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BigRed0427 posted:Yiiikes. The current "compromise" that McCarthy had given ground on was that five congresspeople would be needed for a no-confidence resolution. The functional difference between one and five is fairly negligible -- I mean, this is a House that has Gosar, Boebert, Biggs, Gaetz and Roy in it, so there's a permanent five right there -- but insisting that it go down to one is a symbolic knife-twist. The lesson of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema is an obvious one; when narrow majorities and being in the right numeric place at the right time give you leverage, you use that leverage and grab and twist as hard as you can. The kooks want either one of their own as Speaker, or to neuter the rules and procedures to the point where the kooks will have dramatically increased input and control over committees, amendments, investigations et al. Their only tool to gain this is this withholding of support, and it's effective; McCarthy can't climb the ladder without either their support or defecting Democrats', and the latter would be instant career suicide for both him and for those Dems. Gyges posted:His ability to broker a deal overnight was crippled more and more with each vote. If he'd called for adjournment after the first vote, I think there's a good chance he ended up Speaker anyway. A lot of the no vote was initially symbolic, and even those who were firm nos would have already gotten their theater before enduring a night of donors and party/ideology "luminaries" hounding them to relent. Instead he insisted on trying to winning via attrition by forcing continuous voting, which naturally led to him losing support as it became clearer that he wasn't going to get it with each vote. Going from nineteen to twenty, with the twentieth being the guy Chip Roy voted for in round one, isn't what I'd call a massive momentum shift. It was probably more surprising that Donalds voted McCarthy in the first two rounds. Now, if he'd gone from 19 to 39 or 59 or 79 against in later votes, that's a very different ballgame. And it still might be. The backroom screaming tonight will be interesting, because while the kooks know that they can drag this out by holding firm, the pressure on some of them to cave (whether carrot or stick) will be immense. It will be illuminating whether "knock it off, already" to the kooks or "you literally can't win, endorse someone else" to McCarthy will be the prevailing vibe.
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Jan 4, 2023 02:54
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Gerund posted:A house without a speaker smashes through the debt ceiling and never does any business necessary for the running of the country. Which is kind of the point of the exercise, from their perspective. The McConnells and McCarthys of the world want absolutely nothing to pass either house unless (a) it directly benefits them and/or (b) it is ABSOLUTELY necessary for the continued existence of civilization. The Chip Roys of the world want to skip the (b) part entirely.
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Jan 4, 2023 03:48
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The root issue is gonna be that the minute anybody is named as an alternative they'll get pilloried just for being an alternative. The chaos caucus wants to be in charge and they aren't going to accept any compromise that doesn't end with them being in charge, and nobody else wants to let them be in charge because they're all insane. Precisely. It's not just about the leadership role itself, but about control of all of the processes of the House. Increased voice on committees for the kooks. The ability to insert batshit amendments onto any bill as long as the Freedom Kooks approve of that amendment. Ensuring that impeachment proceedings move forward on the regular. Defunding whatever specific targets the kooks disapprove of at a given moment. Those who understand how the legislative sausage is made understand just how destructive that is, which is why 90% of the party is telling the kooks to sit down and shut up. Their response is, of course, "then there should be no sausage."
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Jan 4, 2023 14:48
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Randalor posted:So why do the chaos caucus have so much pull anyways? Why would it be political suicide for an R representative from more purple or blue districts to threaten to cross the aisle and back Jefferies as a show of "I can be bipartisan and not just want to destroy civilization as we know it" if McCarthy keeps bending the knee more and more to the chaos caucus? Sure, people in deep red states may hate their guts, but they're not voting in the purple states anyways. Because they know that the first rule of the modern Republican party is that Democrats are subhuman scum who are not worthy of being acknowledged, much less being allowed to hold any power whatsoever. Talk radio bellows that mantra 24/7/365 on every available frequency. To cede any ground to the Dems whatsoever is to be stamped with the RINO label, pilloried, targeted and primaried. Mitch McConnell, for instance, has done more to advance the conservative cause than anyone else over the last couple of decades. His efforts have ground Congress to a halt, prevented progressive or even moderate legislation from moving forward, reshaped the American court systems (including SCOTUS) dramatically, and given the Republicans a long list of major victories. His reward is that the rabble currently consider him a globalist, an archenemy of conservatism, an obstacle, a Democrat, a traitor and a willing tool of George Soros because he is insufficiently loyal and subservient to the Burn Everything Down cause, because things like the omnibus bill occasionally pass when they are necessary. The old saying from sci-fi is that the ability to destroy something bestows control over it. That's what's bedeviled the Biden administration for the last two years, for example -- the fact that 96%+ of the Democratic Senate could be in favor of something but if Joe Manchin and/or Kyrsten Sinema disapproved, it failed to move forward. If the Rs had a majority of thirty seats, twenty Freedom Cranks screaming about jailing Fauci and the WEF wouldn't be as much of a problem because they'd have enough other votes on hand. They don't, and they can't reach that majority without either Dems joining them or the kooks joining them -- and the kooks know that the Dems are completely off-limits.
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Jan 4, 2023 15:33
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"Here, for the first time, there are two black Americans placed into nomination for the Speaker of the House." *tepid clapping* "oh, gently caress, I'm on camera, I'd better stand and clap!"
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Jan 4, 2023 18:25
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STAC Goat posted:Allegedly they wanted to skip the votes today and just negotiate but the HFC wouldn't let them. The HFC clearly are grandstanding and want to keep doing this because its a rhetorical victory for them and show of their power. Plus they seem to be bleeding off McCarthy supporters. While obviously they won't get enough to change the vote it keeps adding to their narrative that they're beating McCarthy. Exactly. McCarthy has no way to stop the endless votes, as no one is officially in charge; a vote cycle ends, and the attending clerks go 20 GOTO 10 when there are literally no other directives for them to follow. The Democrats and the HFC are enjoying McCarthy's public immolation greatly, so they have no reason to vote to adjourn until the end of the day when they all want to go get dinner somewhere.
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Jan 4, 2023 21:13
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Tucker has said that chaos is good actually and means we live in a democracy, implying the non-HFC people are authoritarian soviet fans, Ben Shapiro has said that it’s stupid since the only thing the house can really do without the senate or presidency is roadblock Biden which literally anyone can do, hannity has said it’s embarrassing and makes republicans look bad Most of the C-listers (Hugh Hewitt, Judge Jeanine, etc.) are rolling their eyes and muttering, "Just elect McCarthy already and move on." Master Shake went on a Twitter tirade about how stupid this protest is and how disingenuous the twenty are, and has the usual suspects calling him a globalist uniparty shill and a Ukraine simp and a bought-and-paid-for swamp creature. Popete posted:I don't understand are they ending one vote and immediately going into it again? Again, there is literally nothing else that the chamber CAN do unless someone brings up a different motion (such as to adjourn). The attending clerks have only one option, barring other input, which is to rerun this until a Speaker is elected or until #ChipRoyDeathRally claims sufficient lives.
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Jan 4, 2023 22:02
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Someone's going to mess around just long enough for Liz Truss to be named the next Speaker. As a nation, we might even deserve that.
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Jan 5, 2023 05:24
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It's a little of each, I think. The Gingrich mantra, the driving force of modern cutthroat Republicanism, is to pick out the fattest target and attack, attack, attack, attack, attack until it falls over, then retarget and repeat. That's what the Grunty Twenty are doing here; they can attempt to gain materially by impeding McCarthy, so they're going to do that until they're losing more than they're gaining. If they feel like they can gain materially by doing the same to Scalise, Scalise won't get through, either. The Chip Roy types want to break the process. They want to reconfigure things so that it's no longer even _possible_ to do anything productive, and to wedge the Paul Gosars of the world into procedures and necessities to make sure of that. The Gaetz types, on the other hand, want a big-name scalp with which to build their personal brand. "I am a better conservative warrior than anyone else. I led the charge to slay a huge swamp monster." McCarthy is a potent symbol; he's a prime target because C-list talk radio and such howl about the Uniparty and hardline tactics and how America would be 120% hardcore conservative rule right now if leadership would just follow their batshit orders. It doesn't matter whether what the QAnoners want is even remotely viable; status quo isn't that, so status quo is their enemy, even if they're actually far better off under that.
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Jan 5, 2023 15:38
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At any given time, they had to figure in "Louie Gohmert or Paul Gosar may need to use this" and simplify the interface accordingly.
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Jan 5, 2023 16:54
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Anexoric Henry Rollins in the house
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Jan 5, 2023 21:33
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How pissed must Trump be that Good went off about "we need a BUSINESSMAN as Speaker of the House" and he didn't mean Trump
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Jan 6, 2023 00:47
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:Is this in reference to Hern? Donald’s has private sector experience but as an employee from what I can find (McCarthy has never had a private sector job from what I can tell so it could still be Donald’s in contrast to that I guess) It was while he was finally getting around to naming Hern in his speech nominating Hern.
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Jan 6, 2023 01:03
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Oracle posted:5. Assuming no Republicans have at this point drawn guns and started shooting The magnetometers have been removed, and Boebert is in the room. Too risky.
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Jan 6, 2023 01:40
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Involuntary Sparkle posted:I wish I could go back to teenager me and tell her that she would be eagerly watching C-SPAN some day, even laughing at it, and see the look on her face. C-SPAN sells "C-SPAN and Chill" hoodies, if you find a way to send one back in time for her
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Jan 6, 2023 02:27
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Youth Decay posted:Nah we have 3, just need Gaetz and someone else Gosar says "Hi." Bob Good proudly declared himself 100% eternally never-Kevin. If this gets out of the Gs and still has life, I'll be surprised.
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Jan 6, 2023 18:46
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There we go. Hello, chyron, my old friend.
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Jan 6, 2023 18:50
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I did not see Gosar coming, I'll freely admit.
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Jan 6, 2023 19:19
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Tibalt posted:If I was McCarthy, this is where I'd bring out the stick - anyone who doesn't vote for me when I win doesn't get any committee seats. Which is where Boebert draws her heater and yells, "Say that again"
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Jan 6, 2023 20:35
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Because Trone was in the hospital this morning and came back in his slippers to vote. A tiny bit of humanity shown by all.
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Jan 6, 2023 20:48
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coelomate posted:Could be a fun head fake in the prisoner's dilemna, could be true, I will have fun I do hope that Rosendale and Crane are on the phone making sure that all of their family members are where they're supposed to be right now.
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Jan 6, 2023 22:11
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either way
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Which brings us back to that bit two pages ago where 'moderate' Rs might help vote down the ultra-revised Rules package. Some of their demands probably could get the grudging go-along of the entire House. Most would be likely to fail in any case. But "let's let the kooks jump all the turnstiles and get ahead of us" is NOT going to sit well amongst many of the rank-and-file. Which means that the kooks can yell "WE DIDN'T GET WHAT WE WERE PROMISED!", even if many of them were "we will vote on X" rather than "we will vote on X and it will PASS," and things will get nicely funky once again. PostNouveau posted:
Yep. And was cleared of any potential wrongdoing, but that's why every time Swalwell opens his mouth, Twitter lights up with thousands of idiots yelling "bang bang Fang Fang."
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Jan 6, 2023 22:16
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Seriously? He did?
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What I'm kind of hoping for is that two of the lovely Six, let's say Boebert and Crane, will fail to respond to their name-call and save their votes for the end... then shout "MCCARTHY!" and RUN for the door carrying comically oversized bags in their hands with "$$$" stenciled on the sides of them. JUST for the look on Gaetz's face.
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Jan 7, 2023 01:48
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Oracle posted:Basically it goes like this: Please, oh please, let McCarthy pull some 1800s-level poo poo and when Gaetz walks up to be sworn in, McCarthy just jerks his thumb and sneers, "Take a hike" and calls the next Congressperson-elect in line. I've lived a half-decent life. I just want to see that much.
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Jan 7, 2023 03:33
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McCarthy will slither in at last, the revised Rules package will be put up for a vote, a point of order of "wasn't the whole point of this that we'd get 72 hours to read what we're voting on and not be told 'just shut up and vote for it'" will be ignored because that's part of what's being voted on, the Rules package will fail, Gaetz will stand up and say "I move to vacate the Chair--" and everyone else in the room will just start hucking staplers and briefcases and things that hurt at him.
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Jan 7, 2023 04:02
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coelomate posted:oooh I would very much like to be wrong about surprise drama. If Gaetz tells Gosar that under the new rules, the non-white members' votes will count, that might be enough to make Gosar cast a protest vote
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Jan 7, 2023 04:41
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coelomate posted:oooh I would very much like to be wrong about surprise drama. If Gaetz tells Gosar that under the new rules, the non-white members' votes will count, that might be enough to make Gosar cast a protest vote
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Jan 7, 2023 04:41
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As National Treasure Charles Pierce would say, these really are the loving mole people.
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Jan 7, 2023 05:16
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Caros posted:Now the real question is how long it takes before they no confidence him and we have to do this again. They still have to pass the Rules package with all of the concessions. Which is a moonshot for it to fail, but...
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Jan 7, 2023 05:59
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It's cute how conservatives who declare "earmarks were the most corrupt thing on Earth" are usually quite happy to accept bribes-for-votes themselves.
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Jan 7, 2023 06:10
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Don't forget to buy your C-SPAN AND CHILL hoodies on your way out
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Jan 7, 2023 06:46
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Pendragon posted:This is what I'm trying to figure out: HOW is he keeping the rest in line? What's the benefit to supporting McCarthy for the "true" Republicans? The distance between the leftmost Republican and a Freedom Kook is, generally speaking, not all that far. Philosophically, they may disagree as to whether certain bits of gamesmanship or priorities are a good idea or not, but in terms of the time-honored Republican mantra (More Money For Us, gently caress You), they are wholly on board. There is also a sense that even for many of the Kooks, their brave patriotic stands for FREEDOM FROM TYRANNY and TRUE CONSERVATISM are performative bullshit. That they're going balls-to-the-wall for debt default and Hunter's laptop and investigating Dr. Fauci's ties to al-Qaeda and SPECTRE not so much because they're wholehearted true believers in QAnon and the John Birch Society and whatnot, but because catering to the masses who are and who have been trained to believe all of that by forty years of mass media bombardment is a very successful election strategy for them. I mean, look at Matt Gaetz, if you can stand to. Do you buy the idea that he truly believes in ANYTHING, other than "more money for me" and "I would like my pee-pee fondled right about now" and "where's the alcohol?" Look at the pile of Kooks who stood bravely for America and God and apple pie right up until the moment that their price was met, then folded like a cheap suit, Gaetz included. (All the while, Trumpoids were on social media howling at the Chip Roy types who folded first, screaming HOLD THE LINE at them and declaring that McCarthy's election means civil war because he's bought and paid for by the Uniparty. "Uniparty," in this context, means anything in which non-Turner Diaries Book Club folk have any say.) But for the rank and file, they, too are painfully aware that their jobs depend on placating the base. They have seen many of their established colleagues insert reason and principle into their decisions and subsequently get primaried out by a gun-toting hog farmer. And if they're weighing getting screwed by McCarthy's backroom deals with loudmouths versus setting their careers on fire and joining up with political opponents, watch as nearly every one of them decides that putting up with the loudmouths and the unfairness of it all is the lesser evil. Some will protest for a bit. Tony Gonzales, for example, already has, and some others will follow. But it won't last, because they know they're better off putting up with bad Republican deals than in bucking more than feebly against the movement.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:00
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Pendragon posted:While this far no doubt exists among Republicans, it doesn’t seem to be affecting support for McCarthy. If all Republicans truly feared Fox News, they wouldn’t have nominated McCarthy to begin with since he’s the epitome of the swamp (despite kissing Trump’s ring, great example of how a mob isn’t reasonable as you point out). Maybe a combination of McCarthy’s “NO IT’S MY TURN MAKE ME THE SPEAKER” and trying to appease the mob? Major Fox News figures, with Tucker Carlson as the exception, have been calling this Speaker fight out as nonsense and saying, guys, McCarthy is more than good enough, he'll fight for what we want, there's no one you can nominate who can get more than 20 votes, shut up and elect him already? TRUMP gave McCarthy a mid-clusterfuck endorsement. Marge was on the phone trying to get Rosendale to listen to Trump personally on the phone during last night's shitstorm. Part of it is that McCarthy is greedy and masochistic enough to want the job, and few others would want to even get near it under these circumstances. Right-wing media is not in total lockstep; it has its splinters. The right-wing cycle (step further to the right, scream loudly, repeat) can happen at different speeds. Outlets like Newsmax and OANN, blogs, websites, social media clusters, talk radio C-listers break with the Fox empire because there are hordes of people out there who don't want gradual change in a conservative direction; they want power and money and influence and control, they want it NOW, they're being told that it should be theirs NOW, they're entitled to it NOW, and they're viewing anyone who's not giving it to them now, left or center or right, as the problem. The craziest are also generally the loudest in any social situation. There aren't nearly as many full-blown Dominionists and overt white supremacists and when-do-we-get-to-use-the-guns wackaloons as they think there are, but the Internet makes it easy for them to find each other and believe in the illusion of their collective strength. The 'mainstream' right knows this, and views the ultra-right as useful idiots to be farmed and utilized. The problem comes, as has been creeping along for decades, when the useful idiots start actually seizing positions of power and declaring the old guard the enemy.
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Jan 7, 2023 17:25
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Google Jeb Bush posted:I'm not saying it's likely, but at this point I'd be completely unsurprised if he faked his district residency, US citizenship, and/or not having murdered the original George Santos and stolen his identity Given the usual levels of projection at play, by the end of the week someone will accuse Pelosi of having smuggled Santos into the country thinking that he'd be one more reliable non-white vote in her quest to kickstart the Great Replacement.
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Jan 7, 2023 23:25
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