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I don't see either side budging, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's no resolution tomorrow either
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Jan 3, 2023 23:37
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No one in the HFC is going to budge, and the "Nobody But Kevin" crowd isn't going to move. An unstoppable force meets an unmovable object in this scenario. The way I see it is this only ends with Kevin McCarthy seeing the writing on the wall and stepping aside for the good of the conference. So basically this will never end.
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Jan 4, 2023 06:12
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If 20 members continue to vote against McCarthy and 10 members vote present (which lowers the threshold by five iirc) then Jeffries would still be in the lead and one vote short so I fail to see what that strategy accomplishes except for putting Jeffries within one vote of the speaker's chair, and I could absolutely see one R voting for him just to mess with the entire conference Would it be career suicide? Sure, but it'd also be absolutely hilarious to have the first female speaker succeeded by the first Black speaker who isn't even part of the majority party
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Jan 4, 2023 06:38
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I can't see how even this court could look at the Constitution and say "oh yeah it means only members" The literal wording is "the House shall chuse its speaker". Could be a ham sandwich or a three month old baby for all anyone's concerned. There's absolutely no qualifications for it whatsoever
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Jan 4, 2023 15:07
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Piell posted:Republicans voters don't want bipartisanship, even in purple states there is a solid core of chuds that you need to win in order to win your primary Yeah "the base" as defined as the hardest of the hardcore is at least ~30% of your Republican primary voters, and if they're activated against you it's very, very difficult to win
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Jan 4, 2023 15:14
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cr0y posted:I could be completely wrong but Trump seems to be getting more and more toxic to the Republican party by the day and I think the more moderate flanks don't want their names in any way attached to voting for one of Trump's "guys". This is exactly correct. Even the MAGA crew is moving on because they realize they can find someone else to take up the mantle without being so toxic to suburbanites
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Jan 4, 2023 15:52
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Piell posted:12 eastern From Punchbowl News, they're saying that Republicans may try to adjourn until tomorrow but Dems are whipping against it: quote:“It seems possible that House Republican leadership may try to avoid a speaker vote today and adjourn until either later today or Thursday.”
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Jan 4, 2023 16:44
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This can't go on past July or we risk a default, and I'm not sure even Republicans would let it go past another week or so. This is insanely embarrassing for them.
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Jan 4, 2023 16:49
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Punchbowl News just confirmed they're gonna gavel in and then the Republicans are going to make a motion to adjourn Going to be interesting to see if they can carry it by themselves
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Jan 4, 2023 17:15
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Mooseontheloose posted:I mean, the mainstream Republican party is hoping to force a default and think Biden will cave into their demands to (regressive insanity goes here). I think if it came to it Biden needs to basically have a public address to the nation and say "Owing to the debt clause of the 14th Amendment, we will continue to honor all debts made by the United States to our creditors" or something. I know the debt limit is law but also the 14th debt clause supercedes it and it's never been tested judicially
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Jan 4, 2023 17:29
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Wait I thought the debt limit was an actual policy enacted in the 10s? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling Or is there a difference between the limit and ceiling?
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Jan 4, 2023 17:40
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At this point the HFC is looking to humiliate McCarthy because he's gonna slowly bleed support with each successive vote
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Jan 4, 2023 18:08
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Youth Decay posted:Gaetz still acting like a child Assuming no more members join and all Dems are there that's 434 - 351 = 41.5 missing which means ~20 vote lower threshold which means Speaker Jeffries
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Jan 4, 2023 18:13
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Piell posted:Pretty sure it's just people being late, but we'll see Yeah it is but a man can dream!
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Jan 4, 2023 18:14
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Kammat posted:Roy is part of the nutjob contingent I assume? He was Ted Cruz's Chief of Staff before being elected iirc
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Jan 4, 2023 18:31
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Kevin is never going to give this up and the HFC is never going to back down so again, I ask my friends on the other side: what in God's name is the endgame gonna be?
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Jan 4, 2023 18:38
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toget posted:There's one vote missing as well as the present-vote, right? The CSPAN-tally adds up to 434. VA-4: Donald McEachin died but there's no speaker to accept the certificate of election for his successor
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Jan 4, 2023 19:34
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Youth Decay posted:Well we haven't actually had the election yet either. It'll be Jennifer McLellan though. Oh whoops! I thought the election already happened but I was thinking the primary
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Jan 4, 2023 19:56
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And now we're heading towards vote six. This is a farce at this point
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Jan 4, 2023 20:05
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Scalise, Perry and Gaetz are talking right now. To be a fly on that chair!
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Jan 4, 2023 20:42
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The Glumslinger posted:A fun thing that was mentioned is that normally the House rules prevent C-Span from doing all of these close-ups on the negotiations in the benches in between votes, but because there isn't a speaker yet, the rules package hasn't been passed yet, so the camera operators can show whatever they want I never knew this! I love the CSPAN camera operator now
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Jan 4, 2023 20:47
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No vote tonight; talks are progressing https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1610798200310624256?cxt=HHwWgMDT5bib2tosAAAA
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Jan 5, 2023 01:43
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Matt's a hell of a reporter so I trust his gut on this. It also feels like the conservatives are making outrageous demands that McCarthy immediately accepts to prove the point that he has no principles and will do anything for the gavel.
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Jan 5, 2023 14:49
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Raenir Salazar posted:Could they get a procedural ruling from the clerk to attempt to switch the vote to some kind of Ranked Voting with Instant Runoff? That might still not get to 218 but might speed up the process. Someone could make a motion for it but it'd have to be accepted by a majority of the house and I'm not sure they'd take it. You'd also have to lay down the rules for that particular change, which I presume would also be part of that vote You can't necessarily say "I move to have the nomination vote be decided by ranked choice voting" because there's no parliamentary mechanism for that
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Jan 5, 2023 15:00
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I don't get why Spartz is waiting until the very end to vote present I know she has a Senate primary coming up but it's a weird tactic since literally no one cares about this in the primary (probably)
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Jan 5, 2023 21:12
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skylined! posted:I don't think Scalise can also win a vote, and he probably doesn't share Mccarthy's apparent humiliation fetish. Turns out David Duke without the baggage probably has some baggage. Even those who like Scalise don't think he could win a vote, and Scalise isn't going to move against McCarthy because he's heir apparent and if by some act of Satan Kevin actually wins he's not gonna want to get removed as Majority Leader for all of a sudden going against him in the speakers race If McCarthy drops though, different issue
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Jan 6, 2023 15:11
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Herstory Begins Now posted:idk how much dems would even want control of this shitshow if it came to that beyond out of a general desire to keep republicans out of control. Oh they would want it for a number of reasons: 1) it's humiliating to the Republicans 2) you can get more for Biden's agenda 3) it strengthens the President's hand ahead of 2024 4) it stops the dumb investigations into Hunter's Hog and other stupid stuff that the Republicans so desperately want for some reason So yeah, I think they'd take it if it came down to that
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Jan 6, 2023 15:49
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Piell posted:https://twitter.com/KateSullivanDC/status/1611627487712219136 I mean if they're already threatening to lay hands on each other over a speaker's vote I can't imagine what will happen when votes of consequence come around
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Jan 7, 2023 14:40
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Archonex posted:The thought is that Mccarthy, snake that he is, most likely stole Rogers position on the armed forces committee to give to that creepster Gaetz* or someone else in his anti american anti government faction. If that's the case this is going to be absolutely ugly
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Jan 7, 2023 15:12
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