giving it just to shank McCarthy.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Are we? Who is this mystery candidate?
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1611168127106031619

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Are you trying to persuade them to do it?

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1611205867449319424

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

OddObserver posted:

No, since the Democrats want a budget to be passed every year.

And raise the debt ceiling.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

nine-gear crow posted:

The complete absence of Steve Scalise in all this has been an enduring mystery to me since this started. The fact that he has not emerged by now as the heir apparent to get McCarthy to sit down means that he probably doesn't want to be Speaker under any circumstances, so that's why the rest of the caucus is flailing about nominating clown show candidates because no one actually seriously wants the gig besides McCarthy. The #2 option for them at this point besides McCarthy is literally nobody. Because if it was Scalise, we'd know by now because Steve Scalise, the physically dickless wonder that he is, is more than ready, willing, and able to just walk in and poo poo down McCarthy's neck like a honking giga chad if he wants something, and he hasn't which means he doesn't.

Maybe he thinks the crazies won't vote for him either and he isn't willing to be humiliated like McCarthy.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/TonyGonzales4TX/status/1611524269602918400?t=guojAOdW9M_ssT5I0VDLzg&s=19

McCarthy loyalists don't want to reward the crazies. He might get 218 votes for speaker, but he's not going to be able to pass a rules package and without that there is no majority

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Gyges posted:

So, if we have a Speaker but no rules, do we at least have a House of Representatives playing Calvinball?

If there are no rules, there is a Speaker in name only and nothing can be done.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Meatball posted:

I always thought 24 years for both was a nice fit. Four senate terms, twelve congressional terms.

I'd want the House terms lengthened to 4 years, split them into to two cohorts. Half elected in the presidential year, half during the midterms.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Farchanter posted:

So McCarthy gets exactly what he wanted.

Eh, I don't think he actually wants to risk a default. Just threaten it. The HFC are definitely willing to let us default.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

sweet geek swag posted:

The constitutional crisis this sets off would be fun to watch.

The Radical republicans did this to newly elected congressmen from the former Confederate states. Just straight up refused to seat them.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Nah, it's much funnier if he finally gets elected and then the rules vote fails.

If the rules don't pass there is no majority. If another set of rules passes other than the ones the Speaker proposes there is no majority. In either of those circumstances, a motion to vacate the chair would be completely justified.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Oil! posted:

The HFC rules vote could fail really quickly and a normal house rules package would pass with 400 votes. Then again, why would Democrats bail out McCarthy when nothing really needs to get done for months.

If the HFC package fails, what makes you think they will not move to vacate the chair?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Old Kentucky Shark posted:

Gaetz was talking to McCarthy right before McCarthy sprinted off to change the votes to Nay.

Gaetz flipped

Watch him vote present again.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Lemniscate Blue posted:

Scuttlebutt says Armed Services Committee chair.

Link?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1611588456446300164
https://twitter.com/C2YKit/status/1611589100712390657

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
Apparently not the top post after all
https://twitter.com/jonallendc/status/1611590430591778817

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

McCloud posted:

Ok so it's procedural nonsense then, got it. But that raises a different question, won't every single donor be on the phone screaming at the republicans to get it passed? Isn't that what happened last time, the donors got pissed and their polls dropped like rocks so they gave up? Like, are they betting that the dems will fold?
Yes. The Senate GOP got the message and they said it doesn't work and is bad politically.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

Cumdog Millionaire posted:

I was asleep. Did republicans take it on the 14th vote?
I saw 217 - 212 and 6 present. I thought it had to be 218?
15th vote

Present votes lower the vote threshold.

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
There was no majority until the speaker was elected, so this is technically correct. The best kind of correct.

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